werewolf LIV! Terror at the country club (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN)

[PurdueBrad]

Good breakdown Hoops and, because I'm on there, I'll answer for my move. For me, I wasn't willing to lynch RPI (if you see the post where he vociferously voices displeasure towards me for moving off of NC) because I genuinely believed him. So I went Alan, given that he was in third place and hoping to move him ahead of RPI. Of course I was still off as Alan was good too.

I do like using the movement as a means to examine. I would be curious to hear other people's reasoning as well here.

[hoopsguy]

But they now have the cover of a fake-reveal to justify their vote movement. They will blend in with people who are legitimately trying to help save "Neon the seer". I think they absolutely move votes to help him, either as fellow wolf or else to appear to be helping a person they secretly plan to kill ASAP.

BTW, Telle said she guarded me Night 1, but said nothing about getting a block. The whole Goth/Wolf conversation is only important in terms of interpreting the vote swing. Well, and a secondary consideration of "what wolves would be ballsy enough to go after the seer right away with a bodyguard in play"?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Things that make you go hmmm.

Post #167 - EagleFan bails from Neon, who has attracted votes from Alan and Barkeep (known villagers) and puts his vote on me. That put him back in a tie with Cronin and RPI with two votes each.


But Olie put the 3rd vote back on Neon, and no one else had three votes when Neon staged the fake reveal. This is what I show for the votes, based on the above info, when Neon made his move.

Neon - Alan (131), Barkeep (162), Olie (199)
Barkeep - Bug (179), Neon (193)
RPI - Hoops (82), Telle (107)
Cronin - RendeR (95), Molson (148)
Rum - Pass (115)
Crim - Path (129)
Eagle - Raiders (140)
DNA - Arlington (141)
Alan - DNA (143)
Hoops - Eagle (167)
RendeR - Cronin (87)

Alan and Barkeep were villagers and Oliegirl never came back before deadline. So I can see where Neon would feel like he was not necessarily going to be able to shed the votes in time. Again, this is true whether he was wolf or goth. If goth, he couldn't count on movement to save him. As wolf, he might have been trying to help disguise movement to save him.

So, who moved?

Cronin moved to RPI, creating a tie.
Purdue cast his vote on Alan, bringing him one vote back.
Path moves to RPI, vaulting him into the lead.
Alan moves his vote from Neon to DT (we know Alan was a good guy)
MrBug moves his vote from Barkeep to RPI - pushing it to a three vote margin
Barkeep moves his votes from Neon to DT (again, we know Barkeep was a good guy)
RendeR moves his vote from Cronin to DT. O-kay ...

Most interesting thing to me there. There were three two-vote candidates, Barkeep, RPI and cronin.

And cronin didn't get a single vote moved to him.

[st.cronin]

I'm not sure I understand the discussion about the votes on Neon moving. There are two possibilities:

Neon was the goth. In this scenario, you must look at the day 1 vote as if Neon was a villager, since the wolves did not know his identity.

Neon was a wolf. Is this the assumption you guys are making? If so, the thinking needs to be fleshed out a bit, because I'm not sure I understand what you're driving at.

As for my comment about "he might be a villager and fake revealing" - if you think I'm bad, this likely points to me being the goth, because there is no other role that would know anybody's allegiance on day 1. I made that comment because in a couple of games I've come close to doing exactly that, and I could totally see Neon doing something like that. Its exactly the sort of mind game that Neon likes to play.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm not sure I understand the discussion about the votes on Neon moving. There are two possibilities:

Neon was the goth. In this scenario, you must look at the day 1 vote as if Neon was a villager, since the wolves did not know his identity.

Neon was a wolf. Is this the assumption you guys are making? If so, the thinking needs to be fleshed out a bit, because I'm not sure I understand what you're driving at.

Some heavier posters in this game have heavily pushed the NC as Goth theory, but accepting that he is requires a set of low odd moves to happen, which, taken altogether, means it's pretty unlikely Neon was the Goth.

