Werewolf LI Major League (GAME OVER!!! INDIANS--GOOD GUYS--WIN!!!)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

hoops: I think Gonzo's story checks out all around though. I agree the timeline is conducive to the argument you're giving, but Gonzo's explanation is reasonable.

Help me understand which of the following is reasonable:
- he scanned me for supporting DT's Internet story after the deadline to submit that scan result?
- he got the result saying I was a wolf, but voted first for another player?
- I decided to get cute as a wolf by not only winning games, but also by burying another wolf? Barkeep, you were the 2nd vote on Pass - guess who was first?

For people who have played with me as a wolf before, I'm absolutely shocked that you think I would sabotage my own team to generate trust. As a wolf, I know I'm a likely scan candidate early in games. I'll go out of my way to draw the attention to me, not to set one of them up to die.

Look at the last 30 minutes of yesterday with Pass, if you don't think it is compelling enough that I cast the blame on him initially and left the vote there for the duration. I had every opportunity to help him out prior to him going with the fake reveal.

The idea that I'm playing the game as a wolf Scout is also pretty preposterous when Chief replied directly to the question about the good guy roles. No one has come forward to claim that role - because I am the Scout. I know it isn't as sexy as being the seer and giving you a wolf, but the information I'm providing is accurate. Which I would really hope counted for something.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Do we take this to mean that it's possible that a wolf has one of the roles? This could be the balancing mechanism for only 2 wolves, as the source material would only suggest two bad guys.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm not going to spell anything outright, but this is a standard WW game underneath the hood.

Here is the material on the use of good guy roles - asked initially by Barkeep last night and answered by Chief Rum.

If you accept that the good guy roles are equally likely to have started with villagers - which I think you have to based on the response here - then it should be equally damning that no one has come forward to refute either the Seer claim or the Scout claim.

However, since there is no one coming forward to refute the seer claim, despite the fact that there was no kill last night, I'm dead today on a fake seer reveal.

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

- he scanned me for supporting DT's Internet story after the deadline to submit that scan result?

I scanned you beacuse I thought you were good and was wanting to build a COT. Nothing to do with DT's internet story.

[Barkeep49]

Hoops: Why isn't it just as likely that you were converted last night as Gonzo? In that way you play against Pass was correct for the team you were on at the time, but then last night, prior to your scan, you were converted?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Help me understand which of the following is reasonable:
- he scanned me for supporting DT's Internet story after the deadline to submit that scan result?
- he got the result saying I was a wolf, but voted first for another player?
- I decided to get cute as a wolf by not only winning games, but also by burying another wolf? Barkeep, you were the 2nd vote on Pass - guess who was first?

For people who have played with me as a wolf before, I'm absolutely shocked that you think I would sabotage my own team to generate trust. As a wolf, I know I'm a likely scan candidate early in games. I'll go out of my way to draw the attention to me, not to set one of them up to die.

Look at the last 30 minutes of yesterday with Pass, if you don't think it is compelling enough that I cast the blame on him initially and left the vote there for the duration. I had every opportunity to help him out prior to him going with the fake reveal.

The idea that I'm playing the game as a wolf Scout is also pretty preposterous when Chief replied directly to the question about the good guy roles. No one has come forward to claim that role - because I am the Scout. I know it isn't as sexy as being the seer and giving you a wolf, but the information I'm providing is accurate. Which I would really hope counted for something.

Well as I stated in my last post, perhaps you're the on who was converted, not Gonzo. And I think it's entirely possible that a seer wouldn't come right out and finger a wolf.

I admit you have me doubting things, but even with that doubt I feel like you're the smarter play, for reasons discussed earlier in the day.

[hoopsguy]

Possible Questions/Answers to today's events.

Question #1: Why wouldn't hoops, if he was evil, counter-claim seer?
Incorrect Answer: Because he isn't a smart enough player to recognize optimal strategy.
Correct Answer: I would counter-claim seer in this position, and get into a contest of PM details with Gonzo, looking to craft an emotional response that is more in line with people's expectations than the factual information given by the seer. But since I'm not a wolf, I'm sticking to the information I have rather than polluting you with fiction.

Question #2: Why would Hoops sacrifice one of his wolf teammates yesterday when he was in no immediate danger at the outset of the day?
Incorrect Answer: Because Hoops decided to get "too cute" in building trust and it blew up in his face.
Correct Answer: Hoops would look out for his teammates early in the game - there is a certain amount of attention that comes with being the guy who has 2x as many posts as anyone else in the game. That works to the benefit of the other wolves and the detriment of Hoops (who is talking like Jack Partman in this post).

