WW 100: Game over!

[hoopsguy]

I'm still waiting to hear if J23 has anything interesting to say about the nights events, but there don't seem to be many roles remaining (that are not spoken for) that could create confusion here.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm still waiting to hear if J23 has anything interesting to say about the nights events, but there don't seem to be many roles remaining (that are not spoken for) that could create confusion here.

What can he say? As far as I can tell we have him dead to rights here. The only role with a potential BG power didn't submit a night action and there was no night kill so if it wasn't the BG it had to be something. Crimson says he slutted up J23 so that has to be the reason. The only other possible reason would be if the wolves didn't get a kill in for one reason or the other but I just don't buy that at this point in the game.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

That's true, my votes have been out there huh? Like i have a mental illness or something. I guess i'm just crazy like that :-)

Let's lynch hoops tomorrow please :-)

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm still waiting to hear if J23 has anything interesting to say about the nights events, but there don't seem to be many roles remaining (that are not spoken for) that could create confusion here.

I'm very surprised that you failed to even mention this post of DV's.

In fact, I'm surprised by a few things with you this game.

1) As Lathum mentioned a few days ago, I'm surprised you're still alive. Sorry, but it's true.

2) You haven't seemed to be as engaged this game. You are usually a much more involved, helpful villager (even when you're a wolf). I'm suspicious of this. I wonder if it's a ploy to stay out of the limelight and avoid controversy and avoid being lynched.

Of course, you may just be uber-busy, which is fine. But the combination of these 2 items as well as DV's statement have you at the very top of my suspicion list. Right there with J23.

[hoopsguy]

1) I don't really have all that much control over being alive or not alive - as much as I would like to believe otherwise, I'm just one vote (well, technically a smidge more than that this game) for the lynch and have zero say-so in the decisions of the wolves.

2) I felt like I was pretty engaged the first few days, but Thu/Fri were challenging days at the office for me. I have tried to be active in the thread; there is no ploy to stay out of the limelight.

As far as Darth's statement, he has not said anything yet other than intimating his role and suggesting that he wants me lynched.

I was waiting for him to actually come out and say that he scanned me as a wolf before I start making arguments about statistics with seer vs fake-seer within his role. I'm sure it is not witness, as I don't have a power that enables any kind of night action.

If you think I'm the best candidate for a lynch vote, then you should vote for me. I'm positive that I'm not the best candidate and I'm curious why anyone (both you and Jackal so far) would attempt to turn focus elsewhere than J23 being slutted on a night where the wolves got no kill.

[J23]

No idea why there wasn't a kill, but I'm not about to complain.

I didn't receive a message about being slutted, so I'm really not sure where to start on all this.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

1) I don't really have all that much control over being alive or not alive - as much as I would like to believe otherwise, I'm just one vote (well, technically a smidge more than that this game) for the lynch and have zero say-so in the decisions of the wolves.

2) I felt like I was pretty engaged the first few days, but Thu/Fri were challenging days at the office for me. I have tried to be active in the thread; there is no ploy to stay out of the limelight.

As far as Darth's statement, he has not said anything yet other than intimating his role and suggesting that he wants me lynched.

I was waiting for him to actually come out and say that he scanned me as a wolf before I start making arguments about statistics with seer vs fake-seer within his role. I'm sure it is not witness, as I don't have a power that enables any kind of night action.

If you think I'm the best candidate for a lynch vote, then you should vote for me. I'm positive that I'm not the best candidate and I'm curious why anyone (both you and Jackal so far) would attempt to turn focus elsewhere than J23 being slutted on a night where the wolves got no kill.

That sounds suspiciously like a slightly veiled statement suggesting I am trying to protect J23. I assure you that couldn't be further from the truth, and I'm surprised you went there. You know, a person can suspect more than one person at a time, right?

If I could, I'd vote for you both on Monday, but alas, I cannot. So I'll go after J23 first, and then (if nothing changes) I'll focus on you.

