Werewolf L Kate Beckinsale - day 7, deadline Thursday 10pm Eastern Time

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I am actually about to get in the car to drive back home to Little Rock, which is 2.5 hours away. So I definitely wont be around for lynch. I am going to put in my vote for somebody whom I think a lot of people will also vote for, so I wont be wasting my vote on Gonzo again today.

vote Render

I agree with Gonzo that to say he has gone unoticed is incorrect, he was tied in the vote until right at the very deadline yesterday.

You say that you agree with some of what I posted earlier, but then vote for Render instead of Neon Chaos. A significant portion of the suspicion around Render depends on whether Neon Chaos is a good guy or a bad guy, so logically we should start off with Neon. If Neon turns up human then that relieves a fair amount of the pressure from Render IMHO. Going the other way around isn't as valuable.

[tanglewood]

Vote is currently:

Ollie 7 / Schmidty 2 / Render 1

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm sick so i'm going to close my eyes. Dunno how long my nap will last.

[tanglewood]

Three people have yet to receive a vote in the game: LoneStarGirl, KWhit and JHandley.

[cartman]

Well, if nothing else, if we lynch Oliegirl, we'll get the answer to our DC questions. Not the ideal situation, but it is what it is.

VOTE OLIEGIRL

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

VOTE RENDER

Why?

If previous analysis and my own posts didn't convince you yestreday why switch off me then and back on to me today? nothing has changed.

This is aimed at all those voting for me, not just you DT.

What makes me more suspicious than anyone else?

If its the voting stuff, then why am I still here today? why did everyone suddenly go "oh well yeah i don't think he's bad tonight, lets lynch someone else" and then jump right back on a bandwagon tonight?

Lemme look at those voting for me....

daddytorgo and LSG

There have been comments about LSG all game long, yet noone has bothered to go after her, including myself. I may actually change my vote based on that alone.

ST I'm not really getting. he's been all over the place in this game. Can you give me something more specific that makes me suspect in your eyes DT?

[RendeR]

thats DT not ST, sorry. tying too fast.

[RendeR]

Schmidty: I can understand the whole time constraints and being busy issue. I'm not necessarily voting for you do to lack of activity alone. Even when you've been around your comments have been more going with the flow than really being outspoken about anything or anylising anyone. From reading older games you seem to be a lot more outspoken in the past. I'm just noting the difference.

Also voting for you now brings you out into the discussion and makes you defend your situation, creating information for us to work over.

lastly, I'm REALLY not liking the Olligirl/dodgerchick situation, and while I understand the logic in removing that situation right away making things a little easier on the villagers' part, I just don't like the vibe I'm getting off that vote. SO if i avoid voting OG I'm back to square one and want to see what you do/say about being implicated.

Hence my vote for you. Make sense?

[tanglewood]

Okay, let's see if we can get some movement off the Olliegirl vote, which I think is miguided at best.

Vote Neon Chaos

[RendeR]

Tangle, can you explain to me a bit more as to why there is a Neon Chaos/RendeR connection at all? I wasn't aware that he and I had anything relating back and forth?

[RendeR]

be back in 30 minutes or so..

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Tangle, can you explain to me a bit more as to why there is a Neon Chaos/RendeR connection at all? I wasn't aware that he and I had anything relating back and forth?

You both voted for Barkeep to save Neon with a tie. You both voted for Alan T on day three until his reveal, then both voted for me before switching to Chief Rum after it became apparent he was going down. When you were run up on early yesterday, Neon helped shift the bandwagon off of you onto Antmeister. A few things.

[tanglewood]

I think finding out if Neon Chaos is human or not is far more important than settling the DC/OG situation.

If we discover Neon Chaos is a wolf, then we automatically incriminate the voters who pushed Barkeep up to prevent Neon's lynch on day 2. If we discover he is a human then that alleyway is closed for now and we can move on from what really is an absolutely key issue.

