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Old 05-07-2008, 05:23 PM   #1001
Abe Sargent
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Quote:
Originally Posted by path12 View Post
If you'd like to pick out a wolf for me I'll vote for them, no matter the color.

Which proves my point that you'd only vote a white piece now based on evidence or proof, not mere suspicion. Your case against Lathum is...weak at best. But he's black, so you're voting for him. Hey might as well, even if you're wrong you take out ad admitted black bishop, one of only three Black pieces left that can move any number of spaces.

You can't sell me that's mere coincidence.
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Old 05-07-2008, 05:23 PM   #1002
st.cronin
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We're actually probably more likely to find a wolf on the white team than the black team at this point, on the theory that the wolves were evenly balanced on both squads.
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Old 05-07-2008, 05:48 PM   #1003
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Does Clap have an explanation for where he has been? He's been really, really quiet this game.

That said, Lathum's reaction does remind me of his play in other games where he gets caught or busted, his reaction is to get really mad and do the "throw his hands up in frustration" thing, and then come back calmer and have a way out of it...I believe he did this in the cruise game and if I'm remembering correctly, he was a wolf (will go check shortly).

Anyway, for me, right now, I'm looking at Clap and Lathum for tomorrow. Out for a while, have some errands to run...
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Old 05-07-2008, 05:51 PM   #1004
st.cronin
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Old 05-07-2008, 05:53 PM   #1005
oliegirl
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Just checked the cruise thread, Lathum wasn't a wolf but he was the helper and had a role to protect...I know I've seen this M.O. from him before, I just don't have time to go back through games to try to find it. Anyway, I'm still looking at him for a possible vote tomorrow.
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Old 05-07-2008, 05:56 PM   #1006
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OK, let me try and recap where I'm coming from starting from the beginning. First we had me asking Jackal about the pieces around him, since I could see the white knight and wanted to try and either vouch for his claim or discover a lie. His answer:

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Jackal View Post
I can see five of my own pawns, an enemy pawn, and my king and queen. What's wrong with this?

Quote:
Originally Posted by path12 View Post
Because I want to try and verify that you are who you say you are, because I see the white knight. FWIW, it sounds like you are.

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Originally Posted by path12 View Post
According to my board, what he's said makes sense. I can't see the entire range he can, but based on what I do see he's been accurate.

Now Lathum comes in and asks:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I confused as hell.

how does anyone have any clue where soeone is at on the board?

This strikes me as odd, because I got a PM telling me where everyone I could see around me was. So I went back to the rules and the only piece who would not have gotten a PM saying who was in their view would be a pawn that did not move. This has since been verified by Pass -- a roled piece that was unable to move for some reason would still have gotten a PM. I am aware from my view of the board that all the white pawns moved night 1 to a certainty of 90%. So I respond to Lathum:

Quote:
Originally Posted by path12 View Post
You need to move.

After thinking this over a bit and making an assumption that maybe a wolf could not move AND kill in one night (this has since been proven wrong by Pass -- a wolf CAN do both), I decide to make my vote:

Quote:
Originally Posted by path12 View Post
VOTE LATHUM

He is either a black pawn or a wolf. Here is my reasoning.

1) Lathum did not know how anyone would know where other pieces would be on the board.

2) The only way I can see in the rules that this would be the case would be if he was a pawn that did not move last turn.

3) I believe for various reasons that all white pawns moved last turn.

4) I am assuming that a wolf who makes a kill cannot also move on the board.

That either makes Lathum a black pawn who did not move, in which case my question is why on earth not? Or a wolf who made a kill last night, did not get to move, and therefore did not realize that PM's went out giving positions of pieces around one.

Airtight? Nope. Enough for a day 2 vote? Yep.

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Originally Posted by st.cronin View Post
Path, 1) actually makes me think Lathum is less likely to be a wolf. I assume the wolves have been building their own board, and are able to name several players locations.

I'm not sure how this relates to Lathum's question above, but in light of my assumption #4 being wrong I think it's a fair point.