I just wanted to point out the fact that you didn't respond at all to a clear accusation. That is odd to me. And as I pointed out earlier, there are a number of other things that I find "off" about you this game.

[PurdueBrad]

My vote will either be J23, which makes sense, or Hoopsguy.

[hoopsguy]

KWhit, if you are a villager and think I am a wolf then why wouldn't I have used my power (Distractor) to bury you back on Day 2? If I moved my vote from PB I wouldn't have even needed to distract, but I would have added one vote and negated the person behind me.

I did not move it because at that time I thought PB was the more likely wolf, but I wasn't so sure that it made sense to try and manipulate the results with anything more than the weight of my single vote. The vote that followed me that day was on CrimsonFox, who was a non-contender at the end.

Assuming you + PB are villagers, then the wolves had to be frustrated with a tie on that day.

If you take a look at the votes every day, I've tried my best to actually downplay that ability rather than put votes in spots where I'm eliminating key votes. I think that Day 2 was the last time that it was really up in the air at the end. Nevertheless, I've still tried to put my votes in well before the deadline each day and be around near the end to move it if there was some kind of late-breaking logic dictating a shift.

[hoopsguy]

Anyway, with J23 not offering up anything and with a lynch mob seemingly moving after me, I think it is about time for me to

VOTE J23

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

KWhit, if you are a villager and think I am a wolf then why wouldn't I have used my power (Distractor) to bury you back on Day 2? If I moved my vote from PB I wouldn't have even needed to distract, but I would have added one vote and negated the person behind me.

Well, I think that we're both likely villagers (not that I know that about PB, that's just my gut feel). So I'm not sure it mattered too much to a wolf which one of us bought it. Also remember that the run on me was fast and happened pretty late. I don't know that a wolf would want to be a deciding vote in my demise when it came out that I was a villager.

I did not move it because at that time I thought PB was the more likely wolf, but I wasn't so sure that it made sense to try and manipulate the results with anything more than the weight of my single vote. The vote that followed me that day was on CrimsonFox, who was a non-contender at the end.

Assuming you + PB are villagers, then the wolves had to be frustrated with a tie on that day.

No doubt. But we already know that one wolf was voting for me (henry) and we may have had more since we don't know which side Render, Schmidty, or PurdueBrad are on. It may be that the wolves didn't want to bunch up their votes on me - especially when it was shown I was a villager. And it still looked like I was going to be lynched. You knew that your role wasn't going to make it be a tie. I assumed that the ballot box stuffer would be careful with his vote to ensure it wouldn't result in a tie either. I was pretty certain I was toast.

If you take a look at the votes every day, I've tried my best to actually downplay that ability rather than put votes in spots where I'm eliminating key votes. I think that Day 2 was the last time that it was really up in the air at the end. Nevertheless, I've still tried to put my votes in well before the deadline each day and be around near the end to move it if there was some kind of late-breaking logic dictating a shift.

Yeah, I mean, I imagine that a wolf would play the role pretty conservatively too. Anyone who even just uses their single vote that results in the lynch of a villager is going to get some heat (I'm a case in point, since that almost led to me getting lynched on day 2). But if someone uses their role to manipulate the vote to nullify someone else's vote and it results in the lynch of a villager, they are probably going to get more attention than they really want.

[KWhit]

Oh, and Hoops...

I'm certainly not sold on voting for you after we string up J23, but I wanted to get you talking a little bit, because I have honestly felt that you haven't been as active/engaged this time as usual.

I'm actually glad that you're still around. I know that it must be frustrating as hell to be lynched or nightkilled early most games, so I'm glad that hasn't happened yet this game.

But, I have my doubts as to your innocence, but it's certainly nothing concrete yet.

[J23]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Anyway, with J23 not offering up anything and with a lynch mob seemingly moving after me, I think it is about time for me to

VOTE J23

Just what am I supposed to offer up? I have as little information as everyone else at this point.

