WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Me neither. I'm on GE as being the cunning, but if bhlloy is the cunning, I don't see the wolves killing the seer. They'd want to keep DV around so he could tell everyone that he scanned bhlloy.

and allow him to continue scanning people?

doubtful...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Lathum, can you explain why you think the wolves would kill DV is they knew he scanned the cunning?

as a wolf when you learn who the seer is you kill him. ASAP.

[hoopsguy]

OK, took some time to recap all the voting stuff from Day 1. I've included both votes and notes in this, along with post numbers for people to head back and verify this themselves, see if there are any important posts that I may not have captured.

164 Autumn votes JAG 1-0
169 PF votes Mauboy 1-1 JAG/Mau
170 Lathum votes Rum 1-1-1 JAG/Mau/Rum
172 Mau votes Rum 2-1-1 Rum over JAG/Mau
175 Danny votes JAG 2-2-1 Rum/JAG over Mau
178 JAG votes Autumn 2-2-1-1 Rum/JAG over Mau/Autumn
181 bhl votes Mau 2-2-2-1 Rum/JAG/Mau over Autumn
* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *
185 MartinD votes Mau 3-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
186 Rum votes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
187 mck votes Mau 5-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
189 Rum unvotes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
193 Danny unvotes JAG, votes NTN 4-2-1-1-1 Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG/NTN
194 Jackal votes NTN 4-2-2-1-1 Mau over Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
200 Hoops votes NTN 4-3-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
205 Zinto votes Chief 4-3-3-1-1 Mau over NTN/Rum over Autumn/JAG


Note #1 - MartinD is almost certainly not popular with his wolf teammates after sending the "wolf" PM to Saldana and putting a wolf out in front of votes.

Note #2 -Mau votes for Chief early (first to two votes)

Note #3 - Early votes on Mau = PF, bhl, Rum, mck (Rum pulls his fairly quickly)

Note #4 - Danny offers NTN as a new candidate, is followed by two villagers (Jackal + me, although I'm not revealed as one yet)

Note #5 - Zinto puts the vote on Chief instead of Mau or NTN, who are the two leaders. Says in #205 he wants 3 candidates.

206 NTN votes Chief 4-4-3-1-1 Mau/Rum over NTN over Autumn/JAG
212 Pass votes NTN 4-4-4-1-1 Mau/Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
213 Chief votes NTN 5-4-4-1-1 NTN over Mau/Rum over Autumn/JAG
219 Crimson votes Mau 5-5-4-1-1 NTN/Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG
222 NTN unvotes Chief, votes Mau 6-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG

Note #6 - this looks good for NTN, in my mind. If he was a wolf with Mau then he would likely have held his vote in the 5-5-4 setup with hopes to get some movement on Chief. But instead he pushes Mau into lead and CR 3 back. Seems more villager survival instinct than conceding wolf in my mind, barring crazy 3 wolf run-off scenario (have to almost entirely discount getting this lucky).

224 - DV votes Mau. 7-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
226 - Cougar votes Mau 8-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
234 - Mau unvotes Chief, votes NTN 8-6-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
235 - GE votes NTN, 8-7-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
237 - Saldana votes NTN, 8-8-2-1-1 Mau/NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG


Note #7 - good thing Saldana + GE have some checks in the good book (Sal gave us wolf, GE seer scanned, based on 2nd hand info) with these votes

240 - Lathum unvotes Rum, votes NTN 9-8-1-1-1 NTN over Mau over Autumn/JAG/Rum
242 - Chief unvotes NTN, votes Mau 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/JAG/Rum

Note #8 - big swing vote here by Chief, assuming that NTN = villager. About 2 hours and 15 minutes to deadline here.

