WW 103? - 42 Attempts (Game Over - Conspirators Win)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by saldana

to answer my own question, i guess it could have been Elser's delayed detonation too? do we have any way of knowing if the previous bomb was stauffenburgs or elsers?

I don't think we ever really decided, but conventional wisdom has us pretty sure the first one was Elser's.

Also, assuming the movie is somewhat true to real life, Stauffenberg's crew did indeed use a briefcase bomb. And this came during a meeting, which is specified in the Stauffenberg rules.

I am leaning J23 over Lathdana, but we could really use someone looking at both vote records right now to give us something to go on.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

My main issue with going with J23 is that he could have put it in a tie on Day two and killed both myself and DT, but he didn't do it. Of course, that's a perspective I alone can know for sure, since the rest of you doubtless still don't trust me. But in my mind, KWhit is a more likely wolf than J23, going on evidence so far.

But here's the kicker: KWhit was at the last meeting. J23 was not. If KWhit is Stauffenberg, why didn't he kill Hitler at the first meeting?

We should probably go back and look at Lathum/saldana again, too, although I recall I felt fairly strong that Lathum was a good guy.

I also think Maurice needs to come out now. We need to rule someone out. The sooner they came out, the more likely someone else can counter if they're not.

As for Autumn, I mostly went off of Danny picking out Autumn, because we can't afford dissension and being open to vote changes with so many wolves out there. But the same reasoning that applies for Autumn also applies for PB, and I actually felt PB was more likely to be a wolf (I am pretty sure at least one wolf was at the last meeting, and if it's not KWhit or Telle, it would be PB).

But changing things at this point would be extremely hard. we have a bare majority, so we need to be in agreement.

my choice of J23 was entirely a coin flip, if you have actual logic to go Kwhit, I am just as good with that vote.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

My main issue with going with J23 is that he could have put it in a tie on Day two and killed both myself and DT, but he didn't do it. Of course, that's a perspective I alone can know for sure, since the rest of you doubtless still don't trust me. But in my mind, KWhit is a more likely wolf than J23, going on evidence so far.

But here's the kicker: KWhit was at the last meeting. J23 was not. If KWhit is Stauffenberg, why didn't he kill Hitler at the first meeting?

We should probably go back and look at Lathum/saldana again, too, although I recall I felt fairly strong that Lathum was a good guy.

I also think Maurice needs to come out now. We need to rule someone out. The sooner they came out, the more likely someone else can counter if they're not.

As for Autumn, I mostly went off of Danny picking out Autumn, because we can't afford dissension and being open to vote changes with so many wolves out there. But the same reasoning that applies for Autumn also applies for PB, and I actually felt PB was more likely to be a wolf (I am pretty sure at least one wolf was at the last meeting, and if it's not KWhit or Telle, it would be PB).

But changing things at this point would be extremely hard. we have a bare majority, so we need to be in agreement.

Well, one explanation of your question about KWhit is that the last meeting had a lot more participants. I assume that the bigger the meeting the more wolves needed to be there to be successful. This was a meeting of four, so probably only took one.

As for J23 and the tie, maybe it was just too bold a move too early. I don't know, like I said, I didn't have a read on J23 so he was likely to be the last person I ended up looking at.

I don't know if PB is bad. But I know Danny had it wrong chasing up my tree. Frankly he's had a bad streak this game, and I know it's not in our interest this time to follow him. Chief, I thought your initial analysis was good, though I'm still not sure if you are. You had Telle, PB and someone else listed as candidates from teh first meeting, Was KWhit the other one?

[EagleFan]

A new leader is needed. The leader will not have Hitler's abilities but will have a couple of options available to them.

Please cast a vote for a player to lead the 3rd Reich through this turbulent time.

The allies have increased their pressure in France afte learning of Hitler's demise.

[PurdueBrad]

MRI results are solid, not much damage to the achilles tendon, completely torn high calf muscle. I'm in a walking boot, wahoo.

I'm moving my vote to one of three:
J23, KWhit, Lathum/Saldana

unvote Autumn

[Autumn]

J23 - put Daddy into the mix day 1, fairly early. put the clincher on Darth last vote day 2. Added Jackal as a candidate early day 3. I don't have day four votes.

[PurdueBrad]

There are only two people that I'm willing to vote for as Hitler, myself and Danny. I know I'm not getting any support so:

vote Danny as fuhrer

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by saldana

my choice of J23 was entirely a coin flip, if you have actual logic to go Kwhit, I am just as good with that vote.

Well, the KWhit thing is muddled a bit, because of his presence at the last meeting, and not voting on Day One. And that's above and beyond our little thing earlier today.

