Werewolf LXXVI - The Werewolf Draft! Game over, see last pages for details

[Danny]

I'm a bit torn on my voting for today. I'm still not sure either Lathum or DT are wolves, but I don't like the fact that if one of them is a wolf (non cunning) that they can do the killing on a number of people while the cunning wolf is allowed to stay hidden. I see a lot of bickering between people, but not a whole lot of evidence for anyone. Sigh, wish we learned more from day one.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

No, my power as Duke does not require me to have the vote on someone that I want to duke (or on myself to invalidate the entire lynch) as someone mentioned before. Next time my power can kick in, my vote has nothing to do with it.

I simply moved my vote to myself there because I had decided to no-lynch the day due to all of the reveals and uncertainty of us possibly killing off our own bodyguard or seer. The reason I voted myself was hopefully to allow any spy type role out there the option if they wanted to watch me at times this game if someone tries to kill me right now it would have to be the cunning wolf. No other wolf has the ability to kill me thus far.

I didn't really spell that out up till now as I was trying to be somewhat clever on the chance that they come after me hoping the spy would pick up on it.. since several people have mentioned not having any idea why I did that, I guess I was being too clever for functional purpose.

In retrospect, I think it was clever, but, yes, probably too clever, like DT's Whitney Houston hint. But I do think that was an idea that had some merit to it had the message gotten across. So I applaud the attempt at the very least.

So, IIRC, you have stated you want to look elsewhere than Lathum and DT. As you can see from my post above, I agree. But I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on my vote and on other potential candidates.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

In retrospect, I think it was clever, but, yes, probably too clever, like DT's Whitney Houston hint. But I do think that was an idea that had some merit to it had the message gotten across. So I applaud the attempt at the very least.

So, IIRC, you have stated you want to look elsewhere than Lathum and DT. As you can see from my post above, I agree. But I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on my vote and on other potential candidates.

I don't buy Eaglefan as a top choice for my vote today. His "mistake" as well as Olie's "mistake" both seem to me like typical villager moves that wolves (or misguided villagers) are quick to jump on and thus condemning a good guy who can't talk their way out of a poor move or mistake.

EF's move doesn't feel as much like a wolf ploy or wolf misdirection to me as it just feels like him trying to find a wolf somewhere that they aren't.

I've had a bad gut feeling about Barkeep since early day 1 and have done everything I can to keep myself from acting on it up until now. I also have an odd feeling about Saldana and Sndvls right now too, just from their interaction in the game thus far.

I don't have anything that I would present as evidence to the rest of the group to try to encourage anyone to follow me though on a vote, but right now I've just been listening to other people's thoughts about what moves were made on day 1 to try to possibly condemn or save people. I'm likely going to try to also vote for someone I feel is suspicious but that can also give us further insight into day 1 though. (For instance if we lynch Saldana and he ends up a wolf, what does that tell us about his and Lathum's play together thus far this game.. what does it say about DT considering Saldana was basically the nail in the coffin vote today).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I don't buy Eaglefan as a top choice for my vote today. His "mistake" as well as Olie's "mistake" both seem to me like typical villager moves that wolves (or misguided villagers) are quick to jump on and thus condemning a good guy who can't talk their way out of a poor move or mistake.

EF's move doesn't feel as much like a wolf ploy or wolf misdirection to me as it just feels like him trying to find a wolf somewhere that they aren't.

I've had a bad gut feeling about Barkeep since early day 1 and have done everything I can to keep myself from acting on it up until now. I also have an odd feeling about Saldana and Sndvls right now too, just from their interaction in the game thus far.

I don't have anything that I would present as evidence to the rest of the group to try to encourage anyone to follow me though on a vote, but right now I've just been listening to other people's thoughts about what moves were made on day 1 to try to possibly condemn or save people. I'm likely going to try to also vote for someone I feel is suspicious but that can also give us further insight into day 1 though. (For instance if we lynch Saldana and he ends up a wolf, what does that tell us about his and Lathum's play together thus far this game.. what does it say about DT considering Saldana was basically the nail in the coffin vote today).

Well, my vote on EF is much more on the way he handled his vote on Day One, and how it fits into my picture of what the wolves are tryiong to do, although I can see your take on it as well. I am currently buying into the DT and Lathum are villagers theory, and following my "what would I do as a wolf if the village was locked onto two villagers" hypothetical if I were a wolf. And that would be to make the sort of move EF made. Neither time committing to someone in the mix, and saying relatively as little as possible. Not really to be UTR, but to avoid making any overt waves. That and voting later ("cautious" Day One voting is another trend I often see from wolves) were what led me to him.

