WW: Scooby Doo and the Horrible Halloween Party of Doom! Game over - Monsters win!! - Page 24

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 04:41 PM

GoldenEagle is the cultist and is trying to signal the wolves to come after him tonight.

That is my read on those last couple of posts.

Coffee Warlord · 10-28-2009, 04:42 PM

So we waste tomorrow's vote, since no wolf in their right mind is going to go against that one.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

They gain a cultist for one night only. We just lynch him the next day.

Not really because they would not have killed off the bodyguard that night so we would still not know which one is lying.

Coffee Warlord · 10-28-2009, 04:42 PM

(and that was in response to KWhit, not EF)

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 04:43 PM

Is there any play in which GE makes a fake reveal if he's a wolf?

For that matter, why would MartinD fake reveal if he's a wolf.

It doesn't quite add up for me.

We can't be CERTAIN who to believe. In which case, I think it wise to let them both live until the wolves kill the real bodyguard. And if they don't do it for us - great, we get more bodyguard block chances.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Not really because they would not have killed off the bodyguard that night so we would still not know which one is lying.

Okay, fine. Then 2 nights from now. Whatever. We still play the normal game until the wolves either get blocked or decide to kill the real BG. Then we KNOW that we're lynching the right person and we've gained (possibly) a couple of extra BG blocks than we would have.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

GoldenEagle is the cultist and is trying to signal the wolves to come after him tonight.

That is my read on those last couple of posts.

I came up with that theory first. I have copyrighted it so you can't use against me.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 04:45 PM

Either GE or MartinD is the cultist, hoping to get attacked and converted. My guess is that GE is the cultist but hat is just an early take on it.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

GoldenEagle is the cultist and is trying to signal the wolves to come after him tonight.

That is my read on those last couple of posts.

Could be.

But we know that we need to lynch either GE or MartinD. One of them is the bodyguard, and one of them is evil. The best play, IMO, is to play "chicken" with the wolves. We ignore them both until the real BG is killed. Then we lynch the other one.

Easy-peasy-Japaneasy.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Okay, fine. Then 2 nights from now. Whatever. We still play the normal game until the wolves either get blocked or decide to kill the real BG. Then we KNOW that we're lynching the right person and we've gained (possibly) a couple of extra BG blocks than we would have.

By then we could be looking at end game.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 04:47 PM

I don't what Martin was thinking, other than the fact that he was hoping to get kidnapped or he was tired of playing the game and hoping to get killed.

Believe me, I would not have revealed unless I felt it was necessary. I did not want Martin gaining any trust.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Could be.

But we know that we need to lynch either GE or MartinD. One of them is the bodyguard, and one of them is evil. The best play, IMO, is to play "chicken" with the wolves. We ignore them both until the real BG is killed. Then we lynch the other one.

Easy-peasy-Japaneasy.

A side benefit to this is that the wolves may not want to lynch the real BG right away to keep us guessing and to use the cultist for an extra turn or two. That benefits us as we get additional nights of possible BG blocks. Every extra day that the BG is alive is good for us.

JAG · 10-28-2009, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Hmmm...

I'm almost thinking that we let GE and MartinD both live.

Make the wolves do our dirty work for us. I assume that they will try to kill off the real bodyguard, at which point we kill off the one that's left standing.

I agree with that. Look, this is the second day in a row ntn was getting close to voted off and we get a reveal to potentially put a half to it. That seems unusual to me.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 04:49 PM

Fine, I can live with that.

UNVOTE MARTIND

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

By then we could be looking at end game.

We still have 12 players in the game, right? We're pretty far from endgame.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 04:51 PM

So how many reveals have we had in the past 24 hours? Four?

Jeez!

JAG · 10-28-2009, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

...

Quote:

Igor - ...and if he is ever kidnapped, he will join the Monsters; however, he will not be able to perform a kidnapping, nor can he PM with the Monsters. He will know their identities though, and they will know his. He will then win if the Monsters win, but won't count as one with regard to win conditions. Unless he is kidnapped, he counts as a normal Party-goer.