Question #3: Why would the wolves have targetted Gonzo last night to convert? How in the world would they know he is the seer given his lack of posts?
Incorrect Answer: The wolves would not have done this. Hoops is lying and making arguments to try and support his lie.
Correct Answer: Gonzo showed his hand, along with JE, by quickly voting for Pass after the fake seer reveal last night. The wolves responded with their best guess for the seer and hit the 50% call.

Question #4: Why would Hoops support DT all game long if they were fellow wolves?
Incorrect Answer: Because that is what wolves do, they support each other.
Correct Answer: I don't know if DT is a wolf or not, but I'm not willing to accept that his actions match those of a calculating wolf. I think they are much more in line with a badly misguided villager. If I'm wrong on this, then DT has done a better job of mixing up his play than I expected.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Hoops: Why isn't it just as likely that you were converted last night as Gonzo? In that way you play against Pass was correct for the team you were on at the time, but then last night, prior to your scan, you were converted?

Thank you for finally asking the question that I've been waiting for someone to ask!

Chief Rum, can you confirm for me, one way or the other, what the order of actions would have been last night if the seer went to scan someone who was also targetted for conversion?

If he is willing to answer that question, then I think it would potentially go a long ways towards clearing me. Unless, of course, the argument will then switch to "well, Hoops must have started as a wolf".

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, with the vote at 6-2 I'll take having someone who is seems to be considering that I might be telling the truth here.

The last time I found myself up against it like this, in terms of the vote, was back in Alan's game. That time, I had only myself to blame because of misreading Lathum's post. I fought very hard to stay alive that game because I knew that we were goner's if I was mis-lynched. I'm in the same position this game - I don't know why the wolves are making this move today, but I have to assume that they feel like the numbers make sense to prompt it. Otherwise, fake reveal three villagers or wait another day for the reveal.

[Lathum]

Barkeep asked the question I wanted to know.

Why couldn't hoops have been converted last night?

It would explain wht CR didn't wasnt Gonzo to make any moves yet, plus hoops is a pretty good candidate for conversion since at this point the seer hadn't reveald, however, it would be a good guess that hoops would be one of the top 2 players scanned so when the seer did reveal hoops would come back good .

[Lathum]

dola- good show so far hoops!!

[Lathum]

I also see no reason why the scout can't be a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Gonzo is getting so much more leeway here than I am it is ridiculous. He posts that he was told not to make any moves. So he interprets this as "I'm dead". OK.

He then is freed up to make his move, so his first action is not to disclose that he viewed me as a wolf, but to vote for DaddyTorgo.

Then, ten minutes later, he comes back to this and says, "Nope, not sure why I voted for the non-wolf when I'm the seer and viewed a wolf".

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, if the Scout can be a wolf then could the Duke be a wolf? The bodyguard? The seer?

Or is it only the role that I've revealed gets to be a wolf in this game?

Seriously, I know this is going to deflate your "I've been onto him all game!" thought process, but take a minute and think if you would set up a game in this manner? And if you did, if you would answer the question on roles the way that Chief Rum did last night.

[hoopsguy]

If Chief Rum answer the question that I could not have been converted, based on the order of actions, is that going to change anyone's votes? Or will it just change your arguments to state that I've been a wolf the whole time?

Because the latter is pretty frustrating to try and counter and at some point I'll decide I've got better things to do on a Friday afternoon.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Possible Questions/Answers to today's events.

Question #1: Why wouldn't hoops, if he was evil, counter-claim seer?

Because the second claim rarely works. I can't remember a time where it did in fact. And because this clashes with the truth, that is you are the scout.

Question #2: Why would Hoops sacrifice one of his wolf teammates yesterday when he was in no immediate danger at the outset of the day?

You were converted last night. I really kind of like Lathum's suggestion that you are frequently scanned early, and after yesterday would have been pretty much the closest thing we had to a trusted villager. It was perfect timing, I would think, to convert you. And let's not forget that there was no night kill last night, only FURTHER suggesting a conversion.

Question #4: Why would Hoops support DT all game long if they were fellow wolves?

DT being a wolf is just speculation to me. The more I think about it, the more likely it is, to me, that you were a convert.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If Chief Rum answer the question that I could not have been converted, based on the order of actions, is that going to change anyone's votes? Or will it just change your arguments to state that I've been a wolf the whole time?

Because the latter is pretty frustrating to try and counter and at some point I'll decide I've got better things to do on a Friday afternoon.

