08-01-2011, 06:54 AM | #1101 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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Alright, the only wolf role listed that had a power that sounds like CF is describing is Vizzini, who can steal a power for a day. There would be no reason for the wolves to target him instead of Danny (full seer) or Telle (presumed BG) unless they were confident they could kill Danny, which obviously they were, which would indicate there's no BG in the game and Telle is lying about having her power disrupted. Color me shocked about no BG in game, though I guess Miracle Max had some BG-lite powers.
But now as a point of strategy, she has the iocane powder, so even though we've caught her in a lie, there's a 50-50 chance that lynching her would just lead to a villager lynch anyway. I suppose we can have the unknowns line up on her with Narcizo and CF abstaining from the vote so even if the powder protects her, we can eliminate an unknown rather than losing a cleared player. Vote Telle |
08-01-2011, 08:06 AM | #1102 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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I'm pretty certain you're barking up the wrong tree voting Telle. A Princess Bride game without Fezzik? Really?
I've been rereading the thread. Combine the people who chose the wheelbarrow with the people who can possibly be the Count and we narrow it down to two people - Autumn and mauboy. I've been re-reading Autumn has been very active in a lot of areas but I don't see him make any mention about the wheelbarrow theory as I like to amusingly name it. Also, straight after the day three lynch Autumn gets right into Danny's face about him switching from Chief to NTN at the last moment. Naturally Autumn expected NTN to come up village and to pin something on Danny/Chief. He's also been more than unusually questioning about roles - he questioned Telle or CF's story but not particularly vigorously. If he believes in voting early and voting often surely he should have voted like JAG did? I know no-one's voting has been very good as we seem to have been hitting villagers all game long but Autumn's is a special kind of not good in my opinion. Vote Autumn My analysis has been all over this game so I concede that I'm probably not the best person to be setting the tone. But hey - Vote early and vote often. Right? |
08-01-2011, 08:13 AM | #1103 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Oh and why didn't I give the cloak to Danny?
1) My victory conditions require me to stay alive until I meet them. My own survival was paramount. If you want to make that seem like I'm in cahoots with the wolves bear in mind I didn't reveal that I had lost my seer ability in-thread until Danny revealed - despite it endangering my own life. Why do that if I solely care about meeting my main victory condition. 2) As I'm pretty certain the wolves have worked out, I used the cloak on myself before night three. (Fezzik couldn't have protected me because Jackal ascertained that he protected me night two). Because I used it before the night the wheelbarrow didn't stop it from protecting me. 3) I was planning to pretend to give the cloak to Danny but figured it would be pointless once it came out that Fezzik had protected me night two. And I thought Danny was bluffing about not having his self-protection ability used up. It possible that the wolves were told that I had used the cloak from the outset. Another area where Autumn hasn't been overly interested incidentally, whereas JAG - a similar, analytic type, has been asking questions about it. |
08-01-2011, 08:32 AM | #1104 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Yeah, I can't say I agree with Jag on the Telle vote. I haven't followed as close I I would have liked this game, but it seems we should go after the people without unchallenged reveals.
I think if it gets down to an endgame scenario we could revisit voting Telle, but for now it seems like a risky play. I'll have to look closer at Mau and Autumn. One thing that has struck me about Mau is his quick trigger this game. I remember playing with some people who would get way more in someones face as a wolf then as a villager. I'm wondering if Mau is this type of player. I could live with a Mau-Autumn run off. Getting my thoughts down because Mondays are typically busy for me dealing with all the morons who wrecked their cars over the weekend so I may have limited time today. |
08-01-2011, 08:55 AM | #1105 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Lathum and Narc, if you don't agree with JAG about Telle, where do you think he's wrong? How is it that both CF And Telle had their abilities disrupted last night? This is a sincere question because I'm just not aware what it could be. We know Vizzini can steal one of htier abilities, but not both. Can the wheelbarrow be used more than once? Are we sure it's been used.
