Invasion of Ukraine

[sovereignstar v2]

Fucking tennis

Woman says she was asked to leave Western & Southern Open for wearing Ukraine flag | WKRC

[Edward64]

Interesting and somewhat depressing collection of YT videos of captured Russians being interviewed (interrogated like in a talk show), and some calling home.

Some of the translated sub-titles don't make sense (to me) but you'll get the idea.

Zolkin Volodymyr - YouTube

[Edward64]

Hey, the CIA got it right!

And the Ukrainians didn't believe it.

Russia’s spies misread Ukraine and misled Kremlin as war loomed

On Jan. 12, CIA Director William J. Burns arrived in Kyiv with a detailed dossier on Russia’s plans and a team of accompanying U.S. officials who sought to convince Zelensky and his inner circle that war was imminent.

Yet when the CIA team departed, Ukraine’s spy chiefs gathered with Zelensky to deliver a follow-on briefing that was far more equivocal.

“We relayed all the information that the Americans had shared without any changes,” said a participant. But at the same time, the official said, “our information said that the Russians are not planning war” on such a large scale, and that judgment was given equal weight alongside the CIA warnings.

The final weeks before the invasion were punctuated by a flurry of contradictory intelligence reports and confusing signals from European officials.

[NobodyHere]

That's a shame

Car blast kills daughter of Russian known as 'Putin's brain'

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

That's a shame

Car blast kills daughter of Russian known as 'Putin's brain'

And it gets more interesting

Russian partisans claim responsibility for assassination of Kremlin propagandist Daria Dugina

Are the Russian people finally fed up enough with Putin to overthrow him?

[Edward64]

I haven't seen this in our MSM so no idea if legit.

But if it is, wonder why Erdogan would say this publicly, what does he get out of it? He's already gotten kudos, creds etc. in helping with the grain shipments so this would seem to unnecessarily antagonize Russia.

Erdogan: Return of Crimea to Ukraine a requirement under international law

Türkiye supports Ukraine's territorial integrity and rejects the illegal annexation of Crimea, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said.

"The return of Crimea to Ukraine, of which it is an inseparable part, is essentially a requirement of international law," Erdogan said in a video message to the Second Crimea Platform Summit on Tuesday.

The Crimea Platform is an international coordination mechanism of Ukraine to draw more global attention to Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Erdogan said Ankara will continue to support the Crimean Platform that was established to resolve the Crimean issue through peaceful means.

"Türkiye does not recognise the annexation of Crimea and has been openly stating since the first day that this step is illegitimate and illegal. This is a principled stance that has not only legal but also moral foundations," he said.

[GrantDawg]

Erdogan was playing Russia off the US in Syria. It is interesting that Turkey has largely been supportive of the defense of Ukraine, even sending in equipment. Turkey is a hard read.

[sterlingice]

I think it's fairly simple - Turkey does not like Russia and views them as a political rival in their regional sphere of influence. Ukraine is much less of a threat. If Russia is relegated to ports like Sochi or Rostov-on-Don, then Turkey is the dominant power in the Black Sea. But if you hand Russia Sevastopol and other smaller Crimean ports, then Turkish interests are much less secure.

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I haven't seen this in our MSM so no idea if legit.

But if it is, wonder why Erdogan would say this publicly, what does he get out of it? He's already gotten kudos, creds etc. in helping with the grain shipments so this would seem to unnecessarily antagonize Russia.

Erdogan: Return of Crimea to Ukraine a requirement under international law

I see it on CNN now, so guess it was for real.

[bhlloy]

He’s also got a nice indirect win over the PKK out of siding with NATO already, which is huge for him domestically.

I think he’s got regional interest in not seeing a resurgent Russia with territory on the Black Sea and a puppet Ukraine for sure, but he also knows he can get nice concessions from the US and allies for being the one who can play at the edges and then needs to be brought back online. And in the back of Putin’s mind I’m sure he sees him as the one in NATO he can go to if he pushes shit too far, so I doubt he minds too much either.

[Edward64]

Looks like there is a major offensive to retake Kherson. It would be fantastic if the Russians are pushed back. Nice to see Ukraine taking the initiative but is it too much of a gamble right now? Hopefully, NATO has helped them assess and support this push.

