Invasion of Ukraine

[Coffee Warlord]

This would be the perfect time for Germany to announce to Russia that the people of Konigsberg held a vote, decided they were German again, and they're taking back that region, thank you.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

This would be the perfect time for Germany to announce to Russia that the people of Konigsberg held a vote, decided they were German again, and they're taking back that region, thank you.

Konigsberg Bridge Problem!

Was in Europe this fall, close enough that T-Mobile told me my signal was coming off of the Russian towers. Talked to some of the folks there about it. It would make a lot of sense to be either Lithuanian or Polish and historically has been part of those places. However, nobody wants a large part of their country to have a large population of ethnic Russians that would be a significant political voting block. The only way it could go to someone else is if the people were moved off of the lands and there's a myriad of reasons why that's not really a viable option.

SI

[GrantDawg]

Widespread bombing throughout Ukraine concentrated in civilian areas. A missile hit a large park in downtown Kiev leaving a massive crater. An earlier report from the defense ministry said they shot down 45 of 72 ballistic missiles.

[bhlloy]

But Russian state media said the bridge attack was a war crime, so probably fine right? Please ignore all the previous attacks on civilians and mass graves. Look over here, Nazis!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Widespread bombing throughout Ukraine concentrated in civilian areas. A missile hit a large park in downtown Kiev leaving a massive crater. An earlier report from the defense ministry said they shot down 45 of 72 ballistic missiles.

CNN article said infrastructure was struck and how power was out in several cities. It would be great if Ukraine can attack the bridge again.

Interestingly, there's speculation that it wasn't Ukraine but possibly some infighting between FSB vs Russian Army.

There are power outages across multiple Ukrainian regions on Monday after they were hit by a devastating wave of Russian airstrikes, according to local officials.

The region of Khmelnytskyi, which lies west of Kyiv, suffered a “massive missile attack,” damaging one of the area’s infrastructure facilities, Serhii Hamalii, head of the region, said on Telegram. “Currently, there is no electricity supply, electric transport does not work, water supply is suspended, traffic lights do not work.”

Closer to Kyiv, two missiles were launched at Zhytomyr, Gov. Vitalii Bunechko said on Telegram. One was downed but another hit a “critical infrastructure object,” Bunechko said, resulting in partial disruption to the region’s energy supply.

East of the capital, the Poltava region in central Ukraine also announced widespread power outages.

“This morning is the most difficult in recent times. Russians are massively hitting with missiles and kamikaze drones,” Dmytro Lunin, head of the regional military administration, said on Telegram.

“Now there is no electricity and water supply in Poltava … There may be problems with electricity and water for some time, but all services are already working to restore it.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

But Russian state media said the bridge attack was a war crime, so probably fine right? Please ignore all the previous attacks on civilians and mass graves. Look over here, Nazis!

I'm sure that park in Central Kyiv had strategic military value.

SI

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm sure that park in Central Kyiv had strategic military value.

SI

Hey, it might have been the high ground until they hit it with that missile. You know how important the high ground is.

[albionmoonlight]

For so long, the idea of nuclear deterrence has been mutually assured destruction. If you launch nukes, then we'll launch nukes, and we will all die.

I am interested in seeing several people talking about how the deterrence/response here won't be nukes for nukes. Instead, we will make the war explicitly about removing Putin from power through conventional means.

The turned tables is that by failing so spectacularly in invading Ukraine, Russia showed that its army is weak enough to make Russia vulnerable to conventional invasion.

[Solecismic]

Russia vulnerable to conventional invasion? I don't think that's even remotely possible.

What we've learned, instead, is that our ability to blow things up has made it impossible to take over a sovereign country defended with modern weaponry.

Unless you flat-out nuke it. Or do what Russia did with Mariupol. Then you're just taking over uninhabitable dirt. Which might be what Russia has in mind, anyway.

No, the tables haven't turned at all. The only one winning this war is China - and that's because their proxy is incurring all the costs of invasion.

[PilotMan]

Yeah, there's no threat to Russia from conventional weapons. Not land war in Russia, even with next to no defenses. Too big, bad weather, too easy to defend with pockets of resistance.

I never, ever, in a million years, thought that Ukraine would be able to hold out this long. Never. So it's nice being wrong. trump clearly has shown what his play would have been had he been the leader, by saying that the only way to peace is for Ukraine to negotiate terms of surrender basically. So we know how that would have gone had he been in charge.

