COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

About a month since the stats I posted above from CDC. So looking like +1.5% per month right now for >12. So about 5 more months before we hit 80% if it keeps up.

(The >5 was just approved in Nov so that drags down the average. The <5 not yet approved).

> 12 is at 72.6 up from 71.1%.

At least one dose ...

> 12 is at 85.2 up from 83.5%.

Last post was 2/3, so the below stats are 1 month later. The previous months run rate was +1.5%. Looks like this month its +.9%.

> 12 is at 73.5% up from 72.6%.

At least one dose ...

> 12 is at 86.1% up from 85.2%.

[CrimsonFox]

hey guys. an updates. I think I am FINALLY over the whole covid thing!

My headache has FINALLY gone away.
I am still clearing the back of my throat a little from drainage but I suspect there's some allergy action going on. The wheezy feeling in my chest is finally gone. I'm not as exhausted after working.
I'm am very very thankful.
And cannot believe businesses think it is okay to do away with masks and policies to keep us safe

[Edward64]

Looks like HK is having major issues with Covid right now.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/05/asia/...dst/index.html

Hong Kong -- once lauded as a zero-Covid success story -- is now battling a deadly outbreak reminiscent of the early days of the pandemic, despite having had more than two years to prepare.

With locally transmitted cases surging past 312,000 in the city of 7.4 million in just the last two weeks, hospitals and embattled health workers have been stretched to breaking point. The numbers are likely to be far higher due to suspicions people are not reporting their positive test results for fear of being separated from families and put into government isolation facilities.

Although the rampant surge has been driven by the less deadly Omicron variant, Hong Kong's deaths are also rising -- particularly among the city's unvaccinated elderly. According to Our World in Data, which uses data from Johns Hopkins University, Hong Kong reported more deaths per million people in the week to March 3 than any country or territory.

Not sure why immunization rates are "lagging". You'd think HK (like China) can mandate vaccinations.

"March is going to be a very, very difficult time," said Sridhar. "(It's) definitely an unprecedented health crisis for Hong Kong."

For a city that has already put up with two years of tough restrictions, news of citywide testing has proved too much for some residents who are frantically looking for a flight out.

And while vaccines mean Hong Kong is better off than it would have been two years ago, immunization rates are still lagging among its elderly population -- meaning many of the city's most vulnerable are still unprotected.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

hey guys. an updates. I think I am FINALLY over the whole covid thing!

My headache has FINALLY gone away.
I am still clearing the back of my throat a little from drainage but I suspect there's some allergy action going on. The wheezy feeling in my chest is finally gone. I'm not as exhausted after working.
I'm am very very thankful.
And cannot believe businesses think it is okay to do away with masks and policies to keep us safe

Glad you are getting better CF

[CrimsonFox]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/02/healt...eer/index.html

And....animals have it now....and mutation will be a whole new ballgame. I really do hope this is the one that can change me into an animal...

[Edward64]

Another outbreak in China. Nothing near what we experienced. Arguably, China did this right with their rapid response, strict quarantines etc. If Trump/Biden tried to do the same in the US, there would be an uprising. But it does seem to work for China.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/11/china...hnk/index.html

China is fighting its biggest Covid-19 outbreak since the early days of the pandemic, with discontent spreading on social media after one university cluster left students reportedly without access to bathrooms or drinking water.

The country reported 1,100 new locally-transmitted cases on Thursday -- which, though nowhere near the level seen in other nations, is considered high by China's standards. It marked the highest daily total since the virus emerged in Wuhan in 2020, prompting alarm among local and national leaders.

What caught my eye was possible shift in zero-covid policy. Don't think I've read an acknowledgement from China before.

Much of the world is opening up. China is definitely on the back part of the curve but my guess is they'll be forced to reckon with slowly opening and a populace that is largely vaccinated but don't have the Omi/Delta "natural vaccinations/antibodies" (e.g. because there was not a massive outbreak there). Their Sino vaccines don't work as well with reports between 50-80%. If we assume the lower end of 50%, its still pretty good compared with flu shots.

Is this going to be a pay me now or pay me later? What will happen when China reopens albeit slowly? I lean towards China handling this well but at the cost of civil rights. It wouldn't have worked in the US but that doesn't mean it's not the right approach for China.

I do want China to re-open quickly. There are places I want to visit and food I want to eat. But my guess is very restricted travel through end of year and then reopening like other western countries in 2023.

