Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!!

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Here is the Barkeep scenario, which I have dismissed:

Day 0: 14-2 ratio, things are Saldana and Barkeep
Day 1: Jeebs cleared (14-2)
Night 1: Things kill scientist Qwikshot (13-2)
Day 2: Saldana/Thing killed (13-1)
Day 2 (again): Dubb cleared (13-1)
Night 2: Barkeep converts ???

I'll revisit this scenario if there is another death tomorrow night. But if not, this scenario stays on the cutting room floor for me.

If Barkeep is a Thing, I think it is impossible for both Raiders and Coffee to be Things. Too many deaths/conversions to map out without starting with three Things. Which, I still maintain, would not be a competitive game.

hoopsguy = in circle of trust

dubb = out of circle of trust

Of course, if Blade tests clean, we reverse those.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

By the by.

Unvote Blade

Vote Dubb

I'm more convinced he's a Thing than Blade is.

I SOOO agree with this right now, but if I take my vote off Blade it will create a tie. Of corse, we have another 23 hours until the vote is final...

unvote blade

Vioe dubb

[dubb93]

vote me please, test me again, hell, test me the rest of the game, show how easily fooled you guys are. I love big circles. I would love for the bodyguard to reveal who he protected last night as long as it is either blade/hoops/dubb/coffee/barkeep, those are the 5 where I think the conversion came from. Seeing as how blade is thinking like me I'm confident it wasn't him, but coffee is pouring on the sugar coating like no other. Now I'll wait for RA to reveal he is the bodyguard....

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

I SOOO agree with this right now, but if I take my vote off Blade it will create a tie. Of corse, we have another 23 hours until the vote is final...

unvote blade

Vioe dubb

get me duckman, I need his smiley

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

get me duckman, I need his smiley

Ich verstest du nicht!

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Right now, however, I'm a scientist.

I thought you were a geneticist

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Ich verstest du nicht!

I'm sorry, I don't speak moron.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I thought you were a geneticist

No, I'm a giant hamster.

Come ON.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

No, I'm a giant hamster.

Come ON.

I KNEW IT!

[JeeberD]

Not a yak?

Vote C...

Nevermind.

[Coffee Warlord]

That's it. You and me, at the bike racks. 3pm.

Off to watch the Cubbies.

[hoopsguy]

If RA reveals he is the bodyguard my vote instantly goes to him. No further questions asked.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If RA reveals he is the bodyguard my vote instantly goes to him. No further questions asked.

I think you should make your vote count one way or the other. You yourself said that it almost has to be either blade/??? or RA/coffee and you can't see it being any other way.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

No, I'm a giant hamster.

Come ON.

Is it a minature giant space hamster?

[hoopsguy]

Dubb, I agree. When I posted the vote the only way to make my vote count was to vote Blade and I wasn't leaning that direction. Plus I still thought we could have the vote processed tonight if all votes were in.

But with the deadline set for tomorrow night I'll almost certainly be looking to move the vote off Tanglewood.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Off to watch the Cubbies.

Cubbies fookin blow.

[hoopsguy]

Damn it Jeebs, I've already said I'm planning to switch my vote. Don't push me

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Cubbies fookin blow.

I am SO drowning you in giant hamster shit.

[JeeberD]

Love both of ya guys....

[Abe Sargent]

I got back after a couple of hours of gaming and there are over FIVE FREAKIN PAGES of posts to get caught up on.

I think it's high time that you guys admit that you simpyl have no F'in clue as to what's going on. This version is dissimilar enough to previous iterations that you are about as informed as my newbie ass is.

You keep building assumptions on assumptions on assumptions and pretty soon, it's obviously a house of assumptions, and if just one is wrong, the whole thing collapses.

You are not going to figure out thing-hood by writing five pages in two hours. Blade talks too much, that makes him more suspect in my book. I'm keeping my vote on him. No assumptions, no wierd-ass interpretations of normal speech, no absolute dissection and parsing of every single word someone says. Just a simple observation.

You talk too much, Blade. Stop. Listen more.

-Anxiety

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

II think it's high time that you guys admit that you simpyl have no F'in clue as to what's going on. This version is dissimilar enough to previous iterations that you are about as informed as my newbie ass is.

You keep building assumptions on assumptions on assumptions and pretty soon, it's obviously a house of assumptions, and if just one is wrong, the whole thing collapses.

