Invasion of Ukraine

[Edward64]

Russian soldier talking with Ukrainian soldiers before realizing he was a POW

https://twitter.com/paoloadam/status...w2PZ7LgXhCYKtw

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Russian soldier talking with Ukrainian soldiers before realizing he was a POW

https://twitter.com/paoloadam/status...w2PZ7LgXhCYKtw

Got decent meme potential

[Edward64]

Zelenskyy's speech writer is great. His message to Russians yesterday.

https://twitter.com/AlexBondODUA/sta...FEE7vv2cOkwoww

[Edward64]

FWIW there are reports that Lyman/Liman has been encircled and there's est. 2-3K Russian troops. Supposedly a big logistical/train hub. Armchair generals are saying Lyman is to hold out to buy the Russians more time as "mud" season is coming. But it would be great to see 2-3K Russian soldiers surrendering.

Hoping this won't be a prolonged siege. Drop a whole bunch of those "how to surrender" pamphlets. If I was a Russian soldier, I'd find a way to surrender.

I've not read anything detailed on how/where the Russian POWs are held. I would hope they are much further west. Be an interesting read.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Zelenskyy's speech writer is great. His message to Russians yesterday.

https://twitter.com/AlexBondODUA/sta...FEE7vv2cOkwoww

Looks like this officer could use a good speech writer:

Russian conscripts beat up their officer after he tells them 'you are all cannon fodder'

[Edward64]

I'm guessing there's been a number of Russian "fragging" incidents in this war.

[Edward64]

I doubt NATO membership happen anytime soon but hope it does eventually.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...54906a0210d0d1

Zelensky says Ukraine is applying for NATO membership "under an accelerated procedure"
:
“It is here, in Ukraine, that the values of our Euro-Atlantic community have obtained real vital energy,” Zelensky said in a pre-recorded video message. “The strength of the nation that fights for freedom, and the strength of the nations that help in this fight.”

He said that “de facto,” Ukraine had already “completed our path” to NATO.

“Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure. Under a procedure consistent with our significance for the protection of our entire community, under an accelerated procedure,” he said.

Zelensky said that he understood that accession would require consensus of NATO members.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

FWIW there are reports that Lyman/Liman has been encircled and there's est. 2-3K Russian troops. Supposedly a big logistical/train hub. Armchair generals are saying Lyman is to hold out to buy the Russians more time as "mud" season is coming. But it would be great to see 2-3K Russian soldiers surrendering.

Looks like Lyman has, for all practical purposes, fallen. Some reports say Ukraine let the Russians withdraw.

On other news, there is a noticeable uptick in social media on possibility of Russians using tactical nukes. I do think it's highly unlikely but also think the odds have gone up from a month ago, before the counter-offensive.

I sure hope our Pentagon/NATO planners have been wargaming & are ready to respond appropriately.

Live updates: Russia's war in Ukraine | CNN

Russian troops have withdrawn from the town of Lyman in eastern Ukraine to avoid being surrounded by Ukraine’s army, the Russian Ministry of Defense said Saturday.

“In connection with the creation of a threat of encirclement, allied troops were withdrawn from the settlement of Krasny Liman to more advantageous lines,” the defense ministry said on social media platform Telegram.

The Russian name for the town of Lyman is Krasny Liman.

Russia state media reported that the reason for the withdrawal was due to Western-made artillery and intelligence.

Russia-24 reporter Yevgeny Poddubny acknowledged the withdrawal and claimed the reason for it was that “the enemy used both Western-made artillery and intelligence from North Atlantic alliance countries.”

[dubb93]

I guess my thought is are we really going to let them move their nukes into position? I mean the tactical nukes can only launch so far (from what I read they would have to be moved into position prior to launching) I’d gather we probably know where they are and any movement of them and their associated launchers would likely draw a response from NATO before they are even deployed.

My money is on them blowing up a power plant and blaming Ukraine if push comes to shove. They have already planted that seed earlier in the war claiming Ukraine was shooting at them.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I guess my thought is are we really going to let them move their nukes into position? I mean the tactical nukes can only launch so far (from what I read they would have to be moved into position prior to launching) I’d gather we probably know where they are and any movement of them and their associated launchers would likely draw a response from NATO before they are even deployed.