This bombing attack actually would suggest J23 is more liekly to be Stauffenberg, because I don't think he was at the last meeting, but KWhit was. If KWhit is Stauffenberg, you would presume that he would have fired off his bomb attack.

So if you're a loyal Nazi (and I still lean that way), that means J23 is most likely to be Stauffenberg, not KWhit.

Another point to consider--we might be on the right track with Autumn. If we weren't, why risk firing off that bomb? Wolves would win tonight if they just let us lynch Autumn. Why throw things into the mix like this? well, perhaps because we have a wolf up for lynch?

So we might be even best to stick with Autumn for now. After all, Danny's vote isn't going to change, so right there, the wolves are even up with us on voting if we don't go with Autumn. They would take a tie, because that kills one of each side, and then they kill another tonight. Giving them the vote advantage, since Danny, if he returns, might not be back tomorrow until after deadline.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Was KWhit the other one?

Yes, KWhit was the other one.

[Autumn]

Lathum -voted daddy early day 1, puts NTN in a 2-2-2 tie day 2, puts NTN into a three way race day 3, then switches to bullet at the end to increase his lead. I don't have day four.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

A new leader is needed. The leader will not have Hitler's abilities but will have a couple of options available to them.

Please cast a vote for a player to lead the 3rd Reich through this turbulent time.

The allies have increased their pressure in France afte learning of Hitler's demise.

Any timetable on Danny's return? We shouldn't elect someone who isn't allowed to make a decision yet, as he is hurt at the moment. We might need someone who can make an immediate decision.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

There are only two people that I'm willing to vote for as Hitler, myself and Danny. I know I'm not getting any support so:

vote Danny as fuhrer

I get this, but don't get it.

Yeah, Danny's good, but what does that matter if he's unavailable to play from the ICU? How long will he be there? I don't know. If he's out after today, then sure, he has my vote.

Until then, everyone knows I love to be the King!!

Vote Schmidty as Fuhrer

[Autumn]

Chief, I think it's clear why they bomb today. Because there was only four people in the meeting and they had a wolf there. They get a chance to kill Hitler, and get a major victory. And as someone else said, 'cause they could. If you can briefcase bomb Hitler, you probably will. Not to mention that they couldn't have known how many they would kill. Last time it was three wounded, no kills. This time we have at least one killed, one wounded. They could have maybe won it right away if Danny had died.

I suppose you're right that if my lynch was going to win the game they might not bother. But if that had been the case they would have won already, right? Or I guess you mean my lynch and the night kill. I would surmise that with HItler in the game they still have to worry about blocks, and more so. This bomb avoids the blocking abilities.

I would recommend you just continue with my lynch and settle the question, and go for the bomber tomorrow, but I don't think we have that much time.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Any timetable on Danny's return? We shouldn't elect someone who isn't allowed to make a decision yet, as he is hurt at the moment. We might need someone who can make an immediate decision.

Yeah, I presume the leader will need to do *something* tonight. Our injuries were 24 hours, last time, but who knows this time.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm going to go out a new direction if we're looking beyond the Autumn vote. I'm amazed that Lath-dana (the world's greatest wolf couple) has failed to get much suspicion this game so I'm willing to look there.

vote to lynch Lath-Dana

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, the KWhit thing is muddled a bit, because of his presence at the last meeting, and not voting on Day One. And that's above and beyond our little thing earlier today.

Again, I think it's clear about the meeting. They did not have enough wolves in the meeting, and weren't there eight or ten people at that one? I assume they have to not only have enough wolves, but have the right ones.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Another point to consider--we might be on the right track with Autumn. If we weren't, why risk firing off that bomb? Wolves would win tonight if they just let us lynch Autumn. Why throw things into the mix like this? well, perhaps because we have a wolf up for lynch?

This is a very, very good point. I still think it's likely that one of the 3 in the meeting is a wolf, but I think you're on to something.

Good gracious, I hate waffling so much. As I've said before, it's my curse in WW.

[Autumn]

KWhit - doesn't vote day one, puts Darth ahead day 2, adds NTN to the mix Day 3, I don't have day four.

[PurdueBrad]

I just figured out where all you guys got that Danny is hurt, so

unvote Danny for Fuhrer

Not sure what to do here as I've already stated my belief.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

This is a very, very good point. I still think it's likely that one of the 3 in the meeting is a wolf, but I think you're on to something.

Good gracious, I hate waffling so much. As I've said before, it's my curse in WW.

The body guard was still alive, as well as Hitler, their major win condition. I think that's enough to explain why.