Look for a post from me detailing it more thoroughly. There is very little chance that Neon as the Goth would work out the way it has. Possible, but not something I would bank on.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

As for my comment about "he might be a villager and fake revealing" - if you think I'm bad, this likely points to me being the goth, because there is no other role that would know anybody's allegiance on day 1. I made that comment because in a couple of games I've come close to doing exactly that, and I could totally see Neon doing something like that. Its exactly the sort of mind game that Neon likes to play.

Sorry, I just don't buy that about Neon. I don't think Neon would fake reveal as a villager on Day One. He was a wolf and trying to save his ass. Occam's Razor.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Lathum

updated vote count

Neon_Chaos-15- DaddyTorgo (370), PurdeuBrad (373), Telle (367), St.Cronin (402), ChiefRum (455), HoopsGuy (461), OlieGirl (481), ArlingtonColt (491), passacasglia (523), raidersarmy (534), alanT (552), render (553), eaglefan (560), molson (578), MrDna (582)

DaddyTorgo-4- Crim (384), Path12 (425), barkeep (559), mrbug (567)

Have we completely written off the day two vote count because of the NC thing? Two of three people I'm looking at stayed on DT, one for a long time and one rather late. Everyone else agreed that we wanted to keep DT's power and hope we could protect him. I know it seems like a meaningless vote but why leave a vote on a guy that has revealed, not been challenged, when we really did a wolf in our sights? So three people that are still alive left votes on our Duke, that has to be important.

[hoopsguy]

Purdue, since the now-proven Duke had declared he was going to use his power on Neon as well it pretty much becomes a vote on "best play for a Duke" versus a "vote for anyone but Neon". At least that is how I took it.

Day 1 is always random, until it isn't. Clearly it became non-random enough for Neon to try and save his ass. So that is why I'm interested in it, relative to Day 2.

[Chief Rum]

Sorry, PurdueBrad, I see no value in that vote at all. The reasoning for voting for DT was rational--it was still essentially a vote for NC, just a different way of going about it.

Only possible value is that wolves may have held back voting for NC in hopes things would turn, but I doubt it. They probably knew NC was a goner from the get go and put votes on him relatively early.

Until something happens to clear it up, I have to think there is no value in the Day Two vote whatsoever.

[PurdueBrad]

That's cool, I'm seeing it a bit differently but perhaps incorrectly.

[st.cronin]

I just want to point out that every game there are a number of players who get a bad vibe off me, regardless of whether I'm actually bad or not. Eventually, I always get lynched. When was the last game I was night killed? I think it was maybe the 3rd or 4th game I played - there's no value in night-killing somebody who always gets lynched.

[st.cronin]

PB, even though I was pushing hard the "vote for DT is a wolf play" I agree that there is very little value to the day 2 vote. There may be some arguments or posts on that day that have value.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Post #167 - EagleFan bails from Neon, who has attracted votes from Alan and Barkeep (known villagers) and puts his vote on me. That put him back in a tie with Cronin and RPI with two votes each.

I pulled the vote from Neon at that point because he pulled his from RPI. At that point I had no suspicion of anyone until his fake reveal. My first attempt at voting Neon was because of someone pointing out that RPI was a good player and just had not yet been in the thread. With this being my first WW I figured it better to keep some of the good players in to try to learn from their actions.

My vote on you was only because I had no idea how the voting actually worked and thought a WW vote on a person would be a kill of that person so I figured being the only person voting for someone would clear my name when that person lived after day one.

I have not suspected you at any point at this time (subject to change if your rip my head off in the middle of the night ).

[hoopsguy]

Eagle, I don't care at all about that vote on me - there are times where I'll have rabbit ears about a vote on me, but not in the middle of Day 1 when I'm not in danger. It was about evaluating in the context of Neon.

I pointed out in the initial post that I liked you calling out Neon for his "following others" stuff - something that I doubt you are doing in your first game if the two of you are playing on the same team.

Somewhat unrelated observation - this has been a strange game without a lot of information and without prospects for much in the future with key roles dead. I'll be pretty excited if we are able to come from behind in this one - kind of similar to Alan's items game in that respect.

[oliegirl]

I've been out most of the weekend, and when I was home yesterday my Internet was down...I will catch up on reading and post my thoughts and vote before I go to bed. Off to make dinner now though...wolf stew anyone????

