01-29-2010, 07:59 PM | #1001 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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What I was saying was that I wanted to look over vote history from previous days and do some vote analysis. Which I did a bit of and posted my thoughts about day 1 and the likelyhood that spleen, Dubb/Render or both are wolves. |
01-29-2010, 07:59 PM | #1002 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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I'm really hoping poli isn't the warlock. That means no wolf lynch tonight
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01-29-2010, 08:01 PM | #1003 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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deadline
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01-29-2010, 08:02 PM | #1004 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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noswitching??? *faints*
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01-29-2010, 08:04 PM | #1005 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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01-29-2010, 08:04 PM | #1006 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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01-29-2010, 08:06 PM | #1007 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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You all gather around and determine you must do something, anything. Ballots are cast and votes are counted, Poli-Render-Spleen-Poli-Render-Spleen, it keeps going that way until there is a tie between Poli and Render, you all look at each other. There is a tie, no one will be lynched tonight! Poli and Render let out sighs of relief, just then Autumn looks down into the hat you have been collecting to catch votes and says "what? There is one more vote. He slowly reaches in and unfolds the paper, scrawled in barely legible writing it says, Poli.
You all grab poli and lynch him, as you loot through his pockets nothing turns up except his guild membership card to Vols4evah. Poli was a villager. |
01-29-2010, 08:07 PM | #1008 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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You wake up the next morning, all of you but autumn, apparently he never made it to bed, he is found in the hallway ripped lib from limb, Autumn was the Priest
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01-29-2010, 08:07 PM | #1009 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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well there's our answer. Vole4evah...lol
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01-29-2010, 08:08 PM | #1010 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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I kinda expected that. Sorry Autumn bud.
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01-29-2010, 08:10 PM | #1011 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Yeah, I knew I had one day left in me. Glad to see we actually accomplished something, even if we lynched a villager.
Good luck! |
01-29-2010, 08:12 PM | #1012 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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01-29-2010, 11:16 PM | #1013 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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01-30-2010, 02:33 AM | #1014 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: East Lothian, Scotland
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A quick summary of how I see the situation:
The Day 5 vote proves that the warlock role is in the game, and is one of the players who voted for Poli - J23, spleen1015, RendeR or myself. The Day 2 vote helps to narrow this down further - if the warlock was one of the people who voted for Schmidty (spleen1015, RendeR, GoldenEagle or EagleFan), it would have been a tied vote between Schmidty and EagleFan, not an EagleFan lynch. That removes spleen1015 and RendeR from consideration, meaning that the warlock is either J23 or myself. I know that I'm not the warlock, so there's only one place my Day 6 vote is going: VOTE J23 Some further thoughts: We're currently at 9 players, and we know that the warlock is still alive. If there were originally 5 wolves, we're currently at 5-4. If that's the case, I think that the game would be over - with the warlock adding an extra vote on the wolves' side, there's no way that the village could win (the wolves can force a tie in the lynch vote by voting as a block, then hit on the night kill to draw level). This makes me think that there were not 5 wolves in the game initially. If there were originally 4 wolves, we're currently at 6-3 - effectively 6-4 on lynch votes because of the warlock. If we do not lynch a wolf with the next vote, and the wolves make their night kill (this isn't certain, as the paladin is one of the remaining players, if that role is in the game), the count becomes 4-3, with the warlock adding an extra vote to the Horde side of the vote - tied vote, so the wolves win (by the same thinking as I used above). If there were originally 3 wolves, the position is a bit better - currently at 7-2, with one of those wolves known to be one of two players (J23 and myself). I'm fairly sure that I'm understanding the current situation correctly, based on the rules of this game - please correct me if I'm misunderstanding something, or if I've got something wrong. |
01-30-2010, 08:32 AM | #1015 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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So we've finally nailed the warlock, nicely done. Whoever had said it was easier to engineer this later in the game, you obviously were right:
vote J23 vote nightfall |
01-30-2010, 01:30 PM | #1016 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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I assure you that I am not the warlock. If you lynch me, we lose, plain and simple. Look back through the thread and think if I've been playing like a wolf or not.
vote MartinD |
01-30-2010, 03:29 PM | #1017 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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PB, why did you vote nightfall without even considering in your post that Martin could be the warlock? J has been under more heat, but I'd like to at least hear some thoughts on this - if J isn't the warlock and Martin is then we lose, and this could easily be an endgame scenario you are trying to push.