China's zero-Covid strategy has put local governments under huge pressure to keep the virus at bay, and a slew of officials have been punished during previous rounds of local outbreaks.

As public frustration and sympathy for the students mounted, state media acknowledged that some sectors were showing "a certain level of fatigue toward the dynamic zero-Covid strategy, which could affect the outcome of the implementation of the current policy."

Some Chinese leaders and scientists have also hinted that China could move away from the strategy. Zero-Covid "will not remain unchanged forever," wrote Zeng Guang, the chief epidemiologist at China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention, on Weibo last week.

[Edward64]

If you were going to buy an Apple product, recommend you buy it now because Apple's supply chain may be impacted with new outbreak.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/appl...acts.%E2%80%9D

Foxconn, a major assembler of Apple’s iPhones, said Monday it is pausing operations in Shenzhen, a Chinese manufacturing hub, after an uptick in Covid-19 cases led the city to shut down again.

“The operation of Foxconn in Shenzhen China has been suspended from March 14 onwards in compliance with the local government’s new COVID-19 policy,” the company told CNBC in an email. “The date of factory resumption is to be advised by the local government.”

Foxconn produces some iPhones, iPads and Macs in Shenzhen. However, almost 50% of iPhones are produced at a factory in Henan province, according to a Bank of America research note Monday. Apple can start to ramp up production in Henan province to recoup some of those losses.

“Apple/Foxconn have the ability to relocate production to other areas in the short term provided that there is not a significantly higher duration of lockdown,” the firm’s analysts wrote. “An increased period of shutdowns can cause ripple effects at other components that can create a shortfall in production.”

The analysts said they would not cut estimates yet but they remain cautious about any “prolonged supply impacts.”

[Ksyrup]

US extended the mask requirement on airlines and all public transportation until April 18th, but it seems as if it will go away if we continue with the downswing in positives. I fly to SD in mid-April, so I'll still have to wear a mask for that trip, but I'm hoping it will be gone by June when we go to Hawaii.

[Edward64]

Kids under 5 vaccine in May.

Pfizer CEO says fourth COVID shot will be needed, shots for young kids could start in May

Bourla also said he expects data on the Pfizer vaccine’s effectiveness for children 5 and under to be ready in April, which — if positive and approved — would put the first vaccinations on track for May.

In February, Pfizer and its partner BioNTech SE BNTX, +12.00% unexpectedly delayed seeking federal authorization for the vaccine to be used on young children. On Sunday, Bourla said he understands the frustration of parents, but that the delay had “good intent.”

Pfizer “eventually concluded that the best thing to do for the kids, it is the way to have a full set of data that provides full, transparent proof about what the vaccine can do,” he said. “I think the three doses likely will provide a very strong set of evidence.”

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Kids under 5 vaccine in May.

Pfizer CEO says fourth COVID shot will be needed, shots for young kids could start in May

well yes I'm getting a fourth shot no matter what any fuckface says

[flere-imsaho]

And I'm still wearing my mask in the grocery store. This weekend I did my weekly shop and not one, not two, but three people I ran into had coughing fits in my vicinity. Were they wearing masks? Like fuck they were. In a grocery story, no less. One that still does curbside pickup.

People are assholes.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

US extended the mask requirement on airlines and all public transportation until April 18th, but it seems as if it will go away if we continue with the downswing in positives. I fly to SD in mid-April, so I'll still have to wear a mask for that trip, but I'm hoping it will be gone by June when we go to Hawaii.

I had considered that my trip last week to California might have been the last with the mask...but it's likely I'll get another in before then.

[Lathum]

Flying to England on 4/15.

I think they keep the mandate through spring break/Easter weekend then lift it.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Flying to England on 4/15.

I think they keep the mandate through spring break/Easter weekend then lift it.

Europe is starting to see another potential spike so that remains to be seen.

SI

[Edward64]

And China is fighting to contain the latest outbreaks. China's done great in containing prior outbreaks. I thought covid couldn't be contained but was wrong the prior 2 years. Omicron may be extra hard with its transmissibility.

China’s worst Covid-19 outbreak since the initial wave of the pandemic worsened Tuesday with a major factory city ordering production halts.

Recent outbreaks in 28 provinces have infected more than 15,000 people and stem primarily from the highly transmissible omicron variant, China’s National Health Commission said Tuesday, according to state media. China has 31 province-level regions.