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Bug, I see you are here. Can you possibly explain a little more. We've just had such bad reveal luck that playing it blind may actually be the better move but I'm willing to listen.

Well my motive for it was that I was the one the bartender got drunk last night. Since I only know myself to be a villager, I had hoped to gain someone in my trust scope. Obviously no one really came to my defense so I'm assuming the bartender didn't want to give any direct evidence (understandably) and thus making them an easy target for the night time action of the wolves. Obviously the people who voted for me right after the vote/night actions are not the bartender since a death occured last night anyways and the bartender originally and incorrectly thought I was a wolf

[DaddyTorgo]

I definitely think there's value to be gained from looking at the D1 votes. Maybe some cross list between who was online during the reveal and who hadn't voted for neon, and what votes were moved? Some massive compliation of lists all highlighted and such (aka the telle special)?

[st.cronin]

I'm not sure where Chief is going with his analysis, but I've been thinking about his assumption that Neon started out as a wolf.

If there were one or more wolves on Neon pre-reveal, the reveal would not need to be done. It could be simply HINTED at, or not done at all - the wolves could simply move their vote. I think the easiest move would have been to try to force a tie. Certainly that's a risky move, but not as risky as fake-revealing on day 1.

So if you assume that Neon started as a wolf, I think you have to assume that all the votes on Neon pre-reveal were villagers.

The fact that Neon revealed I think means that he did not start as a wolf, but rather started as the goth. I completely disagree with CR's assessment that that's a low-probability situation - I think its the highest probability.

[hoopsguy]

MrBug, I don't believe we know if the Bartender can prevent a wolf kill - depends on the mechanics Lathum has put in place.

While I'm all for people letting us know they were blocked, I don't think there is a good reason for the Bartender to come forward.

Night 1 - Barkeep
Night 2 - ???
Night 3 - MrBug

MrBug, can we safely assume that you don't learn the identity of the bartender when they act on you?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Obviously the people who voted for me right after the vote/night actions are not the bartender since a death occured last night anyways and the bartender originally and incorrectly thought I was a wolf

I guess this line kind of confuses me. Is this an attempt to narrow down who the bartender is or am I misreading this?

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

MrBug, I don't believe we know if the Bartender can prevent a wolf kill - depends on the mechanics Lathum has put in place.

While I'm all for people letting us know they were blocked, I don't think there is a good reason for the Bartender to come forward.

Night 1 - Barkeep
Night 2 - ???
Night 3 - MrBug

MrBug, can we safely assume that you don't learn the identity of the bartender when they act on you?

If that were the case, there wouldn't need to be much of a reason for me to ask the bartender to give me any sort of sign

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I guess this line kind of confuses me. Is this an attempt to narrow down who the bartender is or am I misreading this?

Bartender = On my side

[PurdueBrad]

My side too, which is why I'm concerned about helping others narrow it down.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

My side too, which is why I'm concerned about helping others narrow it down.

Again, you're not one of the people that's beign touted as a wolf. You are in more of a position where people are just overlooking you at this point. I'm doing what I can to make sure I survive

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The fact that Neon revealed I think means that he did not start as a wolf, but rather started as the goth. I completely disagree with CR's assessment that that's a low-probability situation - I think its the highest probability.

By itself, it has more meaning that he could have been the goth. But not in the context of what happened after. Remember, NC wasn't a Goth when he was strung up. He was a wolf. Lathum said we couldn't tell you if he was originally the Goth or an original wolf, but for him to be a wolf at that point, we have to believe the wolves converted him on Night One--despite the fact they would have been under the assumption he was the seer, not the Goth AND the bodyguard was likely to protect him AND he himself said he had protective items.

Do you really think they would ignore all of that and go after him anyway? and then even if they did, they would have to dodge all that--the items he may have had, the likely bodyguard protection, to succeed in reaching him and converting him.

Sorry, I just don't believe they would even attempt that, much less succeed in doing it. If they did, they made an extremely risky decision that, against all odds, actually rolled up gold for them.

Mark it down now. Short of an amazing move or Lathum allowing wolf actions after deadline (post lynch results), NC was an original wolf.

