2024 NFL Offseason, Free Agency, and Draft Talk

[JonInMiddleGA]

The Lawrence contract appears completely absurd, only a major leap could possibly justify it afaic.

The production difference between Lawrence & Mac Jones compared to their relative status at the moment ... it's comical.

[Ksyrup]

This is how it works though. It's all timing. Daniel Jones benefitted. Way back when, I think Joe Flacco had a similar pot o' gold fall into his lap. Teams pay because they don't want to end up without a known quantity with at least some redeeming value at QB because it could easily cost them years of competitiveness - which, I assume, either offsets the contract or at least makes it worth not gambling on an unknown future by letting him walk.

Dak's going to probably set the market at this point. He's better than Lawrence, but he's not that good. Funny enough, every Cowboys fan I know IRL wants him gone.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

He's better than Lawrence, but he's not that good. Funny enough, every Cowboys fan I know IRL wants him gone.

That's the part I wonder about. Do the Cowboys roll the dice and move on? Or do they pony up? I sort of lean toward them rolling the dice.

[Danny]

He needs to improve for sure. So far his careee numbers and performance match up almost exactly to Gardner Minshew

[albionmoonlight]

Kamara holding out.

Smart move by him. He gets ~$10 million base this year, and then he's a pretty obvious cut next year. And RBs age poorly--and older RBs get paid with that in mind.

And the coaching staff is in win-now mode to keep their jobs.

So this is his last and best chance to try and squeeze a bit more money out of the team.

[JPhillips]

I've said it before, but this deal is the hardest decision for a GM. It's easy to offer the mega-deal to a superstar and it's easy to cut the guy you think you can replace easily. The hard decision is whether to pay the second tier guy who probably won't get you to a championship but also is likely irreplaceable in the short term. The incentives for the GM almost always lead to paying the player and hoping things turn out well because the other choice almost certainly means more losses next season.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

The Lawrence contract appears completely absurd, only a major leap could possibly justify it afaic.

The production difference between Lawrence & Mac Jones compared to their relative status at the moment ... it's comical.

Page 1:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

If you don't pay Goff, Tagovailoa, Cousins, etc... you'll end up with someone like O'Connell, Howell, Ridder, or Pickett, if you're lucky.

And while theoretically the former group can get you the results of a Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Jackson, etc... if you also have a complimentary weapon or two and/or an offensive mastermind at HC or OC, that's not going to be true with the latter group.

So, super-simple, it's supply and demand, and less than half of the league has QBs that can get their teams to the playoffs and be a somewhat legitimate threat once there.

So, you've got to pay those guys or tear it down and try to draft one. But if you've built an otherwise strong team (DET, MIA, MIN are decent examples) that's a lot of sunk cost to punt on. I would imagine it's really hard to tell an owner or a fanbase "yeah, we might be in the top half of the league and with a lucky break or two we're in the Super Bowl, but the chances aren't high, so we're going to get rid of everyone and tank to take our chances on a franchise QB in the draft."

It's just simple supply-and-demand. If we're being pretty generous, there are around 16 QBs who can be a big part of getting you to the playoffs or better, and that includes a bunch that are going to need a really good team and staff around them for this to happen. All the teams without one of these QBs is looking at non-playoff mediocrity at best, to their QB being actively detrimental to their ability to win at worst.


Now, while I realize Lawrence has similar stats to Jones & Minshew (or whatever), the other factor in this is the pretty widespread idea that he's still salvageable, based on a) his college pedigree, b) an assumption that his year with Meyer set him back and c) whatever flashes of competence people want to look up on youtube.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Page 1:




It's just simple supply-and-demand. If we're being pretty generous, there are around 16 QBs who can be a big part of getting you to the playoffs or better, and that includes a bunch that are going to need a really good team and staff around them for this to happen. All the teams without one of these QBs is looking at non-playoff mediocrity at best, to their QB being actively detrimental to their ability to win at worst.


Now, while I realize Lawrence has similar stats to Jones & Minshew (or whatever), the other factor in this is the pretty widespread idea that he's still salvageable, based on a) his college pedigree, b) an assumption that his year with Meyer set him back and c) whatever flashes of competence people want to look up on youtube.

Honestly, he just looks it. Everything about him from size to arm strength to his ability to hit tight holes. His talents makes him look like he should be an S-tier quarterback. I can see how a team can believe he is going to put it together.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

whatever flashes of competence people want to look up on youtube.

Which fits what I said, he has to take a major leap to justify the deal.

They believe he will.

If he doesn't, they'll end up with a new GM.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

If he doesn't, they'll end up with a new GM.

Think you forgot their GM was Trent (cousin) Baalke. It's going to take a lot more than that to get him fired.

Lawrence was pretty good last year until the injuries started piling up. I think he also leads the NFL in drop rate by his receivers over the past 3 years and led the NFL in EPA lost due to dropped passes last year. He still has too many fumbles and interceptions that are his fault, but I think he can reduce those.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Which fits what I said, he has to take a major leap to justify the deal.

