2023 NFL Regular Season Thread

[flere-imsaho]

The Falcons could have signed Lamar Jackson in the offseason. Declining to pursue that deal in favor of sticking with Ridder tells me all I need to know about that organization.

[GrantDawg]

The Falcons were never signing Lamar Jackson. That was always going to be impossible. He was going back to the Ravens the whole time, and the Falcons weren't willing to negotiate his contract for them.

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[Solecismic]

When we evaluate quarterbacks, we have to ask what it is we're evaluating.

Herbert made a throw last night - deep cross-field out route. Threw it on a dime, with pace. Undefendable. A Thing of Beauty. If Bagent had tried that throw, a safety could have caught up to it for a pick six. Any number of bad outcomes.

Bagent is playing because he seems to have some awareness that there are a lot of throws he can't make. That's the difference between a guy who has a chance of being a backup in this league and Malik Willis.

It's one of the routes your coach says "don't even think about it" or "yeah, I like this" when creating a game plan.

But when we evaluate Ridder, well, he can make most of those throws. Yet he isn't making them. He plays it safe. Perhaps that's Arthur Smith, perhaps his own worries. It's too early in his career to call him a butterfingers, so his low interception rate speaks to him being cautious, low-turnover in the end.

He's just not moving the chains well enough - the issue with so many quarterbacks in the NFL. Yet there he is making games competitive in the fourth quarter. I don't want to dismiss him as a Wentz-type yet. I'd definitely give him the rest of this year - going to Heinicke has no upside at all. I like Heinicke. He's a good career backup who can run your plan if you need it run. But he's not a good starter.

Ridder does come from an extremely poor draft class. If one single long-term starter comes from it aside from the suddenly-human Brock Purdy, though, it's going to be Ridder. Pickett's not the answer in Pittsburgh, not even close.

What are we evaluating, then? No one passes every test. Someone was saying Mahomes is off this year. If so, who is on, then? You can always point at a bad throw or a costly checkdown. You need a lot of throws to get a complete picture of a quarterback.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke and the Falcons new QB controversy - The Falcoholic

This hits most of the points that I feel like matter to the fan base.

-- 20 points in a half with the backup when they failed to score 20 in a whole game 4 of the previous 5 weeks.

-- Regardless of what road they choose, the Falcons are in a spot where their hand-picked starter is struggling to get through games without very costly plays, and that same player just spent the second half of a game on the bench while his backup did very well.

-- The controversy over who should be playing quarterback will outlast the (week 9) decision, either way.

Most observers agree that they'll go back to Ridder to start, hell even I think that's what will happen. If it does, and goes about the same as the first half of the season, I suspect Smith won't make it all the way through next season as the HC.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

When we evaluate quarterbacks, we have to ask what it is we're evaluating.

Herbert made a throw last night - deep cross-field out route. Threw it on a dime, with pace. Undefendable. A Thing of Beauty. If Bagent had tried that throw, a safety could have caught up to it for a pick six. Any number of bad outcomes.

Bagent is playing because he seems to have some awareness that there are a lot of throws he can't make. That's the difference between a guy who has a chance of being a backup in this league and Malik Willis.

It's one of the routes your coach says "don't even think about it" or "yeah, I like this" when creating a game plan.

But when we evaluate Ridder, well, he can make most of those throws. Yet he isn't making them. He plays it safe. Perhaps that's Arthur Smith, perhaps his own worries. It's too early in his career to call him a butterfingers, so his low interception rate speaks to him being cautious, low-turnover in the end.

He's just not moving the chains well enough - the issue with so many quarterbacks in the NFL. Yet there he is making games competitive in the fourth quarter. I don't want to dismiss him as a Wentz-type yet. I'd definitely give him the rest of this year - going to Heinicke has no upside at all. I like Heinicke. He's a good career backup who can run your plan if you need it run. But he's not a good starter.

Ridder does come from an extremely poor draft class. If one single long-term starter comes from it aside from the suddenly-human Brock Purdy, though, it's going to be Ridder. Pickett's not the answer in Pittsburgh, not even close.

What are we evaluating, then? No one passes every test. Someone was saying Mahomes is off this year. If so, who is on, then? You can always point at a bad throw or a costly checkdown. You need a lot of throws to get a complete picture of a quarterback.

He is slow at processing the field. He holds the ball too long. He does not feel the rush. He cannot keep the ball in his hands. How does that evaluate?

