WW Dukes Versus Hunters (GAME OVER!!--See Post #1387)

[EagleFan]

We still have cheek and bug (and myself) with the odd votes out on that day.

[EagleFan]

timmae was briefly tied for the lead on day one but votes off him seem to be because of his availability.

font makes a semi late move onto Zinto but at that point it was village/village/village so that really doesn't tell us anything. Not sure a wolf really cares which one is lynched at that point as there was no obvious save being made.

[EagleFan]

The wolf kills were JAG, a failed attempt on MartinD (which I am now forced to believe that he knew about it) and Jackal.

Does that tell us anything? All could have been seer hunting. I can see the argument for seer hunting with MartinD as it seems the bodyguard came to that conclusion as well.

I think we have some mistakes by the wolves and some very fortunate events for us. The odds that MartinD just happened to be protecting font on that Vaimes kill attempt made us crazy but it looks like it made them just as crazy. Looks like it was just blind luck. Then the bodyguard protect on MartinD. The good thing is that with anyone knowing they were protected it will let us know if there was a conversion so that won't be a mystery.

[EagleFan]

Now for timmae being duked to today, that was another very fortunate event. The worst possible wolf for them to lose. Maybe it was just a foretelling of what ill happen to the Blackhawks tonight...

[EagleFan]

Okay, it's quiet, headache has been building, time to sign off. Will try to get online tomorrow but my morning is booked with meetings (sometimes I really hate my life.. ) but will try to get on at lunch. If I can manage a work from home I will be able to post better at lunch as I have been avoiding using my work computer as things have been real tense since the buyout and it seems everything is being watched (waiting to see someone standing outside the restrooms with a stopwatch when people enter). Just about to hit 10 years at this job, already getting screwed by the buyout as I would have picked up another week of vacation starting this month based on what we used to get but not with the new company, I have 5 more years to wait for that...

Sorry, this post turned into a venting thread.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

We still have cheek and bug (and myself) with the odd votes out on that day.

I posted that I was out in meetings from the late morning til after deadline. I never had a chance to switch it.

[Narcizo]

You see Shoveler. What you did is exactly what the villager shouldn't do in these situations.

I apologise for my overall crap play yesterday. Particularly the part where I suggested that the seer take a shot if we didn't hit a wolf, which is a shockingly ill-thought out suggestion. However the fact remains that this game is starting to cost me sleep and that's my warning sign that I should dial it back.

I think I should be considered a lynch target. I even don't find it too far-fetched to suggest that I'd make up all that stuff about Martin being a wolf yesterday even if I was a wolf. It's an awful lot of work to make just to be proved wrong by the first person who showed up, but hey, its possible. I've been known to put in that kind of effort before.

For what it's worth (little) I find it more likely that Autumn is a wolf than Font. Font is Strider and I'm Frodo, which means that Autumn must be Sauron. At the moment though I think they both might be village. Don't think wolf-Font takes a shot at someone who probably wasn't a power-role when her wolf buddy has just been killed. Yes, it's reckless for a villager to do that but it still seems more villagy to me.

Where are we at? 10 people - 2 Wolves, 1 cultist and 7 villagers. 2 of the villagers are power roles. I tend to agree with Font that the seer should reveal today, if they have any scan result that we don't know. We´ve had a huge amount of luck with the wolves not hitting the power roles but the ranks are narrowing and I don't know if we want to roll the dice on that for one more night if the seer has anything of value to add. I think the wolves will be able to narrow the field right down on the power roles at the moment.

Of course, it's possible that the seer doesn't have any scan results - I've been there, done that as a seer. They might have scanned people who are now dead or had scans fail because of lynching. I guess that's a judgement call in that case. Just bear in mind that there's probably a good chance that the wolves are going to get you. They have a much better chance of picking you out than the bodyguard does because they know who the wolves are and may have an idea about the cultist.

We still get two cleared villagers with a seer and bodyguard reveal. I'm presuming Shoveler isn't one of them as I don't think he'd take the risk of duking if he were. So that's three that are as good as cleared. I'll send an item to Shoveler that might help the seer if he chooses to reveal. So if the seer and bodyguard reveal the BG can protect the seer tonight to give us another scan. Maybe the seer gets brutalled but at least that means we've got another wolf then. Of course, the bodyguard shouldn't reveal until after the seer has.