My money is on them blowing up a power plant and blaming Ukraine if push comes to shove. They have already planted that seed earlier in the war claiming Ukraine was shooting at them.

I'm not sure we have that good of intel to keep track of all the artillery trucks (?) hauling tactical nukes missile.

I think we'll have to assume if Russia wants to use them, there's nothing we can do to stop them with the very short flight time.

[tarcone]

Ukraine played rope a dope

[Edward64]

Elon, love what you are doing to reduce our dependency on ME oil. But keep your tweets to business & technology, leave your opinions about Ukrainian war to yourself.

What you tweeted would not have been as controversial in the first couple months of the war. But right now the tide has turned.

On other news, looks like AFU is making steady progress towards Kherson. I think there is fair odds that the Russian army will continue to regroup & "reposition".

[Atocep]

Elon is spending too much time on right wing social media.

[Edward64]

This YT channel has Russian media/talkshows with subtitles. The tone on those clips have been negative with the Ukrainian successes.

These are 5-10 min clips so it doesn't provide full context but think the clips are a pretty good representation of the rest of the programs.

Russian Media Monitor - YouTube

[Edward64]

RIP

I never finished the game but loved the setting/mood of Metro. I'm thinking that Ukrainian game developers will be creating some pretty interesting games after things are stabilized.

... animator Andrii Korzinkin, who worked on Metro Exodus and now we have learned that he died while performing a combat mission in the struggle for independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

[Edward64]

For dog lovers!



https://twitter.com/i/status/1577279570247847937

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Elon is spending too much time on right wing social media.

Which is now going to be just called Twitter.

[Edward64]

Check out clip to see how a drone is taken out. Pretty weird looking "gun".


https://twitter.com/i/status/1577632584200327174

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

On other news, there is a noticeable uptick in social media on possibility of Russians using tactical nukes. I do think it's highly unlikely but also think the odds have gone up from a month ago, before the counter-offensive.

I sure hope our Pentagon/NATO planners have been wargaming & are ready to respond appropriately.
[/url]

Watched the Lemon-Zakaria clip below. According to Zakaria (and Petraeus), if the Russians use a tactical nuke, the US will not respond in kind. Instead, we'll do a massive conventional campaign to take out Russian "assets" (including ships in the Black Sea).

I can see this if there was one nuke set off. But what if there were multiple nukes used, what if Kyiv was a target with massive civilian casualties? Dunno, but think we'd still do a response with conventional weapons.

Zakaria: ‘We are witnessing the turning point’ in the Ukraine war - YouTube

[whomario]

Musk is such a manipulative bastard. I mean, it's not news but still ... Not only taking outdated election data to 'prove' pro-russiam sentiment, 2012 when there was a 2019 election, but massively misinterpreting or rather mis-representing it ( i don't care if he's too dumb to grasp it, to above it to check it or doing it on purpose).

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by whomario

Musk is such a manipulative bastard. I mean, it's not news but still ... Not only taking outdated election data to 'prove' pro-russiam sentiment, 2012 when there was a 2019 election, but massively misinterpreting or rather mis-representing it ( i don't care if he's too dumb to grasp it, to above it to check it or doing it on purpose).

This is what happens if you need some rubles to help finance that Twitter purchase (or are just ignorant).

SI

[Edward64]

Think this is the first "real" FPS clip I've seen. Please note, pretty graphic.

The Ukrainian soldier shot the Russian soldier hiding behind the door. : ukraine

[GrantDawg]

He needs to shoot him 15 more times to make sure he is dead.

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[Edward64]

If Joe is making it public (and reiterating) his concerns, I think we need to take him seriously. I think the odds have ticked up some.

Biden offers stark 'Armageddon' warning on the dangers of Putin's nuclear threats | CNN Politics

President Joe Biden on Thursday delivered a stark warning about the dangers behind Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats as Moscow continues to face military setbacks in Ukraine.

“First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use (of a) nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going,” Biden warned during remarks at a Democratic fundraiser in New York where he was introduced by James Murdoch, the youngest son of media mogul Rupert Murdoch, according to the pool report.

