WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[MikeVic]

I'm in group 2 so I'll be scanning Barkeep I guess.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I've said so throughout the game, yes.

Can I hear why?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Dude, we already settled that.

Yup, and your response is pretty much late, too. So I guess we're even.

[Passacaglia]

Sorry to see you go, Lathum. I think your arguing did help us today, though -- even if the end result was the same, a close vote is better than a runaway.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yup, and your response is pretty much late, too. So I guess we're even.

I don't think anyone told you we settled it yet.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't think anyone told you we settled it yet.

Ha! I figured it out on my own (belatedly).

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Can I hear why?

Because it totally ruins the game if the scans are just 'villager' no matter what. We've been told that we have a certain fixed percentage of accuracy in our scans, and if that's not true for one of the nights, then this whole game is bullshit.

[oliegirl]

I'm in group 3, which is supposed to scan CR, but I scanned him last night...and I don't see the point in scanning the same person 2 nights in a row, so I've submitted a scan on someone else. If anyone has a major problem with this, speak in the next 5 minutes or forever hold your peace...

[nfg22]

So after me who are the top suspects? Im thinking Pass, Sal, maybe Cheif, and Mauboy1. None of these hav any evidence other than my gut feeling.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Because it totally ruins the game if the scans are just 'villager' no matter what. We've been told that we have a certain fixed percentage of accuracy in our scans, and if that's not true for one of the nights, then this whole game is bullshit.

So you buy that we hit the lottery then on our N0 scans? That we hit the 1 in a million shot (or thereabouts) that 13 of us all got villager (excluding wolves and Teacher's Pet/Fool), with aproximately 50% accuracy scanning and 25% of us wolves?

[Passacaglia]

I still like the idea of people scanning the same person they scanned last night -- and now we know we're not being duped by wolves with that thought, since Lathum was good, and he came up with it. I would excuse Mr. Wednesday and Chief Rum if they want to -- if they think their N0 scans are worthwhile.

[claphamsa]

maubouy?
thats kinda out of nowhere...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I'm in group 3, which is supposed to scan CR, but I scanned him last night...and I don't see the point in scanning the same person 2 nights in a row, so I've submitted a scan on someone else. If anyone has a major problem with this, speak in the next 5 minutes or forever hold your peace...

I do! Well, no, don't care either way.

Actually, if someone is around, might be good to switch with someone in another group in the same sorta situation.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I still like the idea of people scanning the same person they scanned last night -- and now we know we're not being duped by wolves with that thought, since Lathum was good, and he came up with it. I would excuse Mr. Wednesday and Chief Rum if they want to -- if they think their N0 scans are worthwhile.

Moot for me anyway. Even if I am certain the N0 scans are worthless, I have it on good authority Lathum is indeed a student.

[st.cronin]

Olie, I'm scanning CR because I'm a maverick. I have no idea who I'm supposed to scan, so you can scan them instead, if you can figure that out.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

So you buy that we hit the lottery then on our N0 scans? That we hit the 1 in a million shot (or thereabouts) that 13 of us all got villager (excluding wolves and Teacher's Pet/Fool), with aproximately 50% accuracy scanning and 25% of us wolves?

It does seem fishy, but I don't have anything better to believe.

[oliegirl]

I'm scanning DC...so if someone from group 4 wants to scan you instead, that would even out the #'s, otherwise there will just be an extra scan on DC.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

It does seem fishy, but I don't have anything better to believe.

Well, personally, I think that very fact is rather compelling and is the best to believe until proven otherwise.

That said, I can lead a horse (even a super smart one) to water...

TETO. I just hope we don't lynch anyone (or ignore lynching anyone) based mostly on N0 scan evidence

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I still like the idea of people scanning the same person they scanned last night -- and now we know we're not being duped by wolves with that thought, since Lathum was good, and he came up with it. I would excuse Mr. Wednesday and Chief Rum if they want to -- if they think their N0 scans are worthwhile.

Actually, looking at it from my own point of view, I'd rather not scan the same person as yesterday -- I don't really want to find out if I'm close to 50%.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, personally, I think that very fact is rather compelling and is the best to believe until proven otherwise.

That said, I can lead a horse (even a super smart one) to water...

TETO. I just hope we don't lynch anyone (or ignore lynching anyone) based mostly on N0 scan evidence

People are free to take N0 results out of whatever info I provide.

[Chief Rum]

Technically, unless you're the Fool or the Teacher's Pet, you are about 95% likely to be within 18% of 50%, based on the numbers I crunched. And you have a better than average chance of being within 12% of 50%.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, personally, I think that very fact is rather compelling and is the best to believe until proven otherwise.

That said, I can lead a horse (even a super smart one) to water...

