WW CLV - Royal Rumble! (GAME OVER!! RESULTS START IN POST #1401)

[Lathum]

cultist is dead

[JAG]

At this point everyone but path has shown up, which should make it clear that Lathum and I are the training partners as claimed.

[JAG]

If there are four wolves, then this is end game, 5-4. Even if there are three, if Chubby is a villager and gets eliminated in the rumble, this is our last chance to get a lynch right if they get the night kill.

[JAG]

In case we're dealing with a 5-4 situation, all the villagers need to stack their votes with Lathum and I (and DT unless path counter-reveals) because you can be sure we are villagers. If the village vote is split, if there are four wolves, then the wolves can stack their vote and basically choose the candidate.

That said, we have time to look at and debate the options before we come to a decision.

[JAG]

Barring counter-reveals (which realistically could only be from path), this is what our situation looks like:

100% trusted:
Lathum (training partner)
JAG (training partner)
DT

Could only be the cunning (not brutal or generic):
Autumn

Everyone else: (2-4 wolves among these players)

bulletsponge
britrock
Chubby
murrayyyyy
path

[Chubby]

If you are a villager, do NOT finish me. That would mean game over and wolves win between the lynch and night attack.

I will be using my special move today so if someone tries to finish me and fails, we have a wolf.

Its risky for the wolves to try and finish me as a wolf lynch means its still game on and they give up one of their own in the process. Since fight actions are due before lynch results, its highly improbable they try and finish me (but possible)

[Chubby]

vote murrayyyyyyyy

To get a vote in. He attempted a finisher yesterday and is on the list.

[Autumn]

Stuck on a work project, will be on later. Was hoping for a block there last night. But they're playing it safe, it seems. I was also looking forward to beating the crap out of Ultimate Warrior, so double bummer.

We started with what, 16? With all the roles in game, I expect only 3 wolves, particularly with the wrestling eliminations factored in.

[path12]

Originally Posted by JAG

Barring counter-reveals (which realistically could only be from path), this is what our situation looks like:

100% trusted:
Lathum (training partner)
JAG (training partner)
DT

Could only be the cunning (not brutal or generic):
Autumn

Everyone else: (2-4 wolves among these players)

bulletsponge
britrock
Chubby
murrayyyyy
path

I'm not going to counter the training partner angle. But can someone point me to why DT is now 100%? I got that he hinted of a role but didn't see more than that.

I'm generic.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

cultist is dead

Sorry I meant cunning. We have a cunning, right? (goes back to check roles)

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Stuck on a work project, will be on later. Was hoping for a block there last night. But they're playing it safe, it seems. I was also looking forward to beating the crap out of Ultimate Warrior, so double bummer.

We started with what, 16? With all the roles in game, I expect only 3 wolves, particularly with the wrestling eliminations factored in.

I haven't blocked any attacks all game. Frustrating.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Stuck on a work project, will be on later. Was hoping for a block there last night. But they're playing it safe, it seems. I was also looking forward to beating the crap out of Ultimate Warrior, so double bummer.

We started with what, 16? With all the roles in game, I expect only 3 wolves, particularly with the wrestling eliminations factored in.

We started with 18. The wolves get a brutal, cunning, and cultist to help out, but the village got a full allotment of roles as well. I expect 3 is more likely for what it's worth, but we basically need this lynch or it's over. With the wolves going for a sure kill, that tells me they think they're close.

[Lathum]

so the question is this. Do we try and finish Chubby, hope he is a wolf then hope to lynch another wolf tonight, or do we leave Chubby alive and hope he isn't a wolf?

[path12]

Originally Posted by JAG

In case we're dealing with a 5-4 situation, all the villagers need to stack their votes with Lathum and I (and DT unless path counter-reveals) because you can be sure we are villagers. If the village vote is split, if there are four wolves, then the wolves can stack their vote and basically choose the candidate.

That said, we have time to look at and debate the options before we come to a decision.

I am willing to do this, I do want to go back through old posts to verify the claims that you guys have been hinting to each other in thread but with no counter see no reason that will be an issue, I just need to do due diligence.

Will hold off on a vote for now then.

[path12]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I haven't blocked any attacks all game. Frustrating.

Leaving out last night can you say who you protected each night?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so the question is this. Do we try and finish Chubby, hope he is a wolf then hope to lynch another wolf tonight, or do we leave Chubby alive and hope he isn't a wolf?

That's what I'm pondering. If it's 7-3, we manage to lynch a wolf and kill one in the fight, and don't get a block, and it's 6-1 going in tomorrow.

But if Chubby is good, and we miss our lynch, could be 4-3 going into tomorrow. Or if JAG is right, 4-4.

[JAG]

9 players left Autumn. If there are three wolves and Chubby is a villager, then we're at 5-3 if the fight finishes him, which means a wrong lynch and night kill makes it 3-3 and game over.

My two cents is it's too risky to finish him unless we can make a good case that he's a wolf.

[Lathum]

I am along the lines of thinking we should finish him, but I am a gambler by nature.