Ukraine war: Kyiv claims breakthrough in major new Kherson offensive | Euronews

Ukrainian forces claimed to have 'broken through' Russian defences on Monday amid a new counter-offensive in the Kherson region.

The operation, launched yesterday, is aimed at pushing Russian troops back across the Dnipro river and retaking the occupied city of Kherson.

Intense battles are currently raging between Ukrainian and Russian forces across almost all of the southern region, according to the Ukrainian presidency.

Ukrainian forces broke through Russia's first line of defence on the outskirts of Kherson, capturing an industrial site reportedly being used as an army base, Ukrainian local media reported on Monday.

Speaking to CNN in the evening, an anonymous source within the Ukrainian military said its forces had also recaptured four villages in Kherson Oblast.


Russia's military claims that it successfully repelled an offensive by Ukrainian troops, who suffered "heavy losses" as a result.

Euronews cannot independently verify either of these claims.

[Edward64]

Slovakia is part of NATO. Earlier this year US/NATO nixed plans for Poland to send Migs to Ukraine. My understanding is we've sent parts but not planes. Calculus will change after 6 months, and this doesn't seem to be as significant of an escalation (as earlier) as we've already provided tons of MANPADs and HIMARs.

Slovakia's neighbours to patrol its skies, freeing MiG jets for Ukraine | Reuters

Slovakia signed a deal on Saturday under which fellow NATO states the Czech Republic and Poland will police its skies as Bratislava withdraws its Soviet-made MiG-29s from service, potentially freeing up the old jets to send to Ukraine.

Slovakia has said it is ready to send the 11 MiG fighters to Ukraine, whose military has long relied on Soviet-era equipment and which has appealed for more supplies from NATO nations to boost its ability to battle invading Russian forces.

[Edward64]

Nice! Saw this quote and had to check.

HIMARS manufacturer Lockheed Martin recently published a poll asking respondents to vote on the “coolest thing made in Arkansas,” where it makes the launchers in the city of Camden. That prompted the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense to reply that HIMARS gets its vote, saying “If our word on how cool HIMARS is is not enough for you, go ask the Russians.”

Sure enough, HIMARS are made in Hog country.

The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) is a light multiple rocket launcher ... produced by Lockheed Martin Missiles & Fire Control in Camden, Arkansas.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Looks like there is a major offensive to retake Kherson. It would be fantastic if the Russians are pushed back. Nice to see Ukraine taking the initiative but is it too much of a gamble right now? Hopefully, NATO has helped them assess and support this push.

Ukraine war: Kyiv claims breakthrough in major new Kherson offensive | Euronews

Looks like some progress has been made on the offensive.

“We are very sensitive to not getting ahead of the Ukrainians,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during an August 31 media briefing. “I think you’ve heard some of their public statements, not the least of which is their president, talking about the need for operational security.”

“What I will say is that we are aware of Ukrainian military operations that have made some forward movement and in some cases in the Kherson region … Russian units are falling back.”

[Edward64]

Article on how (and why) the US is more upfront on providing additional more/types of weapons. Basically, we are not as worried about Russian reactions now.

Why the US is becoming more brazen with its Ukraine support | The Hill

The Biden administration is arming Ukraine with weapons that can do serious damage to Russian forces, and, unlike early in the war, U.S. officials don’t appear worried about Moscow’s reaction.
:
The clear support is a far cry from the early days of the war, when the U.S. government seemed hesitant to list exactly what was being sent into Ukraine so as not to tip off or draw the ire of Moscow.

But that’s changed thanks to a struggling Kremlin that has failed to follow through with its threats.

“Over time, the administration has recognized that they can provide larger, more capable, longer-distance, heavier weapons to the Ukrainians and the Russians have not reacted,” former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor told The Hill.

Instead, the battle morphed into a conventional conflict, whereas a large mass of combined forces on one side is fighting large mass of forces on the other.

“To engage in that kind of campaign you need a much wider array of weaponry — you need artillery, you need drones, you need various other forms of heavy weaponry like anti-ship missiles. … What’s changing isn’t so much the administration’s willingness to talk about what it’s giving but the nature of the weapons it’s actually giving,” Sales said.