It's not strong, but it is what it is. Obviously, I have my doubts about sal, too, having voted for him Day One, although that's more about peeking into hoop's mind than any actions saldana himself has taken. SnDvls I am not seeing yet. I need to see more from him to get a read. BK is sorta the same way with me. I'm not yet seeing why you're on him so high, and I find it sorta curious that you are blowing up that early misunderstanding thing with him, that I thought I was a simple mistake explained by cronin himself.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Alan T

wolves (or misguided villagers) are quick to jump on and thus condemning a good guy who can't talk their way out of a poor move or mistake.

EF's move doesn't feel as much like a wolf ploy or wolf misdirection to me as it just feels like him trying to find a wolf somewhere that they aren't.

I've had a bad gut feeling about Barkeep since early day 1 and have done everything I can to keep myself from acting on it up until now. I also have an odd feeling about Saldana and Sndvls right now too, just from their interaction in the game thus far.

I don't have anything that I would present as evidence to the rest of the group to try to encourage anyone to follow me though on a vote, but right now I've just been listening to other people's thoughts about what moves were made on day 1 to try to possibly condemn or save people. I'm likely going to try to also vote for someone I feel is suspicious but that can also give us further insight into day 1 though. (For instance if we lynch Saldana and he ends up a wolf, what does that tell us about his and Lathum's play together thus far this game.. what does it say about DT considering Saldana was basically the nail in the coffin vote today).

Both the vote on Oliegirl and EagleFan are probably misguided, but at this point, is there much more to go on? Still, I like your line of thinking here and since you are the one person proven good, there's a good chance I will vote with you.

[LoneStarGirl]

I made sure to jump online early this morning to see if anything juicy had happened so I could change my vote if need be. But it seems like nothing is going so I will leave it where it is.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by mccollins

5 people? Why do you keep misrepresenting the number of people in the thread?

Wait until you get to his 0.22% comment!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Can we get a clarification on this, cronin? (I mean, if it was originally in the rules or changed sometime later). If people were trying to use misinformation, the timing of this change would, of course, have a lot of bearing.

Misinformation? That's a lot of bunk. I don't know if the rules were changed or what, but that's what I thought they were -- I'm not going to intentionally lie about the rules (which are right at the top of this thread, so easy to verify if I'm lying) to mislead people. I was wrong, and I admitted it, but that's an uncool accusation.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, I see you did have that right yourself. But I would still argue the general impression was how mccollins had it. That's how I had it, too. And that's why I wondered if maybe someone was running a bit of a misinformation game on us.

You must be talking about me, since I'm the one who outright said it. Danny corrected me a post or three later, and I realized he was right. I don't know why I thought it only applied to that night, but whatevs.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

No, my power as Duke does not require me to have the vote on someone that I want to duke (or on myself to invalidate the entire lynch) as someone mentioned before. Next time my power can kick in, my vote has nothing to do with it.

I simply moved my vote to myself there because I had decided to no-lynch the day due to all of the reveals and uncertainty of us possibly killing off our own bodyguard or seer. The reason I voted myself was hopefully to allow any spy type role out there the option if they wanted to watch me at times this game if someone tries to kill me right now it would have to be the cunning wolf. No other wolf has the ability to kill me thus far.

I didn't really spell that out up till now as I was trying to be somewhat clever on the chance that they come after me hoping the spy would pick up on it.. since several people have mentioned not having any idea why I did that, I guess I was being too clever for functional purpose.

I think the spy can only catch someone if he or she follows the wolf making the kill. Of course, I could be pumping you with misinformation.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

You must be talking about me, since I'm the one who outright said it. Danny corrected me a post or three later, and I realized he was right. I don't know why I thought it only applied to that night, but whatevs.

Huh? Nothing to do with you, dude. Had no idea you were involved. You maybe asked the question that led to us looking at that. The possibility of a misinformation campaign, which I admit is a stretch, would have been more subtle and at the hands of several people from far earlier in the thread.

Is there a reason why you jump to assuming I am accusing you? I explained a couple different times in the past few posts what I meant, neither of which pointed to you if you read what I said.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, so if you think I am a wolf there is no way Saldana is one and vice versa. No way Hoops puts us on the same team.

