The 2024 Presidential Nomination Thread

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

RM, you really look like you are hunting for bad stuff to say about Biden, Scalia was voted in 98-0. It was a different more bipartisan time then, and weren't expecting him to be SO conservative in his rulings, O'Connor got 99 votes to confirm.

I agree, that's why I think it's bad to have someone from that time in charge. Republicans are not doing the old bipartisan stuff from when Biden was in the Senate. They don't care about blue slips, they don't care about the filibuster, they certainly don't give a shit what Chuck Schumer thinks about their judicial nominees in New York.

So if one side is "sticking with the norms", they're playing with one hand tied behind their back. That shows they're either naive/dumb or just don't give a shit.

And this goes beyond Biden. It's the old guard of Democrat leadership. Remember this insane statement by Pelosi last year?

Access to this page has been denied

[RainMaker]

Not going well in Michigan.

After days of meetings with disaffected Democrats in Michigan, Representative Ro Khanna of California said that President Biden cannot win the state without changes to his Middle East policy.

— Katrina vandenHeuvel (@KatrinaNation) February 27, 2024

[JPhillips]

Maybe, but Khanna is hardly neutral here.

[bronconick]

They're pushing to get votes for "Uncommitted" in tomorrow's primary. I don't know how hard they're trying, though. One said they hoped to get about 10k as a nod to Trump's 2016 win, but the 2020 Dem primary had 19k uncommitted. Another was hoping for 15%, which would actually be a more noticeable target.

More than 1 million people voted in each of the last two Democratic primaries in Michigan, so a 15% goal would be at least 150,000 people while 10,000 votes would be 1%.

[RainMaker]

I don't know if the uncommitted thing matters tomorrow. It's more just a protest vote. Michigan is looking like it might be the pivotal state in November, so I do think voters know the kind of power they will be able to wield.

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Maybe, but Khanna is hardly neutral here.

In what way?

[Lathum]

This is what I am talking about.

According to the NYT, though Biden is leading his nearest opponent by +76% in the Michigan primary he “faced opposition.” Meanwhile, Trump is leading by +35% but “easily beat” his opponent.

The NYT bias in covering this election is just impossible to ignore, at this point. pic.twitter.com/ndbVnloyXe

— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) February 28, 2024

[Ghost Econ]

It's going to be so predictable when she inevitably endorses Trump.

Nikki Haley: America Is Committing “Suicide” by Voting for Trump | Vanity Fair

Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, Haley said that while her opponent may be running for reelection “to pay his legal fees and get out of some sort of legal peril,” the idea of making him the party’s nominee “is like suicide for our country.” Seemingly making a Titanic reference, in which America is the boat and Trump is the iceberg, she also told the outlet: “You have to see the hole in the ship. And if you don’t see the hole in the ship, we’re all going to go down.”

[JPhillips]

Looks like the uncommitted vote in MI is going to end up just a couple of points higher than it did in 2012.

And Dean finished fourth in a three person race.

[albionmoonlight]

My guess is that if she does not drop out after Super Tuesday, the RNC will change the rules to pretty much award the rest of the delegates to Trump.

Or, possibly, there will be some backroom deal where she is told that if she drops out and he does become incapacitated before the convention, then she will be the nominee.

The problem, though, is I don't even know who would make that deal from the RNC side. Trump has so successfully turned the RNC into the fundraising arm of MAGA, that I don't know if there really in an RNC outside of Trump anymore.

[Lathum]

The RNC for all intents and purposes doesn't exist. Their only purpose is the pay his legal bills at this point.

There is zero chance any down ballot candidates see a dime from them.

[Brian Swartz]

The alternative for Haley is becoming another Kasich, who ... makes occasional appearances on MSNBC?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

The alternative for Haley is becoming another Kasich, who ... makes occasional appearances on MSNBC?

She has really painted herself into a corner. Once MAGA turns on you they don't take you back. Her best bet is continue bashing them, hope Biden wins in 2024, has a disastrous administration and she gets the non maga and independents in 2028.

[albionmoonlight]

Haley has Bill Clinton levels of does-not-believe-anything and will-say-whatever-people-want-to-hear. So I wouldn't put any future positions outside of the realm of possibility for her.

But I agree that her best bet is to stay anti-MAGA GOP and hope that's enough in 2028.