He added: “I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily (use) a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.”

It’s striking for the President to speak so candidly and invoke Armageddon, particularly at a fundraiser, while his aides from the National Security Council to the State Department to the Pentagon have spoken in much more measured terms, saying they take the threats seriously but don’t see movement on them from the Kremlin.

“I’m trying to figure out what is Putin’s off ramp?” Biden said during the event, “Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself in a position that he does not not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?”

His comments come as the US considers how to respond to a range of potential scenarios, including fears that Russians could use tactical nuclear weapons, according to three sources briefed on the latest intelligence and previously reported by CNN.

Officials have cautioned as recently as Thursday that the US has not detected preparations for a nuclear strike. However, experts view them as potential options the US must prepare for as Russia’s invasion falters and as Moscow annexes more Ukrainian territory.

[PilotMan]

I think that Ukraine is trying to push hard enough that they can fortify their lines during the bad weather season. Once the weather changes there it's going to bog down severely.

[Coffee Warlord]

In other news...

Latest totals from pravda.com.ua state Ivan lost 17 tanks, 31 artillery systems, and 350 troops in the last 24 hours alone. From another source, Ukraine is no longer short artillery rounds, because they have recovered so much abandoned equipment the last few days from retreating Russians.

Estimated total troop losses since the 'special military operation' began on 24 February now stands at 61,600.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

He needs to shoot him 15 more times to make sure he is dead.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

He must have watched a lot of horror movies. When you think the bad guy is dead, double tap, because they probably aren't.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

He needs to shoot him 15 more times to make sure he is dead.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Yeah, I was surprised he was able to get up after the initial shots. BTW was that an outhouse?

Pretty sure those were AK-74 which comes in 5.45. The AK-47 is 7.62. I've always read the 7.62 was pretty effective in stopping someone and the M4/M16 5.56 less so (assuming 5.45 is similar to 5.56).

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

In other news...

Latest totals from pravda.com.ua state Ivan lost 17 tanks, 31 artillery systems, and 350 troops in the last 24 hours alone. From another source, Ukraine is no longer short artillery rounds, because they have recovered so much abandoned equipment the last few days from retreating Russians.

Estimated total troop losses since the 'special military operation' began on 24 February now stands at 61,600.

I saw that Ukraine has @440 tanks recovered from the Russians.

[Solecismic]

More than 5,000 US soldiers were killed during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan over a 20-year period. That felt huge, especially when you consider the number seriously injured.

I can't even begin to contemplate what it must be like in Russia right now, with a population of a little less than half of the US and maybe three times the casualties in 7 1/2 months that we had in about 20 years.

Putin might have firm control over the country now, and maybe most people believe the state media construct that this is some sort of necessary police action. But those losses can't be hidden, and "police actions" undertaken by the second-strongest military in the world don't fail like this has.

Maybe I should worry more about nuclear warfare. We know Putin might be shielded from knowing just how badly this is failing. But he has to understand that once nuclear weapons are involved, the territory taken isn't worth very much even if NATO doesn't respond (and I'm not sure it would, other than more conventional weaponry under the same terms as we see it now, and has been very effective).

Putin doesn't seem to care about the casualty numbers. And maybe the weaponry they're using is considered mostly obsolete from a modern perspective and should be updated anyway. But the risk of losing China's support is significant. And even countries like India, which have been happy to profit off of the ineffective and inconsistent Western sanctions, might feel differently if nuclear weaponry is used - they've been in that standoff with Pakistan for a long time now and understand what that would represent.

So, no, I don't think we should be thinking about this like the Cuban Crisis. I think the far greater danger to the Western world is the leadership in Iran obtaining nuclear weaponry, and they've been working hard at it for close to 20 years now, and are likely close.

[bhlloy]

If a nuclear weapon is actually used, we are in uncharted territory. It’s one thing for the US to use one at the end of WW2, in a war where they were attacked and arguably it saved lives on both sides. There’s no value in Russia using it anywhere close to the current fighting, it would affect lots of ethnic Russians and actual Russians and the land he’s claimed is now Russia, so presumably we are talking about nuking Kiev (or maybe something like Kherson if things go really sideways for them).