Lathum, I need you to make me feel better about why you would have even made this post on day 1. At the point you had made this, Saldana had just shown up for the first time since the game officially started, had only made 3 posts I believe (1 to defend you, 1 to laugh at me for already looking at him as a possible wolf and 1 to check in).

I'm having a pretty tough time trying to decide why you would make this post in such a way here. I've already said that I am not voting you today barring some new information from someone, but I still am trying to figure out what several people's play were on day 1.

This post feels like it is saying one thing, but with a different intended purpose to me.

[Danny]

No new action this morning. What a difference compared to day one.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Danny

No new action this morning. What a difference compared to day one.

I don't think I like your plan of waiting to see where I go with my vote and then just following me there by the way. While I usually feel really good about my gut decisions in games (even when blatently incorrect!) and it makes it easy for me to push my agenda in games (regardless if I am good or evil) if people blindly follow me... Doing so tells me absolutely nothing about you... Other than you're trying to blend in.

I'd rather people pick out whom they think would make the most sense for a vote, explain why they feel that way and give an explanation why that choice is better than someone else. Even if it is to vote Lathum and/or DT again today and you disagree with me that you feel that risk is the best choice today, I'd like to see people make cases for why they believe that.

I was very tempted to vote for you this morning to see if you still followed my vote, but decided to be nice since I haven't played many games with you

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I don't think I like your plan of waiting to see where I go with my vote and then just following me there by the way. While I usually feel really good about my gut decisions in games (even when blatently incorrect!) and it makes it easy for me to push my agenda in games (regardless if I am good or evil) if people blindly follow me... Doing so tells me absolutely nothing about you... Other than you're trying to blend in.

I'd rather people pick out whom they think would make the most sense for a vote, explain why they feel that way and give an explanation why that choice is better than someone else. Even if it is to vote Lathum and/or DT again today and you disagree with me that you feel that risk is the best choice today, I'd like to see people make cases for why they believe that.

I was very tempted to vote for you this morning to see if you still followed my vote, but decided to be nice since I haven't played many games with you

lol, in that case I probably would not have followed your vote .

I still feel that limiting the wolves to use their cunning wolf is a good plan and don't like the fact that both Targo and Lathum if one is a wolf could now conceal the cunning wolf's identity without risking themselves. Between the two, I feel better about lynching Lathum because if Daddy is the BG that would be a huge loss. If Lathum is the fake seer, it could actually help us.

So I will stick with my day one vote for now.

Vote Lathum

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Huh? Nothing to do with you, dude. Had no idea you were involved. You maybe asked the question that led to us looking at that. The possibility of a misinformation campaign, which I admit is a stretch, would have been more subtle and at the hands of several people from far earlier in the thread.

Is there a reason why you jump to assuming I am accusing you? I explained a couple different times in the past few posts what I meant, neither of which pointed to you if you read what I said.

I'm the one who mistakenly said that the wolves could only kill someone who voted for them that day. That's what you were talking about, right?

[claphamsa]

I dunno, Danny seems to be bothering me. I duno why

anyone else getting a devios vibe from him? Am I just crazy?


(back to silence)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Lathum, I need you to make me feel better about why you would have even made this post on day 1. At the point you had made this, Saldana had just shown up for the first time since the game officially started, had only made 3 posts I believe (1 to defend you, 1 to laugh at me for already looking at him as a possible wolf and 1 to check in).

I'm having a pretty tough time trying to decide why you would make this post in such a way here. I've already said that I am not voting you today barring some new information from someone, but I still am trying to figure out what several people's play were on day 1.

This post feels like it is saying one thing, but with a different intended purpose to me.

I've felt the same way as you, Alan, but it seems they're working so closely together, with the same opinions, then saying there's no way they could both be wolves, hoping to get one semi-cleared if the other comes up wolf or something. As I typed this, it made me wonder if they were masons, and I thought about just nixing the post, but then I remembered that Lathum can't be a mason, since he's one of the seer types (note that by saying the word seer, I am in no way hinting at being a seer).

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I dunno, Danny seems to be bothering me. I duno why

anyone else getting a devios vibe from him? Am I just crazy?


(back to silence)

I am getting something...but I can't explain it. CR is bothering me too...