[hoopsguy]

J23, either you are a wolf or a victim of some tough circumstances. Assuming the latter, what do you think the right move is today?

[hoopsguy]

KWhit, I've got mixed feelings on being around for the second week this game. Ordinarily, I would be delighted as it doesn't happen all that often for me. But the end of last week was pretty challenging on the work front and my home life is going to make access a bear for me if I last too long into next week. So this would have been a game where I probably would have been just fine with being a Night 2 kill or something like that, all things considered.

I think you'll find that I'm about as talkative as they come in terms of WW, this game or any other. Outside of Day 1 I haven't found myself on the defensive in the vote quite as much as I frequently do, which may have a little something to do with the notion that I'm not talking as much. But I think overall I've been pretty close to my normal post count ... (shrug) I guess something like that is kind of in the eye of the beholder.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Guess not.

heh, definitely forgot DV was the schizo and must have been very tired when i wrote that post

that means it's hard to look elsewhere than J23, but i'm listening

[PurdueBrad]

Oops, thought I had already done this.

vote J23

I'll be on and off today as we've got the day off.

[KWhit]

I'll go ahead and do this:

J23

[KWhit]

Oops.

VOTE J23

[path12]

He's been on my radar for awhile.

VOTE J23

[CrimsonFox]

VOTE J23

And we're back...

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by saldana

i enjoy the fact that you all drilled me and not one person even says Oops

whatever

dude, we're sorry but you acted guilty as hell. Pardon yourself already and let's finish this.

[ntndeacon]

Like y'all said. The lack of night kill is pretty damning.
Vote J23

[RendeR]

Vote J23


Everyone else is....

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I suppose the schizo with a BG hit is the best explanation

BG just means that the BG gets eaten instead of the wolf. In which case there would have been a wolf victim. I think the Schizo becoming slut would be the only thing a schizo could do to keep a wolf from killing.

[CrimsonFox]

There seems to be this big injoke about hoopsguy?

Is he somehow always a wolf? is he a good liar? Does he play tons of WW? I've pretty much treated all the accusations against hoops as "Let's get him otherwise he'll screw us again like he always does" jokes.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

There seems to be this big injoke about hoopsguy?

Is he somehow always a wolf? is he a good liar? Does he play tons of WW? I've pretty much treated all the accusations against hoops as "Let's get him otherwise he'll screw us again like he always does" jokes.

Hoops has a IMO(sorry Hoops) often overstated ability to catch wolves and as a result he is often unfairly killed early, most of the time d1 by the wolves in games. As a result when he is alive on d2 he is often immediately lynched by the village.

Note the "Hoops is alive, he must be a wolf," comments people have already thrown out this game.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

BG just means that the BG gets eaten instead of the wolf. In which case there would have been a wolf victim. I think the Schizo becoming slut would be the only thing a schizo could do to keep a wolf from killing.

Oh I see now. Weak bodyguard gets killed, but regular BG doesn't get killed.

So Slut or bodyguard would work, that's 2/6 of the time he prevents that wolf from killing.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Hoops has a IMO(sorry Hoops) often overstated ability to catch wolves and as a result he is often unfairly killed early, most of the time d1 by the wolves in games. As a result when he is alive on d2 he is often immediately lynched by the village.

Note the "Hoops is alive, he must be a wolf," comments people have already thrown out this game.

yup noted

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

There seems to be this big injoke about hoopsguy?

Is he somehow always a wolf? is he a good liar? Does he play tons of WW? I've pretty much treated all the accusations against hoops as "Let's get him otherwise he'll screw us again like he always does" jokes.

The think you need to keep in mind is many of us have been playing WW together for almost 5 years. There are a ton of inside jokes, etc..

[Lathum]

Vote The Jackal

Something just hasn't seemed quiet right about him this game.