TETO. I just hope we don't lynch anyone (or ignore lynching anyone) based mostly on N0 scan evidence

Anyway, what do you want to believe? That path chose a person randomly for each person to scan, and they came up villager, no matter what? It's just so dumb (sorry, path, if that's how it actually happened ).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

People are free to take N0 results out of whatever info I provide.

Hmm, you know what I find odd? The other night, you said you were good with stats and would try to come up with something. You never ended up following up on that (I can certainly understand that, it was a ton of work). But I would think that if you're good with stats (or interested enough to be good with stats), you would be inclined to trust such a strong bias toward a particularly obvious answer (that the N0 scans were not random at all).

Not saying anything really, I just find that curious.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm, you know what I find odd? The other night, you said you were good with stats and would try to come up with something. You never ended up following up on that (I can certainly understand that, it was a ton of work). But I would think that if you're good with stats (or interested enough to be good with stats), you would be inclined to trust such a strong bias toward a particularly obvious answer (that the N0 scans were not random at all).

Not saying anything really, I just find that curious.

I don't doubt that the probablity of getting these results is very small. Have you not read my reasoning in the last few posts?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Anyway, what do you want to believe? That path chose a person randomly for each person to scan, and they came up villager, no matter what? It's just so dumb (sorry, path, if that's how it actually happened ).

We don't have any information regarding path's method of selecting who scanned whom (and path has been adamant we won't get any). So I can't offer up any opinions about that.

But do I think path might have started us off with pointless N0 scans, the accuracy of which has absolutely nothing to do with a roll of the dice, in order to mislead us at the start? Yeah, I can buy that. There have been trickier twists performed by GMs.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't doubt that the probablity of getting these results is very small. Have you not read my reasoning in the last few posts?

I have been responding to them, post by post. You saw that, right?

[Pumpy Tudors]

I'm having a hard time following all the talk about the scans. Certainly, somebody has brought up the possibility that the wolves are just lying about their scans, right? The wolves aren't going to name each other, so just to throw the students off, they'll say that they scanned somebody as a student, even if they didn't. Rather than assume that the N0 scans are faulty, how about we assume that the wolves are confusing us?

I have no idea who I'm supposed to be scanning, and I don't know if the group scanning is really helping anyway. Personally, I want to scan nfg22 again, because I want to see if he comes up as a wolf this time too. I'll hold off for a little while to see if anyone can convince me to scan somebody else. Right now, I have no idea. It seems that we're just getting more hard feelings than information here, and that ain't right.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

I'm having a hard time following all the talk about the scans. Certainly, somebody has brought up the possibility that the wolves are just lying about their scans, right? The wolves aren't going to name each other, so just to throw the students off, they'll say that they scanned somebody as a student, even if they didn't. Rather than assume that the N0 scans are faulty, how about we assume that the wolves are confusing us?

So your supposition is that the wolves are the only ones who received wolf scans and all of them lied. The odds of wolves getting wolf scans only and villagers getting villager scans only is even worse than all of us getting villager scans.

I have been taking into consideration the presence of the wolves (assumed 5) and the outliers of the Teacher's Pet and Fool, and only going up to 13 villagers in my statistical study of N0 (we had 20 N0 scan reveals, so remove 7 to get 13). Can't remove the wolf element entirely, of course, without more information (in which case the game would be over), but it would be practically impossible for the wolves to engineer the N0 scan results unless they have some unknown game mechanic that would allow it.

In which case, we're back to what I have been arguing all along: ignore the N0 scans.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

So your supposition is that the wolves are the only ones who received wolf scans and all of them lied. The odds of wolves getting wolf scans only and villagers getting villager scans only is even worse than all of us getting villager scans.

No, I guess I can't reasonably make that assumption. Point taken.

[st.cronin]

I tend to agree with CR, that at the very least the rules were different on n-0. I think also this was intended to be obvious.

[RendeR]

Here's my take on the N-0 scans:

path selected the targets at random, coming up with a few duplicates, some of those results were right (villagers scanned as villagers) and some of them came up wrong (wolves came up villagers). its a one sided way to look at it, but I think that at least explains why al the responses were villager.

or am I daft?

[nfg22]

We might lose this game guys...

[Chief Rum]

Really, my main point is, whatever the reason for the N0 scans coming up the way they did, they did NOT come up via the rolls path has put in his rules. Maybe it's a game mechanic for someone, maybe path is screwing with us, maybe path is actually using a randomizing program for checking scans that got stuck on some bad random feed, I don't know.

The only thing I know is, when it comes to using the N0 scans in attempting to determine our various rates of accuracy, they are completely and utterly worthless.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I tend to agree with CR, that at the very least the rules were different on n-0. I think also this was intended to be obvious.