If we discover that DC/Ollie is a wolf (which as already pointed out is highly unlikely in my opinion) then we get no trail to anyone. If she turns up human, then we get no trail to anyone, expect the huge raft of people who voted for her. But seeing as it has become such an inevitable lynch the wolves can easily be hiding in the vote for her if she is a wolf. When it becomes obvious who is going to be lynched well in advance the wolves have a much easier time figuring out their voting patterns and it is harder to catch them. After all voting for Ollie is the 'obvious play' so any villager would obviously do it.

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

I think finding out if Neon Chaos is human or not is far more important than settling the DC/OG situation.

What evidence do you have that Neon is a wolf?

[path12]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

No offence, but voting for someone because "it looks like they'll be lynched anyway" is the stupidest reason possible. You would be better of abstaining.

What part of "I absolutely see the logic in the choice" are you having problems with?

[path12]

Originally Posted by path12

Been swamped today. Main thing that bothers me on the OG vote is that nobody has come out to defend much at all today.

I see I spoke too soon.

[path12]

I'd be up for switching my vote to someone I have questions about. Tanglewood, for instance.

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by path12

I see I spoke too soon.

Yeah. This mobilisation by the anti-lynch OG is pretty suspicious.

[JHandley]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Here's what happened: Dodgerchick responded to the group pm titled "important," thinking, based on other information she had, that that pm indicated that she was a wolf. She responded to the following people, thinking they were all wolves: tanglewood, gonzo, neon_chaos.

I don't know how appropriate this question is, but I'll go ahead and ask it. What information could she have had to think she was a wolf, if she wasn't a wolf or the Mad Scientist? Why did she believe these three players are wolves?

That's why I think resolving this issue first and foremost is important.

[path12]

Telle, you've seemed much quieter this game than last. What are your thoughts?

[DaddyTorgo]

basically just the fact that i've been shoot-first-n-ask-questions-later this game RendeR. For example, not really keeping as good a track as I usually do of my ongoing feelings about people.

I didn't want to vote for OG, cuz I see the point about her and it not really making sense that she's a wolf.

And I guess I forgot that you had said things that convinced me yesterday

UNVOTE RENDER

[tanglewood]

A different subject.

There are 13 players left in the game currently, tommorow we will have 11. After tonight the Good Scientist will have had 5 views. At what point is it desirable for a reveal to close off the game? When we get a reveal, assuming there is no counter reveal and thus an argument, we will be presented with a COT of those viewed plus the seer himself. If all five players viewed are still alive tommorow (unlikely) and are all good (about a one third chance, but if some views are bad even better) then a reveal gives the village a 6-5 COT majority. From this can be extrapolated vote records etc. and the game should be won reasonably quickly.

It is however unlikely that all viewed players are still alive. What kind of COT are we all happy for the seer to reveal with? Wait until absolute majority? Wait until he hits on a bad guy regardless of COT numbers? This is not a request for the seer to reveal by any means, but an opening towards a discussion I feel is pertinent.

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by path12

What part of "I absolutely see the logic in the choice" are you having problems with?

Sorry, I read that as "I [i]don't[/t] absolutely see the logic..."

[Telle]

Originally Posted by path12

Telle, you've seemed much quieter this game than last. What are your thoughts?

I don't know. I feel like there's so little to go on. Last game I got very vocal when I thought I had figured something out

I think it would be prudent to lynch oliegirl just to put that whole issue to bed. Of course, if she's the mad scientist she'll still appear human and we won't actually no.

People tickling the back of my mind as potential wolves: Gonzo, Neon_Chaos, and Tanglewood.

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by JHandley

I don't know how appropriate this question is, but I'll go ahead and ask it. What information could she have had to think she was a wolf, if she wasn't a wolf or the Mad Scientist? Why did she believe these three players are wolves?

That's why I think resolving this issue first and foremost is important.

Me, Gonzo and Neon Chaos were the three players CC'd with Dodgerchick on the intial game start PM sent to all players. I presume that everyone else's start PM was CC'd to three other players also.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

A different subject.

There are 13 players left in the game currently, tommorow we will have 11. After tonight the Good Scientist will have had 5 views. At what point is it desirable for a reveal to close off the game? When we get a reveal, assuming there is no counter reveal and thus an argument, we will be presented with a COT of those viewed plus the seer himself. If all five players viewed are still alive tommorow (unlikely) and are all good (about a one third chance, but if some views are bad even better) then a reveal gives the village a 6-5 COT majority. From this can be extrapolated vote records etc. and the game should be won reasonably quickly.