[Darth Vilus]

Eh, if u guys want to kill j23 then that's fine. I really think we're gonna get our asses handed to us by the wolves.

VOTE J23

He doesn't seem right with me either, or else i would've voted Hoops again

And Hoops,this is for u.

Hoops, you're a wolf. I scanned you. Happy now?

[hoopsguy]

Darth, that is great but you do understand that your role gives you both a real seer and a false seer, right?

You are the only type seer we have left (I'm assuming this is the case since no one has challenged your role) but you are more likely to hang a villager than a wolf with that role. That is both the math of the role (in a game with more villagers than wolves, and what I assume is an equally likely chance of getting true/false seer) and the actuality of your results.

If you had said that you had Witnessed me then I would call you a liar because I have no night actions.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, is there an equal chance of Darth ending up with any of the different roles on any given night? Or does his role shuffle through the different roles in some pre-set order?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Darth, that is great but you do understand that your role gives you both a real seer and a false seer, right?

You are the only type seer we have left (I'm assuming this is the case since no one has challenged your role) but you are more likely to hang a villager than a wolf with that role. That is both the math of the role (in a game with more villagers than wolves, and what I assume is an equally likely chance of getting true/false seer) and the actuality of your results.

If you had said that you had Witnessed me then I would call you a liar because I have no night actions.

I thought it was random like a die roll myself. He cooses one person to target and Danny rolls a d6 and that's the role done to that person.

[hoopsguy]

Darth, to expand on what I said earlier - if you scanned someone, they should probably die period. Because if you scanned them as a villager they could be a wolf with a bad scan. Just like I'm a villager with a bad scan.

That pretty much sucks for me, but it is the nature of your role. The highest value you would have is getting a witness on someone with a night action because there is no inverted case with that. Similarly, all of your bodyguard actions are good for the person you are protecting, if not good for you. But for the night you are a seer, the results are dubious across the board.

I accept that I'm going to get strung up as a result, but it kind of sucks that I'm the figurative egg that is going to be broken to create this omelet. Which is part of the reason that I wasn't terribly chatty on this topic right away when you (Darth) weren't around - because you seemed determined to see me lynched without the remotest acknowledgment that you aren't a Seer, but you are a Schizo.

If we get a wolf today and blow the lynch on me tomorrow, so be it. We should probably still be in a reasonable place to win this game with the remaining COT. But I would rather that we get a lynch today and have something happen tonight that leads to an actual wolf rather than lynching me.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Darth, that is great but you do understand that your role gives you both a real seer and a false seer, right?

You are the only type seer we have left (I'm assuming this is the case since no one has challenged your role) but you are more likely to hang a villager than a wolf with that role. That is both the math of the role (in a game with more villagers than wolves, and what I assume is an equally likely chance of getting true/false seer) and the actuality of your results.

If you had said that you had Witnessed me then I would call you a liar because I have no night actions.

ugh false seer. crap forgot about that. So his seer ability is pretty worthless because even HE doesn't know if who he sees is a wolf.

hoops, what is your role?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Danny, is there an equal chance of Darth ending up with any of the different roles on any given night? Or does his role shuffle through the different roles in some pre-set order?

Random die roll for which role, so there is an equal chance of getting each role on any given night. Seer scans work where wolf shows up wolf and villager shows up villager. False seer scans work where wolf shows up villager and villager shows up wolf.

[The Jackal]

honestly forgot there was gameplay today because the holiday feels like the weekend! but i also thought i'd voted and i haven't yet, have i

vote j23

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote The Jackal

Something just hasn't seemed quiet right about him this game.

after the game you'll understand that it honestly was me not being around as much as normal because of my computer crapping out 2 days before the game started

but if there's any questions you have for me, please ask, i am a villager and would like to convince you i'm not the way to go

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

Random die roll for which role, so there is an equal chance of getting each role on any given night. Seer scans work where wolf shows up wolf and villager shows up villager. False seer scans work where wolf shows up villager and villager shows up wolf.