Not to mention, we are assuming it was 6-4, when it could be 7-3 for all we know. Let's please not lynch me becuase we wonder why teh wolves wanted to kill Danny and Hitler, come on.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I also think Maurice needs to come out now. We need to rule someone out. The sooner they came out, the more likely someone else can counter if they're not.

I'm Emil Maurice. That's why I was at the meetings with Hitler both times. The first night, I revealed in my PM who I was and gave Hitler a chance to reveal themselves to me if he wanted (My PM went through EF). He did not (or I didn't notice it at least. Perhaps because I never looked his way in the game). I was also chosen as a bodyguard one night, though it did not give me any more information than that.

[PurdueBrad]

Assuming J23 is truthful here, that leaves KWhit or Lath-dana

[J23]

"The chance of success will be determined by the following factors: if he is invited to the meeting and the number of conspirators that are attending the meeting (the more conspirators he more help he will have in making it successful, Elser's attendance counts towards this goal)"

I am thinking that both may be conspirators, and one of them being Stauf given the success of the bombing.

[Autumn]

In that case

vote j23 as fuhrer

[PurdueBrad]

Well, since I'm willing to put my eggs in J23's basket (hehehe),

vote J23 as Fuhrer

[Autumn]

Lathum is almost always a wolf in every game I play, so picking between them I'd go with him.

VOTE LATH-DANA

[EagleFan]

March 1943

Rudolf von Gersdorff planned on being a suicide bomber to assassinate Hitler. He carried an 8 ounce C2 bomb in his pocket with a 10 minute fused detonator.

He was a tour guide as Hitler visited Zeughaus Berlin to inspect weapons which had been captured from the Soviets.

His plan was to activate the detonator as he was close to Hitler and then was going to throw himself on top of Hitler as the 10 minute mark neared.

He managed to activate the fuse while in the presence of Hitler but Hitler abruptly ended the tour and left. It is believed that he sensed something was not right as Gersdorff was acting anxiously.

He managed to remove and diffuse the bomb in a public restroom.

He was one of the few who had or participated in a plot to kill Hitler and survived the war. He would live until the age of 74 before he died in January of 1980.

[Chief Rum]

J23 was at the meeting, he is right. Okay, I am fine with J23 as the new Furher.

I agree we now need to look at Lathdana. KWhit was at both meetings. Even given the possibilities Autumn mentioned (too many attended meeting), I have to think they would have risked it with a shot at Hitler so early on (I mean, that's the BG there, on top of all Hitler's other powers).

Lathdana doesn't look as strong now as he once did, because the vote stuff I got a good vibe from him turned out to be villager-villager type stuff.

VOTE J23 as DER FUHRER

VOTE LYNCH SALDANA

[Chief Rum]

Whoops...

UNVOTE LYNCH AUTUMN
VOTE LYNCH SALDANA

We need to get on top of this now. I am probably going to have to leave soon until after deadline.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by J23

"The chance of success will be determined by the following factors: if he is invited to the meeting and the number of conspirators that are attending the meeting (the more conspirators he more help he will have in making it successful, Elser's attendance counts towards this goal)"

I am thinking that both may be conspirators, and one of them being Stauf given the success of the bombing.

I can defintiely see that.

[saldana]

i dont really know how to respond to people wanting to vote Lathdana(which is hysterical by the way)...i cant really answer for anything that Lathum said or did up to yesterday, and as far as I go, if I were stauffenburg, would I have immediately made a post saying "one of these people is stauffenburg" and included myself in that list? wolves dont put spotlives on themselves.

since no one is contradicting j23,

unvote J23 for lynch
vote J23 for Fuhrer

vote Kwhit for lynch

[saldana]

or spotlights!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by saldana

i dont really know how to respond to people wanting to vote Lathdana(which is hysterical by the way)...i cant really answer for anything that Lathum said or did up to yesterday, and as far as I go, if I were stauffenburg, would I have immediately made a post saying "one of these people is stauffenburg" and included myself in that list? wolves dont put spotlives on themselves.

since no one is contradicting j23,

unvote J23 for lynch
vote J23 for Fuhrer

vote Kwhit for lynch

It's not an easy decision, sal. Because of the switch, it has been harder than usual to read Lathum (and now yourself as a result). I think without the previous meeting, I would go with KWhit over you/Lathum based on other evidence, but the fact you weren't at the last meeting and you were at this one is a compelling fact, IMO.

[Chief Rum]

I still think it's likely the wolves will all switch at 7 p.m. (deadline) to force a tie. They have the ability now, with Danny unable to change his vote from Autumn. The only way to stop that from happening is to lynch Autumn. Not an easy decision.