* 251 - Mauboy's "if only I could see the future" post with 1 hour 40 minutes until lynch deadline *
258 - Autumn unvotes JAG, votes Mau 10-8-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum
* 262 - I ask if people missed post #251, why no one is reacting to this. 1 hour 10 minutes until lynch deadline *
264 - NTN unvotes Mau, votes JAG 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG
277 - Danny unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-7-1-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG/Crimson
279 - Mau unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-6-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/JAG
280 - Rum unvotes Mau, votes JAG 8-6-2-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
290 - Autumn unvotes Mau 7-6-2-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
291 - Autumn votes JAG 7-6-3-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum
301 - Saldana unvotes NTN, votes MartinD 7-5-3-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/MartinD
* 301 is the post where Saldana reveals that MartinD forwarded his PM with info on being a wolf. 25 minutes before deadline. *
304 - Danny changes vote to MartinD
305 - Autumn changes vote to MartinD
315 - mck changes vote to MartinD
318 - PF changes vote to MartinD
322 - DV changes vote to MartinD
327 - Cougar changes vote to MartinD
330 - Mau changes vote to MartinD
337 - NTN changes vote to MartinD
340 - Lathum changes vote to MartinD

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

as a wolf when you learn who the seer is you kill him. ASAP.

I see your point about getting more reveals. I guess I feel like I'd rather wait for DV to reveal his incorrect info.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by JAG

I can confirm (and mckerney can back me up on this) that we didn't get any special message / reward for being in first at the end of the D2 segment. I presume the same was true for you and CR? (and Lathum/Jackal can chime in for D1). So I don't think it's race-related unless it's wolf-only and that would seem unbalancing. That doesn't leave me with much since I don't remember reading about hidden roles or abilities this game.

I did not receive anything for the stage that we won yesterday. Both D2 and D3 were elimination stages, so I wonder if it might have been different on D1? But that wouldn't make sense either as Jackal and Lathum have both been shown as villagers.

So squash that idea ...

[Passacaglia]

hoops, why did you leave out the fact that CR unvoted mau (at least, according to Autumn's post on page 21)?

[EagleFan]

To keep things from getting off track I will reveal a little of what happened. It has been noted that the game seemed to have some rules stacked against the wolves. I added a couple extras for the wolves that were designed to help even things out a little. This was all decided upon before the game began (not related to anyone questioning the rules).

A condition was met which unlocked an ability for them. I will not say what the condition was at this time (after the game I will) or when that was unlocked (also after the game I will).

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Note #1 - MartinD is almost certainly not popular with his wolf teammates after sending the "wolf" PM to Saldana and putting a wolf out in front of votes.

If there was an award for 'Understatement of the Game', I suspect that we have a winner...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

hoops, why did you leave out the fact that CR unvoted mau (at least, according to Autumn's post on page 21)?

Which one? He has them both. Post 189 and Post 280 in hoops' list (which I presume is correct, I don't remember my post #s).

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I did not receive anything for the stage that we won yesterday. Both D2 and D3 were elimination stages, so I wonder if it might have been different on D1? But that wouldn't make sense either as Jackal and Lathum have both been shown as villagers.

So squash that idea ...

I can back up JAG on us not receiving anything.

One thing I'm wondering about that I haven't seen covered, was the injury and made DV fall back in the race the result of a random roll of bad luck, or someone using aggression on him? If it's a team of two wolves in the race we wouldn't find out, but is anyone willing to come forward that their team used aggression, perhaps at suggestion of a teammate to stay ahead of DVs team?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Which one? He has them both. Post 189 and Post 280 in hoops' list (which I presume is correct, I don't remember my post #s).

Yeah, I see it now. He called you "Rum" and that threw me off.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Lathum

as a wolf when you learn who the seer is you kill him. ASAP.

Yes, that seems obvious to me as well. Very obvious. They have to kill him, he's a safe bet to keep getting better and better as the game goes on, does he not? And the seer "scans" one person a night, is that right?

