Invasion of Ukraine

[whomario]

5 members of parliament from the german right wing party AFD (thing MAGA) announced they would visit Russian controlled territory today. Even the party leadership, who are all pro Russia, was a bit miffed at that idiocy. Now one of them went on Twitter said they were turning back afterall. Either they got a kind reminder from our version of homeland security, a screaming earfull from party leadership or they got scared to get in the crossfire.

[GrantDawg]

Let me get this straight:
1. Russia thought their "special operation" would last 3 days.
2. After 2 months of fighting with Spetsnaz, Airborne & 190+ BTGs, they achieved NONE of their Strategic, Operational or Tactical Objectives.
3. Based on #2, they decided to shift... 1/8

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) September 20, 2022

[Mota]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Wow, some scary shit. Check out the YT video below.





https://youtu.be/sGYKjxhYyrA

Those are all military targets, right? The entire city?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Vlad has a speech today.

Rescheduled for tomorrow 9am local time (which is 1am ET). Wonder what happened?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Supposedly some sort of general mobilization (and referendum in the Russian controlled Ukrainian areas).

It's partial mobilization and referendums.

Flights out of Russia are all sold out. Second day of bad markets 403 Forbidden. There's bound to be more internal dissent.

If they can pull off the 300K troops (even poorly trained), that's a lot of cannon fodder. If Putin survives and this plan is implemented, it'll be a long year 2.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced the immediate “partial mobilization” of Russian citizens, a move that threatens to escalate his faltering invasion of Ukraine following a string of defeats that caused recriminations in Moscow.

Putin said in a speech Wednesday that he would use “all the means at our disposal,” and threatened the use of nuclear weapons, if he deemed the “territorial integrity” of Russia to be jeopardized.

The mobilization means citizens who are in the reserve could be called up, and those with military experience would be subject to conscription, Putin said, adding that the necessary decree had already been signed and took effect on Wednesday.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Russian television Wednesday morning that the country will call up 300,000 reservists. “These are not some people who have never heard of the army,” Shoigu said. “These are those who have served, have a military registration specialty, have had military experience.”

[PilotMan]

Guess when the prisoners they released defected or ran away they needed to try plan D. Russia always has its fallback plan of just bumrushing the front with a few hundred thousand people. It's had success before!

[Coffee Warlord]

The average price of a ticket from Moscow to Yerevan prior to mobilization... $250. Now? $5224.

[Edward64]

I've always wanted to visit St. Petersburg (and all the history) so checked it out. Flights from Atlanta are going for $3,500 to $4,500 through Feb.

They were prob. already high because of the war but not sure if it jumped up (probably) because of the partial mobilization.

Don't worry, I won't be travelling with any MJ.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

The average price of a ticket from Moscow to Yerevan prior to mobilization... $250. Now? $5224.

Damn that Biden inflation!

[Edward64]

This popped up today. But know this was already in the works back in Aug.

Pentagon ordered Switchblade 600 kamikaze drones for the Ukrainian Armed Forces

I'm pretty convinced I do not want to be a Russian tanker in the Ukraine theatre. I'm beginning to think the best military job in a war is a drone pilot.

The U.S. has already transferred loitering munitions (kamikaze drones) – those capable of staying in the air for a certain time before hitting the target – to Ukraine. These included the smaller Switchblade 300 drones and the Phoenix Ghost drones.

Switchblade 600 has a powerful warhead similar to the American-made Javelin anti-tank missile, which allows destroying heavily armored vehicles, including tanks. This loitering munition with a weight of 23 kg is capable of destroying targets with the attack from the top.

[GrantDawg]

I don't know about the "best job." You really have to deal with seeing a high amount of death that happened by your hand.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Lathum]

Flights departing Moscow and St. Petersburg today. The @AP is reporting international flights departing Russia have either sold out or skyrocketed in price after Putin announced a mobilization of reservists.

Search SVO, VKO, DME for Moscow airports and LED for St. Petersburg. pic.twitter.com/LV2PrkwPD9

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) September 21, 2022

[PilotMan]

A FORMER Putin ally and top aviation expert has died in Moscow, becoming the latest of the Russian president’s associates to die in a mysterious fashion since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Anatoly Gerashchenko, the former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI), died after reportedly falling down a series of flights of stairs on Tuesday.