Although the northern province of Jilin accounts for most of the cases, the latest outbreak has hit major cities such as the financial center of Shanghai and technology manufacturing hub Shenzhen.

[tarcone]

Who wins. Nukes or a virus?

[21C]

Australia's case numbers are growing again. We had our worst numbers ever over December and January - our summer. Things were beginning to subside but today's numbers took a big jump.

This is beginning to be quite noticeable at my high school. Attendance numbers are falling and it is quite obvious in many of my classes.

This is from my own spreadsheet on Australian cases since the start of the pandemic (date format is DDMMYY).

[Edward64]

Australia has 81% vaccination rate and 48% with +booster so you guys are doing pretty good. Hopefully those infections won't translate proportionally to deaths.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Edward64

If you were going to buy an Apple product, recommend you buy it now because Apple's supply chain may be impacted with new outbreak.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/appl...acts.%E2%80%9D

I've got a Kickstarter project pending that is in production at Shenzhen; they've been told their lockdown is going to end on March 21st, so just a one-week shutdown. Take it with a grain of salt, but it appears they're optimistic it's going to be a quick, temporary inconvenience.

[21C]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Australia has 81% vaccination rate and 48% with +booster so you guys are doing pretty good. Hopefully those infections won't translate proportionally to deaths.

Actually we are doing better than that. The figures posted about us at the aggregation sites seem to be lagging quite a bit.

We have 94.8% of people over the age of 16 double vaxed.
59.7% have had the booster (ages 16+).

I get all of my data from a site that collects public health releases across the country.
3,715,615 Coronavirus cases in Australia - COVID Live

[RainMaker]

Australia really did put most of the world to shame in their handling of COVID. That's some incredible work.

[Edward64]

More covid to come. If western Europe is dealing with it now, its inevitable we'll have to deal with it also. Yet to be seen how dangerous (hospitalizations vs infectious) it is.

A covid surge in Western Europe has U.S. bracing for another wave

A surge in coronavirus infections in Western Europe has experts and health authorities on alert for another wave of the pandemic in the United States, even as most of the country has done away with restrictions after a sharp decline in cases.

Infectious-disease experts are closely watching the subvariant of omicron known as BA.2, which appears to be more transmissible than the original strain, BA.1, and is fueling the outbreak overseas.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, signal is getting stronger for another surge in 4-6 weeks here in the US as wastewater is starting to show signs of increase. Ideally, that's when you put some restrictions back into place temporarily to help blunt the wave. However, I think a lot of people are running out of appetite for that sort of thing.

I'm still reminded of a blog post at the very start of this, The Hammer and the Dance, that basically described this to a T. And, yet, as a society, we're just not going to be willing to do some minor inconveniences because we all want to get back to a "normal" state of mind.

SI

[PilotMan]

When the tools have been on the table for quite some time, and there has been no relative movement in the direction you want to go, it's time to buck up and say "cool, this is what they want, this is what they get". I've got no more patience to go out of my way to protect those who refuse to help themselves.

The next question should be the extent that we'll allow those individuals to sink the system with their own choices and ruin it for the rest of society.

[Ksyrup]

At this point, the question I have is, what does this variant look like? If it looks like Omicron, I'll take my chances with getting the first cold I've had in 2.5 years. I'm fully vaxxed and will wear a mask in public voluntarily if I think I'm in too crowded a place. I don't need the government to tell me what to do - I've been through this drill enough at this point.

[PilotMan]

I just got off a cruise ship, and spent 2 days near the beach in Ft Lauderdale with the rest of spring break humanity. I didn't wear a mask unless it was required, and it was only required in a few places. It was very nice to not even think about covid, even with the boat being at ~85% capacity. There were only a few token people who wore masks, as of March 1, you no longer were required to be masked indoors.

I think it is continuing to morph into endemic status, and I'm good with accepting that and moving onward in that direction. I'm sure people will still die, but again, we have multiple diseases that cause death. We'll continue to work towards best practices and vaccines, but we really should have reached a point where the abject fear and unknowns regarding it are behind us.

[albionmoonlight]

People are not going back to any prevention measures whatsoever. For whatever it got them, the MAGAs won that battle.

It is stupid, but there's a lot of stupid stuff we live with because conservatives don't like having their feelings hurt.

