Breakout Kings: Werewolf Style (Game over - village wins)

[Danny]

Crimson, based on the way I am reading the rules, it looks like you are probably not converted until tomorrow night.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

5-3-2 with two known wolves - and, presumably, the wolves able to night kill each other. But yeah, still a hole for the village.

That's kind of another reason why I have my doubts about the reveal. It seems like too big a mechanic to have with barely a mention in the rules other than a cryptic comment about Ronnie.

Yes, the win condition was not only to beat the village, but also eliminate the original wolves. Occam's razor Narcizo.

[Danny]

Ah you are right it is 7-3 now. I was reading the player list for people alive and counted Brit as dead cause he was in red

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

You do realize that not only did I vote Brit, I was the one on near deadline that convinced others to change their vote.

Yeah, yeah. Fair enough. I'd forgotten the last bit about convincing people to vote Brit.

[Danny]

If you're that worried about it, we could have Ronnie reveal and confirm my story. There may not be any value in him hiding since he cant actually scan the unknown wolf.

[Danny]

Based on how today went down, I wouldnt be surprised if Chief was actually the other wolf. Both he and Brit seemed way too passive

[Narcizo]

Day One

#59 04:03 Narcizo votes Passacaglia (1)
#60 05:32 JAG votes bhlloy (1)
#68 06:56 JAG unvotes bhlloy (0)
#68 06:56 JAG votes Narcizo (1)
#72 07:02 Danny votes bhlloy (1)
#80 07:35 Jackal votes Darth Vilus (1)
#88 08:44 Britrock votes CrimsonFox (1)
#91 09:31 CrimsonFox votes Narcizo (2)
#96 11:20 Bhlloy votes Julio (1)
#98 12:09 Julio votes Jackal (1)
#103 13:16 Chief Rum votes Danny (1)

#108 14:37 Darth Vilus votes Jackal (2)
#109 15:02 Narcizo unvotes Passacaglia (0)
#109 15:02 Narcizo votes Bhlloy (2)
#110 15:04 LoneStarGirl votes Jackal (3)
#117 15:16 LoneStarGirl unvotes Jackal (2)
#131 17:00 Chubby votes Darth Vilus (2)
#132 17:11 LoneStarGirl votes Narcizo (3)
#133 17:26 JAG unvotes Narcizo (2)
#133 17:26 JAG votes Julio (2)
#138 18:04 Passacaglia votes Danny (2)

#144 19:00 Autumn votes Julio (3)
#152 19:19 Zinto votes Bhlloy (3)
#156 19:33 Julio unvotes Jackal (1)
#156 19:33 Julio votes Bhlloy (4)
#157 19:37 Danny unvotes Bhlloy (3)
#157 19:37 Danny votes Julio (4)
#176 20:39 Julio unvotes Bhlloy (2)
#176 20:39 Julio votes Danny (3)
#178 20:41 JAG unvotes Julio (3)
#187 20:55 Zinto unvotes Bhlloy (1)
#187 20:55 Zinto votes Narcizo (3)
#188 20:56 Bhlloy unvotes Julio (2)
#188 20:56 Bhlloy votes CrimsonFox (2)

#196 21:13 JAG votes Bhlloy (2)
#197 21:15 CrimsonFox unvotes Narcizo (2)
#197 21:15 CrimsonFox votes Bhlloy (3)
#199 21:15 Britrock unvotes CrimsonFox (1)
#221 21:32 Britrock votes Darth Vilus (3)
#224 21:34 Bhlloy unvotes Crimson Fox (1)
#224 21:34 Bhlloy votes Darth Vilus (4)
#226 21:36 CrimsonFox unvotes Bhlloy (2)
#226 21:36 CrimsonFox votes Narcizo (3)
#229 21:39 GoldenEagle votes Danny (4)
#253 21:52 Passa unvotes Danny (3)
#253 21:52 Passa votes Darth Vilus (5)
#255 21:53 JAG unvotes Bhlloy (2)
#255 21:53 JAG votes Julio (3)
#268 21:57 Autumn unvotes Julio (2)
#268 21:57 Autumn votes Narcizo (4)