It is however unlikely that all viewed players are still alive. What kind of COT are we all happy for the seer to reveal with? Wait until absolute majority? Wait until he hits on a bad guy regardless of COT numbers? This is not a request for the seer to reveal by any means, but an opening towards a discussion I feel is pertinent.

The problem is that the seers don't give an absolute answer. One can tell you if a person is a wolf, but not if they're the mad scientist. The other can tell you if a person is the mad scientist, but not a wolf. So a person would have to be cleared by BOTH seers in order to be truly trusted.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

You both voted for Barkeep to save Neon with a tie. You both voted for Alan T on day three until his reveal, then both voted for me before switching to Chief Rum after it became apparent he was going down. When you were run up on early yesterday, Neon helped shift the bandwagon off of you onto Antmeister. A few things.

So basically the arguments that I made yesterday that seemed to at least relieve some suspision from me yesterday, today, makes no difference to you.

Ok.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by JHandley

I don't know how appropriate this question is, but I'll go ahead and ask it. What information could she have had to think she was a wolf, if she wasn't a wolf or the Mad Scientist? Why did she believe these three players are wolves?

That's why I think resolving this issue first and foremost is important.

That's why I said she either has to have some special role or be a bad guy. There's absolutely nothing in the PM that went out to everybody that would make you think you're a wolf.. in fact, it SPECIFICALLY says that if you didn't get a prior PM then you're just a plain villager.

So if oliegirl maintains that she does not have a special role, then she must be a wolf or the mad scientist.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Telle

That's why I said she either has to have some special role or be a bad guy. There's absolutely nothing in the PM that went out to everybody that would make you think you're a wolf.. in fact, it SPECIFICALLY says that if you didn't get a prior PM then you're just a plain villager.

So if oliegirl maintains that she does not have a special role, then she must be a wolf or the mad scientist.

Yeah. The logic to me says she's much more likely to be a wolf or mad scientist than not.

[cartman]

Hmm, we've got a guest as we approach the deadline.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by cartman

Hmm, we've got a guest as we approach the deadline.

eh?

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by RendeR

eh?

I think cartman's implying that someone's logged out to avoid being spotted.

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

A different subject.

There are 13 players left in the game currently, tommorow we will have 11. After tonight the Good Scientist will have had 5 views. At what point is it desirable for a reveal to close off the game? When we get a reveal, assuming there is no counter reveal and thus an argument, we will be presented with a COT of those viewed plus the seer himself. If all five players viewed are still alive tommorow (unlikely) and are all good (about a one third chance, but if some views are bad even better) then a reveal gives the village a 6-5 COT majority. From this can be extrapolated vote records etc. and the game should be won reasonably quickly.

It is however unlikely that all viewed players are still alive. What kind of COT are we all happy for the seer to reveal with? Wait until absolute majority? Wait until he hits on a bad guy regardless of COT numbers? This is not a request for the seer to reveal by any means, but an opening towards a discussion I feel is pertinent.

What I forgot to add to the end of this:

If the seer has a) viewed people who are all still alive and b) not yet viewed Olliegirl, then the plan should be to vote for someone other than Olliegirl who will give us more information regarding voting records (i.e. Neon Chaos), Olliegirl is then viewed at night. We then in the morning receive a reveal from the seer where we either get a list of good guys to form a COT or a bad guy or two plus some good guys. Olliegirl could be on either list.

However, if we lynch Olliegirl tonight and she turns up human we gain practically no information on voting records at all.

a) Olliegirl hasn't even been playing for most of the game. Yes players have been voting for the same character, but based on the actions and posts of the person who is performing that character's role. Votes for Dodgerchick are not the same as votes for Olliegirl.

b) Olliegirl/Dodgerchick has been the final end vote of precisely no players. Neon Chaos has been the final vote of a player seven times. Neon Chaos was 5/2 leading with an hour before a deadline before a confirmed villager was advanced into a tie with Neon Chaos. Knowing the identity of Neon Chaos is a key component of clearing or implicating those players who caused that tie! If Neon is a wolf you automatically create several very good suspects based on that vote alone. If OG comes back a wolf, where do you go? It's a dead end.