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Originally Posted by st.cronin View Post
If he's a pawn, he may still have moved, and is just not able to see anybody. Or, the pieces he can see, he can't identify as particular players. That would likely be the case for anybody on the black side, since only one piece has been matched to a player. Your analysis actually has changed my mind on Lathum: (unvotes)

We now know from Pass that any move would have prompted a PM with locations of those around you. If he was a role piece and was blocked, he gets a PM. The only chance this could be the case was if he moved as a pawn to a space where there was nobody within one space of him. Knowing that there were black pawns in A5 and E5, there is only one, possibly two spaces he could have moved to that would cause this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by st.cronin View Post
Also, I don't think its clear at all that Lathum is a pawn, or even black, based on MY board knowledge. There are other possibilities.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
actualy it makes me someone who has no idea whats going on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I guess I need to mount a feeble defense.

If I was a wolf why would I come out asking questions like that.

You want to lynch me for having no idea what is going on thats fine I guess. I really have no defense considering it's day 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I tried to move last night and was blocked

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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
well, looks like I am going down.

I'm the black bishop

I can confirm that Jackyl and PAth are both white ( assumonig my PM Partner isn't a wolf lying to me)

If I understand the game that makes Cronin white also

He's certainly correct in that I am a white piece. But my point is this: these claims don't all add up in regards to what we know is fact. If he was a bishop and was blocked, he would have received a PM from Pass telling him who was around him. If he's not a bishop then the only way he would not have gotten the PM would be if he was a black pawn and just happened to move to the very few spots where he couldn't see anything.

I'm more than willing to be wrong here. But someone will have to explain how he could not be aware that you get the locations of those around you except in one specific instance, and why he then spun different explanations around it. Because it's not a matter of move time, or being blocked, or trying to kill the black piece, because Pass has answered those questions.

If someone wants to vouch for him, I'll look in other directions right now.
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Old 05-07-2008, 05:58 PM   #1007
path12
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Which proves my point that you'd only vote a white piece now based on evidence or proof, not mere suspicion. Your case against Lathum is...weak at best. But he's black, so you're voting for him. Hey might as well, even if you're wrong you take out ad admitted black bishop, one of only three Black pieces left that can move any number of spaces.

You can't sell me that's mere coincidence.

I don't have to sell you anything, all I have to do is love you. WW is all about pointing out contradictions and figuring things out based on incomplete information, which is all I'm trying to do.
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Old 05-07-2008, 06:03 PM   #1008
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Path, you haven't addressed my main objection, which is that Lathum appeared to me to be asking how we knew where THE JACKAL was, not where a particular piece was.

And even if Lathum was a wolf, why would he lie about which piece he was? He would still be the bishop, right? I just think you're way off base here.
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Old 05-07-2008, 06:22 PM   #1009
The Jackal
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Jackal, did you move?

I did. But it seems irrelevant if you were blocked, anyways.
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Old 05-07-2008, 06:33 PM   #1010
path12
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Path, you haven't addressed my main objection, which is that Lathum appeared to me to be asking how we knew where THE JACKAL was, not where a particular piece was.

If that's the case, then my goodness, why didn't he just say so? Reading back through the posts I can understand that, but his response didn't come across that way to me.

I'd really love to look in other directions, I just can't quit this one until I get some clarification.......
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Old 05-07-2008, 06:35 PM   #1011
st.cronin
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Path I think we need to put some pressure on the utr folks - ntndeacon, claphamsa, render, oliegirl, maybe somebody else I'm forgetting.
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Old 05-07-2008, 06:43 PM   #1012
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I can't recall ntn saying anything at all except for his votes.
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Old 05-07-2008, 07:52 PM   #1013
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Hehe, I knew that you or anyone I was a wolf with would appreciate that!

Just re-reading (I totally haven't caught up on my own game ), but I appreciated that.
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Old 05-07-2008, 09:01 PM   #1014
Chief Rum
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Heh...this is a weird game. Good luck, black.
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Old 05-07-2008, 09:02 PM   #1015
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Weird in a good, if confusing, way, I should add.
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Old 05-07-2008, 09:31 PM   #1016
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Originally Posted by st.cronin View Post
Path I think we need to put some pressure on the utr folks - ntndeacon, claphamsa, render, oliegirl, maybe somebody else I'm forgetting.



