Werewolf LVI: Beneath the Iron Cross - GAME OVER, VILLAGERS WIN!

[oliegirl]

Alright guys...I just put in my night action...hopefully I'll survive to see the results of the scan. We are leaving in 20 - 30 minutes, so I'll be able to post results and post a vote but then I will likely be gone until late tonight, not sure if where we are staying has internet or not...I will find a way to check in tomorrow though so I can get a vote in.

[Neon_Chaos]

Night 4:

You wake up, fearing the worst. As soon as you congregate around the central hall, you notice that someone is missing. Path12 is nowhere to be found. You rush into his room and find him dead. It seems that he was strangled to death. Another one is dead. You take him to the degentization chamber. Neon Chaos goes through his scanning capability.

DEGENETIZATION COMPLETE.
ANALYZING PARTICLES.
GENETICS CONFIRMED.
ANALYSIS COMPLETE.

SPECIMEN ANALYSIS: CODENAME - SEER

CHAMBER RECHARGING.
EST. RECHARGE TIME: 9 HOURS.

HAVE A NICE DAY.

A longer day now lies ahead.

Day 5 has begun: Votes are due at 9:00 PM CST

[jeheinz72]

Good god.

[ArlingtonColt]

Didn't see that one coming...

[oliegirl]

Crap. A hint or two might have been nice Path...or a reveal even...sheesh.

Still waiting on my PM from Neon...

[Antmeister]

Huh? Seer? He must have been a Fool because he didn't tip us off on who was a wolf? Or at least that is what I am hoping and he didn't just happened to have a string of bad luck picking out people to scan. Dammit!

[oliegirl]

Scanned Chief Rum last night, he came back Villager, which of course means he could be a wolf. I'm voting now, if I can get back on before deadline I am willing to change it based on the day's events...

[oliegirl]

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[jeheinz72]

3. saldana
5. ArlingtonColt
8. jeheinz72
9. oliegirl
11. Antmeister
12. Chief Rum
14. RealDeal
15. ntndeacon
16. Barkeep49

Ok, here are the "facts" I have

- Olie is the inquisitive
- AC is the Magistrate
- Barkeep is the Holy Mark
- ntndeacon is the Witness

That leaves:

saldana, jeheinz72, Antmeister, ChiefRum, RealDeal to contain

- The Wolf (I'm guessing 1 left)
- The Unholy Mark
- Possibly the cultist

I know I'm not the Wolf or the Cultist (no idea if I'm the UHM of course).

I'll have to re-read, but it seems to me we should look back and see which of these main 4 have done a lot of agreeing with each other. That might point us to the Cultist/Wolf combo.

[RealDeal]

Unbelievable. Is NC tipping the wolves off? So far, seer/fool, no kill (conversion?), bodyguard, seer/fool.

[ArlingtonColt]

Stroking your own wolfie ego there?

[path12]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

Was out tonight, but I see we actually went ahead with the ever-so-brilliant plan to lynch Render because Hoops said he was a wolf. And how did that turn out for us?

*tips hat to Hoops*

I enjoy having you in the games. Your bitterness is refreshing.

[path12]

Oops. Didn't realize I was dead. Crap. Go team!

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I know I'm not the Wolf or the Cultist (no idea if I'm the UHM of course).

You know, if you think about it, the Unholy Mark may have converted to a wolf. There was one night where no one died. It seems likely that the unholy mark was already attacked, because it wouldn't make sense that the wolves wouldn't continue to attack considering the witness role was already used.

[ntndeacon]

Vote RealDeal

[ntndeacon]

the main reason is a a general sense of unease I have about him. However that path vote on him looms bigger now. I wonder if that vote is what got him killed. His stepping out of the normal thought processes going on at the time.

[ArlingtonColt]

Im on the fence about RealDeal and jeheinz72... I'm going to see where the tide shifts, but right now I'm leaning towards RD

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

You know, if you think about it, the Unholy Mark may have converted to a wolf. There was one night where no one died. It seems likely that the unholy mark was already attacked, because it wouldn't make sense that the wolves wouldn't continue to attack considering the witness role was already used.

It could be either way. One of (I believe) 2 things happened

1. They attacked the UHM, and they converted

2. They attacked BK, the HM, and he can't be killed by them.

My lean is towards #2, since I'd think hoops would want to take out BK for kicks given what I've read here about their relationship.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonColt

Im on the fence about RealDeal and jeheinz72... I'm going to see where the tide shifts, but right now I'm leaning towards RD

Feel free to ask me anything you deem necessary. If you're leaning between me and RD, you should vote RD.

