WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[Danny]

EagleFan should be blue in the first one.

[Danny]

Voting so far, I am working from the premise at this point that PB is the real seer. (Fixed and reposted for the new page)

Day 1

lerriuqs 6 – USFLTecmo (246), MartinD (356), saldana (362), Lathum (376), Hoops (394), Telle (304)
DaddyTorgo 6 – lerriuqs (250), Racer (312), EagleFan (383), Tyrith (411), Dubb (420), Danny (425)
MartinD 1 – Schmidty (306)
EagleFan 2 – ntndeacon (366), PurdueBrad (375)
Schmidty 1 - Chief Rum (378)

Day 2

Martin – lerriuqs (597), Chief (713), Purdue (718), Tyrith (759), Schmidty (776), Danny (782)
Tyrith – Martin (682), saldana (704),
Danny – Lathum (669), Telle (710)
USFL – dubb (738), Racer (742), Hoops (761), NTN (775)

[saldana]

i dont know where i will be later (or if i will be able to read), so for lack of a better target, i will go back to my day one vote

vote lerriuqs

[Danny]

Considering who made up the three late votes on Martin and the three last votes on USFL, I think it is unlikely USFL is a wolf. Schmidty is the only one who might have been saving Martin, but I just don't see it.

I think what looks most suspicious are the three votes of Racer, Hoops, NTN on USFL and Telle on me. A wolf would want to avoid a clear pile on Martin and would look to place their vote elsewhere. Lathum I am excluding because I remember he put an early early vote on me and I think was out the rest of the day.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by saldana

i dont know where i will be later (or if i will be able to read), so for lack of a better target, i will go back to my day one vote

vote lerriuqs

How am I a good target? I don't understand this at all. After putting myself right in the light to start do you really think the wolves try to kill me even if they thought I was really the cultist? No, they're going to let me live because of all the "suspicion" around me.

I like what Danny's done. And hopefully, we can rely on what's there cause it's a very short list if we can.

On that note, I like where Danny's going on this.

Vote Hoops

[Danny]

I'm not necessarily opposed to Lerriuqs as a candidate today, but really do not think USFL is a wolf and think he is a poor choice for today.

[Danny]

I'd prefer our two candidates be two of the four of Hoops, NTN, Telle and Racer

[lerriuqs]

Just to add if I was really the cultist, I'd let you lynch me.

[Danny]

As of 1058

1 Danny - Dubb (988)
1 Racer - Lathum (1039)
1 USFL - Racer (1047)
2 Lerriuqs - Telle (1046), Saldana (1053)
2 Hoopsguy - PurdueBrad (1013), Lerriuqs (1055)

[Tyrith]

I can't justify voting for ntn just because he's in the right group of candidates and to keep punishing his UTR-ness; I've been doing that for a long time and I'm sure he's sick of it. Racer's moves have struck me as off key as well, but this isn't a super solid vote. Although I'd like to not have to switch at the end for the third day in a row.

VOTE RACER

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

This is what we have as far as players so far.

Dubb - Claimed Duke, Believed Seer
Saldana - scanned by Dubb
PurdueBrad - Claimed Seer, Believed BG
Chief Rum - Scanned by PB
Tyrith - Scanned by PB
Danny - Claimed Maniac

That leaves us with

Schmidty
Hoopsguy
USFLTecmo
Lerriuqs
ntn
Lathum
Telle
Racer

Our lynch, maniac kill and two scans should come from this group

Let's not forget we want someone scanning dubb tonight.

[Chief Rum]

I mentioned my suspicion of Racer yesterday, although I put it as "by elimination" at the time, as an original voter on DT. Since then he has said a thing or two which made me a little more suspicious. So if I were to vote now, I am leaning Racer as well.

I am gioing to hold it, though, and see what develops.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

How am I a good target? I don't understand this at all. After putting myself right in the light to start do you really think the wolves try to kill me even if they thought I was really the cultist? No, they're going to let me live because of all the "suspicion" around me.

I understand you don't want to be a candidate but you really can't argue the logic that you claim cultist then there is no night kill that people will be suspicous of you.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I understand you don't want to be a candidate but you really can't argue the logic that you claim cultist then there is no night kill that people will be suspicous of you.

I understand it - I'm pointing out why it's bad logic...

[Danny]

Vote Telle

I may change this later, but I would like to see some pressure on her, and NTN along with Racer and Hoops

[USFLTecmo]

Vote NTN

Based on Danny's logic, and based on the fact that I'm gone for the night, most likely. Wanted to make sure I got a vote in, though.

[Lathum]

vote count?

[Danny]

As of 1067

1 Danny - Dubb (988)
2 Racer - Lathum (1039), Tyrith (1060)
1 USFL - Racer (1047)
2 Lerriuqs - Telle (1046), Saldana (1053)
2 Hoopsguy - PurdueBrad (1013), Lerriuqs (1055)
1 Telle - Danny (1065)
1 NTN - USFL (1066)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

Vote NTN

Based on Danny's logic, and based on the fact that I'm gone for the night, most likely. Wanted to make sure I got a vote in, though.