[Autumn]

I can see that, Saldana. And I don't understand Chief's stubbornness about KWhit. It seems perfectly clear why he could have been at the other meeting and not blow it up. There were 8 or 10 and presumably only one wolf, clearly that wouldn't be enough to have the sort of results they got tonight.

I have to put my kid to bed, hopefully I'll be back before deadline.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I can see that, Saldana. And I don't understand Chief's stubbornness about KWhit. It seems perfectly clear why he could have been at the other meeting and not blow it up. There were 8 or 10 and presumably only one wolf, clearly that wouldn't be enough to have the sort of results they got tonight.

I have to put my kid to bed, hopefully I'll be back before deadline.

Stubbornness in what way? Neither of us have enough information to determine why KWhit==Stauffenberg did not lead to a bomb going off. Maybe you're right and he couldn't without more conspirator numbers; or maybe they decided not to then for who knows what reason; or maybe I am right, and KWhit is not Stauffenberg. I'm not sure why you have to be right, and I have to be wrong on this one.

Fact is, we don't really have a way yet to tell these two apart--except that KWhit was in that first one and a bomb did not go off. With everything else it might not be much, but all things even, isn't that the sorta thing that is the difference maker?

In any case, sorry, saldana, but I think I am going to have to stick with this, and I have to leave in minutes here.

[Schmidty]

Not sure what to do. Lathdana or KWhit? I see both sides.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Stubbornness in what way? Neither of us have enough information to determine why KWhit==Stauffenberg did not lead to a bomb going off. Maybe you're right and he couldn't without more conspirator numbers; or maybe they decided not to then for who knows what reason; or maybe I am right, and KWhit is not Stauffenberg. I'm not sure why you have to be right, and I have to be wrong on this one.

Fact is, we don't really have a way yet to tell these two apart--except that KWhit was in that first one and a bomb did not go off. With everything else it might not be much, but all things even, isn't that the sorta thing that is the difference maker?

In any case, sorry, saldana, but I think I am going to have to stick with this, and I have to leave in minutes here.

I'm not at all saying I"m right, notice I'm currently voting for Saldana.

I'm saying there seems to be at least one perfectly reasonable reason why that could be (kwhit being bad), so it doesn't seem like much of a reason to decide the vote on, that's all.

[Autumn]

Does anyone have a vote count?

And EF, is that right, that Danny's vote will count if he's in the ICU?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I don;t think CR reacts like he did against KWhit if he's a wolf.

That had occurred to me as well.

[Autumn]

I think maybe it's 3-3-1-1-1, Me, Saldana, Chief, Jackal, KWhit, but that seems off.

[KWhit]

Jeez. Just caught up.

Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of time now and need to switch my vote before deadline. I was at the first meeting (which was successful) and I don't believe a wolf would ever pass up the opportunity to blow up Hitler. It should be obvious that I am unlikely to be the bomber. It makes sense that the bomber was at meeting 2 but not at meeting 1.

Unvote Chief Rum for lynch
Vote J23 for fuhrer
Vote Saldana for Lynch

[Autumn]

If so, I don't like that tie. And I like Saldana's point, that he wouldn't have brought up "Hey, the bomber must be in this meeting" if he was the bomber. It's better if it's just me gone than two villagers.

UNVOTE SALDANA

[Autumn]

oops, well that was a moot point

[J23]

unvote Jackal
vote Saldana

I'll try to stick around until deadline to move if necessary. I would have probably leaned towards KWhit, but with what CR brought up about Lathum not being at the last meeting, I'm ok with going w/ Lathdana.

Given the success of the bombing, I would bet they're both wolves.

[Autumn]

All right, with the tie gone I will probably move back then. I don't exactly buy CR's reasoning but it's probably a 50/50 guess. Or maybe J23's right, and it's a 100/100 guess ;-)

[EagleFan]

As of post 1080:

Autumn 3 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078)
saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), Chief Rum (1129), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145)
KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

Yet to vote: Schmidty, Autumn

[EagleFan]

Danny's vote still counts as it was issued before he was place in the ICU, as does Abe's as he was killed after voting and he was Hitler so you will keep his vote in place to honor him.

[Schmidty]

Having comp problems. I'm getting that stupid "Your computer is infected" thing that won't go away. I have no idea how it got there since I never do anything weird and have AntiVir, Adaware, spybot, etc.

Anyway. I'm using Chrome for a bit. One second

[Autumn]

oh wow, I didn't realize Abe's vote was going to count still.

I'm probably too late now, my mohter in law is here and I had to go help her. grr.