As it is today's vote is a waste of time imho. Currently we are learning nothing, regardless of whether OG is a wolf or not.

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

As it is today's vote is a waste of time imho. Currently we are learning nothing, regardless of whether OG is a wolf or not.

If she's a wolf, we'd know that you defended her to the death.

[Telle]

8 - Oliegirl
2 - Schmidty
2 - RendeR
1 - Neon Chaos

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

If she's a wolf, we'd know that you defended her to the death.

You noticed that too?

[path12]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

A different subject.

There are 13 players left in the game currently, tommorow we will have 11. After tonight the Good Scientist will have had 5 views. At what point is it desirable for a reveal to close off the game? When we get a reveal, assuming there is no counter reveal and thus an argument, we will be presented with a COT of those viewed plus the seer himself. If all five players viewed are still alive tommorow (unlikely) and are all good (about a one third chance, but if some views are bad even better) then a reveal gives the village a 6-5 COT majority. From this can be extrapolated vote records etc. and the game should be won reasonably quickly.

It is however unlikely that all viewed players are still alive. What kind of COT are we all happy for the seer to reveal with? Wait until absolute majority? Wait until he hits on a bad guy regardless of COT numbers? This is not a request for the seer to reveal by any means, but an opening towards a discussion I feel is pertinent.

Two things about this post really bother me.

1) We are within 30 minutes of deadline. It is time to be debating lynch candidates rather than throw out a subject that is likely to have all sorts of arguments back and forth.

2) I think it is FAR better, especially since we do not have a bodyguard, for our seers to work their magic and find us a wolf rather than outing themselves.

I so want to vote for you today. I'm going to be shocked if you're not a wolf.

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by RendeR

So basically the arguments that I made yesterday that seemed to at least relieve some suspision from me yesterday, today, makes no difference to you.

Ok.

Firstly, I don't want to vote for you tonight (though I'd rather you than Olliegirl to be honest), I want to lynch for Neon Chaos and then go from there afresh.

Secondly, I don't remember ever saying I was convinced by your arguments yesterday.

[path12]

Screw it. I can always change back.

UNVOTE OLIEGIRL
VOTE TANGLEWOOD

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE NEON CHAOS

works for me tangle. Anyone else?

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

I want to lynch for Neon Chaos and then go from there afresh.

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...postcount=1214 !

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

If she's a wolf, we'd know that you defended her to the death.

If I was a wolf, I'd be doing what the wolves are doing and have already jumped on the bandwagon. It's impossible to look bad to the village if you vote for Olliegirl today.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

Firstly, I don't want to vote for you tonight (though I'd rather you than Olliegirl to be honest), I want to lynch for Neon Chaos and then go from there afresh.

Secondly, I don't remember ever saying I was convinced by your arguments yesterday.

Never said anything about convincing people, just alleviating some suspision.(how the fuck do you spell that word? I've done it 5 different ways in the last few hours...)

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Never said anything about convincing people, just alleviating some suspision.(how the fuck do you spell that word? I've done it 5 different ways in the last few hours...)

Which one, alleviating or suspicion?

[Gonzo]

Suspicion.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

Suspicion.

Thank you Gonzo. *pulls trigger on the circus cannon*

[JHandley]

Alright, screw it. Tangle makes a good point and I'm not as sold that he's a wolf as Path is. Oliegirl can wait one more day.

UNVOTE OLIEGIRL
VOTE NEON_CHAOS

[KWhit]

Anybody have a vote count?

[st.cronin]

vote count:

8 - oliegirl - Gonzo (1143), KWhit (1146), JHandley (1148), Neon_Chaos (1151), Schmidty (1153), Telle (1167), path12 (1189), cartman (1205)
2 - Schmidty - oliegirl (1168), RendeR (1176)
1 - RendeR - LoneStarGirl (1197)
1 - Neon Chaos - tanglewood (1209)

no vote: DaddyTorgo

[JHandley]

Going to need a lot more to follow to make a difference, tho.