Good move (about the act of voting, unsure on it being NTN).

Did you get belief votes in already?

Come to think of it, anyone got a belief vote count?

[Danny]

I didn't do a belief vote count yet, maybe someone else will feel up for that

[Danny]

I think this is right

4 Believe Saldana is the Brutal Wolf - NTN, PurdueBrad Racer, Schmidty
6 Believe Saldana Tough Wolf - Dubb, Hoops, Danny, Tyrith, Lerriuqs, Lathum
1 Believe Saldana is Vengeful Wolf - USFL
7 Believe Saldana as Maniac - Saldana, Racer, Telle, Dubb, Danny, PurdueBrad, Lathum
1 Believe Tyrith as Maniac - Hoops

[Racer]

Okay back for a bit. Since it looks like I will have three votes on myself and no one else has any interest in lyching USFL which I'm surprised by, I'm going to move my vote

Unvote USFL
Vote Danny


When we haven't even had one wolf, that list is to good to be true (I especially don't like the crap of him coloring his own name blue).

I'm hesitant to believe Danny's reveal as the Maniac since apparently not all roles are necessarily in the game.

Also, he pretty much saved USFL from a late push as he switched late twice to make the vote go form 5-5 USFL-Martin tie to 6-4 Martin.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Racer

Okay back for a bit. Since it looks like I will have three votes on myself and no one else has any interest in lyching USFL which I'm surprised by, I'm going to move my vote

Unvote USFL
Vote Danny


When we haven't even had one wolf, that list is to good to be true (I especially don't like the crap of him coloring his own name blue).

I'm hesitant to believe Danny's reveal as the Maniac since apparently not all roles are necessarily in the game.

Also, he pretty much saved USFL from a late push as he switched late twice to make the vote go form 5-5 USFL-Martin tie to 6-4 Martin.

Really bad vote. I posted the analysis I was using (I obviously I know I am good), others are free to use it or not. You're voting for someone who did reveal a role which has not been countered over others who have nothing at all to add trust to them. I am not saying I should be cleared for the game, but at this point in time, that's not a smart vote.

Regarding my vote yesterday. I wasn't able to make much of an informed decision as I came on just minutes before deadline and I stand behind my thinking that USFL is likely good.

[Danny]

Also, I was one of the people who helped the run onto USFL as I put my vote there right after I got back, but then switched when I saw the reason people were voting him.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Danny

Considering who made up the three late votes on Martin and the three last votes on USFL, I think it is unlikely USFL is a wolf. Schmidty is the only one who might have been saving Martin, but I just don't see it.

I think what looks most suspicious are the three votes of Racer, Hoops, NTN on USFL and Telle on me. A wolf would want to avoid a clear pile on Martin and would look to place their vote elsewhere. Lathum I am excluding because I remember he put an early early vote on me and I think was out the rest of the day.

You haven't been cleared by anybody but yourself. The wolves know which roles are and aren't in the game (I didn't realize until earlier today that not all roles are necessarily in the game). That means you could probably pick out a role that isn't in the game if you were a wolf without fear of someone else claiming it.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Racer

You haven't been cleared by anybody but yourself. The wolves know which roles are and aren't in the game (I didn't realize until earlier today that not all roles are necessarily in the game). That means you could probably pick out a role that isn't in the game if you were a wolf without fear of someone else claiming it.

And neither has Dubb for that matter. But I trust him.

BK, Do the wolves know which specific roles are or are not in the game or are they just told they all are or they all aren't?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Racer

You haven't been cleared by anybody but yourself. The wolves know which roles are and aren't in the game (I didn't realize until earlier today that not all roles are necessarily in the game). That means you could probably pick out a role that isn't in the game if you were a wolf without fear of someone else claiming it.

In my analysis feel free to switch my name in blue for yours.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

And neither has Dubb for that matter. But I trust him.

BK, Do the wolves know which specific roles are or are not in the game or are they just told they all are or they all aren't?

From the rules:

The wolves will either know one villager role not present in the game or that all villager roles are present in the game.

[Danny]

Ok, well that does put potential doubt into my reveal as it's theoretically possible that I as a wolf would have been told their is no maniac in the game.

[Lathum]

Not sure how much movement we will see but I would like to see some consolodation of the voting.

[dubb93]

Unvote Danny

I'm inclined to atleast give Danny a pass for the day unless someone else speaks up and claims the role Danny is attempting to claim.

[Chief Rum]

Well, if consolidation happens, I want to be sure the candidate I am looking at is one of them, so I'll vote now.

VOTE RACER

For reasons stated. He's perhaps the most uncleared of the remaining DT voters, he is one of the three players known to have voted for villagers thus far, and he came off around in my mind this morning arguing against the dubb scan.