I think given the fact there are technically 2 ways to kill wolves there are likely 4

[Autumn]

Sorry, JAG. I obviously need to concentrate on this work project and then concentrate on this. I hate Word's outlining feature!

[JAG]

I think there is probably no more than one wolf between Britrock and Chubby. They voted each other D2 and Brit tried to finish Chubby off yesterday, though it is a bit curious that Chubby didn't vote for the person who tried to finish him yesterday but went for the one who tried to finish the other finishable player.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by path12

Leaving out last night can you say who you protected each night?

Yep.

N1 was myself
N2 was saldana (obviously). I thought about revealing after this and trying to bluff that I didn't guard saldana actually in the hopes that the wolves would then go after somebody else and I could buy him another day before they nightkilled him, but I figured the odds of that working were like 0.01%, and I knew I wouldn't be around to answer questions and really control the situation
N3 was Autumn (based on all the late revealing and crazyness, thought the wolves might go for him if he's not one)
N4 I'm not revealing obviously

[Lathum]

I think Autumn is the Cunning. Otherwise, why don't the wolves try and kill him last night? He is a trusted villager and DT revealed so I would imagine the prevailing thought is he would protect himself.

VOTE Autumn

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think Autumn is the Cunning. Otherwise, why don't the wolves try and kill him last night? He is a trusted villager and DT revealed so I would imagine the prevailing thought is he would protect himself.

VOTE Autumn

I can see how this makes sense and would go along with it if there aren't any better options that come up on other analysis, but my preference is not to go "cunning hunting" if we don't have to, since we could really end us fusterclucking the game even more than we already have by lynching a seer-cleared villager to end the game.

[Autumn]

I have to grab some lunch. But yeah, I presume I'm alive particularly to make me a possible suspect, and because I was a possible bodyguard target. Also, looks like Julio made out like he was going to vote me last night, so killing him off and leaving me alive makes for a nice frame job and increases the suspects today.

[Autumn]

I'd love to throw someone else out of the ring, but I think it may be too chancy. The real question is, I guess, if Chubby is a wolf, who is he working with. We can work that angle and not risk killing off two villagers.

[JAG]

I'm probably not going to have time to analyze as I would like, but I'm trying to throw things out as I find them. This is a potentially interesting sequence from D2:

britrock88 votes Chubby: 2 (saldana, Chubby), 1 (DT, path12, Lathum, Zinto)
JAG votes britrock88: 2 (saldana, Chubby), 1 (DT, path12, Lathum, Zinto, britrock88)
Suicane75 votes Simbo: 2 (saldana, Chubby), 1 (DT, path12, Lathum, Zinto, britrock88, Simbo)
Chubby votes britrock88: 2 (saldana, Chubby, britrock88), 1 (DT, path12, Lathum, Zinto, Simbo)
ntndeacon unvotes path12, votes britrock88: 3 (britrock88), 2 (saldana, Chubby), 1 (DT, Lathum, Zinto, Simbo)
Simbo unvotes Chubby, votes saldana: 3 (britrock88, saldana), 1 (DT, Lathum, Zinto, Simbo)
saldana votes Simbo: 3 (britrock88, saldana), 2 (Simbo), 1 (DT, Lathum, Zinto)
bulletsponge unvotes Zinto, votes Simbo: 3 (britrock88, saldana, Simbo), 1 (DT, Lathum)

If brit's a villager it's just noise. If not, bullet's vote there looks potentially suspicious.

[JAG]

Then again, brit has encouraged voting the Simbo D1 voters, which doesn't seem like a good idea if there are two wolves in that small group. So that pairing doesn't seem overly likely.

[bulletsponge]

just caught up, damn work is interferring im my ww. brit attacked me in the ring, prob as retalitation for my votes

[Autumn]

I don't have any time to do analysis right now. But I'm going to go back to path. Clearly the wolves have been under the radar - Britrock is the only person left who has received any real votes this game, it seems like. So besides him, I think we need to get the spotlight on these quiet guys. Murray's someone who's been fairly quiet in game but aggressive in wrestling, so he's a good choice. Same with Chubby, but we need to make sure he's not getting finished before we waste votes on him. Bullet is treading that middle ground, participating enough without being super vocal.

vote path12

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't have any time to do analysis right now. But I'm going to go back to path. Clearly the wolves have been under the radar - Britrock is the only person left who has received any real votes this game, it seems like. So besides him, I think we need to get the spotlight on these quiet guys. Murray's someone who's been fairly quiet in game but aggressive in wrestling, so he's a good choice. Same with Chubby, but we need to make sure he's not getting finished before we waste votes on him. Bullet is treading that middle ground, participating enough without being super vocal.

vote path12

ive been working last 3 days so i havnt been near a puter, and you guys say all that needs to be said. im not a guy that points fingers either without some actual proof

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

ive been working last 3 days so i havnt been near a puter, and you guys say all that needs to be said. im not a guy that points fingers either without some actual proof

Man, you probably don't get lynched as much as me then. I pretty much only point fingers without proof.