[PurdueBrad]

I understand that Mr. Bug, and I'll admit right now to grasping at straws between the three that I've narrowed it down to. I definitely appreciate your willingness to answer my questions so if anything, that might help you out in my book anyway.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Again, I had my reasons to call for her. Wasn't she quick to have me strung up?

Whoa, where are you getting your information? I never voted for you and off the top of my head dont remember even really focusing on you as a potential wolf. I'd really like you to back that statement up.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Do you really think they would ignore all of that and go after him anyway? and then even if they did, they would have to dodge all that--the items he may have had, the likely bodyguard protection, to succeed in reaching him and converting him.

While I understand this logic, remember the following: There was NO night kill night 1, the bartender blocked Barkeep (villager), and there was no bodyguard block. I think it's better than 9 to 1 odds that the goth was converted that night. You think the wolves got lucky? No, I think Neon was the goth - remember, even before the reveal his behavior was a bit strange.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Whoa, where are you getting your information? I never voted for you and off the top of my head dont remember even really focusing on you as a potential wolf. I'd really like you to back that statement up.

I can't even find where i voted you either so I take it back...lol

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

While I understand this logic, remember the following: There was NO night kill night 1, the bartender blocked Barkeep (villager), and there was no bodyguard block. I think it's better than 9 to 1 odds that the goth was converted that night. You think the wolves got lucky? No, I think Neon was the goth - remember, even before the reveal his behavior was a bit strange.

If NC is not the Goth, someone else is. They might have found someone else. They also might have been blocked by one of these items.

And I'm not sure we absolutely know the bodyguard would know if they stopped an attack.

[Chief Rum]

LATHUM: Have you allowed any night actions to be submitted after the lynch results were posted (but before the night actions were processed)? Or do you have a hard and fast rule that no such submissions are allowed (all night actions in by the deadline)?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If NC is not the Goth, someone else is. They might have found someone else. They also might have been blocked by one of these items.

And I'm not sure we absolutely know the bodyguard would know if they stopped an attack.

You are hanging onto your convictions very firmly, too firmly in my mind.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

LATHUM: Have you allowed any night actions to be submitted after the lynch results were posted (but before the night actions were processed)? Or do you have a hard and fast rule that no such submissions are allowed (all night actions in by the deadline)?

I think he's allowed them, at least on night one because he asked for everyone to send it their night action votes ASAP and I believe he said that after he posted the lynch results

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

You are hanging onto your convictions very firmly, too firmly in my mind.

Vote for me then, if you really think I'm a wolf.

The odds are still very high against what you are suggesting. All that a nonkill on Night One shows is that there is evidence the wolves might have actually gotten the lucky roll they needed.

You don't know enough about the night rules to rule out what I have suggested (nor do I), and the odds lean toward my way on that, not yours.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I think he's allowed them, at least on night one because he asked for everyone to send it their night action votes ASAP and I believe he said that after he posted the lynch results

And that's a key point, Bug. Because if he did, then that is rather disappointing. No one should have been allowed to submit actions after knowing the results of the daytime lynch. That gives them a distinct advantage over others who did their actions without that knowledge.

So I hope he did not allow this.

[oliegirl]

VOTE MRBUG708

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Vote for me then, if you really think I'm a wolf.

The odds are still very high against what you are suggesting. All that a nonkill on Night One shows is that there is evidence the wolves might have actually gotten the lucky roll they needed.

You don't know enough about the night rules to rule out what I have suggested (nor do I), and the odds lean toward my way on that, not yours.

I think its a coin flip whether the wolves target somebody who says "I'm the seer." I think its exceedingly likely that the wolves hit the goth on night 1 - what you suggest as an alternative seems incredibly remote to me. So, I think its much more likely that Neon was the goth (especially given the totality of his day 1 behavior), then that the wolves hit a 1 in 15 chance (or whatever it would be) and hit the goth on night 1.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think its a coin flip whether the wolves target somebody who says "I'm the seer." I think its exceedingly likely that the wolves hit the goth on night 1 - what you suggest as an alternative seems incredibly remote to me. So, I think its much more likely that Neon was the goth (especially given the totality of his day 1 behavior), then that the wolves hit a 1 in 15 chance (or whatever it would be) and hit the goth on night 1.