[Narcizo]

Day One

13:31 #80 timmae votes cheeki (1)
13:36 #81 Vaimes votes font (1)
13:36 #82 Eagle votes timmae (1)
13:37 #85 Martin votes Shoveler (1)
13:37 #85 Vaimes unvotes Font, votes Timmae (2) / Timmae 2
13:40 #89 JAG vote Jackal (1)
13:48 #95 Shoveler votes Vaimes (1)
13:51 #99 Grover votes Narcizo (1)
14:32 #104 Cheeki votes Raven (1)
14:56 #106 Raven votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal 2
15:08 #108 Narcizo votes Zinto (1)
15:35 #113 Britrock votes Shoveler (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
15:38 #115 JAG unvotes Jackal (1), votes Raven (1) / Timmae, Shoveler 2
16.51 #134 Jackal votes Grover (1)
18:57 #148 JAG unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (1)

20:28 #154 Timmae unvotes cheeki (0), votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
20:00 #163 Zinto votes Vaimes (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
22:52 #178 Bug votes Font (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:06 #187 JAG unvotes Fonti (1) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:37 #190 Cheeki unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler; Vaimes 2
08:03 #197 Jag votes cheeki (1)
08:14 #202 Grover unvotes Narc (0), votes Fonti (3) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
09:32 #210 Font votes Grover (2) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Grover, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:09 #229 Jackal unvotes Grover (1) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:27 #237 Jackal votes timmae (3) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
11:54 #264 Autumn votes cheeki (2) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, cheeki, Vaimes 2
11:55 #268 Grover unvotes Font (2), votes Martin (1) / Timmae 3, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12.07 #276 Jackal unvotes timmae (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2

12:31 #283 Jackal votes Zinto (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto, Vaimes 2
12:40 #293 Cheeki unvotes Font (1), votes Vaimes (3) / Vaimes 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto 2
14:08 #310 Grover unvotes Martin (0)
14:15 #312 Vaimes unvotes Timmae, votes Zinto (3) / Vaimes, Zinto 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki 2
14:17 #316 JAG unvotes cheeki (1), votes Zinto (4) / Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal, Shoveler 2
14:18 #317 Britrock unvotes Shoveler (1), votes Jackal (3) / Zinto 4, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:21 #321 Fonti unvotes Grover (1), votes Zinto (5) / Zinto 5, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:26 #326 Grover votes Zinto (6) / Zinto 6, Jackal , Vaimes 3
14:26 #327 Shoveler unvotes Vaimes (2), votes Jackal (4) / Zinto 5, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
14:59 #343 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Zinto (7) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
15:52 #358 Martin unvotes Shoveler (0), votes Jackal (5) /Zinto 7, Jackal 5, Vaimes 2
15:57 #363 Zinto unvotes Vaimes (1) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4


Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

[Narcizo]

Day Two

21:36 #464 Autumn votes Cheeki (1)
22:13 #480 Cheeki votes Martin (1)
08:15 #495 Timmae votes Martin (2) / Martin 2
08:24 #496 Grover votes Cheeki (2) / Cheeki 2
08:38 #500 Eagle votes Martin (3) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
10:25 #521 Grover unvotes Cheeki (1) / Martin 3
13:05 #572 Shoveler votes Autumn (1)
13:20 #577 Grover votes MrBug (1)
13:22 #579 Martin votes Cheeki (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
13:29 #580 Narcizo votes Autumn (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki, Autumn 2
13:49 #584 Cheeki unvotes Martin (2), votes Autumn (3) / Autumn 3, Cheeki, Martin 2

14:27 #592 Grover unvotes MrBug (0)
14:35 #595 Raven votes Martin (3) / Autumn, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
14:52 #598 Grover votes Autumn (4) / Autumn 4, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
15:22 #608 Britrock votes Martin (4) /Autumn, Martin 4, Cheeki 2
15:31 #611 Cheeki unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (5) / Martin 5, Autumn 3, Cheeki 2
15:46 #621 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (1), votes Martin (6) / Martin 6, Autumn 3
15:41 #629 Bug votes Autumn (4) / Martin 6, Autumn 4
15:53 #632 Martin unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Autumn (5) / Martin 6, Autumn 5
15:56 #637 Narcizo unvotes Autumn (4), votes Martin (7) / Martin 7, Autumn 4
15:58 #644 Shoveler unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (8) / Martin 8, Autumn 3

FINAL Day Two Vote Tally

MartinD (8) -- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595), britrock88 (608), cheekimonk (611), Autumn (621), Narcizo (637), Shoveler (644)
Autumn (3) -- Grover (598), MrBug708 (629), MartinD (632)

No Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes
Unable to Vote: fontisian

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

It's still a gain for the wolves, though, no?