Who's UTR?? I've ben as active as I can be this game =)


damn =)
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Old 05-07-2008, 10:46 PM   #1017
The Jackal
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A little pressure is a good idea. NTN hasn't said much. He could just not have much to say, but there's usually at least one wolf who shuts up and tries to slide through the game. I could see voting for Lathum, but I'm not convinced he's a wolf, and though he doesn't seem to want to be involved anymore, I'd rather nail a wolf at this point.

vote NTN
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Old 05-07-2008, 11:26 PM   #1018
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Originally Posted by path12 View Post
OK, let me try and recap where I'm coming from starting from the beginning. First we had me asking Jackal about the pieces around him, since I could see the white knight and wanted to try and either vouch for his claim or discover a lie. His answer:







Now Lathum comes in and asks:



This strikes me as odd, because I got a PM telling me where everyone I could see around me was. So I went back to the rules and the only piece who would not have gotten a PM saying who was in their view would be a pawn that did not move. This has since been verified by Pass -- a roled piece that was unable to move for some reason would still have gotten a PM. I am aware from my view of the board that all the white pawns moved night 1 to a certainty of 90%. So I respond to Lathum:



After thinking this over a bit and making an assumption that maybe a wolf could not move AND kill in one night (this has since been proven wrong by Pass -- a wolf CAN do both), I decide to make my vote:





I'm not sure how this relates to Lathum's question above, but in light of my assumption #4 being wrong I think it's a fair point.



We now know from Pass that any move would have prompted a PM with locations of those around you. If he was a role piece and was blocked, he gets a PM. The only chance this could be the case was if he moved as a pawn to a space where there was nobody within one space of him. Knowing that there were black pawns in A5 and E5, there is only one, possibly two spaces he could have moved to that would cause this.











He's certainly correct in that I am a white piece. But my point is this: these claims don't all add up in regards to what we know is fact. If he was a bishop and was blocked, he would have received a PM from Pass telling him who was around him. If he's not a bishop then the only way he would not have gotten the PM would be if he was a black pawn and just happened to move to the very few spots where he couldn't see anything.

I'm more than willing to be wrong here. But someone will have to explain how he could not be aware that you get the locations of those around you except in one specific instance, and why he then spun different explanations around it. Because it's not a matter of move time, or being blocked, or trying to kill the black piece, because Pass has answered those questions.

If someone wants to vouch for him, I'll look in other directions right now.

Unless some other Black Bishop pair wants to come out and refute Lathum, I'm pretty much sure Lathum is who he is claiming to be.
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Old 05-07-2008, 11:30 PM   #1019
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Okay. Whoever the two sneaky white pawns are that have advanced all the way past the line of neutrality (the ones in in c5, d5), i suggest you stop your advance now.
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Old 05-08-2008, 12:58 AM   #1020
Neon_Chaos
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Vote No Lynch
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Old 05-08-2008, 02:03 AM   #1021
ntndeacon
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I totally understand the votes on me. I would prefer to focus on others of course, like a real wolf. But knows y'all dont know that iaint

well except for the Wolves lol
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Old 05-08-2008, 06:08 AM   #1022
Narcizo
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Okay. Whoever the two sneaky white pawns are that have advanced all the way past the line of neutrality (the ones in in c5, d5), i suggest you stop your advance now.

I wasn't aware anyone accepted my proposal, the only positive confirmation I got was st.cronin and that was hardly a cast-iron agreement, more "I'm not going to move anyway". Why on earth should they pay attention to what the enemy says?
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Old 05-08-2008, 06:59 AM   #1023
Narcizo
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Originally Posted by st.cronin View Post
We're actually probably more likely to find a wolf on the white team than the black team at this point, on the theory that the wolves were evenly balanced on both squads.

Quote:
Originally Posted by st.cronin View Post
Path, you haven't addressed my main objection, which is that Lathum appeared to me to be asking how we knew where THE JACKAL was, not where a particular piece was.

And even if Lathum was a wolf, why would he lie about which piece he was? He would still be the bishop, right? I just think you're way off base here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by st.cronin View Post
Path I think we need to put some pressure on the utr folks - ntndeacon, claphamsa, render, oliegirl, maybe somebody else I'm forgetting.