[Danny]

At this point, I'm just as likely to be bad as anyone else. More than anything, I am little frustrated that I don't have a good feeling about anyone.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Can we get a clarification on this, cronin? (I mean, if it was originally in the rules or changed sometime later). If people were trying to use misinformation, the timing of this change would, of course, have a lot of bearing.

If this has been a source of confusion, please forgive me. The cunning wolf may kill any player on any night. All other wolves may only kill players who have voted for them at some point in the game. This, in fact, is a change from the rule as originally conceived. This rule only includes final votes, not votes that are later unvoted, but it does include all final votes made throughout the game. If anybody is still confused pm me and I'll craft a specific example to make it clearer.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Danny

At this point, I'm just as likely to be bad as anyone else. More than anything, I am little frustrated that I don't have a good feeling about anyone.

+1

[DaddyTorgo]

i've got a crazy day today it appears (silly ADD boss changing his mind last minute) but i will pop on at lunch and see what's up and vote

[st.cronin]

I have only found 3 votes:

oliegirl - 1 - EagleFan (943)
EagleFan - 1 - Chief Rum (1000)
Lathum - 1 - Danny (1015)

[Alan T]

Day 1 vote flow:

(196) Barkeep votes Sndvls [1] Snd
(204) Kwhit votes Mrs.Schmidty [1] Snd [1] MS
(250) DaddyTorgo votes Lathum [1] Snd [1] MS [1] L
(270) Passacaglia votes Oliegirl [1] Snd [1] MS [1] L [1] O
(278) Kwhit UNVOTES Mrs.Schmidty [1] Snd [1] L [1] O
(278) Kwhit votes Lathum [2] L [1] Snd [1] O
(283) Barkeep UNVOTES Sndvls [2] L [1] O
(283) Barkeep votes Lathum [3] L [1] O
(291) Claphamsa votes Schmidty [3] L [1] O [1] Schm
(294) Render votes Lathum [4] L [1] O [1] Schm
(326) Alan votes Saldana [4] L [1] O [1] Schm [1] Sal
(339) Lathum votes DaddyTorgo [4] L [1] DT [1] O [1] Schm [1] Sal
(362) Eaglefan votes Mrs.Schmidty [4] L [1] DT [1] O [1] Schm [1] Sal [1] M.S
(394) Schmidty votes Eaglefan [4] L [1] DT [1] O [1] Schm [1] Sal [1] M.S [1] EF
(431) Danny votes Lathum [5] L [1] DT [1] O [1] Schm [1] Sal [1] M.S [1] EF
(464) Alan UNVOTES Saldana [5] L [1] DT [1] O [1] Schm [1] M.S [1] EF
(464) Alan votes Lathum [6] L [1] DT [1] O [1] Schm [1] M.S [1] EF
(527) Claphamsa UNVOTES Schmidty [6] L [1] DT [1] O [1] M.S [1] EF
(527) Claphamsa votes kwhit [6] L [1] DT [1] O [1] M.S [1] EF [1] Kwh
(538) Lonestargirl votes DaddyTorgo [6] L [2] DT [1] O [1] M.S [1] EF [1] Kwh
(556) PackerFanatic votes DaddyTorgo [6] L [3] DT [1] O [1] M.S [1] EF [1] Kwh
(580) Sndvls votes Eaglefan [6] L [3] DT [2] EF [1] O [1] M.S [1] Kwh
(594) Chief Rum votes Saldana [6] L [3] DT [2] EF [1] O [1] M.S [1] Kwh [1] Sal
(596) Saldana votes Mrs.Schmidty [6] L [3] DT [2] EF [2] M.S [1] O [1] Kwh [1] Sal
(604) Oliegirl votes Mrs.Schmidty [6] L [3] DT [3] M.S [2] EF [1] O [1] Kwh [1] Sal
(605) Mccollins votes DaddyTorgo [6] L [4] DT [3] M.S [2] EF [1] O [1] Kwh [1] Sal
(646) Claphamsa UNVOTES Kwhit [6] L [4] DT [3] M.S [2] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(646) Claphamsa votes DaddyTorgo [6] L [5] DT [3] M.S [2] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(650) Telle votes Lathum [7] L [5] DT [3] M.S [2] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(659) Sndvls UNVOTES Eaglefan [7] L [5] DT [3] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(659) Sndvls votes DaddyTorgo [7] L [6] DT [3] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(676) Mrs.Schmidy votes DaddyTorgo [7] L [7] DT [3] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(686) Alan T UNVOTES Lathum [7] DT [6] L [3] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(686) Alan votes DaddyTorgo [8] DT [6] L [3] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(691) Saldana UNVOTES Mrs.Schmidty [8] DT [6] L [2] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(691) Saldana votes DaddyTorgo [9] DT [6] L [2] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(700) Oliegirl UNVOTES Mrs.Schmidty [9] DT [6] L [1] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(707) Oliegirl votes Daddytorgo [10] DT [6] L [1] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(709) Alan UNVOTES Daddytorgo [9] DT [6] L [1] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(709) Alan votes Lathum [9] DT [7] L [1] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(725) Goldeneagle votes DaddyTorgo [10] DT [7] L [1] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(745) Passacaglia UNVOTES Oliegirl [10] DT [7] L [1] M.S [1] EF [1] Sal
(745) Passacaglia votes Lathum [10] DT [8] L [1] M.S [1] EF [1] Sal
(778) Alan UNVOTES Lathum [10] DT [7] L [1] M.S [1] EF [1] Sal
(778) Alan votes Alan [10] DT [7] L [1] M.S [1] EF [1] Sal [1] Al

