Soccer Thread 2013-14

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

D looks extremely tough. Can't count out Uruguay in the slightest, especially so near their home turf.

Bad break for the US in group G, which also looks tough. I'd imagine it'll be US/Portugal for the second spot, and Ghana isn't exactly an easy fourth.

* snip *

I don't like it all, but that's what you get sometimes.

I'd put Uruguay as favourites for group D, Italy #2 and England #3. Our only hope is that we get a result against Italy in the jungle in the opener: we're playing knock-out football from the start IMO

As for group G, I think the US are in a similar position, but with a much stronger 4th team as a wild card in Ghana.

In all honesty if either England or the US qualifies for the last 16 I'll be surprised.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

It's hilarious to hear the English claiming second spot in that group already.

Suarez and Cavani vs Smalling and Cahill should be a joy to behold

If we are, I agree

[bhlloy]

Small sample size, but McManaman on US TV was loving it and I've read quite a few fans on messageboards feel the same.

That being said, McManaman always was an idiot so maybe not fair to put an entire nation on him. The litmus test will be the tabloid back pages tomorrow, as always

[Galaxy]

Looking at the group overall, what do you think the U.S. would need to do in results wise to get through?

[cartman]

Six or seven points for sure would get them through, but I don't see that happening.
Five points isn't likely either, and would need to have a +3 or 4 goal differential
Four points is the most likely outcome, and to advance, they would need a +4 to 6 goal differential.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Looking at the group overall, what do you think the U.S. would need to do in results wise to get through?

Get five points or more. Getting only four points from a draw with Portugal and a win of Ghana will make it come down to GD with Portugal and I wouldn't like USA chances there.

[MIJB#19]

So far in the 32-team World Cup format, every team in the group stage with 5+ points has advanced to the round of 16. Of teams with 4 points, 11 of 21 have advanced. Only one team advanced with 3 points (all draws), being 1998 Chile. Point being, technicalities aside, to advance to the next round, you can overcome at most one loss and need to win at least one.

Interestingly, of those teams with 4 points, 12 of 21 actually won the first game and 8 of those 12 got through to the second round. The risk of needing the last one to win to get to 4 points has turned out to be a common situation where the two teams in the other game can divide the first two places, because one team already won the group and tanks or because they both advance with a draw.

Interestingly, only 4 teams have managed to get into the knockout stages after losing their opening game (in the 32-team format), 3 of those won their last two games and only one of them still won their group (Spain 2010).

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by rowech

Get five points or more. Getting only four points from a draw with Portugal and a win of Ghana will make it come down to GD with Portugal and I wouldn't like USA chances there.

5pts would be amazing.

Just based on gut, total round numbers, today I'd give us:

5% chance at 5pts
40% chance at 4pts
45% chance at 3pts (I think we finally beat Ghana)
10% chance at 0pts

[cartman]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

So far in the 32-team World Cup format, every team in the group stage with 5+ points has advanced to the round of 16.

Watch this year break that streak. Everyone beats Ghana, and then ties each other. Three teams with 5 points. One team gets left out. Not that it is likely, but that is why Mr. Murphy has his laws.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by cartman

Watch this year break that streak. Everyone beats Ghana, and then ties each other. Three teams with 5 points. One team gets left out. Not that it is likely, but that is why Mr. Murphy has his laws.

It happened at that silly Euro2004 tournament, when Italy beat Bulgaria in the last game, only to find out Denmark and Sweden had completed the eliminating 2-2 draw to make it 5 points each.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by cartman

Six or seven points for sure would get them through, but I don't see that happening.
Five points isn't likely either, and would need to have a +3 or 4 goal differential
Four points is the most likely outcome, and to advance, they would need a +4 to 6 goal differential.

Top 2 teams of 4 advance, and there's no more comparing vs. other groups. Who the hell pulls off a +4 or more GD on 4-5 points without North Korea or Tahiti in their group? We need 5+ points or 4 and luck.

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

5pts would be amazing.

Just based on gut, total round numbers, today I'd give us:

5% chance at 5pts
40% chance at 4pts
45% chance at 3pts (I think we finally beat Ghana)
10% chance at 0pts

And 0% chance at 6 points? You really think it's more likely we win 1 and tie 2 than win 2 and lose 1?

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Top 2 teams of 4 advance, and there's no more comparing vs. other groups. Who the hell pulls off a +4 or more GD on 4-5 points without North Korea or Tahiti in their group? We need 5+ points or 4 and luck.

That's the spirit!

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

That's the spirit!

I'm on board for 7 or 9, but I feel like people won't even consider that as a possibility.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I'm on board for 7 or 9, but I feel like people won't even consider that as a possibility.

I mean, what's done is done, the draw is as it is. First order of business for the USA is to beat Ghana. Anything else is irrelevant until after that game.
And from there on, the goal is to get enough points to reach the second round.

[Desnudo]

Beating Ghana is by no means guaranteed. Although I feel we have a better shot with Klinnsman. He's more likely to get the US an outlier result than Bradley was.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by AlexB

In all honesty if either England or the US qualifies for the last 16 I'll be surprised.

+1 - England have at best a 50% chance of qualifying if they're on their best form* ... the US, I think have a slightly lesser chance but slightly offset by some of their players being more used to warmer temperatures.

Its also worth noting that preparation or lack of it will be a big factor involved in this World Cup because of the temperatures, as such its entirely likely that there WILL be upsets in this tournament ... so both teams do still have a chance and its all to play for

*Simply put they 'can' beat all the teams in their group - but equally they can also be beaten by most of them ...