All we can do at this point is keep ourselves max vaxxed and hope that long Covid isn't as bad as some people fear.

[PilotMan]

I don't see it as MAGA's won the battle, science won the battle because we created a vaccine that is being distributed worldwide, and the overall risk is lower, and the most recent genetic mutations of the virus are more beneficial to the virus than the original virus itself. What I mean is that it spreads faster, kills slower, and overall adds to the spread and survival of the virus itself. The fact that we end up moving to a system where people no longer need to worry as much about protocols doesn't mean MAGA's won. It means that we've progressed, and that science works, just because they look to have similar ends doesn't justify their positions.

[Ksyrup]

THEY think they won because, after 1M+ people died, vaccines were created, and we implemented a slew of social policies intended to keep people safe, we are now at the point - 2+ years later - that they claimed we were at in March/April of 2020.

"We were right all along."

I've heard that argument several times recently. There was no reason for the lockdowns or vaccines because this was always the glorified flu just like we said it was way back when.

[QuikSand]

Possibly related: US COVID deaths have only just dropped to the point where it takes three or four days to toll an entire 9/11 death count, rather than one or two days. Remember 9/11, the day where thousands of Americans died and we pledged to never again let anything like that happen?

And we've decided COVID is over. While cases and deaths are on the rise all around us, for reasons we fully understand and can absolutely mitigate. But we aren't going to.

"I'm over it" has won the day. And I am right there with most everyone, complicit.

[molson]

Are we supposed to still be locking down?

The risk of COVID isn't close to significant enough to deprive myself of important life events and experiences anymore. I guess that's complicity, but it's also a knowing choice. I'm going to go out to dinner tonight even though I might die in a car accident on the way. I'm going to take a bunch of risks tomorrow too. It's not a moral failing to decide to live our lives despite some small risk. It's a choice of how to balance mental health v. physical health risks.

"Acting like COVID is over" and "being over it" sound like negative sentiments, and I don't know if they're intended that way, but I think they're very positive things for most people. We're wired to be resilient and to move forward even if there's obstacles. I don't think that's a MAGA thing.

[QuikSand]

No, I don't really have a criticism for where we are right now... I'll be at a restaurant without a mask today too, I suspect.

I am worried, though, that if/when metrics in my area rise back to the point where it's sensible/obvious to be taking precautions, that both our populace and our political leaders have simply run dry on willingness to do so, and we will end up abetting the next spike by our inability to react wisely to it. It seems very obvious to me this is where we are going to be in a few weeks here on the east coast. Lots of cases, lots of hospitalized, but not very many people reacting in the easy ways.

So, to answer your obvious strawman, no I am not "lockdown forever over any degree of risk." I have been in favor of "do the sensible things when the situation merits it," but it seems like the median on what that constitutes has moved in the last several weeks. When both our neighborhood hospital and indoor tavern are overflowing at the same time, we're doing it wrong.

[molson]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

When both our neighborhood hospital and indoor tavern are overflowing at the same time, we're doing it wrong.

So you're saying we shouldn't be going out now? Or later, when cases increase?

If you know cases are going to increase, and there's already signs of it now, why are you going out to dinner tonight?

[molson]

I guess I just kind of resent the criticism that we're "acting like COVID is over", or that we should consider COVID deaths the same as 9/11 deaths and respond and act accordingly, or that seeing friends and going out means that "MAGA won".

I know COVID isn't over. I'll probably always deal with the collateral effects and all the way COVID changed my life for the worse. I'm trying to crawl back, but some things are beyond my control. I don't feel bad for anti-vaxxers at hospitals. I do feel bad for the innocent people at hospitals impacted by the anti-vaxxers, though that impact has reduced for now. I've thought about how what I do or don't do may impact them and have struggled with that. But I don't think trying to move forward impacts them to a degree where I'm morally required to take on more damage to my life and mental health. I've never had a COVID symptom, I've never tested positive (and tested negative many times), and I've gotten every vaccine as soon as I could. I'm not sure what else I'm supposed to be doing or not doing to not "act like COVID is over", or how else I'm supposed to acknowledge the 9/11-esque daily quantities of deaths, or how else I'm supposed to not be a part of MAGA's victory. When I ask more about specifics of those things there's never really an answer. Like we're not really required to do anything different, except acknowledge that we're bad for having that perspective.

