Werewolf CXXV - Vegas, Baby - VILLAGERS WIN

[mckerney]

I had saldana pegged as the last member of the Lupinos after DT went down last night and would be happy to vote on him tonight, but I'd like to consider something else for now. With one member of the Lupinos left there probably isn't much saldana can do to hurt us and its probably best to go after the other family with 3 members left. With that in mind I'm going with the someone who I don't have trust in that seems like they're part of the other family.

vote ntndeacon

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Do you mind saying how much it was the first time?

it was 650 the first time, and then 283 the second, so i actually have a whopping 67 dollars left...i said i had none left because autumn sent me two PMs about last night and changed the amount in the second one, which i didnt know i had...the thief can confirm this

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

FYI, the other people who I have absolutely no idea what they spent money on:

tyketime
mckerney
cougarfreak

I haven't won any bids yet. Haven't won any bets either, so I haven't had any opportunity to go for anything I've really wanted.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by saldana

it was 650 the first time, and then 283 the second, so i actually have a whopping 67 dollars left...i said i had none left because autumn sent me two PMs about last night and changed the amount in the second one, which i didnt know i had...the thief can confirm this

Thanks, that helps. The good news is that if you're telling the truth, the thief spent a lot of money on Lefty, and didn't get much out of it!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I haven't won any bids yet. Haven't won any bets either, so I haven't had any opportunity to go for anything I've really wanted.

Thanks, that helps, too. Can I ask what you really wanted?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I haven't won any bids yet. Haven't won any bets either, so I haven't had any opportunity to go for anything I've really wanted.

Which also means whoever sent the escort to me again last night thanks, but I still wasn't doing anything.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

No, I figured it was about time to use the super cool option. I'm not entirely sure of the real value of the betting information at this point, in any case.

No thoughts worth sharing at this time about the super cool option results.

Hey Chief, a lot seems to have changed since you posted this last night. Any more thoughts?

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by saldana

it was 650 the first time, and then 283 the second, so i actually have a whopping 67 dollars left...i said i had none left because autumn sent me two PMs about last night and changed the amount in the second one, which i didnt know i had...the thief can confirm this

Hmmm - very specific numbers which could easily be confirmed. Perhaps...

But the problem with numbers is that they are exact. So if you started out with $1000, and were robbed for $650 the first time, that would be 65% of your money. If you were taken for $283 of the $350 the second time, that would be around 80%. So if we have a mechanic in the game that takes money from people, I would expect the "rule" to be set at the beginning. Of course, there could be a variance in it. We are talking Lefty after all, but I'm more inclined to think a similar percentage would be grabbed each time. I dunno... something wolfy about this to me.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

FYI, the other people who I have absolutely no idea what they spent money on:

tyketime
mckerney
cougarfreak

Hey tyketime, you've been in and out, but still haven't replied to this. Is there anything you want to share?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I had saldana pegged as the last member of the Lupinos after DT went down last night and would be happy to vote on him tonight, but I'd like to consider something else for now. With one member of the Lupinos left there probably isn't much saldana can do to hurt us and its probably best to go after the other family with 3 members left. With that in mind I'm going with the someone who I don't have trust in that seems like they're part of the other family.

vote ntndeacon

2 questions:

1. What tipped you off about sal last night?
2. Why ntn vs others like cougarfreak, Zinto, Tyketime?

Funny you mention leaving who is likely the last member of Lupini alive while searching for the other family, as I was wondering about that idea as well, since the two families can't really coordinate their efforts vs the village. That said, we have to kill all of them and he can still be disruptive since their primary goal is elimination of all villagers. I think it's safest to take a sure wolf out and work on nailing family 2 starting tomorrow, unless someone fairly well trusted comes out with a wolf scan from the other family.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Thanks, that helps, too. Can I ask what you really wanted?

If I had had the money to win anything I would have preferred the PI or body guard. Also would have gone after the escort agency last night after learning what it did, but felt like we had the night kill bid locked up so the wolves wouldn't have it and I didn't need to worry. I didn't really have a good idea what a lot of the services did so I didn't want to go after them and end up broke without much of a benefit.

[Passacaglia]

Has anyone else had money stolen from them?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by JAG

2 questions:

1. What tipped you off about sal last night?
2. Why ntn vs others like cougarfreak, Zinto, Tyketime?

Funny you mention leaving who is likely the last member of Lupini alive while searching for the other family, as I was wondering about that idea as well, since the two families can't really coordinate their efforts vs the village. That said, we have to kill all of them and he can still be disruptive since their primary goal is elimination of all villagers. I think it's safest to take a sure wolf out and work on nailing family 2 starting tomorrow, unless someone fairly well trusted comes out with a wolf scan from the other family.