[GrantDawg]

Russia has shut down their natural gas pipline, on the same day that OPEC+ has announced a large scale reduction in the production of oil to increase oil prices.

[Edward64]

I understand Russia shutting down the natural gas pipeline. This is war and the "allies" have done near everything but put boots on the ground. I guess this is Putin's way to really put the screws to western Europe in the upcoming winter and also their markets/economies.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Russia has shut down their natural gas pipline, on the same day that OPEC+ has announced a large scale reduction in the production of oil to increase oil prices.

True. But it is also them using their money play way before the 4th quarter due to desperation, so to speak. It was the main pressure tool, aided by uncertainty (will they or won't they?) and now they have put out into the open that the only way to get Gas from them is to (entirely) roll back restrictions. Cool. Good to know. Might as well go for broke then.

Also: While surely more expensive, Germany for example is ahead of schedule in filling up gas reservoirs for the Winter. In other countries Russia mainly benefits from additional ineptitude and ideological dead ends (hello France. Btw take a guess who produces the most 'fuel rods', might be the wrong term, for european nuclear reactors ... ). Not that Germany hasn't fucked up regarding dependency from Russia, of course.

[Edward64]

Article goes deeper on chips/parts the Russians are looking for and the China factor.

It's come up before if the US is depleting its arms-to-Ukraine faster than it can replace them. From what I've read it's "no" as the US has such a large arsenal and domestic military arms complex. I do wonder about the other NATO/EU countries supply also.

The chips are down: Putin scrambles for high-tech parts as his arsenal goes up in smoke – POLITICO

It's the microchips that look set to get Vladimir Putin in the end. Six months into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is being throttled by a severe technology deficit inflicted by sanctions.

Having fired off (or lost in combat) way more of their missile firepower than they originally anticipated, Moscow's soldiers are now increasingly relying on ancient stocks of primitive Soviet-era munitions while Western-armed Ukrainian forces are battling to turn the tide in a southern counteroffensive with pinpoint strikes on munition dumps and key infrastructure such as bridges.

Kyiv is acutely aware that the outcome of the war is likely to hinge on whether Russia finds a way to regain access to high-tech chips, and is out to ensure it doesn't get them. In order to flag the danger, Ukraine is sending out international warnings that the Kremlin has drawn up shopping lists of semiconductors, transformers, connectors, casings, transistors, insulators and other components, most made by companies in the U.S., Germany, the Netherlands, the U.K., Taiwan and Japan, among others, which it needs to fuel its war effort.

The message is clear: Don't let the Russians get their hands on this gadgetry

Of the 25 items Russia is seeking most desperately, almost all are microchips manufactured by U.S. firms Marvell, Intel, Holt, ISSI, Microchip, Micron, Broadcom and Texas Instruments. Rounding out the list are chips by Japanese firm Renesas, which acquired the U.S.-based IDT; Germany's Infineon, which acquired U.S.-based Cypress; microcircuits by American firm Vicor; and connectors by U.S. firm AirBorn. Some of the items can be easily found in online electronics retailers, while others have been out of stock for months as a result of the global microchip shortage.

The cheapest item on the top priority list, the 88E1322-AO-BAM2I000 gigabit ethernet transceiver made by Marvell, can apparently be sourced by Moscow for 430.83 rubles a piece, or around €7. The most expensive item, a 10M04DCF256I7G field programmable gate array made by Intel, can be sourced at a highly inflated 66,815.77 rubles or €1,107 each, according to the list (before the chips shortage, it would have cost under €20).

[Edward64]

And further evidence, just read from CNN

Russia buying weaponry from North Korea: Moscow is in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from Pyongyang for use on the battlefield in Ukraine, a US official told CNN. The purchase indicates that the Russian military continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine, due in part to export controls and sanctions, according to the official.

[PilotMan]

If the US pulled something like this in a conflict we started we'd be laughed off the planet.

[Edward64]

I appreciate what Putin is going through. When I'm playing Civ 6 and find out I don't have deposits of Iron ore or Niter in my territories, I pretty much re-start unless I'm just booming. Can't trade reliably

[NobodyHere]

Pensioner 'shot down £74,000,000 Russian jet over his home with antique rifle'

Not sure if I believe this one but awesome if its true.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Pensioner 'shot down £74,000,000 Russian jet over his home with antique rifle'

Not sure if I believe this one but awesome if its true.