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

He is slow at processing the field. He holds the ball too long. He does not feel the rush. He cannot keep the ball in his hands. How does that evaluate?

Those are binary conclusions. We all want quarterbacks who pass a certain number of tests unequivocally. His numbers are adding up to a pretty much average quarterback in the NFL this season. I think because he's playing it safe even though he has the arm to do more.

Because he seems to be having success when he opens it up a bit at the end of games, I don't see the case for going to a backup right now. That's all.

If you're asking me if he's ever going to be Pro-Bowl caliber, I'm going to say no, he isn't.

[GrantDawg]

Just want to add, this is not a throw-away season for the Falcons. They have an easy as cake schedule going forward and are playing in the weakest conference in football. They are playing to win football games. They should play the quarterback that gives them the best chance at winning. Ridder has 12 turnovers in 8 games. That is not a recipe for winning.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

They are playing to win football games.

Well, hold on now.

They should be playing to win games.

Whether that's the case remains to be seen.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Well, hold on now.

They should be playing to win games.

Whether that's the case remains to be seen.

Yes. Correct. They should be. I think Smith is coaching to try to prove how smart he is rather than winning.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Yes. Correct. They should be. I think Smith is coaching to try to prove how smart he is rather than winning.

He seems to be about as personable as Jim Donnan.

[Edward64]

How Bijan doing nowadays?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

How Bijan doing nowadays?

The offense as a whole has slowed down considerably and he is no exception. After looking hot early, he hasn't had much success recently. He had two passes yesterday that hit him in the hands but he wasn't ready for them. He wasn't on time with his route. Of course he missed pretty much all of last weeks game because of a head-ache.

[thesloppy]

Another big game for the Lions tonight. Win against the rudderless Raiders and they stay in the top tier of the NFC, lose and they're back in the wash. As always the Lions' own injuries are adding up and besides the lingering issues at RB the OL is dinged up currently and Amon Ra was apparently sick all weekend...having said all of that, the Raiders have struggled even with Garoppolo, and the Lions injuries aren't enough of an excuse to lose to this team at home.

[Ksyrup]

Cardinals are either starting Murray or Clayton Tune this week.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

With Cousins probably done for the year, do the Vikings consider trading for Murray?

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How about Jameis? That's the rumor.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Cardinals are either starting Murray or Clayton Tune this week.

I really don't think Murray will be ready this week, give him another week so he can play in better weather at home. I'd like to see if Tune can play with the big boys, and we are 1-7 so send Dobbs as the backup.

[thesloppy]

Jamo cannot catch

[thesloppy]

Lions seem desperate to give this game away, can the Raiders take it?

[thesloppy]

Finally. Close out a drive.

[Ksyrup]

That was a brutal pick 6. Holy crap.

[thesloppy]

[thesloppy]

Gibbs finally getting a showcase game

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Lions seem desperate to give this game away, can the Raiders take it?

The Raiders have decided they do not want this game.

[thesloppy]

Come onnnn this is killing me. They refuse to close this game out

[thesloppy]

Phew. That was never as close as it felt, but always closer than it should have been.

[Danny]

Some of the worst QB play i have ever seen in my life.

Please fire Mcdaniels and start Aidan Oconnell the rest of the season to see what you have.

[stevew]

Bears trading a 2nd rounder for a pending free agent edge rusher is so bears.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Montez Sweat is still youngish and, assuming the Bears can extend him, he's likely going to be better than whoever they ended up drafting with that pick.

That's likely going to be a high second round pick, which is great for the Commanders, but maybe Chicago felt like to it could trade a high pick for an established player given all the draft capital they have from the Bryce Young deal.

[albionmoonlight]

The downside to a guy like Sweat compared to a draft pick is salary. But the Bears have cap space to burn.

Seems like a win/win assuming they can extend him.

[albionmoonlight]

Post by @jaydpauley

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[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The downside to a guy like Sweat compared to a draft pick is salary. But the Bears have cap space to burn.

Seems like a win/win assuming they can extend him.

Pass rush is a huge need. They're getting none right now and it likely makes the entire defense look worse than it actually is.

Sweat is the safer play and a better around player compared to Young. I like the deal. Don't love it, but they need multiple pass rushers and this at least gets them one.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Multiple talking head types say Josh Dobbs to MIN

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The downside to a guy like Sweat compared to a draft pick is salary. But the Bears have cap space to burn.

