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Old 01-29-2010, 03:58 PM   #951
MartinD
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Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: East Lothian, Scotland
Vote count at post 950:

RendeR - 4: Autumn (917), CrimsonFox (918), PurdueBrad (922), The Jackal (936)
spleen1015 - 1: Poli (920)
Poli - 4: J23 (943), spleen1015 (945), RendeR (947), MartinD (950)
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Old 01-29-2010, 03:59 PM   #952
MartinD
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Just noticed that both RendeR and Poli have said that they'll be out for the rest of the day (in the posts since I started what ended up as #950) - do we really want a run-off between two guys who aren't going to be around?
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:01 PM   #953
spleen1015
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No votes yet from KWhit or Schmidty.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:04 PM   #954
spleen1015
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Is there any interest at all in trying to catch the Warlock again?
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:07 PM   #955
J23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spleen1015 View Post
Is there any interest at all in trying to catch the Warlock again?

Maybe tomorrow, depending on how tonight's lych/NK go I'd be up for it. With Render and Poli gone (missed he was out for the day unfortunately), I would advise against trying to get something worked out at this point.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:08 PM   #956
Poli
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Metagamish as it might be, I won't move my vote to Dubb/render. I don't believe for one second Dubb would give up a wolf role. Dubb and I lived for the wolf roles in the past...so I just can't see that happening.

Then again, dubb's forte is to zig when we think he is zagging.

So, come what may. I'll never bow down, though I may be saved from the fire. I won't be moving my vote.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:11 PM   #957
Poli
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spleen1015 View Post
Is there any interest at all in trying to catch the Warlock again?

I would have to say yes, but the plan has to be initiated
immediately after the nite actions...those of us onboard with that plan need to provide the ones just skimming the thread (like I think schmidty is likely doing) the knowledge that the plan is in effect and any resistance
against the plan will be dealt with like realdeal.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:15 PM   #958
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There is a workable one for today that would be pretty easy to get done that I think would work if everyone went with it.

It might be a bad idea, because other than the Day 1 lynch, we haven't had much luck. If we did it and the wolves didn't want to follow, costing us another villager today, we may not be able to catch up then.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:16 PM   #959
spleen1015
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I'll just put this out there and see what the response is.

I know we've had a lot of debate about trying to catch the warlock, but we can do that today if both Kwhit and Schmidty both vote for me.

If they do and I die, then we know the Warlock is one of the 3 people who voted for me. If one of those 3 isn't the Warlock, then he has to be on one of the other 2 and which ever one he's on would die.

I am willing to be sacrificed in order for that to happen. KWhit and Schmidty, vote for me if you're a villager.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:17 PM   #960
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I phrased that last statement wrong.

I think Kwhit and Schmidty should vote for me as a sign they are villagers.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:19 PM   #961
J23
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I will do my best to be around tonight if I need to move my vote to keep things close.

With 18 people in the game, do we think it's likely 4 wolves? That would mean we're down to 3 wolves out of 11 players left. If we miss a wolf this time, we're down to 6-3 tomorrow, and the brutal wolf is still out there (potentially). We really could use a good lynch tonight.

Operating under the assumption that we have 3 wolves left, the day 1 votes are definately worth closer examination:

-If none of the wolves were on DV, that would mean our 3 wolves would be among Spleen, Dubb, Poli and Jackal(who did not vote).

-If one wolf was on DV, I'm thinking it would have to be someone who got on fairly early, but was trapped when it turned into a run-off. That would still mean that we'd have 2 wolves in the above group, meaning that we're 50% on a blind guess to get the wolf in a lynch tonight (provided the run-off stays how it is now).

-It's possible that two wolves were on DV, but as the cunning, I find it unlikely enough that I'm not going to really look at the possibility atm.


At some point this weekend, I will try to examine the timing of the votes on DV and try to figure out who cast votes on him when it mattered as opposed to when it seemed harmless. If I'm NK'd (or lynched by some crazy vote swing), I'd encourage someone else to look into this, especially if we don't have more information from a good lynch tonight.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:21 PM   #962
J23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spleen1015 View Post
I phrased that last statement wrong.

I think Kwhit and Schmidty should vote for me as a sign they are villagers.

We already know that Schmidty is not the warlock by the day 2 lynch result.

I think at this point, we're better off picking who we think is a wolf and saving the coordinated vote for a warlock for Monday. That way we have the weekend to work out the details, arguements and whatnot.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:22 PM   #963
Poli
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Wouldn't that just create another tie? It would be Interesting...I say that because it would mean that schmidty or kwhit was the warlock...and that in turn would ruin my entire world.