Saldanas voting and the reasoning he gave for his votes the last couple days has been highly suspicious. I believe that he tried to go after hoops while hoops was on DT to discredit him, then the two of them killed hoops the next night. Then it seemed like he only jumped onto DT last night once it seemed inevitable.

As far as ntn over other candidates, he and mau have been trying way to hard to vouch for each other, while I haven't seen anyone else verify that they are villagers. Right now I'm convinced those two are part of the second family, but I'm unsure who the third member is though.

If it comes down to me needing to change my vote to make sure we get a wolf I'll gladly do it. For now I want to make the case for going after the second family though and see if anyone else will get on board with it.

[Chief Rum]

mckerney, do you have any thoughts on tyketime, cougarfreak or Zinto, other than that you suspected sal more than them?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

mckerney, do you have any thoughts on tyketime, cougarfreak or Zinto, other than that you suspected sal more than them?

Out of those three I'm really not sure. They've all played it pretty under the radar. I certainly don't feel confident enough on any of them to vote for one when we can be sure we'd get a wolf with saldana. If I had to pick one, tyketime was on my radar a bit earlier so I'd have him slightly above the others, but again it's not nearly strong enough to go on without looking into at this point.

[mauchow]

Its crazy to see how quickly things change. It looked as we had no chance aginst the Mafia for a few days but now that has changed.

Do we think there or 4,5, or 6 total Mafia? My vote will either be going to saldana or mckerney it looks like. I like our chances more with sal today and then evaluate everything again tomorrow. I wish I could say I bought a service and contribute to the hunt but I got nothing today.

[Passacaglia]

We've had 5+ players in this thread most of the morning, but very few posts. Is everyone just waiting for everyone else to say stuff?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Its crazy to see how quickly things change. It looked as we had no chance aginst the Mafia for a few days but now that has changed.

Do we think there or 4,5, or 6 total Mafia? My vote will either be going to saldana or mckerney it looks like. I like our chances more with sal today and then evaluate everything again tomorrow. I wish I could say I bought a service and contribute to the hunt but I got nothing today.

Probably 6. I think if we'd eliminated the Lupino family there would've been some flavor in the post, but not sure.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

We've had 5+ players in this thread most of the morning, but very few posts. Is everyone just waiting for everyone else to say stuff?

I know I've been mulling things over as per the JAG info and deciding if I want to bet on sal or go after someone UTR like Zinto in an attempt to hit the other family, if sal is indeed the last member of the Lupino.

I'm also busy with job apps and about to exercise! But can't speak for others.

[ntndeacon]

Well I kinda was hoping to hear from the person who got Mario. I am kinda hoping at this point it was Darth...(I don't believe he has been in the thread yet today) In terms of offing the last Lupino or the first of the vampire one , my thought is as long as we get a wolf I am happy.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Well I kinda was hoping to hear from the person who got Mario. I am kinda hoping at this point it was Darth...(I don't believe he has been in the thread yet today) In terms of offing the last Lupino or the first of the vampire one , my thought is as long as we get a wolf I am happy.

Yeah, I haven't seen Darth or cougar in here. I'm still waiting to hear what cougar and tyke have spent money on -- tyke has been in here and not answered yet, but cougar just hasn't been around.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by JAG

Assuming a villager won Lefty last night, I would be verycurious to know the outcome.

Originally Posted by JAG

Well, if a wolf won it, I don't expect they would reveal it. But I received some information that could potentially clear a villager and the data from it would be helpful in doing so.

Unvote nightfall

Just so I don't have to get a bid in early.

Originally Posted by saldana

it was 650 the first time, and then 283 the second, so i actually have a whopping 67 dollars left...i said i had none left because autumn sent me two PMs about last night and changed the amount in the second one, which i didnt know i had...the thief can confirm this

Thoughts, JAG? We don't have the person who hired Lefty, but we do have the victim. How does that mesh with the information you received?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Thoughts, JAG? We don't have the person who hired Lefty, but we do have the victim. How does that mesh with the information you received?

Seeing that I have guaranteed information that Saldana is a wolf, I am not inclined to trust anything he says. I am still waiting to hear from a few others, otherwise I'm content to go forward with lynching a known wolf and leave other stuff for tomorrow (assuming I would be able to change my vote anyway, as I was unaware of the etiquette of using nightfall).