I guess what I need is a breakdown of which abilities are claimed or assumed to have been used when. This weekend was a bit crazy and I'm not feeling on top of things as I was before. |
08-01-2011, 08:59 AM | #1106 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
I don't have a problem with this, if the numbers make a runoff including me make sense, then we'll have to do it. I have never had the wheelbarrow, I'm not sure if you're asking about something more than that when you say "wheelbarrow theory". As you can see above I've gotten hazy about some details. I definitely called out Danny on that last second switch. I thought the evidence was showing the wolves happy with a NTN vote, so I thought it was either a real bad move, a wolf move, or Danny had figured something out I had missed entirely. Turns out it was none of hte above, just another villager/villager runoff. However, I would say that if my intention was as you say above, Narc, I would have voted Danny, right? Or at least pushed people to vote Danny. I'm not sure I ever mentioned it again. I have been questioning role claims, mostly because I expect to see a fake. The wolves know a role not in the game, and so it would behoove them to claim it before they get a lot of heat, and then do some things to make the claim look legit. I don't want to lose the game because we ignored that possibility. There's no harm in making sure we're not getting hoodwinked. |
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08-01-2011, 09:01 AM | #1107 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Thing is - if you're a wolf then you know that Telle was blocked so you might highlight the descrepency as a point of interest hoping to get the information about what Crimson is saying but not vote for her because you know that an explanation is going to come. If you're a villager then you don't go digging for information - you assume, like JAG, that Telle has been caught in a lie and vote for her.
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08-01-2011, 09:09 AM | #1108 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I've got all day to vote. And I just spent the last ten minutes putting together a list of roles in game to figure out if JAG is right. So I'm not sure I agree, or appreciate, the idea that a real villager would just vote first, think later.
Confirmed Roles Inigo Westley Miracle Max Dread Pirate Roberts Prince Humperdink Vizzini Implied Roles Princess Buttercup (Prince scans for her) Count Rugen (Inigo scans for him) Fezzik (Vizzini scans for him) Not Necessary In Game Roles The Albino Grandpa The Clergyman ROUS If we assume all confirmed and implied roles are in game: 3 wolves 5 roled villagers 1 neutral 7 vanilla villagers In game now: 9 players: 1 neutral, 2 wolves, 3 roled villagers, 3 vanilla This all seems reasonable to me, in the sense that I can believe Fezzik is in the game (though still a possibility not). However, I haven't found any other reason yet for a scan or a BG not to go through. I guess i'm hesitating because no one else seems to be balking at this. Is it not obvious that one of CF or Telle is lying? |
08-01-2011, 09:11 AM | #1109 | ||
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Quote:
Quote:
I'm definitely wondering myself how two people could have been stopped without someone lying, and since CF has proven his role.. |
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08-01-2011, 09:14 AM | #1110 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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That also implies that Narcizo wasn't lying about the wheelbarrow being used on him, but I don't really see why he would.
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08-01-2011, 09:20 AM | #1111 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Like Narcizo, I am very hesitant to believe that Fezzik wouldn't be included in the game. On top of that it would be very powerful for the wolves to know that was a role not included. But I'm still struggling to see what happened last night.
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08-01-2011, 09:21 AM | #1112 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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I don't have any explanation as to how CF and I could have had our abilities blocked on the same night. It doesn't make any sense.
But do you honestly think the wolves are bumbling enough to claim to use the block power on one player and then actually use it on another? Don't you think that would be a little on the stupid side? |
08-01-2011, 09:22 AM | #1113 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Night 1
Narc scanned Pass Bhlloy killed Telle guarded self Night 2 Packerfan killed Telle guarded Narc Night 3 No kill Night 4 Telle's guard is disrupted CF's scan is disrupted Danny is killed Which night did you get wheelbarrowed, narc? And when did the Dread Pirate visit you? Night 2? please add stuff to this list guys, for my sake. I have a theory about what happened with CF and Telle, so I'm now going to drop that discussion, as it's not a theory the wolves need to hear. I'm going to look back at those possible Count Rugens. I wish we could have narrowed it down, but I still thinks it makes sense to vote from those. Wait, why did someone say Mau and I re the only ones who could have had the wheelbarrow? It seems there's quite a few who could have got it. |
08-01-2011, 09:24 AM | #1114 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
Quoted for my benefit. |
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08-01-2011, 09:24 AM | #1115 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I now need to do some work, I'll be checking in occasionally.