Very interesting cronin. So you, as a white piece, are saying that we should be looking to lynch someone who might be a wolf and might be on our side rather than lynch someone who might be a wolf and is 100% certain the enemy? In fact, you think we shouldn't be targeting people on our own side?

I wonder why a white piece would think like that. Let's see,

1) you actually think taking, at best, a long shot at lynching an UTR wolf with uncertain allegiance is better than a 100/0 shot at lynching the enemy with just about as good a chance at hitting a wolf anyway, or
2) you're a wolf and you want to even up the tally by getting a lynch on a white piece. Dunno if NTN is white or not, but I'm fairly sure you have had the means to determine that.
3) you, altruistically, don't really care about the whole point of the game (capturing Neon) and just want to find wolves.

Me? I'll take the shot on someone I'm 100% sure is the enemy and 25% is a wolf over someone I'm 100% sure is on the white side and 60-70% sure is a wolf. It's your lucky day I guess. Sorry if that makes me the bad guy here. Push it up to 100% and I would vote to lynch you.

Vote Lathum

Just to clarify this. The wolves want equality between the black and white pieces. We are going to have a white villager night killed tonight, barring the wolves targeting the king or getting blocked. But the wolves would like to even things up further by getting a white piece lynched. If the white pieces want to maintain their current superiority then we need to target black pieces for lynching. I'm perfectly ok with black pieces voting for white pieces, it's natural, we're your enemy. I'm against white pieces deciding not to vote off known enemies. The black pieces are just as much our enemies as the wolves are.

Oh and Jackal how did your scan go?
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Old 05-08-2008, 07:04 AM   #1024
Narcizo
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In fact, you think we should be targeting people on our own side?

D'oh!
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Old 05-08-2008, 07:07 AM   #1025
Narcizo
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Ah! Just seen how Jackal's scan went. Well colour me suspicious that Cronin was unfortunately unable to move.
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Old 05-08-2008, 07:19 AM   #1026
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Does Clap have an explanation for where he has been? He's been really, really quiet this game.

That said, Lathum's reaction does remind me of his play in other games where he gets caught or busted, his reaction is to get really mad and do the "throw his hands up in frustration" thing, and then come back calmer and have a way out of it...I believe he did this in the cruise game and if I'm remembering correctly, he was a wolf (will go check shortly).

Anyway, for me, right now, I'm looking at Clap and Lathum for tomorrow. Out for a while, have some errands to run...


well I started out the game in Atlanta, then I was just getting back from vacation, and had to work at work, and now I have moved into my new house and have spotty iternet at best.
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Old 05-08-2008, 07:21 AM   #1027
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vote ntn
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Old 05-08-2008, 07:42 AM   #1028
Narcizo
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Not going to be around much to defend myself or my case to be honest. I'll try to pop in occasionally.
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Old 05-08-2008, 07:51 AM   #1029
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you dont have a lot of votes do you>?
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Old 05-08-2008, 08:26 AM   #1030
Sonic Youth
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Vote Path12.
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Old 05-08-2008, 09:28 AM   #1031
st.cronin
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Very interesting cronin. So you, as a white piece, are saying that we should be looking to lynch someone who might be a wolf and might be on our side rather than lynch someone who might be a wolf and is 100% certain the enemy? In fact, you think we shouldn't be targeting people on our own side?

I wonder why a white piece would think like that. Let's see,

1) you actually think taking, at best, a long shot at lynching an UTR wolf with uncertain allegiance is better than a 100/0 shot at lynching the enemy with just about as good a chance at hitting a wolf anyway, or
2) you're a wolf and you want to even up the tally by getting a lynch on a white piece. Dunno if NTN is white or not, but I'm fairly sure you have had the means to determine that.
3) you, altruistically, don't really care about the whole point of the game (capturing Neon) and just want to find wolves.

Me? I'll take the shot on someone I'm 100% sure is the enemy and 25% is a wolf over someone I'm 100% sure is on the white side and 60-70% sure is a wolf. It's your lucky day I guess. Sorry if that makes me the bad guy here. Push it up to 100% and I would vote to lynch you.