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01-30-2010, 05:29 PM | #1018 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
Just went back, I thought that was a CF post, not a Martin D post, and I tend to trust CF this game. Hmm, let's start here and then I'll still consider one or the other. unvote nightfall |
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01-30-2010, 05:40 PM | #1019 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Quote:
My guess was that he was another wolf trying to get a quick run going. I'm not sure what I can say at this point that I haven't said already to show that I'm not a wolf. I guess I'll try to look at Martin's posts this game, but other than forgetting to unvote during the first attempt at exposing the warlock, I don't remember anything signifcant that he's done. |
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01-30-2010, 06:40 PM | #1020 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Vote J23
I had this one right the other day, the voting record supports it. I still think we're screwed but we gotta fight the good fight. |
01-30-2010, 10:03 PM | #1021 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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01-31-2010, 05:19 PM | #1022 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Wow, quiet weekend and I'm sort of surprised there was no push either way.
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01-31-2010, 05:25 PM | #1023 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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01-31-2010, 05:30 PM | #1024 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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01-31-2010, 05:42 PM | #1025 |
Coordinator
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Location: New Hampshire
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01-31-2010, 07:20 PM | #1026 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Turned out my date was kinda hot so I forgot to check in at the deadline.
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Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
01-31-2010, 07:46 PM | #1027 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
Stop putting your hand on the stove.... |
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02-01-2010, 04:37 AM | #1028 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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LOL! That's the funniest thing I've read this minute...okay this week...
oh yeah VOTE SPLEEN |
02-01-2010, 06:35 AM | #1029 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
I know I haven't been cleared as a wolf, but I have been cleared as the Warlock. We know that the Warlock is either MartinD or J23, so why would you vote for me if you were a villager? I'm not sure who I am going to vote for today. You can bet it is going to be J23 or MartinD. If we manage to get the Warlock, then CF is next I think. Current vote count: J23 (3) - MartinD(1014), PurdueBrad(1015), RendeR(1020) MartinD (1) - J23(1016) spleen1015 (1) - CrimsonFox(1028)
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Why choose failure when success is an option? |
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02-01-2010, 07:00 AM | #1030 |
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Location: DeKalb, IL
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02-01-2010, 07:58 AM | #1031 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Quote:
There is no reason for a villager to not vote for either MartinD or myself. With the warlock in play, if we split up, we could very easily allow the wolves to pick the lynch target, and with a successful NK, we could be at the end-game. Either believe me or MartinD, and vote for the other one. I clearly am advocating a vote for MartinD. |
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02-01-2010, 08:48 AM | #1032 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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VOTE J23
Looking at the Day 1-3 voting history, J23's vote were all made in place where I think it is good to hide the Warlock. He was the first vote placed on DV on Day 1. That is a good place to hide the Warlock. MartinD also voted for DV this day, the 2nd vote. I don't see the Warlock making this play. On Day 2, he was the deciding vote against EF. His 2nd voted gets hidden because his first is the deciding vote. On Day 3, he was the last vote in a runaway situation with RealDeal. The perfect place to hide 2 votes.
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02-01-2010, 08:50 AM | #1033 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Current vote count:
J23 (4) - MartinD(1014), PurdueBrad(1015), RendeR(1020), spleen1015(1032) MartinD (1) - J23(1016) spleen1015 (1) - CrimsonFox(1028)
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Why choose failure when success is an option? |
02-01-2010, 09:21 AM | #1034 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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I need to go back and do some vote analysis, but yeah, we should be choosing between Martin and J23 today.
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02-01-2010, 09:22 AM | #1035 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Yep, my votes suck. They've been pretty vocal votes for the most part, which isn't exactly wolf-like, but I guess you're going to ignore that and have us lose. Oh well, we're behind enough right now, that it would take some damn good votes to win anyway.
I could reiterate why I voted which way every day, but if you look back a day or two, I've already done so. Feel free to go back and re-read them if you like. |
02-01-2010, 09:26 AM | #1036 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
As a wolf, you're supposed to be un-wolf like right? I could be totally wrong, but this is where I am staying today.
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Why choose failure when success is an option? |
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02-01-2010, 09:31 AM | #1037 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Has anyone put together something like this for the rest of the days? I'd love to dive into the vote history today, but don't have time to compile all this stuff.
Quote:
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02-01-2010, 10:18 AM | #1038 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Quote:
I did it for day 2. I don't know of one that's been done since. |
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02-01-2010, 10:23 AM | #1039 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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So, on Day 2, Schmidty was going down until J23 switched his vote to EF and EF was a villager.
I am inclined to think that J23 is Mr. Warlock, Schmidty is another wolf since J23 moved of of him to kill a villager, saving a wolf and Crimson Fox is a wolf based on his vote for me today being unvillager like.
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02-01-2010, 10:37 AM | #1040 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Just like you'd think that EF was a wolf because of his late switch to saldana night 1. Oh wait, he was a villager too.