The bolded are the relevant parts. Unless he gets kidnapped, he's a normal Party-goer. If he is kidnapped, then all the other stuff written applies. That's how I read it.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 04:53 PM

Put it in Lathum's hands by voting him. There are one of two results:

1) He is the duke and he makes his selection - I feel confident in his villager ability to interpret the information that we have.

2) He is a wolf who knows the duke role is not in the game. In this case we look at GE next as he came forward with clearing GE. It becomes a HUGE gain for us at that point.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 04:55 PM

I'm going to have to run to pick up the kids in just a minute. I'll be back by deadline, but maybe not too much before then.

Before I go, though, I just want to reiterate that we should put the MartinD and GE issue on the back burner. It would suck to be wrong about it and lynch the real BG tonight.

Let's let the wolves tell us who's telling the truth.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

We still have 12 players in the game, right? We're pretty far from endgame.

We're 8-3-1.

If we get steered wrong today and they gain the convert it will be 7-4. One more wrong guess and it's 5-4. We would have one chance to guess right between MartinD and GE at that point or we lose. So yes, it could be end game if we wait two more days.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Put it in Lathum's hands by voting him. There are one of two results:

1) He is the duke and he makes his selection - I feel confident in his villager ability to interpret the information that we have.

2) He is a wolf who knows the duke role is not in the game. In this case we look at GE next as he came forward with clearing GE. It becomes a HUGE gain for us at that point.

What makes you think there is even a possibility that there is no Duke role in the game? And why would you think that a wolf would know that?

I don't like that plan as it uses up Lathum's ability which could come in handy later. And it will give a much less useful voting record for today.

JAG · 10-28-2009, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

A side benefit to this is that the wolves may not want to lynch the real BG right away to keep us guessing and to use the cultist for an extra turn or two. That benefits us as we get additional nights of possible BG blocks. Every extra day that the BG is alive is good for us.

The only downside is we won't know if we get a real block or a conversion. Still, it's a risk for the wolves as well.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

We're 8-3-1.

If we get steered wrong today and they gain the convert it will be 7-4. One more wrong guess and it's 5-4. We would have one chance to guess right between MartinD and GE at that point or we lose. So yes, it could be end game if we wait two more days.

Well, we don't have to vote for Martin or GE tonight, anyway. We could wait for tomorrow to vote for one of them. And if we're wrong tomorrow, we vote for the other one (who we will know is a wolf) the next day.

JAG · 10-28-2009, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

What makes you think there is even a possibility that there is no Duke role in the game? And why would you think that a wolf would know that?

I don't like that plan as it uses up Lathum's ability which could come in handy later. And it will give a much less useful voting record for today.

I agree with KWhit. There has been zero indication that a role would not be present in the game and if Lathum lied, I expect him dead from the duke today. Schmidty even made clear how many wolves were in the game which is unusual in games I've been a part of. I understand you're wary of Lathum, but I don't think this is a good idea based on the certainty that the duke role is in the game.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 05:02 PM

Schmidty, if there are roles not in play would the wolves know of it?

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

The only downside is we won't know if we get a real block or a conversion. Still, it's a risk for the wolves as well.

Something just occurred to me about that too. I just re-read the role. The way I read it, the wolves don't currently know which one of them is the real BG either.

Is that right?

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 05:04 PM

The more I think about it, we really need to vote MartinD tonight. Of course I say this knowing that I am Freddie. But the wolves don't know who is telling the truth either. Right now, they are having discussions is they should kidnap MartinD or me. It is really a win-win situation for them. If they kidnap me and I block it, it may look like I am the cultist.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 05:07 PM

If we are leaving GE/MartinD alone I would say we go either ntn/JAG (if we get a good response from the clarification that I asked).