As is, were in a deadlock between me and render. I know I'm not the warlock...so if kwhit votes render and schmidty votes
me...we will know which group the warlock resides in
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:22 PM   #964
spleen1015
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J23 View Post
I will do my best to be around tonight if I need to move my vote to keep things close.

With 18 people in the game, do we think it's likely 4 wolves? That would mean we're down to 3 wolves out of 11 players left. If we miss a wolf this time, we're down to 6-3 tomorrow, and the brutal wolf is still out there (potentially). We really could use a good lynch tonight.

Operating under the assumption that we have 3 wolves left, the day 1 votes are definately worth closer examination:

-If none of the wolves were on DV, that would mean our 3 wolves would be among Spleen, Dubb, Poli and Jackal(who did not vote).

-If one wolf was on DV, I'm thinking it would have to be someone who got on fairly early, but was trapped when it turned into a run-off. That would still mean that we'd have 2 wolves in the above group, meaning that we're 50% on a blind guess to get the wolf in a lynch tonight (provided the run-off stays how it is now).

-It's possible that two wolves were on DV, but as the cunning, I find it unlikely enough that I'm not going to really look at the possibility atm.


At some point this weekend, I will try to examine the timing of the votes on DV and try to figure out who cast votes on him when it mattered as opposed to when it seemed harmless. If I'm NK'd (or lynched by some crazy vote swing), I'd encourage someone else to look into this, especially if we don't have more information from a good lynch tonight.

This is some pretty good analysis to me. I don't see a wolf offering up this type of info.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:24 PM   #965
Poli
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I had forgot we knew that schmidty wasn't the warlock...though I'd further assume he doesn't have a role at all.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:26 PM   #966
Poli
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Honestly I'd wager one or two of the wolves
were on DV. I guarantee if I was a wolf I would have been in
order to try and gain some CoT.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:31 PM   #967
J23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poli View Post
Wouldn't that just create another tie? It would be Interesting...I say that because it would mean that schmidty or kwhit was the warlock...and that in turn would ruin my entire world.

As is, were in a deadlock between me and render. I know I'm not the warlock...so if kwhit votes render and schmidty votes
me...we will know which group the warlock resides in

I'm not sure that narrowing the warlock down to 1 of 4 or 5 people is helpful enough at this point. Our numbers are dropping and we're not even sure the warlock role is in the game. I'd much rather wait for the weekend to figure out which way to take than try to pull something off tonight.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:37 PM   #968
Poli
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In a game like this, if there isn't a warlock I'll eat
my shoe.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:38 PM   #969
J23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poli View Post
Honestly I'd wager one or two of the wolves
were on DV. I guarantee if I was a wolf I would have been in
order to try and gain some CoT.

Yeah, if I had to guess, I'd say 1 wolf was on DV. I'd be surprised if 2 of them were on him though with him being the cunning.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:43 PM   #970
MartinD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J23 View Post
We already know that Schmidty is not the warlock by the day 2 lynch result.

Are you sure? I was under the impression that it was spleen1015 and RendeR who had been 'cleared' (of warlockhood, at least - not of potential wolfishness) by the day 2 vote, because of their votes for Schmidty...
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:48 PM   #971
J23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinD View Post
Are you sure? I was under the impression that it was spleen1015 and RendeR who had been 'cleared' (of warlockhood, at least - not of potential wolfishness) by the day 2 vote, because of their votes for Schmidty...

You are correct. Thanks for catching that.
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Old 01-29-2010, 04:58 PM   #972
Schmidty
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Originally Posted by Poli View Post
I had forgot we knew that schmidty wasn't the warlock...though I'd further assume he doesn't have a role at all.

You are correct, and as I said before, it's hard for me to be engaged in a game when I am. That, coupled with a very busy week, is why I've been so quiet.
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Old 01-29-2010, 05:07 PM   #973
KWhit
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Just caught up. Been a busy day (and week for that matter). Let me respond to a few things.
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Old 01-29-2010, 05:12 PM   #974
KWhit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J23 View Post
dola-

I ask because it seems he's doing less analysis than I remember him doing in previous games. He and PB both for that matter seem less active than I remember them typically being

Yeah, I've been more busy during this game than last game. I'm working on a writing project that I've told myself HAS to be done by the end of January, so I've been focusing more on that than usual.
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Old 01-29-2010, 05:15 PM   #975
KWhit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spleen1015 View Post
I'll just put this out there and see what the response is.