Just to clarify this. The wolves want equality between the black and white pieces. We are going to have a white villager night killed tonight, barring the wolves targeting the king or getting blocked. But the wolves would like to even things up further by getting a white piece lynched. If the white pieces want to maintain their current superiority then we need to target black pieces for lynching. I'm perfectly ok with black pieces voting for white pieces, it's natural, we're your enemy. I'm against white pieces deciding not to vote off known enemies. The black pieces are just as much our enemies as the wolves are.

Oh and Jackal how did your scan go?

I guess where we differ is that I don't believe Lathum is a wolf, so I think its stupid to vote for him.
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Old 05-08-2008, 09:28 AM   #1032
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There is something fishy in the Cronin/Lathum dynamic this game.

First the relative drive-by's by Lathum on Cronin the first two days, then Cronin votes Lathum and unvotes him. Now today we somehow have Cronin sticking up for Lathum and pushing the UTR line of thinking.

Really, if it were just about any other two people I'd think lynch one, lynch the other and we've just nabbed two wolves. The only thing I can't reconcile is that you two are too experienced as wolves to try and play this little gambit.

I believe Lathum when he says he's the black bishop and I'm pretty sure others are inclined to believe Cronin is white (or so it seems, I forget the "proof" of that fact).

That leads me to think that this isn't a pair of pieces stirring the pot here. Only one vote makes sense for me here

Vote Lathum
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Old 05-08-2008, 09:28 AM   #1033
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I guess where we differ is that I don't believe Lathum is a wolf, so I think its stupid to vote for him.

How'd your opinion change from yesterday when I think you voted for him twice (both with unvotes IIRC)
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Old 05-08-2008, 09:32 AM   #1034
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How'd your opinion change from yesterday when I think you voted for him twice (both with unvotes IIRC)

Path presented some analysis yesterday as justification for HIS vote on Lathum. His analysis actually convinced me that Lathum is probably not a wolf - I think path interpreted the facts exactly the wrong way.
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Old 05-08-2008, 09:57 AM   #1035
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Morning vote count:

Quote:
Lathum -- path12 (968), PurdueBrad (992), Narcizo (1023), jeheinz72 (1032)
claphamsa -- RendeR (995)
ntndeacon -- st.cronin (1004), The Jackal (1017), claphamsa (1027)
No Lynch -- Neon_Chaos (1020)
path12 -- Sonic Youth (1030)
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:01 AM   #1036
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I've been going back and forth on this. Do we try and win the chess game first and then go wolf hunting or vice-versa? I've got to be honest, I think it's a fustercluck if we try to do both at the same time. The problems with each are pretty obvious though:

If we go for the win at chess, we end up offing villagers (and possibly, although not necessarily likely) in the process. This hurts us from a voting standpoint to counter any wolf voting strength. PLUS they get to run rampant with night kills while we advance across the board and hope to hit the King.

If we go for the wolves first, there is still no guarantee that we'll get them. Plus, by keeping the board stagnant basically, not every player can be scanned because they may not be in view of the players with that ability. Furthermore, only one of our pieces can make the important wolf/human scan.

I guess the one possibility would be this: With the bodyguards we have left (probably 2 rooks that can prevent a night attack although I guess it is possible Hoops had this ability rather than the other rook ability) they can take turns protecting each team's wolf seer (sorry, can't remember the chess piece) which may not be a bad play and get us several scans, build a COT, and hopefully out a wolf along the way. Of course this leaves the wolves in the position of having to off the bodyguards in order to get to the seer and ultimately could expose our strongest roles (outside of the king) but it would get a ton of information out there. Does this make sense or is it crazy talk?
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:02 AM   #1037
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Also, that last plan would require us basically playing a stagnant chess board for a while in order to make things work. This may be hard given the momentum that white has and may also be hard for the black team to trust the white given their current disadvantage.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:03 AM   #1038
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I think we have to go for the wolves with our votes, there are other ways to play the chess game, but there is only one way to vote off a wolf.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:04 AM   #1039
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If we go for the win at chess, we end up offing villagers (and possibly wolves, although not necessarily likely) in the process. This hurts us from a voting standpoint to counter any wolf voting strength. PLUS they get to run rampant with night kills while we advance across the board and hope to hit the King.