I saw that. I saw a pic of him with a shotgun, it's unbelievable.

[whomario]

So ... There's a crazy dude here (who happens to be the Ex-husband of one of the most depraved politicians who is trying haaard to bring the horseshoe theory by being in the most left wing party with positions that are essentially GOP style) who is campaigning as the self-anointed "Chancellor of the exile government of Germany" and, now the real crazy part, is actually getting meetings with high russian officials including the chief of Gazprom Germany and the official spokesperson of both the Kreml and Lawrow.

[JPhillips]

Holy shit this has been a disaster for Russia.

I am utterly flabbergasted.

Russia's defeat here is like the US Army losing General Omar Bradley during the Nazi Ardennes offensive in Dec 1944 and the Nazi's reaching Antwerp.

Now we know why Russian high command has been so slow in responding to the Ukrainian offensive.
1/2 https://t.co/1PmIZq8B5F

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) September 8, 2022

[sovereignstar v2]

Any confirmation cause the Twitter thread is half full of people thinking its not him and not even the same rank

[Edward64]

I read the same. It would be fantastic if it is him.

It does seem Ukraine is making gains on their counter offensive to the east. Hard to tell how "real" it is though.

Supposedly $15B so far. But I've seen another estimate at $50B. It's probably somewhere in-between. If it truly is $15B, it's a well spent $15B. Anyone know if there is a running total for all the Allies?

US Sending New Security Assistance to Ukraine, 18 Other European Countries

Overall, the new U.S. assistance would bring its Ukraine-related aid total to $15.2 billion since Biden took office in January last year. The $675 million in military assistance includes heavy weaponry, ammunition and armored vehicles.

[Edward64]

From msn, so take it FWIW.

Article talks about multiple Russian spokesmen/personalities/bloggers being negative on the Ukrainian counteroffensive. This implies that Ukraine really is doing well.

Team Putin Admits Their Worst Case Scenario Is Coming True

With state TV studios full of doom and gloom, prominent pundits and experts seem to be preparing Russian audiences for future losses of occupied Ukrainian lands, which are being painstakingly reclaimed by the Ukrainian military. During Wednesday’s broadcast of the state TV show 60 Minutes, host Evgeny Popov said: “We wish courage to our warriors, who are indeed doing very important work, they are resisting an enormous horde that has been trained in the West.”

Here's a compilation of Russian news talk about the situation. There does seem to be a consensus that Ukrainian offensive is serious.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkrai...icked_kremlin/

[JPhillips]

Hard to know how successful these assaults are while they are still in progress, but it does seem that Ukraine completely fooled Russia into moving troops to the south and now the northern offensive may have completely broken through Russian lines. There are lots of pictures coming in of captured equipment and supplies.

[Ksyrup]

I saw a few tweets to the effect that Russia is retreating so quickly Ukraine can't advance fast enough to fully secure certain areas yet, but they appear to be abandoned.

[Groundhog]

All those clips seem to me to be doing is laying the groundwork for Russian citizens re: a pending escalation of violence/tactics.

[GrantDawg]

Anyone that has played Hearts of Iron is getting excited by this pic.

The Ukrainian Army is about to close the Izyum Pocket.

Thousands of Russian soldiers will be killed or captured. pic.twitter.com/LqoMH53kZt

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 9, 2022

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Anyone that has played Hearts of Iron is getting excited by this pic.

Fantastic graphic (if accurate).

Congrats on playing HOI. I've always been intimidated by reading how hard it was.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Fantastic graphic (if accurate).

Congrats on playing HOI. I've always been intimidated by reading how hard it was.

It is more of a time consumer than hard. Base game is complicated, but not that hard to beat. If you get a mod, like Black Ice for AI improvements then it will kick your butt.

[Edward64]

Creative trolling ...

[Edward64]

Looks as if the map/encirclement is true per "western defense officials".

Ukraine breaks through front line in east, nearing key town - POLITICO

Western defense officials and analysts on Saturday said they believed Ukraine had punched through Russian front lines south of the country’s second-largest city, taking thousands of square miles of territory and threatening to cut off Russian supply lines.