Darth Vilus 5 - Jackal (80), Chubby (131), britrock (221), bhlloy (224), Passacaglia (253)
Danny 3 - Chief Rum (103), Julio Ridols (178), GoldenEagle (229)
Narcizo 4 - LSG (132), Zinto (187), CrimsonFox(227), Autumn (268)
Julio Ridols 2 - Danny (157), JAG (255)
Bhlloy 1 - Narcizo (109)
The Jackal 1 - Darth Vilus (108)

[Narcizo]

Day Two

#310 10:47 Danny votes Julio (1)
#338 02:19 Narcizo votes LoneStarGirl (1)
#341 03:19 Danny unvotes Julio (0)
#341 03:19 Danny votes Bhlloy (1)
#342 03:20 CrimsonFox votes Chief Rum (1)
#353 03:57 Narcizo unvotes LoneStarGirl (0)
#353 03:57 Narcizo votes Bhlloy (2)
#364 09:30 Autumn votes Chief (2)

#370 09:51 LoneStarGirl votes Chubby (1)
#375 10:03 GOD votes CrimsonFox (1)
#377 10:40 Julio votes Chief (3)
#390 11:30 Bhlloy votes Chubby (2)
#399 11:53 CrimsonFox unvotes Chief (2)
#399 11:53 CrimsonFox votes GoldenEagle (1)
#401 11:59 GoldenEagle votes Chubby (3)
#403 12:04 CrimsonFox unvotes GoldenEagle (0)
#403 12:04 CrimsonFox votes Bhlloy (3)
#404 12:06 Passacaglia votes Chief Rum (3)
#408 12:11 Autumn unvotes Chief Rum (2)
#408 12:11 Autumn votes GoldenEagle (1)
#409 12:16 CrimsonFox unvotes Bhlloy (2)
#409 12:16 CrimsonFox votes GoldenEagle (2)
#411 12:19 Jackal votes GoldenEagle (3)
#444 14:08 Julio unvotes Chief (1)
#444 14:08 Julio votes Chubby (4)

#448 14:30 Zinto votes Bhlloy (3)
#464 15:04 LoneStarGirl unvotes Chubby (3)
#464 15:04 LoneStarGirl votes Julio (1)
#501 16:12 Bhlloy unvotes Chubby (3)
#501 16:12 Bhlloy votes Julio (2)
#502 16:15 GoldenEagle unvotes Chubby (2)
#502 16:15 GoldenEagle votes Bhlloy (4)
#567 19:12 Chubby votes Bhlloy (5)
#572 19:32 Chief voes Julio (3)
#577 19:51 Britrock votes Julio (4)

#586 20:20 Bhlloy claims Ray

#588 20:22 Bhlloy unvotes Julio (3)
#588 20:22 Bhlloy votes Chubby (3)
#595 20:29 Zinto unvotes Bhlloy (4)
#598 20:35 Britrock unvotes Julio (3)
#598 20:35 Britrock votes Chubby (4)
#606 20:42 Zinto votes GoldenEagle (4)
#614 20:53 Danny unvotes Bhlloy (3)
#614 20:53 Danny votes Julio (4)
#669 21:54 LoneStarGirl unvotes Julio (3)
#669 21:54 LoneStarGirl votes GoldenEagle (5)
#673 21:55 Bhlloy unvotes Chubby (3)
#673 21:55 Bhlloy votes GoldenEagle (6)

bhlloy 3 - Narcizo (353), GE (502), Chubby (567)
GoldenEagle 6 - Autumn (408), CrimsonFox (409), The Jackal (411), Zinto (606), LoneStarGirl (669), bhlloy (673)
Julio Riddols 2 - Chief (572), Danny (614)
Chubby 2 - Julio Riddols (444), Britrock (598)
Chief 1 - Passacaglia (404)
CrimsonFox 1 - GOD (375)

[Danny]

I completely believe that the third wolf is someone who was not around toward the deadline of day and probably not day one either.