Sorry, no edit and I realized I forgot a word.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:06 AM   #1040
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I wasn't aware anyone accepted my proposal, the only positive confirmation I got was st.cronin and that was hardly a cast-iron agreement, more "I'm not going to move anyway". Why on earth should they pay attention to what the enemy says?

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Old 05-08-2008, 10:06 AM   #1041
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I think we have to go for the wolves with our votes, there are other ways to play the chess game, but there is only one way to vote off a wolf.

I'm thinking the same thing. What are your opinions on my plan of having the wolf-seeing pieces reveal, the bodyguard pieces guard them (switching off one to the other each night) and getting (hopefully) a lot of scans in and a ton of information out? You're a vet player, so I'm curious if this is a good play or bad play. I know that normally reveals like this are bad but given the ability of the bodyguards to switch off, we can guarantee protection until the wolves hit the bodyguards.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:08 AM   #1042
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Also, that last plan would require us basically playing a stagnant chess board for a while in order to make things work. This may be hard given the momentum that white has and may also be hard for the black team to trust the white given their current disadvantage.

(puff puff)

That would mean, no more movement.

It would also mean allowing the knights to wander around and do their work.

It would mean that votes would be mainly no lynch unless scans were positive

But that would mean believing in the scans blindly
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:09 AM   #1043
st.cronin
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I'm thinking the same thing. What are your opinions on my plan of having the wolf-seeing pieces reveal, the bodyguard pieces guard them (switching off one to the other each night) and getting (hopefully) a lot of scans in and a ton of information out? You're a vet player, so I'm curious if this is a good play or bad play. I know that normally reveals like this are bad but given the ability of the bodyguards to switch off, we can guarantee protection until the wolves hit the bodyguards.

If the black knights have found a wolf, I think they need to come forward. Especially if the wolf is Black - my best guess is there is only one Black wolf left, so after we vote him off, the Black team should be free from votes.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:10 AM   #1044
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To the black knights alive, if one of you is going to reveal, reveal as white. Afterall, there's only one white knight alive. Wouldn't want the white guys to lynch you mob-style.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:11 AM   #1045
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And, to the black knights if you've found a black wolf, I suggest you keep that information to yourselves for now. We want to help the Wolves trim down the white side before we go after them.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:13 AM   #1046
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(puff puff)

But that would mean believing in the scans blindly

Yeah, I've thought about this. If we keep getting villager scans, we don't get anywhere but it also starts to be suspicious. However, if a seer says so-and-so is a wolf, we lynch, and they aren't, we definitely would know the next place to go.

At this point, I figure our seers probably at least have information on one player (I'll be conservative and say that maybe one of their scans is already gone) but that can give us six players to trust, right off: the two bodyguards (we would be going on faith here), the two seers, and the people that they have info on. It would significantly cut down the chances of a bad lynch.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:15 AM   #1047
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And, to the black knights if you've found a black wolf, I suggest you keep that information to yourselves for now. We want to help the Wolves trim down the white side before we go after them.

Nevermind on my plan, doesn't look like there will be cooperation between the two teams. I guess I will continue to vote to lynch black pieces then until I hit a wolf because I at least eliminate black pieces and don't accidentally take out my own team.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:16 AM   #1048
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Neon, which sounds better?

A- We continue on our current path, trying to play chess while we wildly vote each other off and wolves pick us off

or

B- We stop the chess for now, mutually attack the wolves through scans, vote them off, and then return to play a straight up game of chess with no wolf obstacles

It's your call, I guess, but A seems to make a crap-load more sense to me.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:17 AM   #1049
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Nevermind on my plan, doesn't look like there will be cooperation between the two teams. I guess I will continue to vote to lynch black pieces then until I hit a wolf because I at least eliminate black pieces and don't accidentally take out my own team.

From the moment that most of the the white team members lynched the black queen, I thought it was already a given.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:17 AM   #1050
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Neon, which sounds better?

A- We continue on our current path, trying to play chess while we wildly vote each other off and wolves pick us off

or

B- We stop the chess for now, mutually attack the wolves through scans, vote them off, and then return to play a straight up game of chess with no wolf obstacles

It's your call, I guess, but B seems to make a crap-load more sense to me.

Yeah, I'm an idiot today.
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