At that point, they have nuked a major city with no military justification, the two options are NATO responds in kind and we’re on the nuclear war train or NATO does nothing and next time it’s Warsaw, Prague or worse and we’re in the same place. Putin has to be bluffing. If he’s not, we are absolutely fucked either way. You wonder at what point the invisible line is crossed and we start to think about taking him out, repercussions be damned.

[PilotMan]

Is it wrong to feel even a little optimistic that there are people in the Putin regime that would topple him if he truly did try and push the nuclear option?

[NobodyHere]

How to (successfully) hit on a Russian soldier:

Teen uses dating app to get Russians to reveal their positions

[Solecismic]

We throw around terms like "tactical nuclear weapons," because certainly the sophistication surrounding our ability to destroy people and infrastructure has changed quite a bit.

Destroying a city on the scale of what we did in Hiroshima and Nagasaki would provoke an immediate and decisive reaction. We think of the simulation screens in War Games. No one can win that kind of war. Mutual destruction is assured.

I think that's what Putin's generals would react to. But what about a more limited weapon designed to destroy infrastructure? Or one that can target a troop position? Still fallout, still incredible suffering, but not the civilian aspect to as great a degree. That's more what I was referring to, and Putin may be considering.

The problem for him is that now we're talking about a cutting-edge weapon that may or may not exist in the required form. Expensive and game-changing. Putin has the money and the resources, though. That's why it's a worry. Then, if we respond, how? Instead of a "conventional" approach, where our more sophisticated anti-tank and anti-drone and anti-aircraft and long-range precision bombs, at great expense, are being used so effectively against Russia's obsolete and massive attack, we have to consider what it would take to neutralize a truly modern weapon - one that might not even be deployed within Ukraine. We really can't help without crossing lines that essentially activates NATO.

Scary thought. But equally scary for the rest of the world, and that's something that China might not want. We have to assume Xi has already game-planned this and has told Putin where his line is drawn.

[bhlloy]

Yeah, I’m very hopeful that even China draws the line at using a nuke. If China withdrew support he’d be done, and it’s basically then hoping that there are enough sane people around him that if he tries to burn everything down he ends up in a ditch covered in petrol on fire.

I guess I don’t know anything about tactical nukes, but I still can’t imagine he’s using one anywhere close to his troops or the land he’s claiming.

[Edward64]

I don't think we can count on his generals to stop him. Don't think we can count China to stop him. Don't think he cares too much about world opinion. He's shown he's got firm control of the "apparatus" (at least so far), proven by the fact he's still in charge even with the catastrophic setbacks.

I think the best we can hope for is the US messaging to Russia works -- don't do it, it won't help the land war that much anyway (e.g. Ukrainian forces are too dispersed for it to be worthwhile, are you actually going to bomb civilians in Kyiv to get Zelenskyy, NATO is going to conventionally bomb you to hell in retaliation etc.)

I do think we've got good intel to tell us if he starts to execute "the plan". So there (theoretically) will be one last chance to stop it.

But ultimately, it's his finger on the trigger.

[PilotMan]

Edward, we're talking about Putin, not trump.

[sterlingice]

He's fired another general today. What's the O/U on number of days before we find said general suiciding out a window?

SI

[Edward64]

I found below YT. It's a couple Russian guys that do quick street interviews. They go back pre-war with other questions.

It's interesting to listen to the everyday Russian person's POV. Lot's of "don't/can't/won't talk about it" re: the war. In general (and no surprise), older folks are more supportive of the war, younger not so much. But yeah, prior to the counter-offensive & mobilization, I think majority of Russian's supported the war or didn't care enough to be against it.

1420 - YouTube

[sterlingice]

One of the shows on NPR was talking about that earlier this week. And it's not surprising, right? When it just costs some government money that's just numbers or a sheet to most people, personally, there's no sacrifice required and it's easy to support. But now that you could come home and you or your son be drafted to go off to war - unsurprising the support has softened. One of the correspondents in Russia asked something to the effect of "How would support for Iraq and Afghanistan had been different if it was a draft" - that's basically, Vietnam, right?