Originally Posted by fontisian

No. The wolves lose a night kill, which they cannot afford with the seer and bodyguard still slive.

I generally agree with font except with the caveat that if the cultist has already been scanned then the wolves get another cunning if they convert him.

I still don't see the gain for wolf-font to take a shot. I guess if she presumes she's getting lynched today anyway she might as well take someone out. But then surely she would target Shoveler (Duke, pretty much cleared) or a potential power role instead of Autumn. I don't think it seems likely Autumn has a power role.

The bit where she claims that she thinks Brit hinted a scan of Autumn but she took the shot to prove it (or whatever), on the other hand, seems bat-shit insane.

[Narcizo]

Day Three

11:21 #799 Cheeki votes fonti (1)
11:38 #806 Autumn votes Fonti (2) / Fonti 2
11:44 #807 Shoveler votes Fonti (3) / Font 3
12:07 #815 Jackal votes Eagle (1)
12:15 #821 Fonti votes Eagle (2) / Font 3, Eagle 2
12:33 #844 Grover votes Eagle (3) / Font, Eagle 3
13:12 #859 Timmae votes Eagle (4) / Eagle 4, Font 3
13:44 #870 Bug votes Eagle (5) / Eagle 5, Font 3
15:15 #885 Narcizo votes Fonti (4) / Eagle 5, Font 4
15:27 #886 Britrock votes Fonti (5) / Eagle, Font 5
15:45 #890 Raven votes Fonti (6) / Font 6, Eagle 5
15:59 #901 Jackal unvotes Eagle, votes Fonti (7) / Font 7, Eagle 4


FINAL Day Three Vote Tally

fontisian (7)-- cheekimonk (799), Autumn (806), Shoveler (807), Narcizo (885), britrock88 (886), Raven (890), The Jackal (901)
EagleFan (4)-- fontisian (821), Grover (844), timmae (859), MrBug708 (870)

Yet to Vote: EagleFan

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

The bit where she claims that she thinks Brit hinted a scan of Autumn but she took the shot to prove it (or whatever), on the other hand, seems bat-shit insane.

My vote is still on font, for now, but just pointing out that we don't lynch people around these parts just for being bat-shit insane.

[Shoveler]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

You see Shoveler. What you did is exactly what the villager shouldn't do in these situations.

In a normal game I would totally agree. In this game with all the dukes left I figured coming at them from the side may be the best approach.

But you may be right, maybe that was a bad play. Yesterday it felt like the odds were stacked against us and perhaps I could deliver us a miracle. But with two hunter vets taking terrible shots and then I pulled a wolf I guess I'm the least bad of the bad plays made thus far in this game.

[Narcizo]

I was joking.

Well, not really. It was a bad play. But we deserve a bit of luck I think.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Shoveler

In a normal game I would totally agree. In this game with all the dukes left I figured coming at them from the side may be the best approach.

But you may be right, maybe that was a bad play. Yesterday it felt like the odds were stacked against us and perhaps I could deliver us a miracle. But with two hunter vets taking terrible shots and then I pulled a wolf I guess I'm the least bad of the bad plays made thus far in this game.

I have zero issue with what you did. You're a good guy in my book right now.

[cheekimonk]

That was out of character for font (generally a very good player), but there was some tension there with Autumn, too, and if nothing else font is emotional. I like my original instinct:

unvote fontisian
vote Narcizo

[Narcizo]

Ok I've read through the thread and have noticed a couple of things. My trust list is something like:

Shoveler
Raven
EagleFan
MrBug
Cheekimonk
Grover
Britrock

I've left Autumn and font off the list because I don't trust my judgement about either of them. My vote will currently go with Shoveler.

[Narcizo]

As in I will vote for whoever Shoveler votes for.

[Grover]

So far... I may have missed something...

britrock88 - Raven (926)
fontisian - Autumn (929), Grover (956)
Narcizo - cheekimonk (1016)

Cheeki went Narc originally on Post 941, but flopped to font on post 971 after the attempted shooting of Autumn. Cheek then flipped back to Narc on post 1016 by saying that font had lost her mind and that was unlike her.

Cheeki is quickly moving up my suspicious list.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Grover

So far... I may have missed something...

britrock88 - Raven (926)
fontisian - Autumn (929), Grover (956)
Narcizo - cheekimonk (1016)

Cheeki went Narc originally on Post 941, but flopped to font on post 971 after the attempted shooting of Autumn. Cheek then flipped back to Narc on post 1016 by saying that font had lost her mind and that was unlike her.