[sovereignstar v2]

Come on David Moyes.......

[Marc Vaughan]

THIS is why I hate fantasy football - I called Newcastle beating Utd so left two Newcastle players in my lineup ... they duly win, my reward 3 points because neither player was involved in the goal ... bah humbug.

PS - I really hope Moyes keeps his job, he'll grow into it if he's given time to make the team his own ...

[sovereignstar v2]

I hope he keeps his job too. No one class will want to play for him and they'll become the new Arsenal, playing for a 4th place trophy.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

I hope he keeps his job too. No one class will want to play for him and they'll become the new Arsenal, playing for a 4th place trophy.

Heh thats pretty much what my wife (a City supporter) is hoping for - I personally think he's going to get them playing to his preferred style and make a really good team if he's given the time to do so ... at the moment he's caught between some young untested players and some who aren't quite as good as they used to be ...

PS - Did NOT call the Stoke vs Chelsea match, amazing result - I was expecting Chelsea to lose Mourinho's home record soon, but to lose against Stoke in a goalfest?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Couple of hours until the MLS Cup. Go Sporting!!!!!!!

[kingfc22]

A nice set of results today.

[ColtCrazy]

Back to Back wins for Palace is fueling hope to stay afloat!! Of course, this means they'll fall apart in the end, but for now…hope.

[Young Drachma]

Full house in Kansas City despite the weather for today's MLS Cup Final. League has come a long way. Real Salt Lake is still a stupid name.

[ISiddiqui]

Well, it isn't like KC has had great names... Wiz, Sporting KC? MLS has some really bad team names (of course Red Bull is the worst..)

[bhlloy]

Yeah, how in the hell is "Real" Salt Lake any worse than "Sporting" KC? Both are dumb attempts to conjur up images of European sports powerhouses

[kingfc22]

This KC keeper is atrocious. Is he their normal #1?

[ISiddiqui]

Not only is he their normal, he's was the MLS Goalkeeper of the Year last season (2012)

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Not only is he their normal, he's was the MLS Goalkeeper of the Year last season (2012)

That's absurd. His reflexes and reaction time are non-existent.

[SirFozzie]

Wow. If you told me that Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd would only take one of nine points today.. I would have laughed.

[kingfc22]

KC better hope this doesn't go to PK's. No way that keeper is stopping anything in a shoot out.

[PilotMan]

Drama.....

[PilotMan]

I think this is the longest shootout I've ever seen.

[Young Drachma]

9th round. Goodness gracious.

[kingfc22]

This might come down to keeper vs keeper.

[Young Drachma]

Ok, this is just getting ridiculous. 10th round.

[Young Drachma]

I think RSL misses here and KC takes it. That's my prediction.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

I think RSL misses here and KC takes it. That's my prediction.

Winner

[PilotMan]

You know it's amazing that you can read the confidence on the players faces and body language when they step up.

[DaddyTorgo]

The fact that the rule is that this goes to shootout and not just continuous Sudden Death until someone scores is stupid.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

The fact that the rule is that this goes to shootout and not just continuous Sudden Death until someone scores is stupid.

Agreed. But it's America and it's not surprising. I mean, to be fair college football overtime is similarly ridiculous. At some point, getting frost bite probably isn't worth it.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

The fact that the rule is that this goes to shootout and not just continuous Sudden Death until someone scores is stupid.

FA Cup does the same. All Cup Finals now end in PK's.. no replays or endless sudden death

[cartman]

They used to do a coin toss or draw straws instead of having a shootout.

[bhlloy]

Another 5 minutes nobody would be able to run anyway in that cold. There's got to be a limit on how long 11 players + 3 subs can play for. Maybe if you allowed free subs after the 120 it could work (a la Hockey) but if it's just most of the 11 that have been on the field the whole game, it's not going to be much of a game.

Interestingly, FA cup games used to go to infinite replays, wasn't that uncommon to play 3/4 times before getting the result which really made the scheduling interesting.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by cartman

They used to do a coin toss or draw straws instead of having a shootout.

ouch.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

FA Cup does the same. All Cup Finals now end in PK's.. no replays or endless sudden death

Yeah - but this isn't a cup final, it's the league championship.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Yeah - but this isn't a cup final, it's the league championship.

Decided in a playoff/knockout style. It's a league feeding into a Cup

Otherwise we'd just give it to the Supporter's Shield holder.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Decided in a playoff/knockout style. It's a league feeding into a Cup

Otherwise we'd just give it to the Supporter's Shield holder.

Valid point.

Then again - I suppose we/I really should just view the Supporter's Shield holder as the "true champion" and say "FU" to the stupid attempt to "Americanize" it.

[SirFozzie]

Nah, without anything real to play for (For example 35% of the league goes to europe if all league spots, another 15% are relegated, plus all the folks fighting for the various spots), the league would be dull.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Valid point.

Then again - I suppose we/I really should just view the Supporter's Shield holder as the "true champion" and say "FU" to the stupid attempt to "Americanize" it.

That'd be a really bad idea. MLS needs exposure. I think doing a final in December during NBA/NHL/College Football season is a bigger sin than having playoffs.

Besides, why leave revenue on the table in the interest of purity or replace the title with a "cup" that no one cares about and isn't the championship. That won't fly here. Maybe in 100 years when soccer can somehow elevate past baseball or something one of the three major sports in the US.

But Supporters Shield is a fine Presidents Trophy replicant that came from the fans and got adopted by the league.