[cougarfreak]

Ok, I have a state rules meeting for Tennis at 7:00 tonight, and the place is about 45 minutes to an hour from my house. I really don't have much to go on today, so I'm going to throw a vote out there.....and I hope I have time to get home, and check out what the hell is going on. Lathum was killed by the wolves today, but his vote still counts, and he still talks? This is weird. So I'm not putting a lot of stock in my vote, and if some run comes around, and I don't switch off later, don't read much into it, as in I'm trying to hide, or dumb for not switching. Seems to tell us the most.

votentndeacon

[Passacaglia]

Talent Specialist - The talent specialist has an eye for what someone may be able todo or how they may appeal to the masses. Each night the Talent Specialist may research one player and learn if they are truly in it to win it (seer).

Here's the description of the seer from the first post. Yes, one scan per night.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

To keep things from getting off track I will reveal a little of what happened. It has been noted that the game seemed to have some rules stacked against the wolves. I added a couple extras for the wolves that were designed to help even things out a little. This was all decided upon before the game began (not related to anyone questioning the rules).

A condition was met which unlocked an ability for them. I will not say what the condition was at this time (after the game I will) or when that was unlocked (also after the game I will).

for the record I haven't made any comments to EF, but I will say when a hidden mechanic pops up in a game it really pisses me off, especially when there is nothing in the rules about hidden mechanics.

I play WW like chess and try to think 3 moves ahead. It frustrates me when something happens to derail that, especially if I didn't know there was a possibility that could even happen.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

To keep things from getting off track I will reveal a little of what happened. It has been noted that the game seemed to have some rules stacked against the wolves. I added a couple extras for the wolves that were designed to help even things out a little. This was all decided upon before the game began (not related to anyone questioning the rules).

A condition was met which unlocked an ability for them. I will not say what the condition was at this time (after the game I will) or when that was unlocked (also after the game I will).

MULTIBALL! ALL BALLS UNLOCKED!

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by MartinD

If there was an award for 'Understatement of the Game', I suspect that we have a winner...

Martin, this is full of awesome.

[Danny]

I lean towards bh and ntn being villagers based on what I've seen posted so its unfortunate that seems where the votes are headed at this point

[CrimsonFox]

ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1021) GoldenEagle (1091) cougarfreak (1113)
Chief Rum 1 - Passacaglia (1042)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)
Zinto 1 - Autumn (1061) bhlloy (1092)

[CrimsonFox]

ntndeacon 3 - PackerFanatic (1021) GoldenEagle (1091) cougarfreak (1113)
Chief Rum 1 - Passacaglia (1042)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)
Zinto 2 - Autumn (1061) bhlloy (1092)

I can't count past 1 it seems...

[Danny]

vote zinto

I don't like the other options out there and its getting a.bit late to introduce a 5th candidate. Again though, I will relook at some things when I get home

[EagleFan]

As of post 1121:

ntndeacon 3 - PackerFanatic (1021), GoldenEagle (1091), cougarfreak (1113)
Zinto 3 - Autumn (1061), bhlloy (1092), Danny (1121)
Chief Rum 1 - Passacaglia (1042)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)

[The Jackal]

The wolves may have gotten us out of one portion of the game, but rest assured, Lathum and I will be leaving them (and the rest of you) in our dust as we island and continent hop.

[Zinto]

This is a total self preservation vote and I am open to anything at this point but for now...

Vote NTN

[Danny]

Btw, earlier I said lathum living through night 2 made me think there wasn't a hoops autumn type wolf. I take that back. The wolves likely knew they were going to have this extra kill option and figured they might as well go seer hunting

[CrimsonFox]

this does make sense.

[EagleFan]

Will be offline for a bit. Will do my best to get things run on time tonight but things just got a little crazy at home.

[saldana]

i'm sorry for being gone all day...my job is freaking insane right now and i dont have time to stay caught up.

i love the fact that i come home to multiple pages to read...reminds me of the good ol' days!

this game is alot harder to keep up with because i am having a hard time remembering who is "dead" and who isnt since everyone can still post,but of all the analysis over the votes i like this argument the most

vote Chief Rum

[The Jackal]

You can always check the front page to see who is dead, sal.