Cheeki is quickly moving up my suspicious list.

Well, let me clarify then. It's so out of character and emotional that it muddles the picture on her. I still lean wolf on her, but I do on Narc and nothing's happened to muddy that up.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

Well, let me clarify then. It's so out of character and emotional that it muddles the picture on her. I still lean wolf on her, but I do on Narc and nothing's happened to muddy that up.

Okay. So what is your read on Shoveler with Narc saying he will follow Shoveler's vote?

[Narcizo]

Theoretically should we be looking to lynch the cultist if we suspect one or concentrating on wolves?

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Theoretically should we be looking to lynch the cultist if we suspect one or concentrating on wolves?

Wolves. Game ends if we get the two wolves, even if the cultist remains, right?

I'd guess yhsy the wolves would rather spend their time finding the Seer/BG than trying to find the Cultist.

[Shoveler]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Theoretically should we be looking to lynch the cultist if we suspect one or concentrating on wolves?

At this point I would suggest we look at the wolves, and if we suspect who the cultist is the BG should protect that person from a night kill. We cannot afford the conversion.

I'll have some more thoughts later.. I need to run out this morning.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Grover

Okay. So what is your read on Shoveler with Narc saying he will follow Shoveler's vote?

Everyone reads Shoveler as town...which would make an excellent reason for a wolf to attach himself to him.

[MrBug708]

Checking in before testing starts. It's the last day of it so I'll be around more

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by fontisian

You are one of two possible wolves on the Zinto lynch and you did not claim yesterDay when I said was going to shoot you. Add in that I'm town, Shoveler's town, Raven, Grover and MrBug708 are probably town, the seer can claim and clear themselves and others, and the bodyguard, if necessary, can claim and clear themselves, and we're going to win this. There was no reason not to shoot.

Sorry but why are bug, grover and raven probably village?

[Raven]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

Everyone reads Shoveler as town...which would make an excellent reason for a wolf to attach himself to him.

Agreed.
I think it's out of character for Narc to say I'll vote with Shoveler, as if he trusts Shoveler's intuition over his own. Very sketchy.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Raven

Agreed.
I think it's out of character for Narc to say I'll vote with Shoveler, as if he trusts Shoveler's intuition over his own. Very sketchy.

Yeah. You haven't played with me much. Its the friday. Or narkle-meltdown day as its known. Except it happened one day earlier this time. Probably because of the early deadline..

[Grover]

Gonna be out of the office for roughly 3-4 hours. Should be back for deadline

[Chief Rum]

Day Four Vote Tally (as of Post #1030)


fontisian (2)-- Autumn (929), Grover (957)
britrock88 (1)-- Raven (926)
Narcizo (1)-- cheekimonk (1016)

Yet to Vote: A Plethora

[Narcizo]

But if you want to know what my intuition has told me today

Font is a cultist and britrock and cheeki are wolves as she signaled them by not mentioning them as being probably town.

No! Wait! Autumn is a wolf, font is a villager, Britrock is the cultist. Autumn claims I'm good so I can be village choice of lynch tomorrow, while he argues for a different villager. Britrock emphasized that timmae was out of office on day one.

No! Actually fontisian is the cultist buying trust for wolf-Autumn.

Literally etc. etc.

So let me be the judge of who's intuition is more trustworthy thankyouverymuch.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Shoveler

At this point I would suggest we look at the wolves, and if we suspect who the cultist is the BG should protect that person from a night kill. We cannot afford the conversion.

I'll have some more thoughts later.. I need to run out this morning.

Over the seer???

[britrock88]

I'm caught up, and things make less sense than they did before. Does the group not think there's something to gain lynching into Font/Autumn? Because I think there is.

[Raven]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

But if you want to know what my intuition has told me today

Font is a cultist and britrock and cheeki are wolves as she signaled them by not mentioning them as being probably town.

No! Wait! Autumn is a wolf, font is a villager, Britrock is the cultist. Autumn claims I'm good so I can be village choice of lynch tomorrow, while he argues for a different villager. Britrock emphasized that timmae was out of office on day one.

No! Actually fontisian is the cultist buying trust for wolf-Autumn.

Literally etc. etc.

So let me be the judge of who's intuition is more trustworthy thankyouverymuch.

So what you are saying is you are confused.
Well, we're all in the same boat.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by britrock88

I'm caught up, and things make less sense than they did before. Does the group not think there's something to gain lynching into Font/Autumn? Because I think there is.