[RealDeal]

Here's my feeling on the remaining players at this point:

3. saldana - don't have much of a read, although whenever I think of saldana, I think of the Warhammer 40K game, and that makes me angry.
5. ArlingtonColt - confirmed good guy, used duke power.
8. jeheinz72 - no evidence, but my gut feeling is villager

9. oliegirl -
16. Barkeep49

I link these two because you either have to trust both or neither. Olie says she's the investigator and barkeep has a role. Potentially, Olie could have made up her scans of AC and nt, since they already revealed. But BK we trust only based on Olie's assurance.

I tend to trust olie, and I think a fake reveal that early would be extremely difficult to pull off because you risk that there is actually a real investigator in the game who calls bullshit on you.

But BK's play yesterday just really gets me. A WW vet who moderates WW games, and he led the charge on Render for reasons that just made no objective sense: just doesn't sit right with me. And his rationale for it, the "distraction" and the "chance for the fool/seer to scan", neither of those arguments really made sense if you thought about them. Both arguments could have been made about anyone, so I know BK's too smart for that. It just all seemed really contrived.

The problem is if you think BK is a wolf, you have to think olie is a wolf, and I just don't think olie's a wolf. The fake reveal is just so risky and difficult. So right now, I'll assume that BK just got chumped by Hoops, but I am a tad suspicious.

11. Antmeister
12. Chief Rum

I link these two, also. CR, who hasn't posted much, shows up at the last second, criticizes the people who voted for Render, and then voted for Render anyway. To be fair, he stated that he believed both candidates were villagers, but it was still a little fishy to me. Olie has voted for Chief Rum already.

So in my book, if you think Chief Rum may be a wolf, then it is possible he voted in a way to save Ant last night, and there could be a wolf link there.

14. RealDeal- With the seer definitely dead now, a roleless villager like me is running on borrowed time. All I have in my defense is my posts and my votes. People will make their own determination about me.

15. ntndeacon- confirmed good guy, used wtiness power and bagged Hoops.


At this point, I'd bet my money on Ant/Chief Rum and will probably vote for one of them barring some new info.

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonColt

Im on the fence about RealDeal and jeheinz72... I'm going to see where the tide shifts, but right now I'm leaning towards RD

I am in the believe that we have about 2 wolves (there has to be a possibility that the Unholy Mark was found) and I am shifting between RealDeal and Chief Rum. saldana would be in the next tier.

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

At this point, I'd bet my money on Ant/Chief Rum and will probably vote for one of them barring some new info.

Huh? So immediately after he saves me, I immediately question Chief Rum and I have been on Chief Rum for not showing up. Check out previous posts. Why would I do that if I was somehow linked and why would I immediately try to implicate afterwards. The last minute vote seemed very wolfish to me and I didn't quite understand why he was able to ascertain that we were both innocent when he only checked in 15 minutes before and hadn't been seen for a while. How was he able to come up with this conclusion if he had been gone.

At this point, I have no trouble voting you or Chief Rum out.

[RealDeal]

Ant, for all I know last night was just a villager v. villager vote. But the info I have right now is that Render was a villager, and CR swooped in at the last second and voted for Render. It was a suspicious way to vote, coming in at the last second, criticizing the Render vote and then voting for Render anyway. If he is a wolf, then it makes sense to link you to him because his strange vote saved you. My point is, if we lynch CR and he's a wolf, then it would make sense to be suspicious of you.

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

Ant, for all I know last night was just a villager v. villager vote. But the info I have right now is that Render was a villager, and CR swooped in at the last second and voted for Render. It was a suspicious way to vote, coming in at the last second, criticizing the Render vote and then voting for Render anyway. If he is a wolf, then it makes sense to link you to him because his strange vote saved you. My point is, if we lynch CR and he's a wolf, then it would make sense to be suspicious of you.

Actually, to prove that I am just a villager and for anyone else that is a villager, I propose we do this. We know for sure that Arlington Colt out of all people is not a wolf. Whoever he chooses, we all choose the same person in unison.

It would pretty much be difficult for a wolf to change votes if it implicates one of their own. So if AC decides at the last minute to choose someone different than the two people he is suspicious of, we all have to change to that vote for that person as well.

So what do you say? No one should be against it if they are villagers.

[Antmeister]

And I say we do this to the end regardless of who ends up dead (including myself) because I am 100% certain out of anyone else that he is not a wolf. So it makes sense if we stand together till the very end.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

Actually, to prove that I am just a villager and for anyone else that is a villager, I propose we do this. We know for sure that Arlington Colt out of all people is not a wolf. Whoever he chooses, we all choose the same person in unison.

It would pretty much be difficult for a wolf to change votes if it implicates one of their own. So if AC decides at the last minute to choose someone different than the two people he is suspicious of, we all have to change to that vote for that person as well.

So what do you say? No one should be against it if they are villagers.