[QuikSand]

Honestly, the real pivot ahead in American politics will be the day Trump dies (or something practically equivalent) and then we find out if this "movement" among the faithful will continue behind one leader, many leaders, or not really at all.

We see plenty of people who are largely content to bootlick for now but hope to become "the next MAGA leader." It's not clear that any among them have the requisite charisma and... chutzpah?... to actually fill those bone-spur-friendly shoes.

But it's that pivot when someone well-positioned to be a non-MAGA or even anti-MAGA GOP leader can really figure out whether there's a lane at all for them. But clearly not until then. The former legitimate party is lost for now.

[Ksyrup]

Not sure where this goes but Mitch McConnell is stepping down in November.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and when you control the courts you can get away with a lot.

like I said...

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

My guess is that if she does not drop out after Super Tuesday, the RNC will change the rules to pretty much award the rest of the delegates to Trump.

Or, possibly, there will be some backroom deal where she is told that if she drops out and he does become incapacitated before the convention, then she will be the nominee.

The problem, though, is I don't even know who would make that deal from the RNC side. Trump has so successfully turned the RNC into the fundraising arm of MAGA, that I don't know if there really in an RNC outside of Trump anymore.

Republican primaries are basically winner take all in a 2 person race by mid-March so they wouldn't have to change the rules.

[Atocep]

Trump is really getting bothered by his age and mistakes getting pointed out. Especially by Biden. As I said here before, if you really want to get to him you have to needle him on things like his age, mistakes, intelligence, etc. That is the shit that bothers him. That's the stuff that will have him sounding more and more unhinged.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Trump is really getting bothered by his age and mistakes getting pointed out. Especially by Biden. As I said here before, if you really want to get to him you have to needle him on things like his age, mistakes, intelligence, etc. That is the shit that bothers him. That's the stuff that will have him sounding more and more unhinged.

Not saying it shouldn't be done, of course it should. Maybe he'll say something crazier than he already has, but...

The trouble is even if Trump got to a "Did you order the code red" situation and responded with "your goddamned right I did", there will be no consequences, it won't mean a thing. To the voters or to the courts.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Not saying it shouldn't be done, of course it should. Maybe he'll say something crazier than he already has, but...

The trouble is even if Trump got to a "Did you order the code red" situation and responded with "your goddamned right I did", there will be no consequences, it won't mean a thing. To the voters or to the courts.

It won't matter for his supporters, but the more Trump is in the media making unhinged responses to this stuff the more others are reminded of how awful he is. It goes against how a normal candidacy works, but the more Trump is in the media the more it hurts him with everyone except his base. Media trying to mostly ignore him and his rallies post presidency probably helped him.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It won't matter for his supporters, but the more Trump is in the media making unhinged responses to this stuff the more others are reminded of how awful he is. It goes against how a normal candidacy works, but the more Trump is in the media the more it hurts him with everyone except his base. Media trying to mostly ignore him and his rallies post presidency probably helped him.

I'd like to think you're right. Maybe once the nominations are done, the race actually starts, and it becomes harder to not have him be seen/heard there will be enough of an affect to do him damage. Perhaps those that think Joe is slipping cognitively will think a deranged Trump is as bad or worse? I hope so.

[albionmoonlight]

https://www.threads.net/@steve_vlade...c4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

[GrantDawg]

It can't be the immunity case because they haven't even had arguments. This will most likely be the Colorado ballot opinion. Almost certainly going Trump's way, just what will be the reasoning is the question.

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[Atocep]

So last night Trump, again, confused Obama for Biden, spit out some gibberish as his brain appeared to completely lock up, and had a medical emergency in his crowd.

Just a typical Trump rally at this point.

Trump short circuits again LOL pic.twitter.com/OqfJpZR2i8

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 2, 2024

[molson]

I'm for one relieved that FINALLY a candidate is talking about Saudi Arabian Russia.

[JPhillips]

He said that he'll cut federal education funds for any school that mandates vaccines. Make measles great again!

[NobodyHere]

At least someone is talking about cutting federal spending.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

At least someone is talking about cutting federal spending.

Except anything that results in cuts to public education would just be redirected toward vouchers so rich people pay less for private school.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Except anything that results in cuts to public education would just be redirected toward vouchers so rich people pay less for private school.