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I've felt the same way as you, Alan, but it seems they're working so closely together, with the same opinions, then saying there's no way they could both be wolves, hoping to get one semi-cleared if the other comes up wolf or something. As I typed this, it made me wonder if they were masons, and I thought about just nixing the post, but then I remembered that Lathum can't be a mason, since he's one of the seer types (note that by saying the word seer, I am in no way hinting at being a seer).

I don't think I finished my thought in the first sentence -- it seems like they're being so blunt about having the same opinions, that they're being way too obvious about it.

[Passacaglia]

(596) Saldana votes Mrs.Schmidty [6] L [3] DT [2] EF [2] M.S [1] O [1] Kwh [1] Sal
(604) Oliegirl votes Mrs.Schmidty [6] L [3] DT [3] M.S [2] EF [1] O [1] Kwh [1] Sal
(605) Mccollins votes DaddyTorgo [6] L [4] DT [3] M.S [2] EF [1] O [1] Kwh [1] Sal
(646) Claphamsa UNVOTES Kwhit [6] L [4] DT [3] M.S [2] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(646) Claphamsa votes DaddyTorgo [6] L [5] DT [3] M.S [2] EF [1] O [1] Sal

Thanks for doing this, Alan. This part looks interesting to me, since it gave us a three-horse race for a brief moment, then brought it back to two. If we're looking at villager-villager yesterday, then I wonder if attempts were made to save Mrs. Schmidty.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by RendeR

*yawns ignominously*


Are we done yet?

Well I am.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Alan T

(250) DaddyTorgo votes Lathum [1] Snd [1] MS [1] L
(283) Barkeep votes Lathum [3] L [1] O
(580) Sndvls votes Eaglefan [6] L [3] DT [2] EF [1] O [1] M.S [1] Kwh
(596) Saldana votes Mrs.Schmidty [6] L [3] DT [2] EF [2] M.S [1] O [1] Kwh [1] Sal
(650) Telle votes Lathum [7] L [5] DT [3] M.S [2] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(659) Sndvls votes DaddyTorgo [7] L [6] DT [3] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(691) Saldana votes DaddyTorgo [9] DT [6] L [2] M.S [1] EF [1] O [1] Sal
(745) Passacaglia UNVOTES Oliegirl [10] DT [7] L [1] M.S [1] EF [1] Sal
(745) Passacaglia votes Lathum [10] DT [8] L [1] M.S [1] EF [1] Sal

The votes I'm having the toughest time digesting from day 1 are above..

DT: Lathum is absolutely correct, you did jump on Kwhit's thoughts about Lathum being a possible wolf really fast. In case if you really are a bodyguard, this was a pretty risky move for you to make as the bodyguard, to jump right on someone else's idea and be the first vote even before they get a chance to.

BK: Something about how BK framed alot of his discussion to start the day 1 bothered me. I even partially revealed and planned on pushing for a BK lynch for day 1 because of it but got stopped in my tracks when Cronin stepped in. This vote for Lathum didn't bother me as much as DT's vote for Lathum however as it seemed at least consistent with the idea that BK was pushing at the start (That Hoops wouldn't have picked more than 1 of Lathum, BK or myself for a wolf and that BK felt Lathum was the most likely candidate of the three).