If answered, I'd seriously have to re-evaulate things, if it was answered in your favor.

[Lathum]

You are claiming the seer could be converted so why not the scout.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You are claiming the seer could be converted so why not the scout.

No reason, but I think hoops is claiming that the seer would not get his scan after the conversion.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

No reason, but I think hoops is claiming that the seer would not get his scan after the conversion.

I understand that

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Personal rant ... I'm extremely bitter about how this is going down, as it will be the first time I've ever been hung as a villager by the villagers in 30+ games of playing WW. Particularly after I've played what I thought was one of my best villager games.

Jack Parkman is confident that your streak will remain intact, since you are a wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

seriously. I think gonzo is going to try to skate through without having to explain his strange actions last night so that they can get the lynch on you hoops. Has he explained them enough to satisfy anyone?

[Lathum]

Hoops puts up a compeling argument but I agree that 90% of the risk would be lynching Gonzo considering he can clear someone else hopefully before he is night killed

[hoopsguy]

Actually, that isn't what I'm claiming.

I'm asking Chief to clarify the order of actions to show that it would be impossible for the seer to view the convert. If the seer view goes before the conversion attempt, then the seer would see a villager, not a wolf.

Which would prove I was not converted last night.

I have no idea what Chief's answer will be, or if he will answer the question, but if he answers it I have a 50% chance of being "cleared" of being converted last night. Which means that you have to examine my full body of work in evaluating the "seer claim".

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, and others who are putting credence in the "no other seer has come forward" argument.

No one has come forward to dispute me as the Scout either. Chief has said that this is a straight-forward game. If no one disputes that I'm the scout, then why does the lack of contention on Gonzo's claim mean more than the lack of contention on my claim?

I don't have time to find it because of being swamped today, and I don't know whether or not I'll be back before deadline, but I recall a post from Chief where he was very non-specific about the ability of the wolves to have a role. I remember because someone said how much would that suck to have a wolf seer........

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

seriously. I think gonzo is going to try to skate through without having to explain his strange actions last night so that they can get the lynch on you hoops. Has he explained them enough to satisfy anyone?

it doesn't matter. All the risk lies in trusting hoops.

Lets say we believe hoops and lynch Gonzo and it ends up he was telling the truth about being the seer? The obviously we lynch hoops next but IMO anyone who feels we should do this the other way around doesn't have the teams best interests at heart

Hoops has to go first

[hoopsguy]

As a wolf, I would not ask that question of Chief because I would know the answer damns me.

As a wolf, I basically try to play it like a trial attorney, only asking questions that I already know the answer. And, of course, that are favorable to me.

As a villager, I'm trying to keep my streak alive with whatever tools are available to me.

[path12]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

ya know what. fuck that. Maybe gonzo is the seer, but he's wrong about me and he's pushing extremely hard considering he has no information. Not a very seer-esque thing to do. I can't vote with him on the basis of that.

VOTE GONZO

*shakes head*

Jack Parkman repeats: No no no no no no no no no no no. That is not the play DT, and you should know that.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

I don't have time to find it because of being swamped today, and I don't know whether or not I'll be back before deadline, but I recall a post from Chief where he was very non-specific about the ability of the wolves to have a role. I remember because someone said how much would that suck to have a wolf seer........

I've quoted it again, along with Chief's response, in Post #1002.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

it doesn't matter. All the risk lies in trusting hoops.

Lets say we believe hoops and lynch Gonzo and it ends up he was telling the truth about being the seer? The obviously we lynch hoops next but IMO anyone who feels we should do this the other way around doesn't have the teams best interests at heart

Hoops has to go first

I hope you guys have the opportunity to win the game after the 1:1 trade. I'm very concerned that it won't work out quite that way, given that the wolves initiated this action today.

I would have been just fine being in this position yesterday because I would have 100% believed that we would benefit from the exchange, even if it ended up as a 2:1 somehow.

[Lathum]

Seems like DT is desperate.

He is the leader to get my vote tomorrow.

[Gonzo]

Give it a rest Hoops. I'm the seer, I've scanned you, you're a wolf. All this BSing "he might have been converted!" is clutching at straws.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

*shakes head*

Jack Parkman repeats: No no no no no no no no no no no. That is not the play DT, and you should know that.

Why wouldn't you want him to vote for the person he believes is a wolf? When I show up as a villager, do you guys benefit from a unanimous block on me?

If you are going to suspect him for this move, it should be because you are worried that he knows exactly how this story will end rather than he isn't making the "correct math play".