Yup, st.cronin said it much more simply. My point, stated more succinctly.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Here's my take on the N-0 scans:

path selected the targets at random, coming up with a few duplicates, some of those results were right (villagers scanned as villagers) and some of them came up wrong (wolves came up villagers). its a one sided way to look at it, but I think that at least explains why al the responses were villager.

or am I daft?

This is the exact thing we are saying is wrong.

[nfg22]

Whether the rules were different for N0 or it was an anomaly, it does not help us one bit. Anomalies are always thrown out.

[Chief Rum]

Prediction: There will be a mix of scans on me tonight, and probably one or two (based on pure percentages) are going to come up wolf.

The wolves will be itching to lead you all down the wrong path again and lynch me tomorrow. A wolf will put in an early vote. Maybe even the first vote, but more likely the second, to try to get the ball rolling. One or two more wolves will also vote for me, probably voicing some suspicion, but not actually voting for me until there is a clear runaway or when the inevitable "runaway counter-vote" starts to build up. That way, they can claim they were as certain as anyone else of my guilt, but merely got there late to the game.

Another wolf will probably be in the counter-vote, also for protection down the line (this is assuming the runaway counter-vote target is also a villager; might be nfg22, I would guess). And another wolf (the last) will toss his.her vote out at a random third party who has received a vote from elsewhere.

I don't have an issue being the target, and fully expect to be lynched. I am hoping you all will be smarter than that, but I can't expect it. And I won't be around tomorrow, as I work both jobs. I encourage you all to not consider that at all. I am defending myself just fine, and if you're not satisfied with what I say tonight, nothing I say tomorrow will be any better. So vote free of worry that I am not "there to defend myself".

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by nfg22

We might lose this game guys...

Why would we lose this game after just three villagers dead? We've still got our seer(s) abilities to work with. I think we'll be fine once it all gets sorted out.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Why would we lose this game after just three villagers dead? We've still got our seer(s) abilities to work with. I think we'll be fine once it all gets sorted out.

Maybe because im a wolf and you villagers are doing so well...

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Maybe because im a wolf and you villagers are doing so well...

exibit #1 on how a n00b can play a wolf to survive... mau mastered this...... pigfecker that he is!

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by nfg22

This is the exact thing we are saying is wrong.

Oh. SO basically, even if this possible, albeit extraordinary way of things going was true, we're going to ignore it anyway because it skews everything.

Gotcha!

[nfg22]

Claph...its late im tired and messing around. Think what you want. It will work out in the end. Just wait till my scans come up clean

[path12]

Passacaglia was thinking about what to change his name to after graduation, as was the tradition. Passacaligula...........Pass12...........Bill......... He stopped suddenly. Did he hear something in the hall? His first instinct was to hide in the corner, but then remembered an obscure study that postulated to always charge ahead and double down until you win and come out on top. So he strode to the door and peeked into the hall. Everything seemed clear to the left, as he turned to the right the wolf shot his razor sharp claws straight into and through his chest, the beating heart dripping from the hand sticking out of his back.

"Damn. I wanted to get him from the other side."

PASSACAGLIA, A STUDENT, HAS BEEN KILLED. DAY 3 IS UNDERWAY, DEADLINE IS 9PM EST WEDNESDAY.

Individual PM's are going out now.

[nfg22]

wow...didnt see that one coming...

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by nfg22

wow...didnt see that one coming...

To the point that I'm now so pissed off since I put in a scan for him.

I was predicting something like this would happen with one of the groups that I decided to switch it up last minute and it happened to me anyways. Sorry again, guys. Two nights in a row with no scan. ****!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Chief Rum comes up student for me.

[Chief Rum]

nfg22 comes up a wolf to me.

I normally wouldn't say there is enough for me to go on, but as the likely lynch target tomorrow, and I would guess ngf22 the likely other candidate, I will have to go with him in a pre-emptive, self-presevration vote (sorry, nfg).

VOTE NFG22

[Chief Rum]

As I said, I will be out all day tomorrow, so I guess I'll see when I return if I am still alive. I have said my peace, so make of it what you will. I haven't yet made a move I regret in this game, but I do hope you will see I am a student (without killing me, that is).

But even if you do choose to kill me, I hope my lynch will at least provide the students with some good data points to work with.

I am putting in a conditional scan order for tomorrow night in case I live, since I probably won't be back before the night deadline, so I won't be able to participate in any grouping efforts.

Good luck!

[Barkeep49]

nfg came up as a wolf for me as well.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

To the point that I'm now so pissed off since I put in a scan for him.

I was predicting something like this would happen with one of the groups that I decided to switch it up last minute and it happened to me anyways. Sorry again, guys. Two nights in a row with no scan. ****!

huh?

pass was not one of the group designated targets....why on earth would you have predicted he would be killed?