I know we've had a lot of debate about trying to catch the warlock, but we can do that today if both Kwhit and Schmidty both vote for me.

If they do and I die, then we know the Warlock is one of the 3 people who voted for me. If one of those 3 isn't the Warlock, then he has to be on one of the other 2 and which ever one he's on would die.

I am willing to be sacrificed in order for that to happen. KWhit and Schmidty, vote for me if you're a villager.

I might be willing to do that.

I want to look over some vote history between now and deadline, but at least for now:

VOTE SPLEEN
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Old 01-29-2010, 05:16 PM   #976
KWhit
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RendeR - 4: Autumn (917), CrimsonFox (918), PurdueBrad (922), The Jackal (936)
spleen1015 - 2: Poli (920), KWhit (975)
Poli - 4: J23 (943), spleen1015 (945), RendeR (947), MartinD (950)

I think this is correct.
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Old 01-29-2010, 05:22 PM   #977
Schmidty
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Vote Spleen
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Old 01-29-2010, 05:37 PM   #978
KWhit
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Quote:
Day One Votes

(70) saldana votes dubb93 (dubb93 1)
(74) spleen1015 votes saldana (dubb93 1, saldana 1)
(80) Poli votes EagleFan (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1)
(83) dubb93 votes Kwhit (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Kwhit 1)
(93) Schmidty votes Poli (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Kwhit 1, Poli 1)
(94) MartinD votes J23 (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Kwhit 1, Poli 1, J23 1)
(95) EagleFan votes Kwhit (Kwhit 2, dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1)
(96) CrimsonFox votes dubb93 (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1)
(100) J23 votes Darth Vilus (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, Darth Vilus 1)
(101) RealDeal votes GoldenEagle (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, Darth Vilus 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(112) Darth Vilus votes Kwhit (Kwhit 3, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, Darth Vilus 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(113) dubb93 unvotes Kwhit, votes Darth Vilus (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, Darth Vilus 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(120) Darth Vilus unvotes Kwhit, votes dubb93 (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 2, Kwhit 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(122) claphamsa votes saldana (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 2, saldana 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(123) MartinD unvotes J23 (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 2, saldana 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(126) MartinD votes Darth Vilus (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, saldana 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(127) RealDeal unvotes GoldenEagle, votes Kwhit (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, saldana 2, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)
(128) PurdueBrad votes Kwhit (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, Kwhit 3, saldana 2, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)
(131) Autumn votes saldana (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, Kwhit 3, saldana 3, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)
(135) Danny votes saldana (saldana 4, dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, Kwhit 3, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)

(154) Schmidty unvotes Poli, votes Darth Vilus (saldana 4, Darth Vilus 4, dubb93 3, Kwhit 3, EagleFan 1)
(160) PurdueBrad unvotes Kwhit, votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 5, saldana 4, dubb93 3, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(166) Kwhit votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 6, saldana 4, dubb93 3, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(171) GoldenEagle votes saldana (Darth Vilus 6, saldana 5, dubb93 3, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(173) saldana unvotes dubb93, votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 7, saldana 5, dubb93 2, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(187) dubb93 unvotes Darth Vilus, votes saldana (Darth Vilus 6, saldana 6, dubb93 2, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(220) EagleFan unvotes Kwhit, votes saldana (saldana 7, Darth Vilus 6, dubb93 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1)
(221) CrimsonFox unvotes dubb93, votes Darth Vilus (saldana 7, Darth Vilus 7, dubb93 2, EagleFan 1)
(222) claphamsa unvotes saldana
(224) claphamsa votes saldana (saldana 7, Darth Vilus 7, dubb93 2, EagleFan 1)
(226) Autumn unvotes saldana, votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 8, saldana 6, dubb93 2, EagleFan 1)



The following people voted for Saldana day 1. I'd be very surprised if it was all villagers voting for him (especially since the cunning wolf was in danger of being lynched all day).

spleen
claphamsa
Autumn (later unvoted)
Danny
GoldenEagle

Dubb93 (Render)
EagleFan

I'm thinking that one of spleen or Debb/Render is a wolf. Maybe both.
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Old 01-29-2010, 06:01 PM   #979
spleen1015
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We are in the tie scenario I talked about. Even if there is not a warlock, I think this is a good scenario for the village because we would know that info without losing anyone.