[bulletsponge]

that being said, my 4 shit listers today are Brit, chubby, path and murray. i think at least 2 are wolves, depending on how many of those flea bags are in the game

Vote Brit

i cant say for certain which of them are the wolves, hell maybe all of them are

[path12]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't have any time to do analysis right now. But I'm going to go back to path. Clearly the wolves have been under the radar - Britrock is the only person left who has received any real votes this game, it seems like. So besides him, I think we need to get the spotlight on these quiet guys. Murray's someone who's been fairly quiet in game but aggressive in wrestling, so he's a good choice. Same with Chubby, but we need to make sure he's not getting finished before we waste votes on him. Bullet is treading that middle ground, participating enough without being super vocal.

vote path12

If you want to vote me fine, but I don't understand your reasoning at all here. I've publicly stated I will vote whereever JAG and Lathum go, which seems not all that wolfy, but I have the benefit of knowing my allegiance.

[path12]

Dola, my instincts are murrayyyyy and brit but again I'm making sure our CoT people have my vote whereever they go. Too important a lynch today.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by path12

If you want to vote me fine, but I don't understand your reasoning at all here. I've publicly stated I will vote whereever JAG and Lathum go, which seems not all that wolfy, but I have the benefit of knowing my allegiance.

Yeah, but I mean what else would a wolf say? I'm certainly not going to splinter the vote, but while we need to end up in one place, we need to consider the options and see the movement first.

[Chief Rum]

One hour until the fight deadline.

Disturbingly, I only have one fight action so far. Get them in, folks.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Yeah, but I mean what else would a wolf say? I'm certainly not going to splinter the vote, but while we need to end up in one place, we need to consider the options and see the movement first.

I guess my larger point was that you mention a bunch of people and then vote me -- I don't understand your reasoning on me.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Man, you probably don't get lynched as much as me then. I pretty much only point fingers without proof.

+ eleventy billion

[Autumn]

The majority of my reasoning is simply that you aren't getting mentioned, and I don't want anybody to slip by. It's mostly gut based on the way you played the fight the other day.

[path12]

I haven't gotten a sense about the finishing Chubby or not argument so for the record I am leaving him alone with the fight action I just sent in.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by path12

I guess my larger point was that you mention a bunch of people and then vote me -- I don't understand your reasoning on me.

And to be clear, I mentioned everybody who hasn't claimed a role. I hope I'm not forgetting someone.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

One hour until the fight deadline.

Disturbingly, I only have one fight action so far. Get them in, folks.

i want to attack someone, but any mistake at this juncture and the wolves win

[path12]

Originally Posted by Autumn

The majority of my reasoning is simply that you aren't getting mentioned, and I don't want anybody to slip by. It's mostly gut based on the way you played the fight the other day.

Which day? I've done the following:

Cautious attack on murrayyyyy (in-game roleplaying)
Agressive defense (got nervous after getting damage day 1)
Cautious defense (wasn't around due to IRL and defaulted)
Agressive attack on murrayyyyyy (after getting attacked by him three days straight)

What about this is odd? Especially since there is a decent chance that murrayyyyy could be a wolf?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by path12

I haven't gotten a sense about the finishing Chubby or not argument so for the record I am leaving him alone with the fight action I just sent in.

My worry is that no one is going to fight him for fear of being called a wolf and no one is going to vote him since he's almost dead.

I guess we see the fight orders before long, so we'll know whether it's worth voting him or not.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by path12

Which day? I've done the following:

Cautious attack on murrayyyyy (in-game roleplaying)
Agressive defense (got nervous after getting damage day 1)
Cautious defense (wasn't around due to IRL and defaulted)
Agressive attack on murrayyyyyy (after getting attacked by him three days straight)

What about this is odd? Especially since there is a decent chance that murrayyyyy could be a wolf?

The aggressive attack on murray matched what I expected a wolf to do that night. Not for certain, but it would be surprising to me if all of hte wolves either defended or made a finishing move. And in fact I think we know at least half of the finishers were villagers, so it would surprise me if most of the wolves defended that day when they would want to be pushing villagers to the brink.

[ntndeacon]

Mr. Perfect executes a perfect PefectPlex on The Hitman.... Who would expect that outside of the ring!

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Autumn

My worry is that no one is going to fight him for fear of being called a wolf and no one is going to vote him since he's almost dead.

I guess we see the fight orders before long, so we'll know whether it's worth voting him or not.

Of course anyone who tries to finish me will be painted a wolf, I'm a generic villager. If you really think I'm a wolf then lynch me because that eliminates the posibilty of losing 2 villagers before night actions.

If we weren't in such a close spot to losing id be pushing on you hard as the cunning I think you are. Problem is, as jag said, its not worth the risk right now.

[Autumn]

Makes no sense to lynch you if you're dying anyway. It's not like there's only one wolf, and that's just a way to bury votes.

[Chubby]

Who said finishing me today is going to work?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chubby

If we weren't in such a close spot to losing id be pushing on you hard as the cunning I think you are. Problem is, as jag said, its not worth the risk right now.

If Chubby ends up a wolf this statement will look bad but I agree with what he says here a thousand percent and my vote would be on Autumn if we were in any better of a position than we are.