There's two things I've learned from WW --

1: the entire game is mostly filled by assumptions.
2: Sometimes, yes, being quiet is for the best (my first WW game as an example I was told by my wolf partners to stay quiet, and we won because NO ONE even remotely considered me as a Wolf -- I don't think I got a single vote the whole game), but for the most part, being quiet = suspicion.

[Barkeep49]

Anxiety I have to say that I'm feeling pretty good about how I've done this game. I don't have a vote yet out because there's much I need to review, but I don't buy that we're floundering in a sea of cum in the least.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Anxiety I have to say that I'm feeling pretty good about how I've done this game. I don't have a vote yet out because there's much I need to review, but I don't buy that we're floundering in a sea of cum in the least.

how poetic

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

how poetic

I do limmericks as well:

There once was a man from Nantuckett...

[st.cronin]

bom bom diggy

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

I got back after a couple of hours of gaming and there are over FIVE FREAKIN PAGES of posts to get caught up on.

I think it's high time that you guys admit that you simpyl have no F'in clue as to what's going on. This version is dissimilar enough to previous iterations that you are about as informed as my newbie ass is.

You keep building assumptions on assumptions on assumptions and pretty soon, it's obviously a house of assumptions, and if just one is wrong, the whole thing collapses.

You are not going to figure out thing-hood by writing five pages in two hours. Blade talks too much, that makes him more suspect in my book. I'm keeping my vote on him. No assumptions, no wierd-ass interpretations of normal speech, no absolute dissection and parsing of every single word someone says. Just a simple observation.

You talk too much, Blade. Stop. Listen more.

-Anxiety

LOL, i dont talk much to start and i get accused of being a thing and trying to fly UTR...now i talk and i am talking too much and must be a thing...i swear, i love WW

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Here is the Barkeep scenario, which I have dismissed:

Day 0: 14-2 ratio, things are Saldana and Barkeep
Day 1: Jeebs cleared (14-2)
Night 1: Things kill scientist Qwikshot (13-2)
Day 2: Saldana/Thing killed (13-1)
Day 2 (again): Dubb cleared (13-1)
Night 2: Barkeep converts ???

I'll revisit this scenario if there is another death tomorrow night. But if not, this scenario stays on the cutting room floor for me.

If Barkeep is a Thing, I think it is impossible for both Raiders and Coffee to be Things. Too many deaths/conversions to map out without starting with three Things. Which, I still maintain, would not be a competitive game.

I see it as he might of had a dark assasin role, just like other games have had. Once a game, he can kill someone. Doesnt mean saldana cant convert..The fact that they havent done it again(yes, only one night has passed since) makes me think its quite possible. Then night 1 RA, night two CW.

[Blade6119]

The key for me is the double vote days...we have that power to counter-act some power/powers they were given...its an extremly powerful weapon if used properly, and therefore i must assume they were given some great powers too

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Not in my mind, but if you make your assumptions about your own innocence then sure. I admit whatever you want. What other meaningless points do you want me to concede, becuase im happy to. Make a list real quick and ill admit to being the 20th hijacker if it makes you happy. Doesnt change what i think of the situation today.

My suspect list:
1.CW
2.RA(RA could be clean and CW, a thing, clears him...dubb did it a few games back, so we spend 2 days killing me or RA, then the other when they come up clear)
3.Barkeep(still dont know about the qwikshot kill, very possible third thing)
4.Dubb(despite his support of me, or maybe inspite of it...a possible convert, and is playing my support to earn my trust which ALAN T proved was oh so easy)

This is about the best summnation of my thoughts your going to get out of me, so i wanted to requote it for everyone. If you have questions that doesnt address, ill be a little suprised.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

The key for me is the double vote days...we have that power to counter-act some power/powers they were given...its an extremly powerful weapon if used properly, and therefore i must assume they were given some great powers too

I think the ability to convert is a pretty fantastic power.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think the ability to convert is a pretty fantastic power.

Yes, i agree...but with double votes we can easily kill them off in 1-2 days is we are smart with our votes. Especially given we already took 1-2 down. The double votes will be far more of a factor late in the game if we can control their numbers. With a smaller group, the double vote will de twice the weapon it is right now. In my mind were playing ball control until we get to a point where we can go on a run. And id assume we have a few blessed roles out there to help us a bit more as well, but we havent been lucky with that yet. And i pray, if we do have blessed, they act as witness and know who attacked

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

You are soundly asleep when one of you wakes you all up, and points out the fact that there's a definite smell of burning flesh in the air. You all head out toward the smell, but you don't have to go far before you notice wisps of some coming from the door to the kennel.