Well my problems with that plan are thus

1) I'm one of the two he listed! Agh!

2) You're not (making me suspicious)

3) I play to help make decisions, not blindly follow just to prove my innocence

Though RealDeal is one of the people I'm considering, so if people vote for him, it'd be pretty easy to entice me to go along.

[Antmeister]

So AC, I say you lead the charge. I have full faith in any decision. Your first hunch got us a wolf before and I believe it will happen again.

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well my problems with that plan are thus

1) I'm one of the two he listed! Agh!

2) You're not (making me suspicious)

3) I play to help make decisions, not blindly follow just to prove my innocence

Though RealDeal is one of the people I'm considering, so if people vote for him, it'd be pretty easy to entice me to go along.

Well like I said, he can change his vote at any time. If he decides that I am suspicious, I will vote for myself as well. I just want to get the wolves. Why would you be against this if you know for sure that AC is not a wolf? Does it make sense to follow anyone else that you don't trust? We have already been duped by a wolf, so why not follow the non-wolf.

[RealDeal]

Well, I agree that AC is a villager and is trustworthy in that sense. His opinion is meaningful to me because I know he has no ulterior motives. But if I were to follow his vote, I'd like to have a good understanding of his reasoning. It was, after all, just last night that he voted for Render, so, while I trust his good intentions, I am ambivalent about his judgment.

[Antmeister]

Besides, he just made the most amazing move in this game, so why wouldn't we at least be in unison on decisions.

[ArlingtonColt]

Yeah, but then we also find out nothing about the votes. I've been thinking about CR.... isn't he well respected in this game? Wouldn't it make sense for the wolves to eat him so he can't throw out theories? I realize he hasn't brought much , but it is suspicious.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

Well like I said, he can change his vote at any time. If he decides that I am suspicious, I will vote for myself as well. I just want to get the wolves. Why would you be against this if you know for sure that AC is not a wolf? Does it make sense to follow anyone else that you don't trust? We have already been duped by a wolf, so why not follow the non-wolf.

While I get your theory's premise, I disagree with it in principal. It takes away the point of playing WW for me. The point to me, is for me to collaborate with other players in an effort to catch wolves. Not to just blindly follow what one person says because he made a good play previously in the game.

Don't get me wrong, AC's duke play was fantastic, and I'd surely take whatever he says into consideration, but let's not forget he just voted for RendeR too, so it's not like he knows everything.

If two heads are better than one, how much better is nine heads?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

Well, I agree that AC is a villager and is trustworthy in that sense. His opinion is meaningful to me because I know he has no ulterior motives. But if I were to follow his vote, I'd like to have a good understanding of his reasoning. It was, after all, just last night that he voted for Render, so, while I trust his good intentions, I am ambivalent about his judgment.

Ditto this, since you beat me to the punch by like seconds.

[Antmeister]

You do realize at this point in the game, it doesn't make sense to have scattered votes. And while you guys sit there and believe that Render was a bad vote, you guys just as well voted for me. Bad judgement as well. And why are you ignoring the fact that I said if I am voted for (which could very well happen), I will vote for myself as well.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

You do realize at this point in the game, it doesn't make sense to have scattered votes. And while you guys sit there and believe that Render was a bad vote, you guys just as well voted for me. Bad judgement as well. And why are you ignoring the fact that I said if I am voted for (which could very well happen), I will vote for myself as well.

Who said anything about scattering the votes? I'm willing to come to an agreement in unison, but that doesn't mean I'm going to designate one person to do all of the thinking.

Frankly, this tangent by you just screams diversionary tactic to me by someone who nearly got lynched last vote.

[Antmeister]

You guys are ridiculous. You guys based your vote on what oliegirl said. Isn't that correct? And as she said is that I came up as a villager. You had no arguements saying what made me a wolf. Just based it off that. So what is the difference here?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

You guys are ridiculous. You guys based your vote on what oliegirl said. Isn't that correct? And as she said is that I came up as a villager. You had no arguements saying what made me a wolf. Just based it off that. So what is the difference here?

Unless I'm mistaken, she can only see roled villagers. So a return-scan of Vanilla Villager to her could mean that or wolf.

Am I mis-understanding this? I'm pretty sure it's been posted multiple times in this thread as such.

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Unless I'm mistaken, she can only see roled villagers. So a return-scan of Vanilla Villager to her could mean that or wolf.

Am I mis-understanding this? I'm pretty sure it's been posted multiple times in this thread as such.

Huh...interesting, because you think we are down to one wolf and yet you are arguing about going with this system. So you are either a wolf or you are not looking at the big picture.

If we are down to 1 wolf, then it is 8:1 at this point. 4 of us have already been identified with roles. However the rest probably won't. So we will all scan as a villager as well as the wolf. Considering that you believe we have 1 wolf left, you are just blindly going to follow that?