I considered that, but at this point it feels like a rabbit hole. Maybe it's fatigue from thinking through all the events around font, but 2 of those involved were town and this kind of stuff is perfect for wolves to lay low while it keeps going deeper (a la timmae).

[Shoveler]

The duke/hunter mechanics of this game are throwing me for a loop. I'm not certain there is any justification for putting a known hunter on the block. If they are town, they can't duke. If they are a wolf, does the last remaining duke wolf reveal themselves for a save, probably not unless they have items that have already won the game for them.

The seer at this point either has good reads, or wasted reads. We can afford probably one mislynch and the game is over if the wolves have a hunter in reserve and the ammo clip. So I dont think the seer is that important going forward, and just mentioning the idea that the bodyguard should protect the cultist should put doubt into the minds of the wolves over where to go with their night kill if the seer reveals. Will the seer be protected or not?

If the cultist is found by the wolves, I'm guessing we are hosed, but I haven't run the actual scenarios at this point.

I dunno, my head is spinning.. need to reread the damn thread.

[britrock88]

Yeah, I can't shake that feeling. Not yet, anyway.

vote Fontisian

[Autumn]

I'm worried we still have so many no votes this far along in the day.

[EagleFan]

Have a few moments to post, barring any meetings that drag me away I should be able to sneak a few other moments throughout the day (working from home; I won't have to worry about being on the work laptop/network).

[EagleFan]

vote font

I keep coming back to the me versus font thing. From what I see Autumn doesn't seem like a wolf but my reads have been awful all game.

[EagleFan]

Oh, that last post was not any attempt to hint at being a seer. I am not the seer. (just realized how that was worded and don't want any confusion)

[Autumn]

Yet to vote: narc, shoveler, font, mrbug

Mr bug is the one I worry about most there (aside from font obviously). It's almost impossible to get a read on him so far.

[Chief Rum]

Day Four Vote Tally (as of Post #1043)


fontisian (4)-- Autumn (929), Grover (957), britrock88 (1038), EagleFan (1041)
britrock88 (1)-- Raven (926)
Narcizo (1)-- cheekimonk (1016)

Yet to Vote: Narcizo, Shoveler, fontisian, MrBug708

[Raven]

Still not sure if I want to go font/Grover/Bug
or
Narc/Brit/?

so for now I will consolidate
unvote britrock
vote Narcizo

[MrBug708]

vote brit

[fontisian]

Narc, I'm the blank. I can't be the cultist.

The seer needs to claim now so every town Duke can Duke to an actual scum. Please do it.

Vote Autumn

Or, we can with this.

There's something to the fact that the only person voting me who I didn't call as possible scum at the beginning of the Day is Grover.

[Raven]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Narc, I'm the blank. I can't be the cultist.

This is false.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

CULTIST-- You are a villager but you are a wannabe wolf. You win with the wolves, but count towards the village for win conditions. You know the wolves' identities and their Hunter/Duke allegiances. You cannot PM a player like the others, but you can receive PMs. You do not have a natural Hunter or Duke ability, although you will be a member of one of those teams. You have the ability to act as a member of one of those teams as if you were The Blank (Hunter team) or Stuttering Sam (Duke team). If you are attacked by the wolves, you will join them.

Actually, that's a really good case for me to vote for you.
You are either The Blank or you are The Cultist, but you are not both.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Shoveler

If the cultist is found by the wolves, I'm guessing we are hosed, but I haven't run the actual scenarios at this point.
.

I can't help but think that font is the cultist. The only thing making me think that she was good was the question of why a wolf would make such an overt play. It would make sense if she was the cultist. I can think of reasons why cultist-font would make that move. The question is whether we should lynch her if she is.

If its 7:2:1 then lynching the cultist should leave us 6:2 if there's an unblocked night kill. ToMorrow a misslynch and night kill would be 4:2. If the wolves daykill and duke or nightkill it would be 2:2. However that would be the absolute worst case scenario. We would have less unknowns and a better handle on the information.

If we work around the cultist and look for a wolf (or if we miss the cultist) if we misslynch then it will be (barring a block) 5:2:1. If the wolves day kill, duke to a hunter and night kill then that gives them the win. They would have to really ride their luck there though. However final days almost always go to the wolves.

My feeling is to lynch font.

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Sorry but why are bug, grover and raven probably village?

Sorry, missed this.

They're relatively new and the voted next to timmae when a villager was being targeted by the other wagon.