There are mitigating factors for all these, so he's far from a guy who is an obvious wolf, but in my mind, he's the best target for today, given what we know so far.

[dubb93]

Disbelieve Saldana as Tough wolf

I think I have made my stance pretty clear as to what role I want Saldana to have. I think he can do more for us as the maniac than he can as the tough wolf.

[Chief Rum]

Clarity post--the above on Racer should read that he came off a little too weird/strong about the dubb scan proposal I put out this morning.

[dubb93]

I'm very much leaning toward Racer today. I have to get a vote out within the next 30 mins or so, so if anyone can come up with a reason why I shouldn't vote racer today then please say so.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Disbelieve Saldana as Tough wolf

I think I have made my stance pretty clear as to what role I want Saldana to have. I think he can do more for us as the maniac than he can as the tough wolf.

I agree with this

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Clarity post--the above on Racer should read that he came off a little too weird/strong about the dubb scan proposal I put out this morning.

Which is odd because I have never said not to scan me. Infact I think a scan of me will go a long way towards increasing our COT as my scans will be able to be absolutely trusted.

[Danny]

Dubb, between the four players I mentioned where do you lean towards going?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Danny

Dubb, between the four players I mentioned where do you lean towards going?

I'm leaning toward Racer although I think Hoops as the potential cultist is a solid vote as well.

[Danny]

Unvote Telle

Really no support for this, I'm leaning towards going Hoops over Racer, but I think if those are our two candidates we are in good shape.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Danny

Unvote Telle

Really no support for this, I'm leaning towards going Hoops over Racer, but I think if those are our two candidates we are in good shape.

I can say with 100% certainty that Racer will not be my scan tonight. I cannot say the same for Hoops if that makes any difference at all. I think Racer is the more obvious wolf at this point, if that makes him a wolf or not I cannot say.

[dubb93]

The only reason I can see for Racer not wanting me scanned is that he wants there to be doubt about my scans. Do you disagree CR?

[dubb93]

Vote Racer

I need to make sure I actually get this in before I have to leave.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, a couple of points:
1.) Look at the time that I voted USFL - he was 4-4-3-3 (going from memory, but can pull it up) so it was far from a throwaway vote with 15 or so minutes left before deadline. I also said last night that I was willing to change the vote to try and protect either you and/or Tyrith because I thought you guys were more likely to be villagers than the other two (USFL and Racer) who were on the block.
2.) If you are faking as maniac and there is that role in the game he doesn't need to counter you in the thread. You are just going to be a dead man tonight. So you suggesting (and others agreeing with) this point doesn't pass the smell test for me.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Danny, a couple of points:
2.) If you are faking as maniac and there is that role in the game he doesn't need to counter you in the thread. You are just going to be a dead man tonight. So you suggesting (and others agreeing with) this point doesn't pass the smell test for me.

Doesn't work that way, I can only kill a believed player. Since I am not believed as anything I (or the maniac if you don't believe me) could not kill me.

[hoopsguy]

I stand corrected. At the very least believe you have spent a fair amount of time considering the maniac reveal. The line of conversation around Saldana-Brutal Wolf today supports that. And I'm inclined to believe that you are the Maniac because it would fit, to some extent, with what I saw as a more aggressive probing/gut style of play from you earlier in the game than what I'm used to seeing from you.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

because it would fit, to some extent, with what I saw as a more aggressive probing/gut style of play from you earlier in the game than what I'm used to seeing from you.

Which was a good read. I was hoping to have a decent opportunity to use the ability and clear myself and potentially take out a wolf, but it doesn't look like I will have a reasonable chance to use it until possibly late game or with some new info being brought out against Dubb/PB which I think is unlikely. I was really hoping to use it against a believed brutal.

[hoopsguy]

Vote count as of Post #1097:

4 Racer - Lathum (1039), Tyrith (1060), Chief (1082), Dubb (1093)
2 Lerriuqs - Telle (1046), Saldana (1053)
2 Hoopsguy - PurdueBrad (1013), Lerriuqs (1055)
1 Telle - Danny (1065)
1 NTN - USFL (1066)
1 Danny - Racer (1072)

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

PB, is your connecting me to Telle purely a hypothetical based on your own arbitrary construct of criteria, or do you have in game reasons, like similar votes or posts or something like that? Same question with hoop/Lathum. I think it's just the former, but I felt it was unclear in your post. As someone who is completely unsure of Telle, I'm not particularly pleased to be linked with her at the moment if it is without cause.

CR, just saw this when I went back through, sorry. No, I was putting pairs that I wouldn't mind seeing put up against one another in voting. Sorry it wasn't clear.

[PurdueBrad]

Somebody briefly outline the Racer case for me. Looking back, I'm tempted to actually go Lathum, one of his chief accusers.