I hope things can stay this way until the deadline. At this point, any vote switches are against the village to me.
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Old 01-29-2010, 06:13 PM   #980
Lathum
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RendeR - 4: Autumn (917), CrimsonFox (918), PurdueBrad (922), The Jackal (936)
spleen1015 - 3: Poli (920), KWhit (975) Schmidty (977)
Poli - 4: J23 (943), spleen1015 (945), RendeR (947), MartinD (950)
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Old 01-29-2010, 06:22 PM   #981
Poli
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Join Date: Apr 2002
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At this point I think I may have an unhappy date when I excuse myself to check out the results.
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Old 01-29-2010, 06:24 PM   #982
Autumn
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I agree, this is a good way to find out if there is a warlock. Finding that out for certain might be more useful than just lynching another villager by accident, so I don't mind sticking with this. I'll be very interested to see who moves from now on.
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Old 01-29-2010, 06:26 PM   #983
Autumn
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
The following people voted for Saldana day 1. I'd be very surprised if it was all villagers voting for him (especially since the cunning wolf was in danger of being lynched all day).

spleen
claphamsa
Autumn (later unvoted)
Danny
GoldenEagle

Dubb93 (Render)
EagleFan

I'm thinking that one of spleen or Debb/Render is a wolf. Maybe both.

In addition I'd say that only the two early votes on Darth seem likely to be a wolf. He was not clearly in any danger at that point, but became so at the time MartinD voted for him. If Martin or any of the voters after are wolves, that's pretty ballsy. J23 and Dubb gave DV his first two votes.
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Old 01-29-2010, 06:39 PM   #984
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That's me done for today - looks like we're in a good position to get some useful information out of today's vote (as long as there aren't any late changes to votes...)
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Old 01-29-2010, 06:42 PM   #985
Poli
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Dubb and I would and have voted our own wolves out in the past.
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Old 01-29-2010, 06:44 PM   #986
CrimsonFox
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unvote rendubb
vote poli
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Old 01-29-2010, 06:45 PM   #987
CrimsonFox
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unvote poli
vote
rendubb

Psyche!
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Old 01-29-2010, 06:58 PM   #988
Poli
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Agreed if anyone switches now, I'd lynch them Monday.
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Old 01-29-2010, 07:06 PM   #989
J23
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I'm still not a huge fan of the tie, though I'll go along w/ the consensus. I really hope we have time to do something w/ the information we get from trying to narrow down who the warlock is.
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Old 01-29-2010, 08:40 PM   #990
KWhit
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Wow. It looks like we are actually going to go through with a tie vote scenario?

I am pretty suspicious of all three candidates, so that's good.
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Old 01-29-2010, 08:42 PM   #991
KWhit
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Let's just NOT screw it up at the last minute like we've done every other time we've tried it.
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Old 01-29-2010, 08:51 PM   #992
Autumn
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Well, this should be interesting. I think the chances that we find out there is no warlock are high, just because I can't see us finally catching a break here.
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Old 01-29-2010, 08:54 PM   #993
Lathum
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I just got in, is Kwhits count correct?

Last edited by Lathum : 01-29-2010 at 08:54 PM.
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Old 01-29-2010, 08:54 PM   #994
KWhit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Well, this should be interesting. I think the chances that we find out there is no warlock are high, just because I can't see us finally catching a break here.

The thing about it is that if there is a warlock, he'll have his vote on a villager I assume, meaning we'll end up lynching a good guy (or getting a tie if we're lucky and he happens to be on spleen).
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Old 01-29-2010, 08:55 PM   #995
Autumn
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Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
The thing about it is that if there is a warlock, he'll have his vote on a villager I assume, meaning we'll end up lynching a good guy (or getting a tie if we're lucky and he happens to be on spleen).

Yes, but it would settle the question of if there is one, which it seems will keep haunting us otherwise.
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Old 01-29-2010, 08:55 PM   #996
Autumn
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I just got in, is Kwhits count correct?

It seems right, but I can't verify it.
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Old 01-29-2010, 08:57 PM   #997
CrimsonFox
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Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
I might be willing to do that.

I want to look over some vote history between now and deadline, but at least for now:

VOTE SPLEEN

it's right here. why wouldn't it be correct.
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Old 01-29-2010, 08:58 PM   #998
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Well, now we'll find out if we have a warlock.
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Old 01-29-2010, 08:58 PM   #999
Autumn
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it's right here. why wouldn't it be correct.

Um, if it was wrong?

Or if he was a wolf trying to mess people up?
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Old 01-29-2010, 08:59 PM   #1000
CrimsonFox
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Never mind I thought you said something else.
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