[Thomkal]

Two bits of good news here:


1) This thread hasn't been bumped in a week


2)Local Hospital has no new COVID hospitalizations for four straight days and those were the first in 2 years.

[Edward64]

Airlines want to remove masks. I think they should be the last to remove masks especially on long flights so I'd give it another 2-3 months assuming nothing major happens and assuming they still do the pre-flight covid checks to enter the country.

[PilotMan]

I think they should require them on the ground and takeoff and landing, but mid flight they should ditch them. And keep them then, only if they are still requiring them in the airport.

[Ksyrup]

I suppose we're going to find out about whether our collective immunity (either from infection or vaccine) holds because the BA2 Omicron variant is fast becoming the dominant strain in the US and spreads 80% faster than the OG. Hopefully our days of massive surges are over and we'll be in line for a booster by the fall to protect during winter, similar to how we protect for the flu.

[albionmoonlight]

We take this for granted, but it is completely insane when you take a step back and think about it.

[sterlingice]

I'm trying to figure out what the x-axis is measuring

SI

[henry296]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm trying to figure out what the x-axis is measuring

SI

It is a measure of statistical significance for that modeling technique. I think of it like an index, so 200 is twice as significant as average.

[AlexB]

It's just a bar chart, each factor relative to the other

Who you voted for is 6x a bigger indicator on vaccination status compared to where you live :wow:

[sterlingice]

I'm just used to seeing, say, r or r^2 for correlation. Was trying to figure out how that scale worked. I showed it to my wife, who works in scientific editing and she couldn't figure it out, either. Like I get the basics: Pres vote correlated stronger than any other variable to vaccination status. But without proper scale, I'm having a hard timed determining how much.

SI

[Brian Swartz]

I'm actually surprised the gap isn't bigger. None of that really is much of a surprise to me.

[albionmoonlight]

It is now being reported that Florida's vaccination numbers might be artificially inflated (by around half a million) by people who came to Florida to get a vaccine and then left--including many people from South American and Central American countries who flew to Florida, lied about their residency to get a jab, and flew back.

And the Florida government has announced no plans to investigate or take any actions.

Which shows just how deep anti-vax has gotten in the GOP. You have a story where non-white non-Americans came here and illegally obtained something free that our tax dollars paid for and that was supposed to just be for Americans.

Normally, that would be the GOP campaign talking point going into 2022. They would be demanding hearings. The New York Times would have a special sidebar on their webpage dedicated to the story for months.

But, because investigating/cracking down on this could make the GOP leaders in Florida look kinda sorta not anti-vax, they are just going to sweep it under the rug.

[Edward64]

I had guessed in an earlier post that China would gradually ease these lockdowns after the Olympics and accept the incremental deaths as other countries are doing now. Guess I was wrong.

Shanghai imposes lockdown in effort to control omicron outbreak | TheHill

Shanghai announced on Sunday that it will introduce a series of lockdowns in an effort to test the entire population of 26 million people for COVID-19 amid outbreaks of the omicron variant.

The lockdowns and testing will begin on Monday and last until April 1 for areas east of the Huangpu River. Areas west of the river will then undergo restrictions and testing from April 1 through April 5, according to The New York Times.

With the exception of individuals providing essential services, people will not be allowed to leave their homes, nonessential businesses will be closed and transit will be halted, the Times reported.

In contrast to other cities in China that have taken a zero-tolerance approach to COVID, the measures are closest to a full-scale lockdown that Shanghai has seen amid the spread of the highly contagious omicron variant.

[QuikSand]

Shanghai likely waited too long to shutdown, they're at great risk.

[Edward64]

2nd booster authorized for regular folks 50+.

The US Food and Drug Administration has expanded the emergency use authorization of the Pfizer and Moderna Covid-19 vaccines to allow adults age 50 and older to get a second booster as early as four months after their first booster dose of any Covid-19 vaccine.

The move extends the availability of additional boosters to healthy older adults. The FDA had previously allowed second booster shots for anyone 12 years of age or older who was severely immune deficient, starting four months after their first booster.

"Current evidence suggests some waning of protection over time against serious outcomes from COVID-19 in older and immunocompromised individuals. Based on an analysis of emerging data, a second booster dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine could help increase protection levels for these higher-risk individuals," said Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research

[RainMaker]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...n-coronavirus/

[sovereignstar v2]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...n-coronavirus/

Kind of an old article, no? Or is there recent relevance I'm missing?