It sort of makes me think that Putin was planning this all along, and had expected trump to win again, where he knew trump wouldn't do what Biden has done, along with NATO, to bolster the defenses of Ukraine. And he figured that he's built it up, we can win quickly, the world will back down. The defense and global response has been very, very impressive. The superiority of our weapons is legit.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

For so long, the idea of nuclear deterrence has been mutually assured destruction. If you launch nukes, then we'll launch nukes, and we will all die.

I am interested in seeing several people talking about how the deterrence/response here won't be nukes for nukes. Instead, we will make the war explicitly about removing Putin from power through conventional means.

The difference is strategic vs tactical nukes. For strategic ICBM, yeah it'll be MAD.

For tactical, assuming inside Ukraine, the calculus I've been reading is it won't be as effective against military units because they are so disperse. Now if they did a tactical nuke in Kyiv, then all bets are off.

I've read that if they used tactical nukes (assuming against military, not big cities), that'll our conventional response will be far more damaging as we can target very specific stuff (e.g. target rich environment).

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The difference is strategic vs tactical nukes. For strategic ICBM, yeah it'll be MAD.

For tactical, assuming inside Ukraine, the calculus I've been reading is it won't be as effective against military units because they are so disperse. Now if they did a tactical nuke in Kyiv, then all bets are off.

I've read that if they used tactical nukes (assuming against military, not big cities), that'll our conventional response will be far more damaging as we can target very specific stuff (e.g. target rich environment).

If you're Putin, at this point, isn't your first nuke(s) aimed at Kiev? You figure you're going to get a full western response no matter what you do so why not try to cut off the head like you did from the start? Like why bother to, say, drop a couple of small nukes near the forces defending Zaporizhzhia or Kharkiv? Those are lands you want and will need to defend if you can take them back conventionally, even if conventionally means bombing them to rubble, rolling in, and rebuilding.

NATO's going to immediately throw up a no-fly zone, respond with massive (probably conventional) strategic bombardments, and use every covert tactic available to respond - why not make those first missiles count since they're going to be the last ones you can launch for a while.

SI

[Edward64]

I can see several reasons why he would not use a tactical nuke on Kyiv.

1) World condemnation will be much greater. Essentially, nuke Kyiv much bigger deal than nuke the counteroffensive of Ukrainian-X army. Much more innocent civilian deaths

2) NATO response will be greater in proportionality between nuke Kyiv vs Ukrainian-X army. I've read the US has communicated what will happen if X, Y, Z happens. I assume it lays out these scenarios

3) Arguably, he will lose some more support within Russia. My guess is Russian civilians will more easily accept nuking Ukrainian-X army more so than Kyiv full off civilians

But yes, a cornered dictator, surrounded by sycophants is hard to predict. He has no good options, but there are some bad options better than others.

[Edward64]

Below clip shows a Russian soldier in a foxhole under bombardment. He is making the sign of the cross several times. The old saying "there are no atheist in foxholes" rings true.

(There is a longer clip than the one below floating around somewhere with the actual shelling).

Russian Soldier asking God for Forgiveness : RussiaUkraineWar2022

[albionmoonlight]

Elon Musk Spoke to Putin Before Tweeting Ukraine Peace Plan: Report

[albionmoonlight]

One advantage that Putin has is that we keep giving insecure idiots (Trump, Musk) lots of power and influence, which Putin can then turn to his advantage.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

One advantage that Putin has is that we keep giving insecure idiots (Trump, Musk) lots of power and influence, which Putin can then turn to his advantage.

I really don't see Musk moving the dial much.

Different story with Trump. His 2022 MAGA candidates may become a nuisance but nothing compare to Trump being re-elected in 2024. But I doubt the war will last that long (or let's hope not).

[Groundhog]

Who has their own head deepest up their own ass, Musk or Trump? I think Musk to be completely honest.

[Edward64]

I'm skeptical about only $16.8B spent so far, I wonder if there is some funny sleight-of-hand going on. Bit if true, it's deal of the century ... unless it leads to nuclear war.

@SecDef
: With
@POTUS
leadership, U.S. security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s all-out invasion on Feb 24 now totals some $16.8 billion. I’m deeply grateful to our valued allies and partners, who continue to come forward with important assistance packages of their own.

[PilotMan]

It was silly to support the war in Ukraine if Russia was going to nuke them all along. We should have agreed with trump and just forced Ukraine to accept terms of surrender or we'd stop giving them any money and weapons to defend themselves.