Wow that's really neat and not as worthless as I thought. Still it will complicate things for people we are on the fence about.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Wow that's really neat and not as worthless as I thought. Still it will complicate things for people we are on the fence about.

Eh, sounds nearly completely worthless to me. So we know that Darth Scanned Hoops.

We don't know which role Darth got. Its 50/50 that he either got the seer or false seer role.

We do know the result showed Hoops as a wolf.

So if Darth got the seer role then Hoops is a wolf. If Darth got the false seer then Hoops is a villager.

If you want to draw conclusions from that then go ahead. I will take it for it is, a complete unknown.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

ugh false seer. crap forgot about that. So his seer ability is pretty worthless because even HE doesn't know if who he sees is a wolf.

hoops, what is your role?

Distractor - the person following me on a vote gets their vote nullified. I mentioned it over the weekend when talking with KWhit about his suspicions. I told him that if I was a wolf that I would have wanted badly to avoid a tie on Day 2. I further indicated that non-action down the stretch should at least suggest to him (assuming he is not a wolf) that my nullifying a vote on you instead of one of the lead candidates should at the very least suggest that I was not being malicious with my power.

[The Jackal]

And I completed missed what DV said, way to hide it at the end of a post! The problem of the seer vs false seer makes a lynch decision on hoops not automatic, though.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Eh, sounds nearly completely worthless to me. So we know that Darth Scanned Hoops.

We don't know which role Darth got. Its 50/50 that he either got the seer or false seer role.

We do know the result showed Hoops as a wolf.
.

OK, so someone who is a math guy correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't that put it at 75% Hoops is a wolf?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Eh, sounds nearly completely worthless to me. So we know that Darth Scanned Hoops.

We don't know which role Darth got. Its 50/50 that he either got the seer or false seer role.

We do know the result showed Hoops as a wolf.

So if Darth got the seer role then Hoops is a wolf. If Darth got the false seer then Hoops is a villager.

If you want to draw conclusions from that then go ahead. I will take it for it is, a complete unknown.

Well, I'm still alive so I must be a wolf

Seriously, the power is useful with the Witness role. Or the bodyguard role. Or even the weak bodyguard role, in that it stops the wolves from killing who they want to kill.

I would argue that the math suggests that me scanning as a wolf is more likely to indicate that I'm a villager than I'm a wolf, but I know that comes off sounding like BS when people want to catch wolves. Every person should do their own math, react to my posts, and draw their own conclusions. I'll save my heated arguments for a time where I'm actually on the block.

I'll ask Darth to not target me again, as I'm likely as safe as a kitten for at least the next day or two while the wolves try to build their case against me. Better to spend the power on people who may actually be the night kill in hopes that the bodyguard power actually comes up big.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, so someone who is a math guy correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't that put it at 75% Hoops is a wolf?

I'm a math guy, but you probably would not trust my stats.

But, lets use some hypothetical numbers.

Assuming 11 players, 8 villagers and 3 wolves.

50% seer, marking a random player, will get a wolf 30% of the time (3 out of 10, excluding him).

50% false seer, making a random player, will falsely condemn a villager 70% of the time (7 out of 10, excluding him). Falsely clear a wolf 30% of the time.

15% = correctly getting wolf
35% = correctly clearing villager
15% = incorrect clearing a wolf
35% = hosing a villager by flagging him as a wolf

I'm pretty sure that is the correct math, but will welcome the observations of others. Feel free to use the correct number of players/wolves if you are privy to that info ...

[The Jackal]

going out for drinks with a friend, back after the results

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, so someone who is a math guy correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't that put it at 75% Hoops is a wolf?

Without doing the math(I hate math) my gut would say that 75% is a huge stretch.

[CrimsonFox]

yeah sounds like whoever invented schizo should get a facepunch

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

yeah sounds like whoever invented schizo should get a facepunch

Hehe, sorry!