Path, you've been convinced I'm a wolf two times in the past where we've gone to war as villagers. Have I acted "too much like Hoops" this game? Your certainty in this, and your vocal actions to keep people from even considering my position, don't strike me as being the measured, considered responses you normally bring to the table. You know that Gonzo's story sucks, but you haven't even considered that based on your posts. Don't hide behind the numbers tomorrow.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I hope you guys have the opportunity to win the game after the 1:1 trade. I'm very concerned that it won't work out quite that way, given that the wolves initiated this action today.

I would have been just fine being in this position yesterday because I would have 100% believed that we would benefit from the exchange, even if it ended up as a 2:1 somehow.

Well considering there are 9 people left, including a the BG I don't see a scenerio where the wolves feel the need to make this play here.

Lets say 3 wolves started and the converted last night. Thats still a 6-3 ratio, no need for them to make that play.

I think it likely you are a wolf and DT is the other, you guys know he will be next and are making the strong play today towards Gonzo.

[DaddyTorgo]

maybe not. but we'll wait to see what CR has to say about the order of night actions.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Possible Questions/Answers to today's events.

Question #1: Why wouldn't hoops, if he was evil, counter-claim seer?
Incorrect Answer: Because he isn't a smart enough player to recognize optimal strategy.
Correct Answer: I would counter-claim seer in this position, and get into a contest of PM details with Gonzo, looking to craft an emotional response that is more in line with people's expectations than the factual information given by the seer. But since I'm not a wolf, I'm sticking to the information I have rather than polluting you with fiction.

Question #2: Why would Hoops sacrifice one of his wolf teammates yesterday when he was in no immediate danger at the outset of the day?
Incorrect Answer: Because Hoops decided to get "too cute" in building trust and it blew up in his face.
Correct Answer: Hoops would look out for his teammates early in the game - there is a certain amount of attention that comes with being the guy who has 2x as many posts as anyone else in the game. That works to the benefit of the other wolves and the detriment of Hoops (who is talking like Jack Partman in this post).

Question #3: Why would the wolves have targetted Gonzo last night to convert? How in the world would they know he is the seer given his lack of posts?
Incorrect Answer: The wolves would not have done this. Hoops is lying and making arguments to try and support his lie.
Correct Answer: Gonzo showed his hand, along with JE, by quickly voting for Pass after the fake seer reveal last night. The wolves responded with their best guess for the seer and hit the 50% call.

Question #4: Why would Hoops support DT all game long if they were fellow wolves?
Incorrect Answer: Because that is what wolves do, they support each other.
Correct Answer: I don't know if DT is a wolf or not, but I'm not willing to accept that his actions match those of a calculating wolf. I think they are much more in line with a badly misguided villager. If I'm wrong on this, then DT has done a better job of mixing up his play than I expected.

My God, Pedro is good. This is amazing to catch up on. Jack Parkman is suitably impressed.

But the fact is, THERE HAS BEEN NO COUNTER TO GONZO'S REVEAL! And in that case, YOU GIVE HIM THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT!

Jack Parkman is not worried about conversions at this point, he is not concerned that a scout may or may not be a wolf, he is not concerned with anything other than GETTING THE SCANNED WOLF LYNCHED!

If Gonzo is fake, he is a wolf and is lynched tomorrow. There is no benefit otherwise for the move, and even if you take conversion as a possibility you are going to have a helluva time explaining to Jack Parkman how a 8-1 or 7-2 villager/wolf count before conversion has gotten bad enough that we are about to lose.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

Give it a rest Hoops. I'm the seer, I've scanned you, you're a wolf. All this BSing "he might have been converted!" is clutching at straws.

If you wanted someone to go quietly into the night, you picked the wrong guy to finger. That is 100% true no matter what side of the game I'm playing.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

Give it a rest Hoops. I'm the seer, I've scanned you, you're a wolf. All this BSing "he might have been converted!" is clutching at straws.

yes but it is fun.

Also I know this is only your second game but Hoops in many peoples opinions is the best overall player ( mine included) so I think people are more inclined to give him the respect he deserves rather then write him off in a situation like this.

That being said I hope Gonzo is right, allthough I won't feel to bad if I am wrong about this one

[path12]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

seriously. I think gonzo is going to try to skate through without having to explain his strange actions last night so that they can get the lynch on you hoops. Has he explained them enough to satisfy anyone?