[Danny]

In fact, I'll bet right now the last wolf is either Chief or Narcizo.

[Danny]

Julio and Chubby are trusted after britrock tried to get a run on both going and slide the vote away from GoldenEagle.

[Danny]

There is no way a veteran wolf who was around after BH's reveal day two brutals Autumn over bhlloy and allows our seer to reveal before being converted. This puts Zinto into the ulti trust list as well.

[Danny]

Plus he put a key vote on GE and I have a good read him on as well. So, Chubby, Julio and Zinto, all 99% good so far.

[Danny]

Im going to check who else was around day 2 as well that just may not appear in the vote log.

[Danny]

It doesn't look like anyone else posted around that time. I'll try and analyze Jackal and Pass a little more.

First, I doubt Pass just doesn;t show up with his wolf buddy on the line. I also dont have a wolfy vibe from him.

[Danny]

You know what, I just don't see a point to waiting as we have to kill Crimson and Brit anyway and the only wolf he could scan for is the cunning. Pass is Ronnie and now a confirmed villager.

[Danny]

Jackal had a very good day two vote, but also a weak day three vote. Still, would he really sell out a wolf on day two (at a time where he could have more easily gotten away with not voting a wolf) and then risk losing the trust he had on day 3? It doesn't seem too likely at all.

[Narcizo]

Was Passa around? He seems to have been missing alot.

I agree that it looks like Chief, Passa or me. We get two shots so if only we'd nailed the cunning we'd be sorted.

Shoot your case against me Danny and I'll do what I can to argue against it.

[Danny]

Pending more analysis, this is my trust list.

Pass (100% villager)

Chubby (feel very very strongly all three are villagers)
Julio
Zinto

Jackal (leaning toward villager)

Narcizo (90% chance the last wolf is one of these two guys)
Chief Rum

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Was Passa around? He seems to have been missing alot.

I agree that it looks like Chief, Passa or me. We get two shots so if only we'd nailed the cunning we'd be sorted.

Shoot your case against me Danny and I'll do what I can to argue against it.

I actually think the last wolf is Chief with you as my second choice. Being able to eliminate Pass was huge.

BTW, I scanned you first for Ronnie lol.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

You know what, I just don't see a point to waiting as we have to kill Crimson and Brit anyway and the only wolf he could scan for is the cunning. Pass is Ronnie and now a confirmed villager.

Well if that's the case then we should be alright. I guess there's a chance that Julio or Chubby is a wolf but I don't really think so.

[Danny]

Also, not a big thing, but assuming both Autumn and Jag were early orders to be killed, if Narcizo was a wolf, I dont think Id still be alive.

[Danny]

Where as I could definitely see Chief keeping me alive since killing me off would have put a spotlight on my dya 1 voters, which includes Chief.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Shoot your case against me Danny and I'll do what I can to argue against it.

I actually don't think there is a great case against you, it's just that other players have a lot in support of them being villagers and if Chief comes back villager (which I am starting to think wont happen and hes a wolf), there really isnt anywhere better to look.

[Danny]

And my gut actually tells me you are a villager. But again, objectively, you have the best case against you after Chief.

[Narcizo]

Doesn't seem like much point exerting much effort as I doubt I'm going to be night killed (I'd be very happy if I was) and we have two days to get through before we get to a meaningful vote.

[Danny]

And I just don't understand Chief's and Brit's behavior today unless they were both wolves.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Doesn't seem like much point exerting much effort as I doubt I'm going to be night killed (I'd be very happy if I was) and we have two days to get through before we get to a meaningful vote.

Except right now you get to talk to me. Im pretty sure I will be dead this time tomorrow.