He fell down multiple flights.....hmmm.

[GrantDawg]

It is crazy how they don't even try to cover up these political murders. "Make it look like an accident, but an accident that could never happen."

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Guess when the prisoners they released defected or ran away they needed to try plan D. Russia always has its fallback plan of just bumrushing the front with a few hundred thousand people. It's had success before!

If Russia tries the typical "throwing bodies to put out the fire", China will be the defacto owner of Siberia since the Russian population will be 75 million in 2060 next to a billion Chinese.

[albionmoonlight]

So is the play now to hope that a coup takes out Putin before he starts seriously thinking about using nukes?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So is the play now to hope that a coup takes out Putin before he starts seriously thinking about using nukes?

How many times has he already threatened nukes? He made the threat about sanctions, about military aid, about Finland and Sweden joining NATO, about the Ukrainians taking back any of the contested territories, etc. etc. etc. As convoluted his world view seem to be, I think he knows any use of nuclear weapons would be the catastrophic for him.

[bhlloy]

He’s bluffing about nukes because he’d be strung up in the ruins of Moscow in 24 hours if he used them, but chemical weapons could be on the table I would think. What is the west going to do to him that they either haven’t so far or aren’t threatening to do in the future?

Whoever globally (looking at you China and India) isn’t outraged about mass graves filled with civilians being found probably isn’t getting outraged over “reports” of chemical weapons being used.

[Edward64]

I think tactical nukes are the least likely option. World condemnation will be unforgiving. Ukraine may lose some cities and a lot of soldiers but NATO will jump into Ukraine to defend.

But yes, a coup would be great.

From Putin's POV, I think he knows the best/realistic option now is to retain the territories he's gained. With the new recruits, he can play defense and the attrition game until NATO get's tired.

From Russia's POV, the way for Russia (and military) to "save face" is if someone slipped something into Putin's soup, and proclaim he died of his illness and special operation is over.

From NATO's POV, continue to support Ukraine and bleed Russian military capabilities dry. Eventually, Russia's military in Ukraine will collapse.

[Edward64]

There's a lot of news out there about Russians travelling out of country to get away from the partial mobilization. I get the elites have the resources but wonder how most others will get by.

Could they have withdrawn enough cash? Can parents send money to them? Do their credit cards work? Do border officials question them if they plan to work illegally? Are they classified as political refugees? For those that don't have relatives/friends to help out, where do they stay?

I think there will be a lot of illegal Russians living around the world until this gets resolved. I can see them going to lower cost countries in Asia or Central/South America and "overstaying" (e.g. many countries allow 30-60 days visa free or automatic visas at point of entry).

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

It is crazy how they don't even try to cover up these political murders. "Make it look like an accident, but an accident that could never happen."

I read somewhere that some of these may not be Putin but some partisans doing the killing (e.g. like that car bombed daughter). No idea if true

[thesloppy]

Time to activate sleeper agent Seagal

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Time to activate sleeper agent Seagal

Good luck waking him up.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Edward64

There's a lot of news out there about Russians travelling out of country to get away from the partial mobilization.

It sounds like many others are trying to figure out other methods of avoiding being drafted...

'How to Break Arm' Becomes Top Google Trend as Russians Face Conscription

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Time to activate sleeper agent Seagal

Actually, maybe Putin is our sleeper agent and bringing the downfall of Russia?

[Groundhog]

What does Russia think it's conscript army is going to do besides walk up to the first Ukrainian soldier they see with their hands in the air the first time they see action.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

What does Russia think it's conscript army is going to do besides walk up to the first Ukrainian soldier they see with their hands in the air the first time they see action.

Supposedly these are all people with previous military training and service, but of course, not a bunch that are willingly ready to march into Ukraine.

[Edward64]

There's a lot of pics on the Ukrainian prisoners that were exchanged/released. I'm thinking many of them were bad off even before surrendering, but it does give you pause on what they guys have been through.

Mykhailo Dianov has been released from captivity. Marine and defender of "Azovstal". : ukraine

I know its illegal but com'on, can we fund (or provide intel to) others/groups that have expressed interest in taking out Putin?

He's like a "clear & present danger" right now.

[GrantDawg]

Russia seemed to try to make a major push in the air today. Ukraine reportedly shot down 4 jets, 5 UAV's, and a cruise missile.