As I said, I trust that Lathum would have a good read by now if he is a villager. I can't see him being around much longer if he is so why not let him use the power now. It lets him use his power and it gives us a defnite CoT.

If, however, we get a response from Schmidty that either all roles are in play or that the wolves would not know if one was not in play than I am all for not voting him (for everyone else that is as I can't change).

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

The more I think about it, we really need to vote MartinD tonight. Of course I say this knowing that I am Freddie. But the wolves don't know who is telling the truth either. Right now, they are having discussions is they should kidnap MartinD or me. It is really a win-win situation for them. If they kidnap me and I block it, it may look like I am the cultist.

This could easily be a ploy to try to get us to lynch the real BG. Because if there's a lynch, the BG can't protect himself by guarding himself.

Either Martin or GE could be lying here.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Either Martin or GE could be lying here.

Paging captain obvious..........

JAG · 10-28-2009, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Something just occurred to me about that too. I just re-read the role. The way I read it, the wolves don't currently know which one of them is the real BG either.

Is that right?

I can't imagine the wolves would know who the cultist is from the beginning, so I agree.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Paging captain obvious..........

My point is that the worst thing for us to do is to accidentally lynch the BG. And since we can't be sure, we need to stay away from voting for either of them tonight.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 05:12 PM

Out for a bit. Will be back by deadline.

JAG · 10-28-2009, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

If we are leaving GE/MartinD alone I would say we go either ntn/JAG (if we get a good response from the clarification that I asked).

Out of curiosity, why do you think I am more likely to be a wolf than RA?

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Either Martin or GE could be lying here.

You think? Sitting around and not solving this issue for another day is going to give the wolves an edge needed to win the game. If the wolves kidnap MartinD tonight, he can claim he guarded himself and that is why he is still alive. If you want to vote for me, fine. At least you will know MartinD is lying. You will kill the real bodyguard, but at least there will be some clarity.

This is why I was pushing MartinD earlier, trying to get answers.

For the record, I guarded hoops on night one.

JAG · 10-28-2009, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

My point is that the worst thing for us to do is to accidentally lynch the BG. And since we can't be sure, we need to stay away from voting for either of them tonight.

Why would we want to vote for the cultist instead of a wolf anyway? At least until he's been converted.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Why would we want to vote for the cultist instead of a wolf anyway? At least until he's been converted.

Because in this situation, he can gain trust by claiming to be the body guard.

The story would be I came out and claimed I was the body guard. I was not killed last night because I protected myself (but I was really converted). The wolves decided to not kill me later on in the game because the seer and shaggy are dead.

Is there extra incentive for the cultist to try to converted? I don't know. You will have to ask MartinD.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 05:20 PM

Let's think this through:

MartinD is the bodyguard.
- odd play by coming out when he did
- GE counters as a way to signal the wolves (why? to keep out CoT from expanding? To signal the wolves that he is cultist?)

MartinD is the cultist.
- trying to get himself converted (why come out that way as it would only buy him at best one more night if we go with lynching the real BG on reveal?)
- hoping to help the wolves by getting rid of real BG upon reveal

Either way I think the cultist is at least worried that we are getting close to beating the wolves.

Chief Rum · 10-28-2009, 05:40 PM

Y'all are killing me with all these reveals. How the haystack am I supposed to get any work done? Sheesh!

I agree with the reasoning to keep strong after ntn, and let's see what plays out at night.

FTR, it's my guess Martin is the cultist. It would explain a lot about his odd reveal. He wants to be targeted, and what better way than to claim a role? What's the downside for a cultist? Either he is converted into the wolf he wants to be (or Schmidty's version, I guess Igor wouldn't be able to communicate or be a full wolf), or the real role (whichever he claims, in this case, BG) comes out and the wolves now know who that role is.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

MartinD is the cultist.
- trying to get himself converted (why come out that way as it would only buy him at best one more night if we go with lynching the real BG on reveal?)