[Danny]

Which is why I am making sure to post all of my thoughts now.

[Danny]

So Crimson, you can tell us, who is your wolf buddy? .

[Danny]

I will be around very little today after I eventually go to sleep and not at all really up to deadline as I have tutoring, so let me say this again.

After you lynch Britrock and Crimson then lynch Chief Rum and Narcizo in that order and you will win.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

Also, not a big thing, but assuming both Autumn and Jag were early orders to be killed, if Narcizo was a wolf, I dont think Id still be alive.

I assume Golden had a standing brutal order which he set to Autumn as soon as he saw Autumn go after him. Someone spotted that LSG was the bodyguard and ordered her killing.

You would still be alive Danny if I was a wolf - I wouldn't take you out on night one as you had votes and I wouldn't want to clear things up for the village. Night two I don't know who my early order would be but I assume it would be changed to LSG anyway. Night three we kill bhlloy.

[Danny]

I think LSG was a standing order pre reveal as well. She was also going hard after GE. In general, wolf moves so far have appeared to be level one thinking type plays.

[Danny]

It seems highly unlikely they change the nk post reveal to LSG and not the brutal. I think both orders were set pre reveal.

[Narcizo]

Well there's no way I'd even think of killing LSG - that decision would have to have been made after I left, were I a wolf.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

You would still be alive Danny if I was a wolf - I wouldn't take you out on night one as you had votes and I wouldn't want to clear things up for the village. Night two I don't know who my early order would be but I assume it would be changed to LSG anyway. Night three we kill bhlloy.

Fair enough. I still dont see anyway the wolf isnt you or Chief

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Well there's no way I'd even think of killing LSG - that decision would have to have been made after I left, were I a wolf.

Thats probably true, I am assuming GE and Brit made the decisions of who to brutal and who to kill with suggestions made by either Chief or you before the person went offline for the day.

[Narcizo]

Yeah, an absent Chief Rum, inexperienced Britrock and intermittently available GoldenEagle seems likeliest.

[Danny]

Chief's vote on day two looks pretty bad. At the time BH had a nice lead and his choice was either GE or Julio. He went Julio. He then went offline for the day well before bh's reveal.

[Danny]

And the very next vote after Chief votes Julio giving him 3 is Britrock giving Julio 4 and then putting GoldenEagle as a 3rd candidate after appearing like he was going to be the second candidate with bhlloy.

[Danny]

This set of votes is telling right here. This is when GoldenEagle is tied with Bhlloy 3-3.

#502 16:15 GoldenEagle unvotes Chubby (2)
#502 16:15 GoldenEagle votes Bhlloy (4)
#567 19:12 Chubby votes Bhlloy (5)
#572 19:32 Chief voes Julio (3)
#577 19:51 Britrock votes Julio (4)

[Danny]

That makes it bhlloy 5 and Julio 4 and seemingly GE is safe. They then have orders in to take out Autumn and LSG, the two people really going after GE

[Narcizo]

The main thing I dislike with them both being wolves is Britrock following Chief's vote on Julio on day two. But I guess you have to look for different patterns with inexperienced wolves.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

The main thing I dislike with them both being wolves is Britrock following Chief's vote on Julio on day two. But I guess you have to look for different patterns with inexperienced wolves.

But looking at what we know of the wolf moves so far, it would be out of character.

[Danny]

That should say it would not be out of character

[Narcizo]

Can you run by me why you trust for Julio Danny? Is it just the last minute move last night?

[Narcizo]

At English I fail.

[Danny]

It's britrocks actions day 2. He helped establish Julio as a candidate over GoldenEagle. I dont see why he would do that as a new wolf.

[Danny]

He did unvote Julio when bhlloy unvoted Julio and switched to ZChubby,but if Julio was his wolf buddy why not just vote for Chubby out right and risk Julio being up for lynch?

[Narcizo]

Right then. I've pretty much convinced myself. Where's teh ketchup pr0n?