The British Defense Ministry in an online briefing said it believed the Ukrainians had advanced as much as 30 miles in the advance south of Kharkiv, northeastern Ukraine.

The advance appears to be around Izyum, long a focus on the Russian front line and the site of heavy artillery and other fighting. The British described Russian forces around Izyum as “increasingly isolated.”

The Institute for the Study of War said in a report that it appeared that “disorganized Russian forces (were) caught in the rapid Ukrainian advance.” They cited social media images of apparent Russian prisoners seized in the advance around Izyum and surrounding towns.

The same report said that Ukrainian forces “may collapse Russian positions around Izyum if they sever Russian ground lines of communication” north and south of the town.

[JPhillips]

Now the Russians are acknowledging the extent of the collapse, although also trying to claim that this is just a regrouping.

Oh wow. Russian Defense Ministry now acknowledging the retreat, calling it “regrouping.”
“In order to achieve goals of the special military operation…a decision was made to regroup the Russian troops stationed in Balakliya and Izyum to step up efforts in the Donetsk direction.”

— Mary Ilyushina (@maryilyushina) September 10, 2022

[JPhillips]

dola

Reports are coming out that armor has been deployed in Moscow. I can't imagine Putin being overthrown, but perhaps he's nervous.

[GrantDawg]

I think he is always nervous. Couple more Russian leaders going to fly out of windows in the next few days.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

There's been numerous videos showing Ukrainian drones dropping small explosives/grenades on infantry.

Seems like drones of all sorts will be the future of warfare. I assume we have good countermeasures for the bigger drones. Hope we have good countermeasures for the smaller ones too.

[PilotMan]

The future is fully autonomous drone warfare, and when it becomes the norm wars will never end because drones are cheap and deadly and drone swarms will be sudden and crippling. I fear that time. It's 1984 fully realized and the violence will be everywhere.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

The future is fully autonomous drone warfare, and when it becomes the norm wars will never end because drones are cheap and deadly and drone swarms will be sudden and crippling. I fear that time. It's 1984 fully realized and the violence will be everywhere.

I remember seeing the drone display at the Beijing Oympics and the movie "Angel has Fallen". I can see a version of those just swarming enemies and dropping whatever or having small caliber munitions.

The US better bring in drone/chip materials in house or with close allies.

[Edward64]

Funny.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Seems like drones of all sorts will be the future of warfare. I assume we have good countermeasures for the bigger drones. Hope we have good countermeasures for the smaller ones too.

The smaller drones aren't much danger for a well equipped and prepared military. There are weapons that can be used on the ground from a couple kilometers away that shoot radio waves that sever the drone's connection.

[JPhillips]

I still have no clue how the Russians thought they could ever control Ukraine.

Zelensky’s address to Russians pic.twitter.com/N1hJgiO7Tu

— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) September 11, 2022

[Edward64]

Russian talk show with subtitles. Essentially, there is now questioning of the special operation. Watch the first 2 min and you'll get the idea.

My guess is he'll end up in a hospital on floor 4+

[Groundhog]

It's interesting seeing the thinly veiled threats thrown at various speakers in all these clips when they go too far. Quite an ending to that last clip though, wow.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The smaller drones aren't much danger for a well equipped and prepared military. There are weapons that can be used on the ground from a couple kilometers away that shoot radio waves that sever the drone's connection.

It also kinda turns into a cyber/tech war at that point. Even during this conflict we've seen most drones are bought off the shelf and can be taken offline from any sort of guidance mechanism by the company flipping a switch, so we'll see if any state starts producing them en masse. We did see the US military have no great answer to "dumb" drones, but they were also pretty avoidable for actual military people while being pretty impossible to stop if it was targeting civilians.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

It's interesting seeing the thinly veiled threats thrown at various speakers in all these clips when they go too far. Quite an ending to that last clip though, wow.

Yup, I fast forward some and then to the end. I wish it had his reply/response about his 10-11 year old kid.

I'm assuming these type of "why are we doing this" interviews didn't happen until recently. And to allow this questioning/dissent to be seen by regular Russians.

I think a military general/FSB coup (for self-preservation) has ticked up some.