Now let's say the odds are 5:4 or 6:3. If that is the case, I can see why a wolf wouldn't want to go in unison because they can win tonight or the next night.

[Antmeister]

Seriously, oliegirl, AC, ntndeacon and Barkeep, you have to join together in votes at this point. Since we don't know what the number are for the wolves, they can thin us out. And seriously, we should trust AC if he changes votes at any point.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

Huh...interesting, because you think we are down to one wolf and yet you are arguing about going with this system. So you are either a wolf or you are not looking at the big picture.

If we are down to 1 wolf, then it is 8:1 at this point. 4 of us have already been identified with roles. However the rest probably won't. So we will all scan as a villager as well as the wolf. Considering that you believe we have 1 wolf left, you are just blindly going to follow that?

Now let's say the odds are 5:4 or 6:3. If that is the case, I can see why a wolf wouldn't want to go in unison because they can win tonight or the next night.

I don't think I'm following your logic here. I was just clarifying Olie's role in the post you quoted. Yes, I realize that of the 5 people we don't know the roles of that all 5 will come back Villager. I never made any bones about Olie's scans, you brought that in, I was just clarifying.

As far as the ratios, I don't see how that has anything to do with me wanting or not wanting to follow in your plan. My goal is to vote out the wolf, plain and simple. It'd be that at 8:1 or 5:4 or 6:3 or 7:2.

Heck, even AC himself brought up a very valid point as to why this blind-unison would be a bad idea, in that we'd gain not vote-record knowledge. If AC misses, then what do we do? Follow him again, giving the wolf another chance to find the UHM (if he hasn't already)? Do you just not care about that?

[Barkeep49]

Ok. So I think the wolves made a serious mis-step last night, by killing outside the COT. This is what we want. So the players outside the COT are:

Ant
CR
Jeh
Real

I think we have 1 or 2 wolves left. So that gives us an either 1 in 4 or 50/50 shot of catching a wolf. I like our chances. And either way, we're up a bunch of villagers so we have a little wiggle room still. I still think there's a wolf in the Jeh/Real pairing. I could see CR being a wolf, but only if there are two left. That said I think JEH has just done more to help the villager cause in terms of lists and such. I'm willing to give him a helpful player pass. I think hoops would be more likely to choose JEH than Real, but I'm not ready to go down that road again. So I'll be voting for Real.

[Barkeep49]

Realdeal

[Barkeep49]

Oh and I will say that it is possible that Ant is a wolf. In that case CR, fellow wolf, comes on at the last moment and despite saying that we have to ignore hoops, finds a way to cast the deciding vote in favor of saving the wolf.

[jeheinz72]

BK, sound reasons. Question though, shouldn't saldana be outside the CoT?

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Oh and I will say that it is possible that Ant is a wolf. In that case CR, fellow wolf, comes on at the last moment and despite saying that we have to ignore hoops, finds a way to cast the deciding vote in favor of saving the wolf.

Look if you believe that, vote for Cheif Rum. I have no problem voting for him since oliegirl already voted for him. AC is suspicious of him and I will vote for him as well. If we all vote for RealDeal. I will go in that direction as well.

[ArlingtonColt]

Tough decision tonight... knowing hoops line of thinking (outlined in his very post.. I'm going with RD....

I think the wolves are hitting outside the CoT to try and nab the Unholy mark.

[ArlingtonColt]

Vote Real Deal

[jeheinz72]

Vote RealDeal

[jeheinz72]

I'm going RealDeal tonight. I'm not all that confident in it, but I just went back and noticed Path voted RealDeal in an apparent throwaway vote before switching to RendeR.

My thinking is he thought he was the seer (he would've had time to confirm and even post he was the fool if he wanted to) but also realized he'd never have swung enough votes yesterday to RealDeal, so he dropped a nugget for us.

[RealDeal]

Since I am shaping up to be one of the main targets, I'll go on and vote now to help protect myself.

It's funny, people voting for me actually bothers me a lot less than people voting for Render last night. At least I make sense. At this point, we got a finite group of uncleared people, and now just have to file through them. I know if you vote for me, you won't get a wolf tonight, but it doesn't do any good to tell you that, of course. People will make their own conclusions. The only thing less convincing than a person telling you they are not a wolf is when the alpha wolf tells you someone is or isn't a wolf...oops, I forgot that apparently the alpha wolf is very convincing.

Anyway, I don't have a role to reveal, and I don't have anyone to vouch for me via a scan. My best defense, imo, is my votes and actions so far. I think if you look at everything from an objective basis, both Chief Rum and Antmeister are more likely to be wolves. They are top on my list. Olie has already voted for Chief Rum, so that's where I will vote.