[CrimsonFox]

ntndeacon 4 - PackerFanatic (1021), GoldenEagle (1091), cougarfreak (1113) Zinto (1124)
Zinto 3 - Autumn (1061), bhlloy (1092), Danny (1121)
Chief Rum 2 - Passacaglia (1042) saldana (1128)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)

[Danny]

Yes, a lot of activity! Especially considering two of the days we had runaway votes. Werewolf is back baby!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by saldana

i'm sorry for being gone all day...my job is freaking insane right now and i dont have time to stay caught up.

i love the fact that i come home to multiple pages to read...reminds me of the good ol' days!

this game is alot harder to keep up with because i am having a hard time remembering who is "dead" and who isnt since everyone can still post,but of all the analysis over the votes i like this argument the most

vote Chief Rum

Despite the fact that I was on mau for much of that day? I made a key vote moving over from mau and ntn the second time around, and only moved off of him because of his "reveal". I only moved off of him the first time because of that ridiculous run from out of nowhere. Anyone reading back on that will clearly see that.

I'm far from cleared, but I think there are better candidates for this vote right now.

[CrimsonFox]

Why do I think that all the wolves are currently voting for ntn at the moment.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Despite the fact that I was on mau for much of that day? I made a key vote moving over from mau and ntn the second time around, and only moved off of him because of his "reveal". I only moved off of him the first time because of that ridiculous run from out of nowhere. Anyone reading back on that will clearly see that.

I'm far from cleared, but I think there are better candidates for this vote right now.

I agree with this, and I really don't understand the group of candidates we have now except for Zinto. I don't understand why we would be looking at key Mau voters when we have one known wolf on him. It is possible more than one wolf put an earlier vote on him, but unlikely and much more likely the other wolves voted elsewhere.

[Chief Rum]

I know I am a villager, and at a key point on Day One, I, mau and ntn were more or less neck and neck, with it being unclear who would move out in front. With mau being a wolf, wolves would have had to consider moving me or ntn up in voting to save mau. If both mau and ntn are wolves, as suggested, then I would have been the only option and there should have been an upswell to make the second candidate.

That didn't happen, though. In fact, people moved off of me and moved ntn up. You guys are going to tell me the wolves had a choice between a wolf and a villager to put up against mau and they chose the wolf? IMO, ntn is clearly a villager.

I don't necessarily have a bad feeling about Zinto, but I have to go with one of the players higher than me (since I have two votes), and I don't think ntn is a wolf at all.

VOTE ZINTO

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Despite the fact that I was on mau for much of that day? I made a key vote moving over from mau and ntn the second time around, and only moved off of him because of his "reveal". I only moved off of him the first time because of that ridiculous run from out of nowhere. Anyone reading back on that will clearly see that.

I'm far from cleared, but I think there are better candidates for this vote right now.

I think the idea is that if you were a wolf, the vote is not a "key vote" since you would know the reveal was coming. I'm actually surprised that you're still arguing that your vote on mau somehow matters.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Why do I think that all the wolves are currently voting for ntn at the moment.

I lean towards ntn being good and with that, I'd be shocked if there isn't at least one wolf on him at this point. I haven't seen one good piece of reasoning for any of those four votes outside of he happened to be in the running day 1.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think the idea is that if you were a wolf, the vote is not a "key vote" since you would know the reveal was coming. I'm actually surprised that you're still arguing that your vote on mau somehow matters.

I don't buy this. His original vote was around noon before Mau was even a top candidate. Mau had his fake reveal five hours later. It is possible the wolves had this plan to pile votes on Mau and have him fake reveal, but that's not unlikely and not a good line of thinking for us to follow at this point.

[Danny]

I meant to say that's not likely

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think the idea is that if you were a wolf, the vote is not a "key vote" since you would know the reveal was coming. I'm actually surprised that you're still arguing that your vote on mau somehow matters.

There were nine voters on mau at the peak, IIRC. Why am I the one of the nine you think is playing this this way? You in particular have targeted me above others in consideration, and willfully ignore evidence to the contrary. I don't know why that is, but I hope it's because you're a confused but stubborn villager, rather than someone more deceitful.