[mauchow]

vote mckerney

I'm sticking with my gut feeling. Hisgame has changed so much since he's been a target and he is scrambling...much like saldana who I will be happy to rid of tomorrow.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by JAG

Seeing that I have guaranteed information that Saldana is a wolf, I am not inclined to trust anything he says. I am still waiting to hear from a few others, otherwise I'm content to go forward with lynching a known wolf and leave other stuff for tomorrow (assuming I would be able to change my vote anyway, as I was unaware of the etiquette of using nightfall).

I don't see how it would help him to lie about it at this point. All it can do is make someone else point at him and call him a liar. Unless he bid on it himself, and didn't use it, just so he could claim he was stolen from? I see that as extremely unlikely. I'm not saying that means he's a villager, but I see no reason to doubt that. I mean, you're the one who asked about it and received the information -- is this line here just because you want to keep your thoughts on it to yourself?

[Chief Rum]

I have plenty to say in a little bit here, but my boss is on my ass about getting a file done. So doing that first, and then I will come here and post some things.

I had Mario and Lefty last night.

[Passacaglia]

What a tease!

[JAG]

All I'm saying is, I bought the NK, I used it on Saldana, Knuckles refused to do the deed because he said sal was a mobster and he didn't want to get tangled up with them. So I know he's a wolf, as I had suspected. Why is he lying? I don't know, he's trying to confuse matters to escape a lynch probably. Why wouldn't he have come out with the information before? Tyke's point about the mechanic being very odd as stated by sal is a good question as well.

So unless I have rock solid info about another wolf, and at this point we don't, then I want to vote for the sure wolf. We have probably another 3 to kill as it is. I will say that the reluctance of mckerney, Tyketime, and cougarfreak to come out with what they've bid on to this point looks very incriminating since three other known wolves shared that same reluctance.

[ntndeacon]

that is good news though.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I have plenty to say in a little bit here, but my boss is on my ass about getting a file done. So doing that first, and then I will come here and post some things.

I had Mario and Lefty last night.

Sounds like rock solid info may be forthcoming.

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 1130

saldana (2) - JAG 1065, zinto 1072
JAG (1) - Saldana 1070
mckerney (1) - mauboy1 1124

I will accept nightfall votes in this game, but people should only vote nightfall if they've got their bids in as well.

[Autumn]

Realizing that we have a lot of new and newish players in the game, and since I didn't mention it in the rules, I'll explain Nightfall briefly.

On a voting day you can, along with your vote, vote Nightfall. This basically means that you're content with the deadline happening earlier, the vote being processed without further discussion. If everyone in the game votes Nightfall, the day is considered over at that point and the vote is processed. It's sometimes used in games when people feel so sure about a vote that they would rather move ahead to the next day rather than spend a day waiting for the results.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Autumn

The services you can bid on today are:

Tank Wallace, Professional Bodyguard - hire Tank for protection
Mario Juarez, Private Investigator - Mario will get the dirt on anyone you want
Cassie's Escort Agency - there's lots of things to do in Vegas at night
Speedeez Courier Service - you need to send a message, Speedeez will get it there
Kalustian Betting Parlor - This bookie's got his fingers in every bet in town

Black Market Services -

"Crazy Legs" Louie - Maybe he's not as professional as Knuckles was, but he'll do any hit
Bill Werthers, crooked cop - Not every cop in Vegas wears a white hat. This one can get you out of trouble, or someone else in it.

Bumped to the current page.

[Passacaglia]

Thanks, Autumn. That gives us another thing to talk about. I was thinking that with the addition of the crooked cop, the Private Investigator is pretty much worthless (unless there's no bid on him).

Also, Knuckles is gone, replaced by a black market service that's similar. As tyketime said, this seems important given JAG's reveal. So Knuckles was a guy that villagers could hire, but he couldn't kill mobsters (according to JAG). Now we have a guy that villagers can't hire. I'm not sure yet how that sits.

[Chief Rum]

Okay, here it is. Now I am off tolunch, so I'll make this quick.

I investigated mckerney with Mario last night. He came up with pointy teeth and an excess amount of fur. Family: Vampiri. So we now have one from the other side.

I sent Lefty to saldana, figuring he might be the bag man for the wolves, if he was a wolf, and a lot of money might be evidence of that. He didn't have a lot, though. I got exactly what sal said, $283. It's meta-gamey, but I can even confirm the changing amounts, Autumn had to send me a correction (although, interestingly enough, the correction was only $50, not the $67 sal claims).

In any case, sal is correct about being robbed last night and what he lost.