The Goth in the rest of the group wasn't the only other possibility. We don't know that the BG would have received information for sure from a block. We don't know if an item might have gotten in the way. We don't even know if the wolves submitted an action period.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

The Goth in the rest of the group wasn't the only other possibility. We don't know that the BG would have received information for sure from a block. We don't know if an item might have gotten in the way. We don't even know if the wolves submitted an action period.

The items are one time use only, per the rules. So if somebody were attacked, they would know SOMETHING had happened, because they would no longer have that item. The other two possibilities you suggest seem very obscure and unlikely. At any rate, you've yet to explain where this assumption takes us, so until you do I'll leave it be.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The items are one time use only, per the rules. So if somebody were attacked, they would know SOMETHING had happened, because they would no longer have that item. The other two possibilities you suggest seem very obscure and unlikely. At any rate, you've yet to explain where this assumption takes us, so until you do I'll leave it be.

You must have missed the list I posted above, where this point was a key part in developing that wolf list. Not sure how you missed that, but so be it. I recommend reviewing my posts from today.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I believe our wolves, quite possibly all of them, are in this group:

PB
Render
cronin
Bug
MrDNA
Pass
path
RA
hoops
ArlColt

This is almost completely based on the Day One vote. I include hoops because I couldn't disclude him with the evidence given, but I don't believe he is a wolf, and would go after him last.

Most suspicious of the above?

Render for killing BK, and Bug for his "errors" forgetting game rules and such. They have both made odd voting decisions, too.

I also get a bad vibe off of cronin, but I haven't pinned down yet what's causing it.

PB, cronin, Bug, path and render--at least--were around when NC's reveal went down. My guess is all wolves were present at that time unless they had an announced reason (work, etc.) for not being there.

Key to my guesswork, so take note: Neon was not a convert, but an original wolf. I have given my reasons for this.

I assume this is the post you are talking about, but how you get there from your assumption about Neon is totally invisible to me.

[Passacaglia]

Sheesh, it would have been nice if Telle could have told us if she blocked a kill.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And that's a key point, Bug. Because if he did, then that is rather disappointing. No one should have been allowed to submit actions after knowing the results of the daytime lynch. That gives them a distinct advantage over others who did their actions without that knowledge.

So I hope he did not allow this.

What about a conditional order? I allowed conditional orders based on the results of a lynch (i.e. whether or not a player was revealed as good or bad) in the game I ran. It made sense to me -- if we weren't on a 24-hour deadline, the person would have known the results with plenty of time to think about it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If NC is not the Goth, someone else is. They might have found someone else. They also might have been blocked by one of these items.

And I'm not sure we absolutely know the bodyguard would know if they stopped an attack.

But the thing is -- doesn't this seem like a Goth play? Reveal as the seer -- late so that the real seer can't reveal and the bodyguard can't defend you, then the wolves try to kill you? Also, didn't someone say he wasn't even the lead vote-getter at the time?

[st.cronin]

This is what I have:

MrBug708 - 4 -Raiders Army (981), Crim (1010), st.cronin (1044), oliegirl (1136)
st.cronin - 2 - RendeR (992), MrBug708 (1055)
PurdueBrad - 1 - EagleFan (1016)

I guess a lot of people are waiting til morning to make their votes.

[st.cronin]

Raiders Army, path12, Passacaglia, Mr.DNA, DaddyTorgo, ChiefRum, and PurdueBrad yet to vote.

[st.cronin]

dola, also hoopsguy.

There's a wolf or two in that list, bank on it.

[PurdueBrad]

Mr. Bug, your candor earlier kept you from getting my vote, so good answers I guess. Two veterans on opposite sides of a discussion concerns me some, so looking at the discussion between Cronin and Chief I feel like there could be something there. I'm going to vote:

vote St. Cronin

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Raiders Army, path12, Passacaglia, Mr.DNA, DaddyTorgo, ChiefRum, and PurdueBrad yet to vote.

You've got Raiders Army listed with a vote and on this list. Looking back, I don't believe he has unvoted.

[st.cronin]

You're right, the not voted list should be:

hoopsguy, path12, Passacaglia, Mr.DNA, DaddyTorgo, ChiefRum