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08-01-2011, 09:25 AM | #1116 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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08-01-2011, 09:31 AM | #1117 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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08-01-2011, 10:02 AM | #1118 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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A possible theory is that the wolves realised that trying to take the powder would make them look suspicious so they avoided it and worked out that getting the wheelbarrow was actually more useful for them anyway and all selected it to try and get it through sheer numbers.
Anyway, Danny switched roles with me night two, after I revealed. Wheelbarrow was used on me night three. Danny self-protected night three, I used the cloak before night three (protecting me night three/day four), Danny's scan was blocked night three, presumably by Vizzini. I presumed Danny was lying about having used his self-protect because I thought Vizzini would block all his abilities, including that of self-protection. |
08-01-2011, 10:30 AM | #1119 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Thanks Narc, I should add CF's scans as well. When did CF reveal?
Night 1 Narc scanned Pass Bhlloy killed Telle guarded self --Narc reveals as Westley- Night 2 Packerfan killed Telle guarded Narc Danny switches with Narc Night 3 No kill Wheelbarrow used on Narc Danny protects self Narc uses cloak Danny's can is blocked --Telle reveals she has Iocane-- --Telle reveals as Fezzik-- Night 4 Telle's guard is disrupted CF's scan is disrupted Danny is killed |
08-01-2011, 11:36 AM | #1120 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
I don't think Mau gets like that when he's a wolf. I prefer to ignore the incident altogether and not let it influence me one way or the other. Leaving mau with very little input to the village cause. |
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08-01-2011, 12:37 PM | #1121 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Dunno how much I'm going to be able to be around tonight. Neither Telle or CF are lying. Well OK there's a remote possibility that Fezzik isn't in the game but all evidence I have says that Telle is telling the truth, and it is pretty much as you'd expect - Vizzini cancels her block so the hit on Danny can go ahead. CF isn't lying either - his blocked scan is an unfortunate by-product of my victory conditions - it isn't going to happen again (pwomise).
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08-01-2011, 12:43 PM | #1122 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Stupid Dread Pirate Roberts keeps messing with us
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08-01-2011, 12:51 PM | #1123 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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Quote:
I really don't see why you would hold out on that info Narc. But unless CF has something to contradict you, I'll concede that Telle is likely telling the truth if the wolves weren't involved in CF's scan fail. Unvote Telle |
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08-01-2011, 12:52 PM | #1124 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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JAckal has seemingly gotten little to no attention this game and I am starting to wonder why. Is there some key vote or something I am missing that elevates his level of trust?
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08-01-2011, 12:59 PM | #1125 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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vote mauboy
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08-01-2011, 01:01 PM | #1126 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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I can't, for the life of me, find the last complete vote history
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08-01-2011, 01:01 PM | #1127 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I don't know of anything re: Jackal, lathum. He's on my list of three I'll be voting today but I don't have anything other than that on him.
Narc's revelation cements a sentiment I was going to post, that I'm wary of trusting what he is posting without knowing his victory conditions or abilities. We don't know either of those truly, and have reason now to think he won't be straight with them if he does reveal. |
08-01-2011, 01:03 PM | #1128 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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I'll be back in a couple hrs for break, doesn't seem like I'll miss out on much in the meanwhile.
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08-01-2011, 01:05 PM | #1129 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Quote:
I haven't really done much. I moved my vote from bhlloy to DV D1 when the vote was tied to lead the final push on DV, and if I was a wolf I probably don't do that when I can just stay put knowing bhlloy and DV are both good. I really thought NTN was a wolf, so I'm pretty stuck now in terms of where I want to go. We can't target the neutral at this point but I'm getting annoyed with that role interfering with the game. I know that's its intended purpose, but damn. |
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08-01-2011, 01:05 PM | #1130 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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This is where our votes should be. If you do not vote in this group, I'm guessing you are a wolf.
6) The Jackal 7) mauboy1 8) Autumn 16) JAG |
08-01-2011, 01:05 PM | #1131 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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And to add to that I don't think Jackal is a wolf. That is not from any scans or anything.
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08-01-2011, 01:05 PM | #1132 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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JAG voting for telle makes me again think he's guilty.