Inside you find a large black mass of burning flesh. At first, you assume it's a dog, but when you get closer you see that although having almost been reduce to cinders, there are what resemble the arms and legs of a human.

You quickly take stock of who's around you, and realize that Qwikshot is no where to be found.

This is not a good way to start the day.

Originally Posted by Schmidty

After the death of Qwikshot, everyone's nerves are frayed beyond belief. The challenges, denials, and arguments fly.

It is finally decided that saldana will be the target of the test. You all get up from the table and give saldana some room. For what seems like forever, saldana just sits and stares at the razor without moving. Everyone begins to get tense. Finally, the tension breaks into anger, and several of you move in on saldana. Two of you grab his arm and hold it down, but it is apparant that he is giving no signs of struggle. One of you grabs the razor, and without hesitation, slices into saldana's thumb. No sooner than the razor tears the skin, saldana explodes from his chair, throwing those of you nearest to him across the room. His mouth widens to freakish proportions and some type of disgusting appendage shoots from it toward the center of your group, but it never reaches you as a plume of flame engulfs him and tosses him to the floor. It seems that someone has fashioned a makeshift flame-thrower out of the blowtorch.

Writhing in agony, saldana slowing burns to ashes before your eyes.


You have tested and killed a Thing, and may now vote for another person to be tested before the day is over.

Just wanted to compare those two death sequences, and the burning flesh seems to be quite similar in the two. That would tell me that barkeep is likely on the up-and-up(or was). In that regard, i would like to retract my accusations of him for the time being. I now actively believe qwikshot was a thing and we are closer then i thought

[st.cronin]

I think it's obvious that Barkeep WAS a scientist.

[st.cronin]

dola

Which means very little now, and will mean less after the next night cycle.

[path12]

There's really no need for long explanations at this point, it seems. I've spent the past 90 minutes going through the past 6 pages or so, and the choice is pretty clear and concise: RA/CW or Blade/Dubb? The arguments are pretty complete on both sides.

I'm buying the idea that Raiders and Coffee the converted seer are clever and bold enough to try and pull off a plan like this as things. What moved me here was when Coffee made the remark about being tested after Blade and Dubb. Since then, I'm seeing misdirection and spreading of fear, uncertainty and doubt in order to buy the one crucial day they need to get a jump on the humans.

If I'm wrong, then I have played badly, because this is a crucial vote. But I think I'm right.

VOTE COFFEE WARLORD

[Blade6119]

Hey Barkeep, what was the name of your role...CW made it clear his role was called the geneticist...did you recieve a similar name for your special role?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by dubb93

vote me please, test me again, hell, test me the rest of the game, show how easily fooled you guys are. I love big circles. I would love for the bodyguard to reveal who he protected last night as long as it is either blade/hoops/dubb/coffee/barkeep, those are the 5 where I think the conversion came from. Seeing as how blade is thinking like me I'm confident it wasn't him, but coffee is pouring on the sugar coating like no other. Now I'll wait for RA to reveal he is the bodyguard....

I'm only a simple, but brilliant scientist. Why the hell would you think I was the bodyguard?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If RA reveals he is the bodyguard my vote instantly goes to him. No further questions asked.

Que?

[hoopsguy]

Because earlier in the game you were not the bodyguard, based on your posts.

This has no bearing on my (non) role, but would point towards an inconsistency on your part that I would not be able to justify. But I don't think that you would go this direction anyways, so it is a moot point.


Right?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

I got back after a couple of hours of gaming and there are over FIVE FREAKIN PAGES of posts to get caught up on.

I think it's high time that you guys admit that you simpyl have no F'in clue as to what's going on. This version is dissimilar enough to previous iterations that you are about as informed as my newbie ass is.

You keep building assumptions on assumptions on assumptions and pretty soon, it's obviously a house of assumptions, and if just one is wrong, the whole thing collapses.

You are not going to figure out thing-hood by writing five pages in two hours. Blade talks too much, that makes him more suspect in my book. I'm keeping my vote on him. No assumptions, no wierd-ass interpretations of normal speech, no absolute dissection and parsing of every single word someone says. Just a simple observation.

You talk too much, Blade. Stop. Listen more.

-Anxiety

After a good night's sleep (not really, I puked about 12 am) I think this is probably the most coherent post in the past 12 hours. I think Blade talks too much in terms of fluff. As it was said before in other games, he throws so much shit out there, he just sees what sticks and then throws shit on top of it. I really don't think he listens at all or he ignores the other side of the argument.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Because earlier in the game you were not the bodyguard, based on your posts.