/s

[Edward64]

First Drone vs Drone combat?

Reddit - Dive into anything

[Edward64]

I'm sure he was scared as shit with a drone following & hovering over him. Would freak me out also. But I would have crawled a couple more meters into the woods (to hide) instead of flipping off the drone.

Reddit - Dive into anything

[Edward64]

Not sure what's going on. Below has been reported in reddit (and now BBC). Could be there'll be a major push into Kherson (which is the only Ukrainian capitol taken in the invasion) and reclaiming it will be huge. Kherson is also the biggest city closest to & relatively near Crimea.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63243313

The Russian-installed leader of Ukraine's southern Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, has called on civilians to evacuate - citing daily rocket attacks by advancing Ukrainian forces.

He urged them to "save themselves" by going to Russia for "leisure and study", and asked for Moscow's help.

His call was later backed up by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin in a message on state television.

Ukraine rejects accusations that it targets its own civilians.

Its troops have recently retaken some areas of north-western Kherson, closing in on the regional capital, Kherson city.

[Edward64]

Elon Musk may be an ass, and we can quibble about $, but I do think it's reasonable that DoD pays for the Starlink services.

Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab | CNN Politics

Since they first started arriving in Ukraine last spring, the Starlink satellite internet terminals made by Elon Musk’s SpaceX have been a vital source of communication for Ukraine’s military, allowing it to fight and stay connected even as cellular phone and internet networks have been destroyed in its war with Russia.

So far roughly 20,000 Starlink satellite units have been donated to Ukraine, with Musk tweeting on Friday the “operation has cost SpaceX $80 million and will exceed $100 million by the end of the year.”

But those charitable contributions could be coming to an end, as SpaceX has warned the Pentagon that it may stop funding the service in Ukraine unless the US military kicks in tens of millions of dollars per month.

Documents obtained by CNN show that last month Musk’s SpaceX sent a letter to the Pentagon saying it can no longer continue to fund the Starlink service as it has. The letter also requested that the Pentagon take over funding for Ukraine’s government and military use of Starlink, which SpaceX claims would cost more than $120 million for the rest of the year and could cost close to $400 million for the next 12 months.

[Groundhog]

Honest question - did the Pentagon ask him to do it in the first place? Not downplaying the impact Starlink has had, but it feels to me like SpaceX setup an agreement with Ukraine and is now demanding the US to pay SpaceX on an ongoing basis to continue to support it. SpaceX is a private company, not an arm of the US government.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Honest question - did the Pentagon ask him to do it in the first place? Not downplaying the impact Starlink has had, but it feels to me like SpaceX setup an agreement with Ukraine and is now demanding the US to pay SpaceX on an ongoing basis to continue to support it. SpaceX is a private company, not an arm of the US government.

I guess it's possible the DoD asked him to do it in the background, but from what I recall, he volunteered in those early days.

I am assuming Starlink is still important & vital to Ukraine ... and therefore, to national interest (and arguably national security). Sounds that he should be fairly compensated (e.g. with $ for maybe promise of a contract).

[Flasch186]

Poor optics considering his latest pandering to Putin but I agree that private companies should get compensated for governmental activities like war.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Groundhog]

Sure don't disagree, but was it put out to tender and SpaceX were selected, or did they just put up their hands and now want ongoing costs covered? I doubt there was no other solution to this problem, or that SpaceX's solution is the most cost efficient way to ensure steady internet connectivity to Ukrainians, but hey, they came to save the day, and now for just almost half a billion over the next 12 months Ukraine will have internet.

[Edward64]

Wasn't put up to tender, it was they put up their hands.

I actually think Starlink was the best solution to the problem early on (but maybe not the most cost effective). So I do think they did "save" the day, and yeah, they want $ now.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Wasn't put up to tender, it was they put up their hands.

I actually think Starlink was the best solution to the problem early on (but maybe not the most cost effective). So I do think they did "save" the day, and yeah, they want $ now.

Yeah, almost certainly it was the best solution at the onset of the invasion. SpaceX are entitled to compensation for the ongoing service, but I don't think the US should feel (or be made to feel by Musk) obligated to pay for it, or that SpaceX should be considered the best solution on an ongoing basis either.

[Edward64]

I know I don't like to think about negotiations as Ukraine seems to have the momentum. But I don't think it hurts to begin cursory "what are you thinking" talks (e.g. maybe through the UN).