They believe he will.

If he doesn't, they'll end up with a new GM.

I'm curious how the deal is structured. Is it one of those where most of the guaranteed money is in the first 3 years? If so, that isn't that bad considering he was going to have a couple years of rope anyway.

There's also a $30 million jump in the salary cap next season and I think it's projected go up maybe another $20 million in 2025. So maybe it's just a contract that won't look too bad in the later years if it keeps increasing.

I don't know. It's such a weird spot for teams who have average QBs with potential because it's so hard to go back to the drawing board at that position. You almost have to pay it and pray they pan out.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Kamara holding out.

Smart move by him. He gets ~$10 million base this year, and then he's a pretty obvious cut next year. And RBs age poorly--and older RBs get paid with that in mind.

And the coaching staff is in win-now mode to keep their jobs.

So this is his last and best chance to try and squeeze a bit more money out of the team.

I sort of get it but also with how little running backs are getting, $10 million for a season is a lot of money and maybe you're better off just playing it out. I see no reason why the Saints would budge since his production has been tapering off.

[dubb93]

I know this means nothing until they start playing games but I saw breakdown the other day of NFL offensive lines in the NFL that had the Jags at 30. It’s never going to be easy to produce when your WRs are leading the league in drops and you also have the worst offensive line in the conference. Maybe they should just go ahead and fire the GM now.

[RainMaker]

Bill Belichick, 72, is dating 24-year-old former cheerleader

[sovereignstar v2]

I have more respect for Mike Zimmer. He's a MILF kind of guy

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Bill Belichick, 72, is dating 24-year-old former cheerleader

"The two bonded over a philosophy project Hudson had been working on and exchanged contact information after landing"


Uh-huh. Sure they did.

[Ksyrup]

Pondering what is the meaning of "We're on to Cincinnati"?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Bill Belichick, 72, is dating 24-year-old former cheerleader

Just as long as its consensual, both adults, he's not married, more power to him.

One thing I've learn is ... life is short.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Bill Belichick, 72, is dating 24-year-old former cheerleader

insert "Bellichek ia deflating" joke

[JonInMiddleGA]

Y'all can Google the details or whatever, but just damn.

Either Matthew Stafford is married to one incredibly dumb sportswife OR he's married to one really cruelly twisted sportswife.

TLDR version for those who haven't seen it: she goes on some podcast and tells the world she slept with his backup in college in order to make him jealous.

Not EVERYTHING you've ever done needs to be broadcast to the world. And especially not everything you've done should be broadcast to the world when you've got four daughters under the age of ten who will now get to deal with your apparently desperate need for attention.

I don't use "the c-word" real often here I don't believe, but it sure feels suitable for this occasion.

Good grief.

[GrantDawg]

Yeah, that's a wow.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Honolulu_Blue]

Yeah, Lions fans are very familiar with his wife, Kelly Stafford. She’s been saying stupid shit for years. She’s very annoying. She needs to make everything about her. Following the playoff game last year she claimed people were booing her kids, which, of course, did not happen.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Yeah, Lions fans are very familiar with his wife, Kelly Stafford. She’s been saying stupid shit for years. She’s very annoying. She needs to make everything about her. Following the playoff game last year she claimed people were booing her kids, which, of course, did not happen.

lolololol

[GrantDawg]

Fourth round draft pick for the Vikings Khyree Jackson, was killed in car accident today. He was passenger in car that was hit by another vehicle at high speed. He was one of three who died. Just tragic.

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[albionmoonlight]

This season will be the first NFL season without Curly Lambeau, Tom Landry, or Bill Belichick coaching at some level.

Not the first season since . . .

The first season. Ever.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The Lions signed LT Taylor Decker to a 3 year extension today. So far this off-season, the Lions have locked up Goff, St, Brown, Sewell and now Decker.

There was an article today in The Athletic comparing Detroit's approach - being aggressive and signing their cornerstone players early - and Dallas' approach - waiting to the bitter end to sign their cornerstone guys Prescott, Lamb and Parsons, all of who remain unsigned.

Some day it will no longer feel weird when the Lions are praised and held up as an example of doing things the right way... But today is not that day!

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

The Lions signed LT Taylor Decker to a 3 year extension today. So far this off-season, the Lions have locked up Goff, St, Brown, Sewell and now Decker.

There was an article today in The Athletic comparing Detroit's approach - being aggressive and signing their cornerstone players early - and Dallas' approach - waiting to the bitter end to sign their cornerstone guys Prescott, Lamb and Parsons, all of who remain unsigned.

Some day it will no longer feel weird when the Lions are praised and held up as an example of doing things the right way... But today is not that day!

Really couldn't be happier for you. It does feel so good when a long battered team that you suffered as a fan of for so long becomes a contender.

[CrimsonFox]

Russell Wilson hurt already lol poor guy

[henry296]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Russell Wilson hurt already lol poor guy

It was the other R. Wilson (Roman) who hurt his ankle. Russ is back at practice.