He doesn't have to explain them. We will know by what hoops comes up as. You're really overthinking this.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm with hoops on this one. Suspect me if you want, but it worries me that one way or another the wolves initiated this and thus feel like they have something to gain out of it.

and like hoops said, what sort of benefit would we get from a unanimous block on him?

think lathum...if hoops and I were both wolves, would I be so vocal here today? no...i would have voted gonzo and then dissapeared all day more or less, instead of sitting here bringing this stuff up again anda gain.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Actually, that isn't what I'm claiming.

I'm asking Chief to clarify the order of actions to show that it would be impossible for the seer to view the convert. If the seer view goes before the conversion attempt, then the seer would see a villager, not a wolf.

Which would prove I was not converted last night.

I have no idea what Chief's answer will be, or if he will answer the question, but if he answers it I have a 50% chance of being "cleared" of being converted last night. Which means that you have to examine my full body of work in evaluating the "seer claim".

No it doesn't. I don't think you've been converted. I think you've been a wolf from the start.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I've quoted it again, along with Chief's response, in Post #1002.

Yeah, and I noticed you didn't include the original quote from Chief. Whereabouts in the thread is that?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

think lathum...if hoops and I were both wolves, would I be so vocal here today? no...i would have voted gonzo and then dissapeared all day more or less, instead of sitting here bringing this stuff up again anda gain.

I disagree with this. Either way a vote on Gonzo looks bad if hoops comes up wolf. I think you guys ( as wolves) realize you are cooked and are making a last ditch effort.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, you've been convinced I'm a wolf two times in the past where we've gone to war as villagers. Have I acted "too much like Hoops" this game? Your certainty in this, and your vocal actions to keep people from even considering my position, don't strike me as being the measured, considered responses you normally bring to the table. You know that Gonzo's story sucks, but you haven't even considered that based on your posts. Don't hide behind the numbers tomorrow.

Very simple, hoops. You were scanned as a wolf this game by someone who hasn't been countered. Not the same thing at all as my read on you being wrong before.

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

think lathum...if hoops and I were both wolves, would I be so vocal here today? no...i would have voted gonzo and then dissapeared all day more or less, instead of sitting here bringing this stuff up again anda gain.

So...voting for the Seer after he's revealed means you're good?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

My God, Pedro is good. This is amazing to catch up on. Jack Parkman is suitably impressed.

But the fact is, THERE HAS BEEN NO COUNTER TO GONZO'S REVEAL! And in that case, YOU GIVE HIM THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT!

Jack Parkman is not worried about conversions at this point, he is not concerned that a scout may or may not be a wolf, he is not concerned with anything other than GETTING THE SCANNED WOLF LYNCHED!

If Gonzo is fake, he is a wolf and is lynched tomorrow. There is no benefit otherwise for the move, and even if you take conversion as a possibility you are going to have a helluva time explaining to Jack Parkman how a 8-1 or 7-2 villager/wolf count before conversion has gotten bad enough that we are about to lose.

I give him credit for no counter-claim, just as I would ask that you give me credit for my role with no counter-claim.

No kill last night screams conversion to me. You absolutely, positively should be worried about conversions under those circumstances.

As far as the numbers, I don't believe that we started with two wolves. I posted on this last night - there is absolutely nothing in the rules that suggests that there were two wolves at the outset. There were two named bad guys, but the language is very neutral on the number of wolves. I think that we've been making a very bad assumption on this point all game long. There were four named good-guy roles to start the game. 14 players, 4 good roles, 2 wolves? Nah, that doesn't add up at all.

As far as not getting a one-for-one trade, I'm concerned about something like a brutal wolf, an ability to dodge a lynch, or some other wolf mechanism. That almost has to be there for them to launch this initiative today.

[path12]

And dola, if you were'nt so friggin' good at this game, there would be no reason for me to shout at people. But you are effectively confusing them and sewing doubt, and for that I tip my hat to you. There is nobody else who plays this game who could get even this close to escaping this position.

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

No kill last night screams conversion to me.

It's screams bodyguard to me, you know, the role that's actually public rather than some hidden game mechanic you might be making up.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

No it doesn't. I don't think you've been converted. I think you've been a wolf from the start.

Cool, so why did I take such an active role in derailing Pass yesterday when we were playing together as wolves?

Seriously, I'm interested in this not just from the perspective of this game, but to understand just how twisted you guys think I am as a wolf.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by path12

There is nobody else who plays this game who could get even this close to escaping this position.

I resent that!!!

and coming from YOU of all people

[path12]

And Jack Parkman is out. He will be stepping up tonight.

Pedro, don't worry, Jack Parkman will not hide behind the numbers if by some infintestimal chance you are good. Jack Parkman will be happy to be lynched if wrong. Right after Gonzo of course.