I'm here for it.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

At least someone is talking about cutting federal spending.

I'm betting when you ultimately add all the increases & decreases together in a Trump budget, the net is more deficit/debt. I sure hope I'm wrong, but my gut tells me I'm right.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Except anything that results in cuts to public education would just be redirected toward vouchers so rich people pay less for private school.

Probably true but at this point I'm willing to listen to anyone who talks about balancing the deficit.

Biden probably doesn't even remember the word "deficit" means and Trump is the "King of Debt"

I just hope I'm not here when the fiscal damn blows in this country.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'm betting when you ultimately add all the increases & decreases together in a Trump budget, the net is more deficit/debt. I sure hope I'm wrong, but my gut tells me I'm right.

That's a really low bar to cross.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

At least someone is talking about cutting federal spending.

In fairness, the changes to the IRS were made to help collect the billions in tax fraud from wealthy people. That was specifically built to reduce the deficit.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

In fairness, the changes to the IRS were made to help collect the billions in tax fraud from wealthy people. That was specifically built to reduce the deficit.

I wouldn't mind the government trying that and seeing if the tax gap drops. If the tax gap doesn't drop then the funding should be recinded.

ETA:

Or maybe I should say the tax code should be changed.

I like Ted Cruz's idea that a tax return should be able to fit on a post card.

Honestly I'm not sure what Cruz's exact plan is but IMO if You earn X then you pay Y. No deductions.

[JPhillips]

Cruz doesn't really mean that though because the people that fund him are the ones who benefit most from a complicated tax code.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I wouldn't mind the government trying that and seeing if the tax gap drops. If the tax gap doesn't drop then the funding should be recinded.

ETA:

Or maybe I should say the tax code should be changed.

I like Ted Cruz's idea that a tax return should be able to fit on a post card.

Honestly I'm not sure what Cruz's exact plan is but IMO if You earn X then you pay Y. No deductions.

When auditing people worth over $10 million, the IRS earns $13,000/hour collecting unpaid taxes. If you care about the deficit, that's an easy way to reduce it.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Cruz doesn't really mean that though because the people that fund him are the ones who benefit most from a complicated tax code.

Exactly. Also his tax plan would increase the deficit by a lot.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

When auditing people worth over $10 million, the IRS earns $13,000/hour collecting unpaid taxes. If you care about the deficit, that's an easy way to reduce it.

If that is true then I'm all for that.

[bronconick]

Nikki Haley actually won a primary.

It was the DC GOP primary where a total of 2,000 votes were cast, which is about 1,800 more Republicans that I thought lived there.

[Edward64]

Congrats Nikki.

Build on that momentum!

[albionmoonlight]

Was Haley expected to win DC?

[Ksyrup]

Feels like that just plays right into Trump's hand - of course she won in the swamp!

[Kodos]

Nothing can stop her now!

[GrantDawg]

No surprise, SCOTUS strikes down the attempt to keep Trump off the ballot. The only surprise may be that it was unanimous.

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[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

No surprise, SCOTUS strikes down the attempt to keep Trump off the ballot. The only surprise may be that it was unanimous.

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I wonder if that is an indicator they will also be unanimous on immunity, although I doubt it.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I wonder if that is an indicator they will also be unanimous on immunity, although I doubt it.

They won't. Delaying the argument until the last possible day gave the game away.

They will deny immunity, but push the opinion back so late that no trial will be possible.

[JPhillips]

Elon should run for President and then claim only an act of congress can enforce the citizenship clause.

[Lathum]

It is really wild how we are living in two realities. We all know Trump will be the nominee, but half the news outlets will claim he is steam rolling and the other half will claim he is only getting 70% or so of support and with a lot of Haley voters saying they will never vote Trump he can't win the general.

I suspect RFK brings home the win for Trump.

[RainMaker]

RFK hurts Trump more than Biden in polls.

This is a good article on how Trump has built a lead in the polls. Him being off Twitter is one of them.

Trump Is Winning This Election Right Now. Here’s Why. | The Nation

[Ksyrup]

In combination with being off Twitter, the fact that Truth Social's search function is broken (probably by design) makes it harder to make the "there's a post for that" immediate responses that juxtapose what he said weeks/months/years ago with things he's saying now.