Seems like a win/win assuming they can extend him.

I agree. And if you have to spend money, investing it into the d-line and pass rush isn't a bad way to go.

[Ksyrup]

As someone within striking distance of a decent payout halfway through the season in team wins/salary cap game through work, I applaud the Vikings' effort. I need them to squeeze a few more wins out of this season.

[RainMaker]

Unless the Bears have a nice extension lined up with Sweat, I have no clue what they're doing.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Multiple talking head types say Josh Dobbs to MIN

Yep for Dobbs and a 7th rounder and the Cards get a sixth rounder.


Okay with this thought it would have been way to early to give up on Murray. I saw enough from Dobbs to see he's a good backup type, and maybe he can thrive a little with better receivers and offensive line(?)


still don't want to see Murray playing in Cleveland though-looks like its going to be cold, windy, and who knows snow?

[Ksyrup]

Commanders with the fire sale - Chase Young to 49ers.

[thesloppy]

"The former No. 2 overall pick will reportedly go to San Francisco in exchange for a 2024 third-round pick."

Really?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Commanders with the fire sale - Chase Young to 49ers.

wow rich get richer

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

"The former No. 2 overall pick will reportedly go to San Francisco in exchange for a 2024 third-round pick."

Really?

I would have been fine with the Lions making that deal.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

I would have been fine with the Lions making that deal.

how about WR Donovan Peoples-Jones from Cleveland for a sixth rounder?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

how about WR Donovan Peoples-Jones from Cleveland for a sixth rounder?

I'll take it! A homecoming for the Detroit native and former UofM standout!

[Thomkal]

Trades so far today/yesterday:


https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/s...33583851376650

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

I'll take it! A homecoming for the Detroit native and former UofM standout!

Let's hope this fairs better than Brad Holmes' prior wide receiver trades. Neither Denzel Mims (never even played a pre-season game) nor Trinity Benson (he did nothing) worked out. At all.

[Thomkal]

Bills trade a 3rd rounder to the Packers for a 5th rounder and CB Rasul Douglas

[miami_fan]

Does anybody remember what the data points Pete Carroll used to explain why Mark Sanchez should not go pro? I remember Carroll referenced a study that indicated a 62 percent failure rate for quarterbacks who declare themselves eligible for the NFL draft as underclassmen. There was another data point that had to do with the number of games started or number of passes attempted or some data point that basically said the more game time the QB had the better.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Does anybody remember what the data points Pete Carroll used to explain why Mark Sanchez should not go pro? I remember Carroll referenced a study that indicated a 62 percent failure rate for quarterbacks who declare themselves eligible for the NFL draft as underclassmen. There was another data point that had to do with the number of games started or number of passes attempted or some data point that basically said the more game time the QB had the better.

It was games started and I want to say the number was 30. It was a study Football Outsiders (RIP) referenced quite a bit in their early days.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Closest I could find to what Carroll talked about at the time were quotes and comments, none with numbers that were specific

This article digs into the number -- games started, passes attempted, etc -- for various QBs current and past, and how the 3-years-after-HS guys are still the exception it might be getting at least slightly better.

Changing how we think about 3-and-out quarterbacks - On3

[RainMaker]

That's an interesting article. Recently one of the Chicago sports radio stations had a guy who used to work as a top scout in the Bears organization. He was very open about what they look for in QBs.

One thing that stood out was that their research showed that the QBs who get thrown into the fire don't typically succeed long term. They saw better success from QBs who got to sit for a year. It was more an issue of confidence. Once that gets crushed (can't trust your line, can't trust your receivers, etc), it was tough to get them on the right track.

Anyway, I think the only number Sanchez cared about was in the contract. Maybe he increased his chances of succeeding a bit by stating, but that's a lot of guaranteed money for being a high pick. You hate to be one of those guys who drops by staying another year (I think Ryan Mallett or someone else went through that).

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Unless the Bears have a nice extension lined up with Sweat, I have no clue what they're doing.

Oh, that's easy. The Bears have no idea what they're doing.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

That's an interesting article. Recently one of the Chicago sports radio stations had a guy who used to work as a top scout in the Bears organization. He was very open about what they look for in QBs.

A "top scout in the Bears organization" has things to say about QBs. Let's think about that for a moment.