Sndvls: Not sure why Sndvls is bothering me this game, but it might be because of the same reason Saldana bothers me this game.. a respect I have for their play and as a wolf they could be scary and get by for a while before drawing attention. Sndvls vote for Eaglefan earlier on just because something about him is bothering you seemed a bit off to me when I read through, but the part that bugs me is you later move your vote to DT after some of the ground between DT and Lathum had been recovered to supposedly keep everyone honest and keep the vote close. You could have done that earlier with your vote as well when Lathum had a bit bigger of a lead, but you chose to go elsewhere instead.

Saldana: Everyone understands that you and Lathum are great friends, and you both seemed fine with openly supporting each other's play earlier in day 1 despite not having any idea if the other one might be a wolf. Yet when it is time to get your vote on paper, you seemed to disown Lathum here and vote Mrs.Schmidty when you could have instead made it a much closer fight between Lathum and DT and possibly help save your buddy. Later on however once DT had pulled into a 2 vote lead over Lathum, you felt that you should move your vote to DT once it almost became meaningless to do so. Now I don't know anyone in Real life that I play WW with on this board, but there are a good number of players from WW here that I really enjoy playing with and in most cases try to support them staying alive on Day 1 at least until we have further information (such as what I have done with Hoopsguy in previous games). If I were in your shoes, I would have likely voted DT earlier on to try to save my friend whom I was earlier campaigning with. This just seems inconsistant and I can't figure out what the reason for that is.

Telle - Right when DT seemed to have almost caught up all of the ground between him and Lathum, out of the blue Telle throws virtually the only vote that Lathum got at all on Wednesday to try to spread back the distance once again. Not sure if there is much more behind this besides Telle not getting a wolf vibe from DT as she had said, but if DT ends up being bad, this looks bad for Telle.

Passacaglia: Pass's move here seems like what could be interpreted as a good villager play to save the supposedly revealed bodyguard.. but this case is special as it would have been at the expense of a possibly revealed seer.. That is not what bothers me about this move though, the only thing that bothers me here is I could swear that I've been in a game with Pass as a wolf where he did this exact same move off of someone when they revealed just to look better.

[Passacaglia]

Passacaglia: Pass's move here seems like what could be interpreted as a good villager play to save the supposedly revealed bodyguard.. but this case is special as it would have been at the expense of a possibly revealed seer.. That is not what bothers me about this move though, the only thing that bothers me here is I could swear that I've been in a game with Pass as a wolf where he did this exact same move off of someone when they revealed just to look better.

FTR, I'm not sure which game you're talking about, but isn't it a pretty common wolf move to take your vote off someone who reveals? Anyway, I didn't taky my vote off someone who revealed -- I took my vote off oliegirl.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

FTR, I'm not sure which game you're talking about, but isn't it a pretty common wolf move to take your vote off someone who reveals? Anyway, I didn't taky my vote off someone who revealed -- I took my vote off oliegirl.

I worded it poorly there. your vote was obviously intended to try to save DT though there after his reveal. Which like I said might not be a huge deal, it just reminded me of something you have done before as a wolf though.

[Passacaglia]

DT: Lathum is absolutely correct, you did jump on Kwhit's thoughts about Lathum being a possible wolf really fast. In case if you really are a bodyguard, this was a pretty risky move for you to make as the bodyguard, to jump right on someone else's idea and be the first vote even before they get a chance to.

Telle - Right when DT seemed to have almost caught up all of the ground between him and Lathum, out of the blue Telle throws virtually the only vote that Lathum got at all on Wednesday to try to spread back the distance once again. Not sure if there is much more behind this besides Telle not getting a wolf vibe from DT as she had said, but if DT ends up being bad, this looks bad for Telle.

I'm not sure I understand all the doubt in DT's reveal. There's only one bodyguard, so it's not like the seer reveal, where we would need two more reveals to know something is up -- if DT is not the bodyguard, it's an easy decision IMO for the bodyguard to reveal, and we get a wolf, and even then, the BG might be able to keep himself alive for a while. Since there's been no other reveal, I don't see why anyone would doubt DT.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I worded it poorly there. your vote was obviously intended to try to save DT though there after his reveal. Which like I said might not be a huge deal, it just reminded me of something you have done before as a wolf though.