If I was waiting for the reveal, is there some reason why it was some time before I switched off of mau after his reveal? Or was I just away during that time, do you surmise? Like many it seems, I didn't really look that closely at mau's "reveal" post until hoops pointed it out. So why as a hypotehtical wolf am I choosing to "miss" that reveal I supposedly knew about before getting off of mau?

You're going out of your way to construct reasons to lynch me.

[mckerney]

Vote Zinto

[CrimsonFox]

ntndeacon 4 - PackerFanatic (1021), GoldenEagle (1091), cougarfreak (1113) Zinto (1124)
Zinto 4 - Autumn (1061), bhlloy (1092), Danny (1121) Chief Rum (1135)
Chief Rum 2 - Passacaglia (1042) saldana (1128)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)

[CrimsonFox]

ntndeacon 4 - PackerFanatic (1021), GoldenEagle (1091), cougarfreak (1113) Zinto (1124)
Zinto 5 - Autumn (1061), bhlloy (1092), Danny (1121) Chief Rum (1135) mckerney (1141)
Chief Rum 2 - Passacaglia (1042) saldana (1128)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)

Yes it is true...I am bored...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Vote Zinto

Not that I disagree with the vote, but no reason why, mckerney?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

Ok, I have a state rules meeting for Tennis at 7:00 tonight, and the place is about 45 minutes to an hour from my house. I really don't have much to go on today, so I'm going to throw a vote out there.....and I hope I have time to get home, and check out what the hell is going on. Lathum was killed by the wolves today, but his vote still counts, and he still talks? This is weird. So I'm not putting a lot of stock in my vote, and if some run comes around, and I don't switch off later, don't read much into it, as in I'm trying to hide, or dumb for not switching. Seems to tell us the most.

votentndeacon

I really really don't like this explanation. It is longwinded and overdetailed and roundabout and nervous-sounding, yet the explanation doesn't really say anything. Very wolfy explanation.

[hoopsguy]

I like Zinto as a wolf more than NTN, for reasons that I outlined in my Day 1 vote analysis. I think NTN's vote was much more in line with a villager looking to survive (not indicating knowledge of Mau = wolf) while Zinto's vote looked like it was aiding Mau.

Beyond that, I don't have any hugely keen observations on the two of them. But I don't think Chief or bhl represent great candidates either, so I'll stick with one of the leaders rather than trying to instigate movement on another character.

VOTE ZINTO

[Danny]

Also, looking back and knowing Jackal is a villager, I'd bet there is good chance the wolves sacrificed their night 1 kill for the future ability to make an instant day kill.

[Autumn]

Trying to catch up. One thing i"ll point out, for those wondering why the wolves would kill Darth if he had scanned the cunning - when the wolves put in their kill order they likely did not know that Darth was out of the race. So they may have counted on him revealing the scans he had already.

I don't have any particular reason to think he scanned the cunning, but noticed no one had brought up this point.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

Also, looking back and knowing Jackal is a villager, I'd bet there is good chance the wolves sacrificed their night 1 kill for the future ability to make an instant day kill.

That's a really good point.

I think it could also be that they have the ability to unlock certain actions depending on how they do in the race - either through performing well (not necessarily coming in first), or sabotaging others.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

I agree with this, and I really don't understand the group of candidates we have now except for Zinto. I don't understand why we would be looking at key Mau voters when we have one known wolf on him. It is possible more than one wolf put an earlier vote on him, but unlikely and much more likely the other wolves voted elsewhere.

One reason, Danny, is the timing of the votes. Martin and Chief's and McKerney's votes on Mau, for instance were simultaneous, and it's possible they didn't realize the other wolf was planning on voting Mauboy. If Martin and one of these other one were a wolf they might each have been planning on putting a third vote, and discovered they were adding third, fourth and fifth. Thus Chief backing right off.

I'm not voting Chief, because there are other reasons to see his votes as good, but I think you could definitely make an argument for him. He moved his vote around the most in ways that sometimes seemed to help Mauboy out.