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08-01-2011, 01:10 PM | #1133 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I agree that's a good list to vote from, CF, but it's a bit much to suggest only a wolf wouldn't. The only reason for that list is good odds to catch one of the wolves. There's no reason to limit ourselves to it if we find good clues to another wolf.
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08-01-2011, 01:12 PM | #1134 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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and just where would those clues be...got some in your pocket?
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08-01-2011, 01:12 PM | #1135 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I'm really up in the air on JAG, Jackal and Mauboy. I'm tending toward Mauboy just because we have less to go on with him - Jackal has given us that day one vote and a fair bit of analysis, JAG is posting his analysis regularly. They're more likely to give themselves away with that level of activity than Mauboy is with his. But I haven't seen anything yet that jumped out at me with any of them. A reread is in order.
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08-01-2011, 01:13 PM | #1136 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
How do we know that role is in the game? I thought only the wolves know what role, if any, aren't in the game? |
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08-01-2011, 01:14 PM | #1137 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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That was my first feeling as well.. but he really did have a good point. Based on the ruleset as we knew it, either you or I had to be lying and you had already proven your role as Duke. So he thought he had caught me in a lie and jumped on it like any villager would. |
08-01-2011, 01:14 PM | #1138 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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I'm almost thinking we're looking at a JAG/Autumn wolf team.
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08-01-2011, 01:15 PM | #1139 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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And JAG's analysis has been anything but regular. He gave analysis for one day out of 5. Well there was wheels on the bus too...
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08-01-2011, 01:16 PM | #1140 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
Both Narcizo and Danny verified that the role is in the game. It would be one very convoluted story for the wolves to make up, and they'd both have to be wolves. Add to that the fact that Narcizo gave us a wolf.. I'm inclined to believe them. |
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08-01-2011, 01:17 PM | #1141 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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08-01-2011, 01:19 PM | #1142 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
And Danny wasn't a wolf. I didn't ask to be made the Dread Pirate Roberts. Blame Danny. Or blind luck for me picking Passa and revealing. |
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08-01-2011, 01:20 PM | #1143 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
This seems an odd response from the person who was hiding the information which would have resolved the question. And also odd considering we still have eight hours to go. Rushing to a lynch has never really helped the village, but I suppose it would have helped you avoid having to give away information about your role. |
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08-01-2011, 01:21 PM | #1144 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Oh yeah.. Danny's gone, and it was thus verified that he wasn't a wolf. And as I recall, his reveal upon death referenced the whole pirate/Wesley thing.
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08-01-2011, 01:24 PM | #1145 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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I believe Telle is telling the truth that the wolves blocked her. There's been no counter to her not being Fezzik.
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08-01-2011, 01:25 PM | #1146 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Quote:
Danny claimed it, stole Narcizo's role, backed up by Narcizo, and then "achieved his win conditions" in EF's writeup. We know DPR is in the game, and we know it's Narc, unless he's exchanged roles with CF like Danny did to him. |
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08-01-2011, 01:26 PM | #1147 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Quote:
I believe it now that Narc has fessed up he was involved in screwing up your scan. We don't know what the DPR can do anymore, so I don't think anyone should look at Telle today. |
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08-01-2011, 01:28 PM | #1148 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
*ahem* Mr Vote Early and Vote Often? I'm only following the same tactic as I used on day two - get information before revealing. Well, in this case I needed to check something out with Eagle as well but still. With.holding information is not automatically an anti-village activity. Who knows, if Telle hadn't revealed that she protected me on night two I might still be pretending that I had the Holocaust Cloak. This antagonistic tone reminds me of a game not too long ago. Which game was that I wonder melodramatically to myself. Oh yes. The one where you were a baddy. Honestly I've got nothing like as strong a feeling about you this time round but still. |
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08-01-2011, 01:30 PM | #1149 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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I think I might change my name to "Mildly Annoying Pirate Roberts".
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08-01-2011, 01:34 PM | #1150 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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For the record, I suggest vote early and vote often at the beginning of the game, where we drastically need some excuse to be making votes, some content to start the game off with. It's not particularly useful five days in where we should have plenty of things to mull over in order to make a vote.
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