[sovereignstar v2]

All R. Wilsons are the same to Crimson Fox

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

All R. Wilsons are the same to Crimson Fox

I'm a wilsonist


seriously tho. news said he was returning to practie after a calf injury. Which makes me think he'll struggle with that all year

[thesloppy]

Russell was such a trip last year. On paper his numbers were actually legit good. His 2023 numbers in several key categories were comparable or better than the now highest paid player in the history of the league, Jordan Love (as long as you entirely ignore total yards and sacks taken, lol). Yet anytime you actually saw him play he looked horrible.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This season will be the first NFL season without Curly Lambeau, Tom Landry, or Bill Belichick coaching at some level.

Not the first season since . . .

The first season. Ever.

I've created a coach file in FOF9 for my universe set in 1966. It includes everyone who was on a staff (according to pro football reference) up to 1976, so that the next few years have a chance to have some future coaches in it. Belichick is in the file since he was an assistant with the Lions in 1976. When the universe starts in 1966, he's 14 years old and unemployed, but if he's good, someone will hire him before he turns 18.

[thesloppy]

I didn't even realize there was a game on tonight. That Hall of Fame game barely even qualifies as preseason football though.

[stevew]

I drove home through what I’m assuming was the remnants of that rain system that shut the game down. Def not fun.

[Ksyrup]

I tuned in just to watch a couple of kickoffs. Definitely the most interesting point of the night - not that the kickoffs themselves ended up being interesting, but all of the strategy and "how's this going to look?" stuff that it generates for fans (and teams, I assume). It basically looked like a regular running play if you eliminated the QB and stretched it out over 30 yards.

[albionmoonlight]

I imagine that most teams are saving their interesting kickoff variations for the regular season.

I think it will be awesome if the first 4-5 weeks are lots of moves and counter moves as teams start showing their hands.

[flere-imsaho]

I've posted it here before, but I think once they get settled in, the new KO format is going to be a lot more consistently exciting.

[CrimsonFox]

Bengals being Bengals

Smooth Zac
WR Charlie Jones tore something in his leg in the first practice with their brand new turf.

[JPhillips]

Crazy that last night was the first time Joe Burrow has played in the pre-season.

[albionmoonlight]

Saints fans are so ready to move on from Derek Carr. Spencer Rattler looked OK in his preseason debut, so all the fans have decided he’s the next Patrick Mahomes and are already anticipating booing Carr’s first incompletion and screaming for Rattler to come in.

[Atocep]

Good god, Mike Hall Jr probably won't be playing football this season.

Browns DT Mike Hall Jr. charged with domestic violence - ESPN

[bhlloy]

You mean he won’t be playing four games next season in all likelihood, if the charges don’t get dropped and the NFL gets around to it by then?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Saints fans are so ready to move on from Derek Carr. Spencer Rattler looked OK in his preseason debut, so all the fans have decided he’s the next Patrick Mahomes and are already anticipating booing Carr’s first incompletion and screaming for Rattler to come in.

w-w-w-what?

[Ksyrup]

Seems like the news in Minnesota changed quickly. Yesterday morning, I read that JJ McCarthy had knee soreness and was expected to get reps with the #1 team this weekend. Then like 2 hours later, it's reported he has an MCL injury and is getting surgery. Probably the best thing for him to be forced to sit and learn rather than tempt the team to give him the job too early (given that Darnold is likely the #1 for a brief period of time).

[Ksyrup]

Dola.

Any Lions fans have info on the extent of Jahmyr Gibbs' hamstring injury? Seems pretty quiet. Almost too quiet.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Seems like the news in Minnesota changed quickly. Yesterday morning, I read that JJ McCarthy had knee soreness and was expected to get reps with the #1 team this weekend. Then like 2 hours later, it's reported he has an MCL injury and is getting surgery. Probably the best thing for him to be forced to sit and learn rather than tempt the team to give him the job too early (given that Darnold is likely the #1 for a brief period of time).

torn meniscus

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

w-w-w-what?

Yeah. Message board fans (most of them anyway) are insane. Ready to anoint the 5th round rookie because he was hyped coming out of high school.

Gonna be a long season for us, I'm afraid.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Dola.

Any Lions fans have info on the extent of Jahmyr Gibbs' hamstring injury? Seems pretty quiet. Almost too quiet.

Good news on #Lions Pro Bowl RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Sources say the hamstring injury he suffered is not considered significant, but the team will be very cautious with rest and rehab to make sure he’s 100% healthy. My understanding is he should be ready for Week 1 vs the Rams.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Seems like the news in Minnesota changed quickly. Yesterday morning, I read that JJ McCarthy had knee soreness and was expected to get reps with the #1 team this weekend. Then like 2 hours later, it's reported he has an MCL injury and is getting surgery. Probably the best thing for him to be forced to sit and learn rather than tempt the team to give him the job too early (given that Darnold is likely the #1 for a brief period of time).

some sharps out there were pushing to get a piece of Darnold to lead the NFL in passing yards at something like +13,000