It may lead to something (but probably nothing), and it'll delay and/or lessen the talk of tactical nukes.

Kremlin says its goals in Ukraine may be achieved through negotiations

On Thursday, the Kremlin said the goals of its "special military operation" in Ukraine are unchanged, but they may be achieved through talks. The statement is the latest example of a change of tone following a series of defeats for Russian forces.

[PilotMan]

Tell us though...what are you thinking?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Tell us though...what are you thinking?

As reddit would say, low effort (class) post. Keep it up though, don't mind padding my post count by responding to triggered trolling.

[Edward64]

From US Senator Chris Murphy.

I really like the idea but unfortunately, we are still somewhat dependent on the approx 5% of heavy crude we get from them.

Now if we can be real friends with Venezuela, I'd think that changes the calculus.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/st...htmode%3Dfalse

3/ Second, there are U.S. owned and operated Patriot anti-missile batteries in Saudi Arabia right now. If Saudi Arabia isn't willing to take the side of Ukraine and U.S. over Russia, why should we keep these Patriots in Saudi Arabia when Ukraine and our NATO allies need them?

[Edward64]

Nice.

You're still an asshole, and I support you getting some money or quid pro quo from the DoD, but this is good.

‘The hell with it’: Elon Musk tweets SpaceX will ‘keep funding Ukraine govt for free’ amid Starlink controversy

[CrimsonFox]

Vladimir Putin's head of Ukraine mobilisation dies in possible suicide: Report | World News - Hindustan Times

[CrimsonFox]

it's so awful that people keep getting suicided

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Honest question - did the Pentagon ask him to do it in the first place? Not downplaying the impact Starlink has had, but it feels to me like SpaceX setup an agreement with Ukraine and is now demanding the US to pay SpaceX on an ongoing basis to continue to support it. SpaceX is a private company, not an arm of the US government.

Personally I think Elon is pissed that he lost out on the nearly billion dollar grant that he applied for and is trying to make up the money some other way.

ETA:

https://www.cnet.com/home/internet/e...ternet-access/

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Not sure what's going on. Below has been reported in reddit (and now BBC). Could be there'll be a major push into Kherson (which is the only Ukrainian capitol taken in the invasion) and reclaiming it will be huge. Kherson is also the biggest city closest to & relatively near Crimea.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63243313

According to twitter today. I'm hoping it's real and successful.

Ukraine just initiated a media blackout on Kherson news. That’s what Kyiv does when it begins big military ops. The final push to liberate the city is beginning…now.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Nice.

You're still an asshole, and I support you getting some money or quid pro quo from the DoD, but this is good.

Wait? Elon Musk made a giant stink about something and then tried to spin it to make him look like the good guy, while grabbing headlines? No way!

SI

[sterlingice]

Once the offensive started, Kherson was going to be Ukrainian again unless the whole offensive stalled. It's on the wrong side of the river for Russia to defend. Of course, we'll see what atrocities happened there and how much worth defending is still there.

The unlikely to happen offensive that Ukraine really needs to do is find some way to take back Melitopol or Mariupol or something else in that area all the way to the Azov Sea to split Russia's land in half again. That's why the Ukranians held out so long at Mariupol. They knew that (if) when it fell, it would give Russia a land bridge to Crimea.

SI

[Edward64]

Ukraine requested a news blackout a couple days ago regarding their operations. So the consensus is there is/will be a major push sometime. There's not a lot of news being reported right now.

Rybar is a pro-Russian military blogger. Regardless of his bias, he does report on happenings. He posted this just now. A good sign I think but don't really know.

Rybar in English
@rybar_en
·
39m
They write that there's already an understanding that the 1-to-5 ratio that has formed around Kherson may not play out well for the Russian troops. That various scenarios are being planned, including the worst ones.

If and when Ukraine takes Kherson, they'll be in position to threaten Crimea. Reddit armchair generals think Crimea will be left for last as it'll require a lot of resources & effort. But just as Russia has been able to cause havoc in rest of Ukraine with their drones, I'd think Ukraine will be able to do the same over Crimea. If I lived in Crimea now, I'd be making plans to go somewhere safer right now.

[SirFozzie]

The bad news is that the R's and DeSantis are basically telling Russia "Hold out till we get power and we'll stop funding them"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...aine-mccarthy/

[sterlingice]

I would think Crimea was last on the list. A lot harder to take land that's been "colonized" (and fortified) for the last decade.