Could be, but I still don't know which time you mean. I'm not trying to argue the point -- I just like thinking back on times when I was a wolf, but since I don't remember this one, I missed my chance. No big deal.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm not sure I understand all the doubt in DT's reveal. There's only one bodyguard, so it's not like the seer reveal, where we would need two more reveals to know something is up -- if DT is not the bodyguard, it's an easy decision IMO for the bodyguard to reveal, and we get a wolf, and even then, the BG might be able to keep himself alive for a while. Since there's been no other reveal, I don't see why anyone would doubt DT.

Perhaps the bodyguard disagrees with you and feels that he can bust DT at any point later, and wants to stay quiet for now to keep himself safe longer and perhaps try to figure out more info on who might be a wolf based on play involving DT. Since if he dies anyways, he is revealed at death as the bodyguard, the only time this becomes a problem is if the real bodyguard ends up possibly on the lynch block..

Or perhaps I'm just trying to still create some doubt in DT's reveal to keep the wolves from trying to go after him if they think that we might still possibly lynch him.

Either way in this case I don't see the harm in letting both DT and Lathum live a bit longer to let the wolves have to push the buttons to kill them off instead of us doing it for them.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Thanks for doing this, Alan. This part looks interesting to me, since it gave us a three-horse race for a brief moment, then brought it back to two. If we're looking at villager-villager yesterday, then I wonder if attempts were made to save Mrs. Schmidty.

I think this is the best thing I have to go on right now.

VOTE MRS. SCHMIDTY

[Alan T]

I really don't see those votes as trying to save Mrs.Schmidty. This has no bearing on my feelings of if Mrs.S is a wolf or not, but the place, time and by whom those votes were made feel more to be a referendum on the Lathum vs DT debate than anything to do with Mrs.S.

[Telle]

My Day 1 vote is really quite simple. I didn't believe Lathum's reveal (and still have my doubts) and didn't see any real reason for voting for DaddyTorgo beyond "everyone else is doing it", and they were the only real candidates. And it was plenty early enough that it was far from being any "final nail in the coffin".. especially as you can clearly see that the momentum ended up swinging the other way towards DT.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I am getting something...but I can't explain it. CR is bothering me too...

CR is definitely popping my spidey sense.


For now:

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I really don't see those votes as trying to save Mrs.Schmidty. This has no bearing on my feelings of if Mrs.S is a wolf or not, but the place, time and by whom those votes were made feel more to be a referendum on the Lathum vs DT debate than anything to do with Mrs.S.

I agree with you about mickey c's vote, which was probably made at the exact same time as olie's. But not clap's -- his in fact came along with thanking telle for the vote count, which makes me think he had an eye on the count when he was making it.

[Barkeep49]

Now that I know Alan is clear, and knowing that I am good, I just don't see Hoops passing on all three of us. That only leaves Lathum. Even if he's telling the truth, which I was more inclined to believe yesterday, he still might be bad for the village as the fake seer (just as a cultist is bad for the village).

Vote Lathum

[oliegirl]

I'm glad there weren't 7 pages of posts to catch up on this morning! We've been slammed at work this morning so I'm not sure how much I'll be able to be around between now and noon...

I will say that my vote yesterday on Mrs S, was basically a "I'm not voting for Lathum or DT" vote, at that time at least. As I've gone over already, I changed my mind in the debacle with both DT and I getting confused and referencing the wrong people (his quote, my vote)...

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Based on the rule set, 38% if we count wolves. 28% if we don't.

i think your decimal points are off...we have a 4.8% chance of finding one roled player out of 21....the chances of finding a second one are also 1 in 21, which is a 1 in 441 chance of both things happening at the same time.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by mccollins

5 people? Why do you keep misrepresenting the number of people in the thread?

i'm not...you skipped a post or two of mine...i realize there were alot of people in the thread...my point was 7 of those already had their votes on lathum, so that only leaves a handful (roughly 5) that could have influence the vote in DTs favor

[Alan T]

I don't really like any of the current people that have votes on them as votes for today.

I might change my mind later on this.. I really want to vote Barkeep right now but instead will

Vote Saldana

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by saldana

i think your decimal points are off...we have a 4.8% chance of finding one roled player out of 21....the chances of finding a second one are also 1 in 21, which is a 1 in 441 chance of both things happening at the same time.

CR's numbers are for finding ANY two roled players. Yours are for finding two "called" roled players.