This has no bearing on my (non) role, but would point towards an inconsistency on your part that I would not be able to justify. But I don't think that you would go this direction anyways, so it is a moot point.


Right?

Gotcha. Right.

[Raiders Army]

A few thoughts before I get ready to head to work:

1. After re-reading some of the posts, I agree that CW's post about his seer reveal makes it seem as if I'm legit today. It only came out later that he wouldn't know if I were converted Night 2. I gave him a bye initially since I knew I was a scientist and that's what he said. I think some of you are reading a little too much into his posts. It's not like other people haven't misposted. For example:

Post #467

Originally Posted by dubb93

We haven't converted since Saldana just died.

It sounds as if dubb is a Thing. I asked "Who's we" and he responded not to read anything into it. I find it ironic that he's doing the same thing to CW.

2. There is a possibility that dubb is still a Thing and the test won't work on him (damn if I can't remember that role right now). Frankly, I think that's a very slim possibility, but it might be considered. I'm trying to think how it would be balanced in the game. Barkeep's power, perhaps? That would be the only way to kill him. I just don't think that this is something to think hard about, but perhaps consider with any testing we do.

3. The more and more I think about it, I agree that Blade is just a loquacious stubborn individual and not a Thing. I also am not sure that dubb is converted either. Finally, I don't think CW is a Thing. I know I'm not a Thing. In a way, I think that the Thing(s) are sitting back and watch the four of us go at each other while we argue about testing four scientists. I'm going to try to step back a little to observe a little more (plus I have quite a bit of work today).

[hoopsguy]

Picking any random four people out of the remaining group, it is only 50% likely that you have a Thing in the mix (12/14*11/13*10/12*9/11 = 49.5). So I certainly agree that this is possible.

I would like to think that we collectively are better than random at this stage in the game when it comes to putting together a group of four. That said, the Dubb/Blade vs CW/RA debate basically wasn't any one person selecting four people, but instead reacting to four people who had seemed to choose sides.

Sorry to break out math in the middle of a perfectly good werewolf game.

FWIW, based on my list of assumptions from earlier in the game we are facing two converts right now. Which makes it harder to track, since they have not been playing as Things the entire game.

Here is my list of assumptions, re-posted from #793, with #4 added late last night as I was putting off work to think about this addictive game:

1.) We started with two Things
2.) Barkeep killed one of them on Night 1 (Qwikshot)
3.) They have converted on each of the first two nights; we are still facing two things (12-2 ratio now)
4.) Qwikshot and Saldana were the two original Things

In my mind, it makes zero sense to convert Saldana after his Day 1 rant about the code. I know it set off alarm bells for me that he was a Thing at the time; you don't want to attract heat as a Thing so why convert someone who has already created that kind of suspicion?

[hoopsguy]

From Anxiety, Post #970:

You keep building assumptions on assumptions on assumptions and pretty soon, it's obviously a house of assumptions, and if just one is wrong, the whole thing collapses.

This I agree with, which is why I published my assumptions earlier and why I just re-posted them. I'll put the assumptions out there for people to react to (yes, this includes the Things) and hopefully help us reach a common set of assumptions. It is definitely easier to understand why someone votes a certain way if they lay out their assumptions.

In this particular game, I think this may potentially be more valuable than publishing a circle of trust, which is extremely fluid given the conversions aspect of this game.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Hey Barkeep, what was the name of your role...CW made it clear his role was called the geneticist...did you recieve a similar name for your special role?

I feel this falls under the Schmdity prohibition about discussing PMs and will not be sharing the name of my role as such.

[Barkeep49]

Ok let's do a post look at for each of our 4 suspects. Coffee is the easiest as I had already done his through post 264 so we'll start with him.

Coffee Warlord
97 - Asks not to be tested since he's afraid of needles
99 - Says Path is a lesbian and so we should kill him
101 - Reminds that it's Night 0 so no vote
104 - In response to Jeeber commenting on the needles says we shouldn't listen to Cowboys fans
139 - Votes for Jeeber for secretly loving TO
156 -

Which is also the problem. Do we waste votes the next day on people cleared, or do we go after others? Rough.

162 - Hopes that that we have ways of clearing people besides votes
169 - Wonders how a day's second vote will work
170 - Realizes that second vote is only if we get a Thing
207 - Meaningless
208 - Votes for me to see if I'm on the up and up
209 - Realizes vote for me doesn't count as it's after deadline
234 - Says it would hugely suck if I kill him
244 - Schedule question
252 -

As we still have pretty much nothing to go on, and I think, at this point, a vote on Jeeber is a waste (we have to clear some more people first - we can't just do repeat votes on the same person)....