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Ukraine requested a news blackout a couple days ago regarding their operations. So the consensus is there is/will be a major push sometime. There's not a lot of news being reported right now.

Rybar is a pro-Russian military blogger. Regardless of his bias, he does report on happenings. He posted this just now. A good sign I think but don't really know.

Great timing. Just saw this pop up on CNN front page. Something is definitely happening in Kherson.

Live updates: Russia's war in Ukraine | CNN

New Russian commander calls situation in Kherson region 'very difficult'

The Russian-backed leader in Ukraine’s Kherson region announced Tuesday that there would be a further “organized relocation” of civilians away from front-line settlements.

“I took the difficult but correct decision to announce the organized relocation of the civilian population of Beryslav, Bilozerka, Snihurivka and Oleksandrivka communities to the left bank of the Dnipro river,” Vladimir Saldo said on Telegram, referring to the eastern bank of the river.

“This decision was prompted by the creation of large-scale defensive fortifications so that any attack could be repelled. There is no place for civilians where the military operate. Let the Russian army do its job,” he said.

Saldo said that any civilians who decided to move on “to the regions of Russia” would be given assistance with housing.

[Edward64]

Have to read more about the details, but at first blush, not gonna work.

GREAT WALL OF FINLAND: Finnish politicians have announced plans to construct a wall along the border with Russia. The barrier is set to cover 260 km of the country's 1300 km shared border with neighboring Russia and will be completed within five years

Unless it looks like this.

[Edward64]

I've been hearing differing estimates on our support to Ukraine. I posted below in earlier Oct. The quote of $16.8B was suspiciously low.

@SecDef
: With
@POTUS
leadership, U.S. security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s all-out invasion on Feb 24 now totals some $16.8 billion. I’m deeply grateful to our valued allies and partners, who continue to come forward with important assistance packages of their own.

Below article puts it at $50B + another $12.3B through mid-Dec. Which seems more reasonable. I wonder what the differing assumptions are between the 2 quotes.

But regardless, still a pretty good deal for the US as the $62B has presumably created a new western ally for years to come, damaged & exposed Russia for the next X years, coalesced NATO/EU even closer, given a preview to China on any possible Taiwan invasion, likely helped our domestic military complex get more future orders etc.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...a4d238ec076f4a

In private, GOP lawmakers who support aid to Ukraine say there could be an opportunity to pass one more tranche in an end-of-year spending package, before Republicans potentially take control in the next Congress.

Last month, lawmakers approved about $12.3 billion in Ukraine-related aid as part of a bill that finances the federal government through Dec. 16. The money included aid for the Ukrainian military as well as money to help the country’s government provide basic services to its citizens.

That comes on top of more than $50 billion provided in two previous bills.

McCarthy is an extremist, if McCaul can be believed, more oversight & accountability, is reasonable IMO. We're starting to talk about real money now.

Rep. Michael McCaul, the ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee ... “I do think you have broad bipartisan support for what’s happening in Ukraine, but I think you’ll see, if we get the majority, more oversight and accountability in terms of the funding and where the money’s going, and I think the American taxpayers deserve that,” the Texas Republican told Bloomberg Business on Tuesday.

[Flasch186]

How was the oversight and accountability of those Covid funds? SMH... I'm sure their intentions are pure.

[sterlingice]

GOP plan to cut Social Security, Medicare in 2023 comes into view

They've already said they'll also be using the debt ceiling negotiation to withhold Ukraine funding but also cut Medicare and Social Security.

SI

[Edward64]

One of the Russian talk shows (and believe its a popular one) with a guest/war correspondent on the ground at Kherson. Basically, it'll be difficult next 2 months but they plan to defend Kherson but expect battlefield losses, Ukraine attacking civilian structures etc. I'm pretty sure the main talking points have been scripted and agreed to already. So supposedly preparing the Russian public that Kherson will probably fall.

Russian state TV is preparing the viewers for the loss of Kherson and other territories - YouTube

It's fascinating how the narratives are so different between what we read/hear in the West vs Russians. Atrocities (with photographic, video evidence) that we believe Russians did, they basically said it's Ukrainian Nazi's that did them. Who's attacking innocent civilian structures, who "forced" the special operation etc.

I'd consider this a true, masterclass in "gaslighting" (but not near as bad as NK though). But yeah, the winners write the history books and it don't look good for Russia.