Villagers screw up the votes and get villagers lynched more often than wolves at deadline. Wolves know they'll get pressure by doing it and don't want it, villagers don't know which vote will get them pressure. I'm really too busy today at work to dig up much of anything, and I'll be in class until right around deadline. If I'm lynched, and the game's somehow not over, please lynch MartinD and then look at Dubb/Render, who's vote on day 1 looks suspicious when he made a change from DV to Saldana(now a known villager). With the warlock on DV and after he was gone for the night due to time zones, they might have written off DV as dead, but if not, that's likely the move to try to save him. |
02-01-2010, 10:58 AM | #1041 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: East Lothian, Scotland
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Quote:
This might be the only thing that J23 and I agree on today... |
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02-01-2010, 12:51 PM | #1042 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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This is a tough one, I can see cases for either of these guys being a wolf or villager.
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02-01-2010, 01:33 PM | #1043 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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My vote stands. I won't be around at Deadlin as I will be taking Telle out for her Birthday tonight.
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02-01-2010, 02:27 PM | #1044 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Quote:
I'm not surprised I guess. Looking back, I'm not sure how Dubb/Render didn't get more scrutiny after the day 1 switch from DV to Saldana to make things interesting didn't recieve more scrutiny. I guess more focus this game has been on the last minute switches which has killed EF, Clap, and looking like myself tonight. So, if I had to guess... Martin - warlock (duh) Render - brutal (dubb probably not worried about being lynched if he takes out another) Spleen - only looking at my votes today rather than Martin's makes me awful suspicious It's probably over tonight anyway, but just in case I figured I would put this down while I have a few minutes. |
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02-01-2010, 02:55 PM | #1045 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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I'd like to hear from KWhit because he's about the only person I have any modicum of trust in right now
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02-01-2010, 03:24 PM | #1046 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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I've been looking over the thread a bit and keep coming back to the day where J23 was on the block. Wednesday of last week I think it was.
At around 5:00 of that day, J23 was very much in jeopardy of being lynched. I think he was tied or one back from the lead. And then a ton of people unvoted him for no real reason and went elsewhere. It starts around post 753. Take a look. The following people unvoted him, taking him out of the running. MartinD CrimsonFox RendeR In fact, Render says here: Quote:
I even pointed out at the time that looked suspicious to me. Why? Because we've all seen wolves who place a vote on another wolf to try to gain credibility. But then they have to move it when the wolf looks like he may actually get lynched. Any time someone backs off a previous vote by saying "I just wanted to get discussion going" or something like that it throws up a big red flag to me. So I lean to the side of thinking that J23 is a wolf. However, I don't like it that so many people are voting for him. I was originally leaning toward voting for MartinD just to keep it close and put pressure on the wolves. But after thinking about it, I realize that's a big mistake. If all the villagers split the votes between the two candidates, the wolves can just vote at the deadline (or move their vote at deadline) and lynch the villager. Because they have 4 votes at their disposal. In other words, we're in trouble. So in my opinion, we need to pile our votes together on the candidate that we think is most wolfish. To me, that candidate is J23. I'm not sold on this and will certainly listen to other thoughts. But whichever way we go, we need to decide as a group and load up our votes on that candidate. Otherwise, the wolves will move their votes and lynch the villager. Then it's 4 votes vs. 4 votes and we basically lose the game. Open to changing if someone can present a clear case against MartinD, but for now: VOTE J23 |
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02-01-2010, 03:36 PM | #1047 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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I can't really argue with that. Here's hoping that J is the warlock, that will really open things up for us.
VOTE J23 |
02-01-2010, 03:41 PM | #1048 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Well, the first person in that run you point out Kwhit is MartinD. Is there any scenario where you think that he and I are both wolves here?
Anyway, I've argued a lot more than I care to in this game already. Almost all of it had been based off a bad late switch off an incorrect vote count. Oh well, good work spinning it without being heavy-handed wolves. As I said before, no idea if I'll be on before deadline, but no way I'm changing my vote, and not going to vote nightfall in case the village wakes up. A nightfall at this point loses the game for us. |
02-01-2010, 03:42 PM | #1049 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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If you are a villager the village has played an epicly crappy game with their late movements and then resulting lynch decisions.
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02-01-2010, 03:50 PM | #1050 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Quote:
I've thought about that, and it's possible, but not likely. I think the more likely scenario is that CrimsonFox and/or RendeR saw an opportunity to move their vote and perhaps save you when MartinD unvoted you (for whatever reason). So that's part of the reason for my vote - in addition to your vote switch on day 2 that killed the chance of us locating the warlock earlier. |
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