There are a few people I fear as "wolves" always. I want him either cleared or killed.

Vote Raiders Army

262 - Says vote for Raiders is shot in the dark and is out of respect for his previous wolfing.
264 - Thinks hoops is on the level
329 - Says he thinks hoops is clear unless a convert and believes RA to be the best of the suspects, though not too confident
345 - Doesn't have a preference about going after a convert or original Shitface
387 - Unvotes RA
388 -

Something feels wrong here. I know I said I was pretty sure hoops was okay, but something seems wrong.

Vote Hoops

393 - Says he had "good vibes" about hoops but now wonders since hoops was casting suspicion unto him. Some posts are "out of character"
397 - Feels vote against hoops is a "gut feeling"
428 - Meaningless post
473 - Decides to trust hoops and the list, despite his being on it. Votes for WVU for being under the radar
561 - Votes dubb to try and prevent a tie
581 - Agrees to go after RA
585 - Votes for RA
589 - Hopes we're not tied
590 - Wants someone to change "now"
593 - Votes for dubb to try and prevent a tie
596 - Comments on how crazy the end of voting was
600 - Would rather vote against dubb then have a tie
605 - Again on the crazy of the last minute voting
608 - Comments to Blade, with a smiley, that tomorrow is a new chance to have a crazy vote
612 - Meaningless post
616 - Wants results
682 - Comes out as seer and says has scanned hoops and CW
687 - Believes that the longer he waits to come out the higher the chance he has of being converted
690 - Votes Blade for doubting him
692 - Believes that seer isn't as good as normal as another reason he came out
703 - Says since I picked up on his seer hints that Shitfaces might as well defending his coming out as seer
743 - Wants people to watch who votes for him
746 - Didn't want us to waste a day with RA when he knew RA was innocent
747 - Thinks Blade might be a Shitface
755 - Explains about what UTR means (under the radar)
795 - Talking in response to WVU

I'll happily offer myself to be tested....after Blade and you.

It has been my experience there's traditionally at least one Bad Guy pushing hard to discredit a major role reveal, along with one person guessing totally wrong.

I do, however, question your Thinghood since you haven't been around. Hence, blade goes first, and we'll see how things sort out tomorrow.

797 - Says he's always wrong about Blade but has to be right one of these times
806 - Repeats that he came out to avoid people piling on an innocent
829 - Admits that if RA was converted last night he wouldn't know that
933 - Believes that this game has been similar to X-COM where bad guys discredited his good role
935 - Starting to believe Blade is a villager
938 - Points out how many times people have been wrong about Blade
941 - In response to dubb

I feel it necessary to, gasp, inform people of the entire situation. The seer role is REALLY DAMN WEAK this game, and people need to understand that.

And you've been converted.

944 - Says he knows a conversion could have happened after his scan because he asked schmidty
946 - Votes for dubb as a liklier suspect then Blade
950 - To dubb

No, at this point, I don't want you to believe shit. I'm convinced you've been converted.

For the gallery, however.

I was trying to come up with ways to prevent me from being trusted if I AM converted after tonight. Obviously if I become a Thing, I'm going to play for the Things. It's totally against the spirit of WW any other way.

Right now, however, I'm a scientist. Thusly, I'm trying to create a scenario where, if I'm converted, there will be as little way as possible for my now public role to be used. If anyone has any better idea on how to accomplish that, I'm open to suggestions.

958 - Meaningless post
961 - Meaningless post
968 - Meaningless post

Dubb will be next followed by RA before I take on the monster that is recapping Blade's posts, which I'm not sure I will even be able to do until much later in the day.

[Coffee Warlord]

FYI - Meeting From Hell this afternoon, and busy preparing for Meeting From Hell this morning. Availability limited.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, I expect you will finish the recaps of the posts by those four guys about six hours after our deadline

[path12]

Going through that list, maybe it's just me but it really looks like Coffee's play changed from day 2 to day 3.

[hoopsguy]

In all seriousness, I'm hoping that whether or not you have finished that process that by mid-afternoon or so you will be willing/able to talk about your impressions of yesterday.

One trend I would look for is people who's general tenor of their posts change, as I believe both wolves right now are converts. So if you are able to establish some kind of baseline for the candidates on Day 1 and then look for shifts in voice/direction/purpose after the night action. If you are taking that approach then I think the total post capture is potentially very useful.