[Coffee Warlord]

If my sources are correct....

The total number of tanks abandoned by Russians fleeing the counteroffensive now stands at 386, which is just 86 more tanks than Poland has supplied to Ukraine, making Russia now the number one supplier of military hardware to Ukraine, ahead of both Poland and the United States.

[sterlingice]

Such generous people, the Russians

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I know its illegal but com'on, can we fund (or provide intel to) others/groups that have expressed interest in taking out Putin?

I would hope/suspect that we are doing that right now--just keeping it secret. There have to be some old war-horses in the CIA who have been waiting for this moment for decades.

[sterlingice]

The difference is that we have to be less obvious than "fell out window" or else we risk WW3

SI

[Solecismic]

So, if another country bombed your city's infrastructure into dust, killed thousands of your neighbors and forced the majority of women, children and the elderly to flee to neighboring countries and men to join the military, how would you vote on whether your city should become part of that country?

You'd vote no, I suppose. I think I would. Life was presumably better before your home was destroyed and your neighbors were killed.

I see, 98% in favor. Good job, Putin. It seems you were right and everyone else was wrong.

All this brings up these age-old discussions about what constitutes civilization. What is land ownership? What constitutes a valid claim to land? It is just dirt and stuff we put on it, after all. When I was younger, there was a country called Yugoslavia. Last I checked, there were seven independent countries within those borders, and I'm not sure they're done dividing yet. It seems just a matter of time before China re-colonizes vast parts of Africa. Even the "great experiment" of the USA has a non-zero chance of balkanization (Yugoslavia's demise was so notable, it inspired its own word) as political views have become the most important division on dating sites - more important than sexual orientation these days, according to some story I read recently that claimed polling had been done, though that could have been exaggeration.

This isn't written to justify Putin's attack. Obviously, this has become some sort of proxy war between Russia/China and the West. The stakes are far greater than the ownership of a relatively small amount of dirt. So we continue. For us, just another large number added to an inconceivable national debt. We can't repay it, eventually what we call inflation will absorb it, and we hope, like after the '70s, that Washington starts thinking about the economy again before it's too late. For Russia, a testament to life in a country where the government always knows best and the media is simply another branch of the government.

But for those whose lives were directly affected, nothing can make up for this. World War I was once called "The War to End All War" because it was hypothesized that so many people had been directly affected that the world, collectively, would finally understand that fighting over who administers dirt has too great a price - all the dirt is assigned (at that time, Moon exploration wasn't even a science fiction topic). But World War II started barely 20 years after World War I ended. And we learned that if your leaders are safe inside a guarded building thousands of miles away, they quickly forget what war really means.

Oh, well. Maybe someday we can choose our country the same way we can choose what brand of clothes to purchase. We just fill out a form online, click send, and a package of laws and a bill for taxes arrives in an Amazon box the next day. No need to peek at the little man behind the curtain.

[MIJB#19]

It may seem trivial, but it doesn't feel that way to me. There's been sabotage of 2 gas pipe line from Russia to Germany yesterday and today. That to me sound like this could snowball into whatnot, because it's just before winter is coming.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

It may seem trivial, but it doesn't feel that way to me. There's been sabotage of 2 gas pipe line from Russia to Germany yesterday and today. That to me sound like this could snowball into whatnot, because it's just before winter is coming.

I don't think it is trivial at all and it may be the only way that Putin can cause worry for the West. Well other than threatening nuclear warfare.

[whomario]

those 'elections' were always going to be a sham and not only was the procedure a cynical joke (for example countless reports of people being visited by officials accompanied by soldiers getting to 'vote' openly in front of them), not to mention that many especially ukrainians fled those areas and reports of high voter turnout are just funny considering nobody could even tell how many are still living there, but also there obviously is no way to tell what, even with this in mind, the actual results of the 'votes' collected were or weren't. This result is delivered via the counting not the voting.

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

It may seem trivial, but it doesn't feel that way to me. There's been sabotage of 2 gas pipe line from Russia to Germany yesterday and today. That to me sound like this could snowball into whatnot, because it's just before winter is coming.