It was a calculated risk. He figured the real bodyguard might not come out and he had to hope that ntn or RA was not the bodyguard.

To be honest, I was not going to say anything. If he would have said he guarded himself last night, i was not going to reveal.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

FTR, it's my guess Martin is the cultist. It would explain a lot about his odd reveal. He wants to be targeted, and what better way than to claim a role? What's the downside for a cultist? Either he is converted into the wolf he wants to be (or Schmidty's version, I guess Igor wouldn't be able to communicate or be a full wolf), or the real role (whichever he claims, in this case, BG) comes out and the wolves now know who that role is.

But the wolves don't know who the cultist is either.

Chief Rum · 10-28-2009, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

But the wolves don't know who the cultist is either.

Exactly. So what better way to attract their attention? "Hey, I'm the BG, come kill me." They come kill him, and lo and behold, he's not the BG, he's the cultist!

Schmidty · 10-28-2009, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

question, If Don Knotts is lynched, is he out of the game as well or does that player take his place?

He's out of the game too.

(Just got home from work)

Schmidty · 10-28-2009, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

can Schmidty confirm this, it is not how I read the rules.

I didn't think I worded it awkwardly, but he will not know their identities until he is converted, nor will they know his. Sorry for any confusion.

Schmidty · 10-28-2009, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Schmidty, if there are roles not in play would the wolves know of it?

If one side knew something, the other side would know the same thing.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

If one side knew something, the other side would know the same thing.

Thank you.

Lathum = 100 percent clear in my eyes then (unless the real duke nails him today but a fake claim would make no sense now, only if they knew that the role did not exist)

No need in voting Lathum tonight, but I am still 100 percent okay with him going with his gut if he sees something. He is an elite player and I trust his gut.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 06:16 PM

I still think the issue with the BG reveal needs to be decided today.

If we allow the wolves to decide, here are the possible outcomes:

A) They will get a convert who has a pretty good story as to why he was not killed last night
B) they kill the body guard
C) The bodyguard blocks the kill and we are back to square one

Of those alternatives, only C hurts the wolves and it really does not effect them much.

Raiders Army · 10-28-2009, 06:36 PM

I just got home and I'm having a guest for dinner. somebody tell me who to vote for if I need to change my vote.

Raiders Army · 10-28-2009, 06:37 PM

Quick scan and it seems as if the wolves are ganging up on me. I'll leave my vote on ntn.

Chief Rum · 10-28-2009, 07:04 PM

All right guys I am off to my second job and won't be back until well after the deadline. Good luck to everyone. Very interesting day to say the least.

10-28-2009, 04:47 PM	#1161
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	I don't what Martin was thinking, other than the fact that he was hoping to get kidnapped or he was tired of playing the game and hoping to get killed. Believe me, I would not have revealed unless I felt it was necessary. I did not want Martin gaining any trust. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

10-28-2009, 04:49 PM	#1164
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	Fine, I can live with that. UNVOTE MARTIND __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

10-28-2009, 05:04 PM	#1177
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	The more I think about it, we really need to vote MartinD tonight. Of course I say this knowing that I am Freddie. But the wolves don't know who is telling the truth either. Right now, they are having discussions is they should kidnap MartinD or me. It is really a win-win situation for them. If they kidnap me and I block it, it may look like I am the cultist. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

10-28-2009, 05:40 PM	#1189
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Y'all are killing me with all these reveals. How the haystack am I supposed to get any work done? Sheesh! I agree with the reasoning to keep strong after ntn, and let's see what plays out at night. FTR, it's my guess Martin is the cultist. It would explain a lot about his odd reveal. He wants to be targeted, and what better way than to claim a role? What's the downside for a cultist? Either he is converted into the wolf he wants to be (or Schmidty's version, I guess Igor wouldn't be able to communicate or be a full wolf), or the real role (whichever he claims, in this case, BG) comes out and the wolves now know who that role is. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