SI

[Edward64]

Crimean bridge got hit. Unsure what caused the explosion - missile, truck bomb, there was a video of some boat right under the bridge etc. Also unsure true damage with some reports that it can be repaired quickly etc.

Bottom line. It's gotten more real for the troops & civilians in Crimea. A nice birthday present for Putin.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Crimean bridge got hit. Unsure what caused the explosion - missile, truck bomb, there was a video of some boat right under the bridge etc. Also unsure true damage with some reports that it can be repaired quickly etc.

Bottom line. It's gotten more real for the troops & civilians in Crimea. A nice birthday present for Putin.

Sections of both bridges that are side by side are totally gone. Russians are claiming it to be a truck bomb, and if it was it was massive.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Sections of both bridges that are side by side are totally gone. Russians are claiming it to be a truck bomb, and if it was it was massive.

I follow Rybar (https://mobile.twitter.com/rybar_en) who is pro-Russian. Like to get opposing point of views.

He did bring up that there were probably innocent civilians killed. The bridge itself was targeted but it's reasonable to assume there were regular folks driving on the bridge also.

He brings up a good (I think) point. Is this a war crime? Unless Ukraine warned everyone to stay off the bridge and/or it was a military target, I'm thinking yes.

[Solecismic]

Everything about war constitutes a crime, at least since the days when wars were two lines of musketeers, lining up against each other in a distant field and firing away at each other.

The ethical question would center around whether something is a legitimate target (troops/supplies enter the region on the bridge, and it is also a symbol of the "annexation") and whether there's an alternate way to reach that target that would cost far fewer lives.

I don't think it remotely qualifies as a war crime in the sense that I would even consider criticizing Ukraine over it.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I follow Rybar (https://mobile.twitter.com/rybar_en) who is pro-Russian. Like to get opposing point of views.

He did bring up that there were probably innocent civilians killed. The bridge itself was targeted but it's reasonable to assume there were regular folks driving on the bridge also.

He brings up a good (I think) point. Is this a war crime? Unless Ukraine warned everyone to stay off the bridge and/or it was a military target, I'm thinking yes.

"Hey, guys, we're about to blow up a bridge that's really strategic to your supply lines - just giving you some warning so you definitely don't put anti-air stuff there to stop us"

SI

[albionmoonlight]

I don't know the technical definitions of war crimes, but blowing up a bridge that one side is using to supply its army seems well within the bounds of acceptable in a war.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I don't know the technical definitions of war crimes, but blowing up a bridge that one side is using to supply its army seems well within the bounds of acceptable in a war.

I looked it up, not sure if it's a good definition.

https://www.dw.com/en/what-constitut...ime/a-60989316

Distinction, proportionality, precaution

To decide whether an individual or a military has committed a war crime, international humanitarian law lays down three principles: distinction, proportionality and precaution.

Proportionality prohibits armies from responding to an attack with excessive violence. "If a soldier is killed, for example, you cannot bomb an entire city in retaliation," Kersten told DW.

It is also illegal to target objectives that are "expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objectives,

But here's the out ...

which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated," according to the International Committee of the Red Cross.

Precaution requires parties to a conflict to avoid or minimize the harm done to the civilian population.

Finally, "the principle of distinction says that you have to be constantly trying to distinguish between civilian and belligerent populations and objects," Kersten said, adding that this can be difficult.

I do think the "military advantage anticipated" outweighs the 3-4 (?) civilian deaths. I think this happened at 6am local time so probably done to minimize mass casualties. And the winner writes the history books.

[GrantDawg]

The explosion was so big because reportedly there was a oil laden train on the bridge at the time. I would say that was a highly valuable strategic target, with very few civilian casualties. The exact opposite of say bombing a children's hospital.

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[Mota]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The explosion was so big because reportedly there was a oil laden train on the bridge at the time. I would say that was a highly valuable strategic target, with very few civilian casualties. The exact opposite of say bombing a children's hospital.

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Yeah, if Russia comes back and starts talking about war crimes, I think Ukraine has a much stronger argument there.

[PilotMan]

So far they've said 3 deaths. The driver of the truck and two others.