2 Pipelines that weren't used at all in recent weeks and were pretty much written off as options by the german government, though. Russia had first severely limited and then stopped sending Gas through Northstream 1 (inventing ever more outlandish technical issues or refusing delivery of parts) and Germany has refused to open the new Northstream 2 instead, plus the company managing it is pretty much kaputt due to american sanctions. Plus, Germanys 'tanks' are pretty much filled up (91% of capacity, much higher than what models called for as needed by this point and also much higher than prior years).

So there's no practical need for any russian gas to come through those pipelines anymore. The gas that was in it has been 'leftover' gas (nobody quite wanted to get into the legality of pumping it out) that was pumped in a while back but not out. Of course it would have been cheaper with that gas (but any cheaper gas that would hypothetically come now wouldn't influence prices for months and current price is indeed already 60% lower than at peak) and the knock on effects, as Germany cornered the market in a way, will have hurt other countries but just wanted to point out that recently or for the 'projections' they really made no practical difference, winter or not. Symbolically, this would a different matter (what would be the next target?)

[Solecismic]

Europe took the threat seriously and probably staved off a humanitarian disaster this winter. Good for them. Germany has nearly filled its tanks at 10 times the recent average annual cost. This has triggered a price drop, since the tanks hold (for Germany) about 70 days of what the country needs during an average winter and demand is unlikely to increase. Futures are trading at about 6 times last year's cost. Recession is likely across Europe. The UK is capping what individuals will have to pay for energy this winter, but businesses are going under. This is all quite a heavy price for outsourcing energy production, and it's only going to get worse, war or no war.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

When I was younger, there was a country called Yugoslavia. Last I checked, there were seven independent countries within those borders, and I'm not sure they're done dividing yet.

TBH, I'm with you and am confused on those countries. Need to sit down and read up on who's who.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Edward64

TBH, I'm with you and am confused on those countries. Need to sit down and read up on who's who.

I'm basically unfamiliar with any countries that changed from the maps in the WWII games I might play.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Bobble

I'm basically unfamiliar with any countries that changed from the maps in the WWII games I might play.

Hah, now that you mention it ... Avalon Hill's Third Reich!

[Edward64]

Dire (and fair) warning for dual citizens. I'd think if you're male and there right now, you better scoot.

US Embassy warns Americans to leave Russia | CNN Politics

“Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals’ US citizenship, deny their access to US consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service,” the alert said.

The embassy has consistently warned Americans not to travel to Russia and to depart the country immediately if there.

The embassy alert urged US citizens to “avoid all political or social protests and do not photograph security personnel at these events,” noting that “the right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression are not guaranteed in Russia.”

But this part is BS. The consulates/embassy should have some sort of 800 number to assist citizens. Heck, just outsource to AMEX travel or like.

“If you wish to depart Russia, you should make independent arrangements as soon as possible,” it said.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Hah, now that you mention it ... Avalon Hill's Third Reich!

I was stunned to learn some of those countries aren't actually hexagonally-shaped...

Originally Posted by Edward64

But this part is BS. The consulates/embassy should have some sort of 800 number to assist citizens. Heck, just outsource to AMEX travel or like.

I dunno. I don't think you want to publicly claim to be the focal point if you're not immediately ready to do the work. Hopefully they're offering quality advice for the inevitable calls they'll get anyway.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Edward64

But this part is BS. The consulates/embassy should have some sort of 800 number to assist citizens. Heck, just outsource to AMEX travel or like.

Emergency Contacts - All Locations - U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Russia.

[JPhillips]

It's probably safer to handle travel on your own rather than be with a large group of Americans. Any travel would have to be on public airlines or trains and the embassy arranging those trips would make it easy for the Russian government to inderdict.

[bhlloy]

So you dial an 800 number to say I’ve had my passport taken and I’ve been served with conscription papers and they do… what exactly?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

So you dial an 800 number to say I’ve had my passport taken and I’ve been served with conscription papers and they do… what exactly?

Send in Steven Seagal, sleeper agent?

SI

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Send in Steven Seagal, sleeper agent?

SI

https://www.militarytimes.com/off-du...-spokesperson/

I'm sure he'd give you a ride to the nearest military base.

[sterlingice]

/Insert McBain "That's the joke" GIF/

SI

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

So you dial an 800 number to say I’ve had my passport taken and I’ve been served with conscription papers and they do… what exactly?

Tell you to try and get to the embassy or consulate and they'll try to negotiate your safe exit from the country.