[Telle]

I haven't played in awhile.. but I'm used to Barkeep giving in-depth analysis. Has he been more quiet like this lately?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Lathum, I need you to make me feel better about why you would have even made this post on day 1. At the point you had made this, Saldana had just shown up for the first time since the game officially started, had only made 3 posts I believe (1 to defend you, 1 to laugh at me for already looking at him as a possible wolf and 1 to check in).

I'm having a pretty tough time trying to decide why you would make this post in such a way here. I've already said that I am not voting you today barring some new information from someone, but I still am trying to figure out what several people's play were on day 1.

This post feels like it is saying one thing, but with a different intended purpose to me.

DT was discussing the possibility of a second candidate on day 1 and bought up Saldana. I then said if DT thinks I am a wolf then Sal shouldn't be the second candidate becaus Hoops wouldn't put us on the same team.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

DT was discussing the possibility of a second candidate on day 1 and bought up Saldana. I then said if DT thinks I am a wolf then Sal shouldn't be the second candidate becaus Hoops wouldn't put us on the same team.

But I still don't understand this arguement.. You clarifying this seems to suggest that you actually would have agreed with DT then making Saldana a second choice.. You just said yourself, if one of you is a wolf, likely the other one isn't.. So if there is at least a decent chance you are on different teams, having you two as the two candidates for a lynch seems to be a good way to go in order to track voting history if one of you is a wolf and the other one isn't..

I mean, correct me if I am wrong, but if DT isn't sure that you are a wolf, wouldn't it make more sense that he would feel either you or Sal might be one but not both? Since you presume to know you aren't a wolf, what does Sal being the second candidate have to do with you at all.. wouldn't that make you then suspect Sal more?

I guess I'm just not following the relevance in your line of thinking here.. I think from where I am sitting, your arguement even gives a better reason to have made Saldana a second candidate on day one with you, not less of a reason.

[EagleFan]

I'll be as brief as I can with any potential explanation of earlier moves and hunches. I am between meetings and will most likely be unavailable for the rest of the day before the deadline (unless I can sneak in duing lunch).


Day 1 vote of Mrs Schmidty was based purely off needing to vote for someone and she was as good of a place as any at that point. Later I did begin to get a little suspicious of her as she seems to be acting a little like a first time wolf. Maybe even moreso now after I look back as I could have believed new player exhuberance a bit but she seems to have backed off a bit after it was called out.

Had worked over night and then had a dentist appointment to get my crown (not sure why that word had vanished from my mind yesterday when trying to say what I was getting done and the word cap kept coming out) so I had limited time to really see what the many pages were all about but had no reason to move my vote.

Looking at how yesterday's vote went I think that it is likely the wolves were setting up Lathum or he is a wolf who was being protected (which may mean he is the wolf who can kill anyone regardless of vote). That also tells me that DT is close to a CoT. Unfortunately we don't have a true result to work with after the vote.

On to oliegirl, I still think there is something to be said of the idea of at least one female wolf. I don't doubt that there may be more. I quoted LSG's post about the idea and many of oligirl's posts to illustrate this. The actions within those posts could point to oliegirl being wolfish as she seemed to jump into the save Lathum mix to vote for DT right after she declared that she was not going to change her vote. While the hoops vote is being downplayed I still think that needs examined.

Sundvils is really getting me wondering as well. He has not made many posts and expresses that he has feelings about different people but I have not seen any explanation for these feelings. He hasn't quite made my CoD yet though.

Mrs Schmidty's fate may lie in oliegirl's hands. I would not doubt that one of the two are wolves but they seem to be on opposite sides so I doubt that they both are (but I would not be surprised if LSG was a wolf, not accusing at this polint just saying that it could play into the "there is one female wolf" line, try to get everyone thinking that there could be just one female wolf, especially if one may be in trouble of a vote, and then when that one turns up it may take the heat off the other(s) ).

CR, I can't quite get a read on him yet. I was a wolf with him last game and he doesn't seem to be playing it the same way that he did for that game.

Pass, I have no idea at this point. I always think he is a wolf. Hell, even when I was a wolf recently and he wasn't I still suspected that he was.



CoT:
alan t


Almost CoT:
DT


CoD:
Lathum
Mrs Schmidty
oliegirl
PB - I know he's not playing but he's always on my CoD since he has been on the opposite team as me every game but one (it just wouldn't seem right for me not to include him )


Keep an eye on:
Sundvils
LSG

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Wait until you get to his 0.22% comment!

if my math is wrong, please correct it, seriously..i could very easily be wrong.