10-28-2009, 06:16 PM	#1197
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	I still think the issue with the BG reveal needs to be decided today. If we allow the wolves to decide, here are the possible outcomes: A) They will get a convert who has a pretty good story as to why he was not killed last night B) they kill the body guard C) The bodyguard blocks the kill and we are back to square one Of those alternatives, only C hurts the wolves and it really does not effect them much. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

10-28-2009, 04:41 PM	#1151
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	GoldenEagle is the cultist and is trying to signal the wolves to come after him tonight. That is my read on those last couple of posts.

10-28-2009, 04:42 PM	#1152
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	So we waste tomorrow's vote, since no wolf in their right mind is going to go against that one.

10-28-2009, 04:42 PM	#1154
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	(and that was in response to KWhit, not EF)

10-28-2009, 04:43 PM	#1155
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Is there any play in which GE makes a fake reveal if he's a wolf? For that matter, why would MartinD fake reveal if he's a wolf. It doesn't quite add up for me. We can't be CERTAIN who to believe. In which case, I think it wise to let them both live until the wolves kill the real bodyguard. And if they don't do it for us - great, we get more bodyguard block chances.

10-28-2009, 04:45 PM	#1158
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Either GE or MartinD is the cultist, hoping to get attacked and converted. My guess is that GE is the cultist but hat is just an early take on it.

10-28-2009, 04:51 PM	#1166
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	So how many reveals have we had in the past 24 hours? Four? Jeez!

10-28-2009, 04:53 PM	#1168
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Put it in Lathum's hands by voting him. There are one of two results: 1) He is the duke and he makes his selection - I feel confident in his villager ability to interpret the information that we have. 2) He is a wolf who knows the duke role is not in the game. In this case we look at GE next as he came forward with clearing GE. It becomes a HUGE gain for us at that point.

10-28-2009, 04:55 PM	#1169
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	I'm going to have to run to pick up the kids in just a minute. I'll be back by deadline, but maybe not too much before then. Before I go, though, I just want to reiterate that we should put the MartinD and GE issue on the back burner. It would suck to be wrong about it and lynch the real BG tonight. Let's let the wolves tell us who's telling the truth.

10-28-2009, 05:02 PM	#1175
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Schmidty, if there are roles not in play would the wolves know of it?

10-28-2009, 05:07 PM	#1178
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	If we are leaving GE/MartinD alone I would say we go either ntn/JAG (if we get a good response from the clarification that I asked). As I said, I trust that Lathum would have a good read by now if he is a villager. I can't see him being around much longer if he is so why not let him use the power now. It lets him use his power and it gives us a defnite CoT. If, however, we get a response from Schmidty that either all roles are in play or that the wolves would not know if one was not in play than I am all for not voting him (for everyone else that is as I can't change).

10-28-2009, 05:12 PM	#1183
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Out for a bit. Will be back by deadline.

10-28-2009, 05:20 PM	#1188
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Let's think this through: MartinD is the bodyguard. - odd play by coming out when he did - GE counters as a way to signal the wolves (why? to keep out CoT from expanding? To signal the wolves that he is cultist?) MartinD is the cultist. - trying to get himself converted (why come out that way as it would only buy him at best one more night if we go with lynching the real BG on reveal?) - hoping to help the wolves by getting rid of real BG upon reveal Either way I think the cultist is at least worried that we are getting close to beating the wolves.

10-28-2009, 06:36 PM	#1198
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	I just got home and I'm having a guest for dinner. somebody tell me who to vote for if I need to change my vote.

10-28-2009, 06:37 PM	#1199
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	Quick scan and it seems as if the wolves are ganging up on me. I'll leave my vote on ntn.

10-28-2009, 07:04 PM	#1200
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	All right guys I am off to my second job and won't be back until well after the deadline. Good luck to everyone. Very interesting day to say the least. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

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