I still think he's a wolf, though, based on JAG's hints that he knew Lefty had made a visit to sal last night. Or at least that is what I gathered from his hint before. JAG to confirm. There is no way for JAG to know that by any service I am aware of, except for his explanation of what happened with Knuckles. Given I already think he's in a good spot for trust, I don't doubt sal is indeed a wolf, and probably the last Lupino.

All that said, I highly recommend we take out mckerney today. We don't know the whole two family dynamic, and taking out sal probably takes out Lupino. Plus, we don't have an active scan of sal by Mario, but we do have one of mckerney (assuming you think the Knuckles "scan" seems odd).

If we take out sal tomorrow, at least we can take tonight to check him out, or to check out JAG. But mckerney is a without a doubt wolf, and from the other family.

VOTE MCKERNEY

[Zinto]

I am fine with going McKerney tonight if people believe that is the correct decision.

[Zinto]

Alright I am going out for a couple hours but after giving it some thought I am changing my vote.

Unvote Saldana
Vote McKerney

[mckerney]

I'm still kind of hoping we can all reconsider and vote on ntn.

[JAG]

Well done.

Unvote saldana
Vote mckerney

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I sent Lefty to saldana, figuring he might be the bag man for the wolves, if he was a wolf, and a lot of money might be evidence of that. He didn't have a lot, though. I got exactly what sal said, $283. It's meta-gamey, but I can even confirm the changing amounts, Autumn had to send me a correction (although, interestingly enough, the correction was only $50, not the $67 sal claims).

In any case, sal is correct about being robbed last night and what he lost.

I still think he's a wolf, though, based on JAG's hints that he knew Lefty had made a visit to sal last night. Or at least that is what I gathered from his hint before. JAG to confirm. There is no way for JAG to know that by any service I am aware of, except for his explanation of what happened with Knuckles. Given I already think he's in a good spot for trust, I don't doubt sal is indeed a wolf, and probably the last Lupino.VOTE MCKERNEY

For what it's worth, the Knuckles thing said nothing about Lefty. My allusion to that was regarding a different matter, which, to the person who sent it to me, still doesn't look very good for that person in question at this point.

[The Jackal]

Good work, Chief.

VOTE MCKERNEY

[saldana]

unvote JAG
vote mckerney

vote nightfall

[tyketime]

For the 3rd day in a row...

VOTE MCKERNEY

Sheesh... will ya believe me now?

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 1143

mckerney (7) - mauboy1 1124, chief rum 1135, Zinto 1137, JAG 1139, the jackal 1141, saldana 1142, tyketime 1143

nightfall - saldana

[The Jackal]

I'm willing to vote nightfall, suppose we could lynch saldana before 9 also, but that would be a lot of work for Autumn processing double the amount of bids/services and such. Plus some people might not be around to vote nightfall or get their services in by a nightfall deadline, and then again by 9. So I think we can be patient and let the day run its course, even if it means there likely won't be much discussion.

[The Jackal]

Excluding mckerney, the remaining players:

4. Saldana - claimed wolf by JAG after failed NK

Scanners:
2. JAG - cleared CR, claimed NK revealing saldana as wolf
6. The Jackal - cleared DV
10. Chief Rum - scanned mckerney as wolf
19. ntndeacon - cleared mau

Scanees:
9. Darth Vilus - cleared by jackal
10. Chief Rum - cleared by JAG
11. Mauboy1 - cleared by ntn

And the rest:

7. Zinto
12. Passacaglia
15. Tyketime
18. cougarfreak

So I would hope someone from that bottom group gets scanned by a villager tonight. That is where we'll focus moving forwards. I think the scanees should be the people with the most trust - after that bottom group, if we think we've got all the wolves out of it and there's some left - we have to look at me, JAG, ntn as being wolves that cleared a villager. Just to setup things after mckerney, and presumably saldana. But we'll see what happens in the night phase.

[The Jackal]

So after this lynch, there will be 11 of us left. 10 if the NK goes through. Say we lynch saldana and he's a wolf, and another NK, that's 8 left. Likely puts us at 6 villagers and 2 wolves, assuming there are no blocks in the next two nights. Let's finish up strong.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yeah, I haven't seen Darth or cougar in here. I'm still waiting to hear what cougar and tyke have spent money on -- tyke has been in here and not answered yet, but cougar just hasn't been around.

Sorry, I don't have access in my classroom at school, just got home. I'm catching up.

[ntndeacon]

vote mckerney

[cougarfreak]

So, from the summary, it looks like Chief scanned McKerney as a wolf, and he's been cleared, so it seems like a no brainer to me today.

vote mckerney