The 2010 MLB Season Thread

[JPhillips]

Fuck rain delays.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

Dola, wow just saw a crazy stat - He's only the 3rd pitcher in MLB history to win 10 of there first 11 and have a era under 1.00 . insane.

He's ridiculously locked in right now. It also helps that the Rockies put a terrific defense around him. It makes him all the more dominant.

Rockies fans are used to Ubaldo pitching great and then having the one disaster inning. This year he hasn't had a disaster inning. He's given up 2 runs in an inning one time this year. Hell, he's only given up 2 runs in a start twice this year.

Every number you throw out makes the guy look even better. He had a 3 start stretch where he gave up 4 runs in 22 innings pitched. Sounds pretty good until you realize he's given up 3 total runs in his other 58 innings this year.

The other number that jumps out at me this year is his pitching in night games. Check this out:

5-0 record, 37 IP, 13 hits, 1 R, 1 ER, 13 BB, 33 K, .110 average against. (.24 ERA)

Good lord. . .

[sterlingice]

Just filthy

SI

[BishopMVP]

It doesn't hurt to have a strand rate of 92% either.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

It doesn't hurt to have a strand rate of 92% either.

Nor does it hurt to have a BABIP of .226, and it especially doesn't hurt to have 1.8% of your fly balls go over the fence.

Don't get me wrong - he's a very good pitcher, but he hasn't really pitched much different than last year in the areas over which he has the most control. Don't be surprised to see a little regression to the mean in his future.

[sterlingice]

So what you're saying is that he's not going to throw a Bob Gibson season *gasp*?

SI

[lordscarlet]

Strasburg's first MLB start is now officially schedule for June 8.

[TroyF]

You mean, he's not going to have a .78 ERA this year? GASP. SHOCK.

He's not a guy who gives up a ton of big flies to begin with. 13 last year in 33 starts.

There are two stats I think Ubaldo does have control of that he's been incredible at this year. He's dropped his walks per 9 by a half a walk. Doesn't sound like a lot, but a lot of the times he gets into trouble is because he puts a couple of guys on and has to give in to hitters.

The second is his 0/2 faced percentage. It's at 27%. He's been at 20% for most of his career. Consider that last year after he had an 0-2 count against the league, he gave up 3 extra base hits (all doubles) and had an OBP of .191. He's now getting to 0/2 on 7% more of hitters faced.

Both of those numbers show a guy who has a grasp of location now and can get any pitch over for a strike. When a guy with his stuff improves his command and walk hitters less while putting them in more 0/2 counts, it's not real shocking the batting average on balls into play drops a bit.

Now it isn't going to stay this way. I know that and you know that. But is he going back to a 3.50 ERA type pitcher? I kind of doubt it.

[dawgfan]

Yeah, I did gloss over the drop in his walks which was a mistake - that's an important improvement. The other thing I notice when looking deeper at his numbers is that his line drive percentage allowed is quite low - 13.3% when typically he's been between 17-19%. I don't know the current state of DIPs and how much they've updated the theory to look deeper at various kinds of contact off the bat, but we do know that line drive percentage and BABIP are correlated. While acknowledging that there is significant potential for scoring bias in tallying line drives (at least until Hit F/X is up and running), perhaps Jimenez really does have an ability to reduce the amount of squared-up contact on his pitches and has improved that this year. Or, it could just be normal variation that will normalize over the course of the season.

And yes, even when considering that his BABIP, strand pct. and HR/flyball pct. are very likely unsustainable at their current rates, the advanced pitching metrics like xFIP and (especially) TRA agree that Jimenez has improved this year. TRA is much more enthusiastic about him, as he's running a 2.48 TRA this year compared to a 3.19 last year; xFIP is more measured, clocking him at 3.51 this year compared to 3.63 last year. For a variety of reasons, I think TRA is a better metric, so I think while it's certain that Jimenez will see his numbers regress as the season continues, he's taken another step forward into the top echelon of starting pitchers.

[stevew]

Can't be too much longer for Pedro.

[larrymcg421]

Braves now up 1 1/2 games. They have won 17 of their last 21 games. Amazing.

[stevew]

The 7 in there vs the Pirates were a big help I'm sure....weren't you like 6-1?

[stevew]

My bad, it was 5-1.

[larrymcg421]

Sure, playing bad teams always helps, but they've also beaten the Reds, Marlins, and Phillies in that stretch. 17-4 is impressive no matter how you slice it.

[MrBug708]

Went to the Dodger game with Neuqua tonight. Got to see a nice walkoff HR in the 10th.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

17-4 is impressive no matter how you slice it.

Indeed. I happened to be at one of the losses. D'oh (11-1 loss to Arizona when we were in Atlanta)

SI

[JPhillips]

Let me make an official retraction.

The Scott Rolen trade was fantastic. Thank you Uncle Walt.

[Poli]

They were talking about that last night on Fox Sports Midwest.

[Poli]

Don't know if it got much play here, but I'm pleased to see that an umpire is getting lit up for being an idiot when he tossed Oswalt a few days back.

[Ksyrup]

The lack of enforcement against umps is a joke. The article about the Oswalt incident reads like an Onion article - the ump is going to get a " very stern talking to" today. Are they going to threaten to pull off their belt and whip him if he does it again, too?

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Let me make an official retraction.

The Scott Rolen trade was fantastic. Thank you Uncle Walt.

I've always liked Rolen, seems like a great fit in Cincy.

[TroyF]

Read an article today from Olney where he talks about it. It is a joke and always has been. The entire Oswalt incident reads like an Onion article.

Pitcher screams at himself
Umpire challenges him
Pitcher says "I'm not talking to you"
Umpire ejects him
Umpire to get a Stern talking to
No further punishment for Oswalt

This shouldn't be a stern talking to, it should be a suspension.

Maybe the "stern" part was actually a pun for David Stern and baseball is officially going to start rigging games now.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

I've always liked Rolen, seems like a great fit in Cincy.

It isn't a completely fair way of looking at the contribution of one player, but the W/L record with Rolen in the lineup versus when he's out of the lineup is crazy. I still wish we wouldn't have given up two pitchers as well as EdE, but Rolen is clearly the heart of this team.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by TroyF

He's ridiculously locked in right now. It also helps that the Rockies put a terrific defense around him. It makes him all the more dominant.

Rockies fans are used to Ubaldo pitching great and then having the one disaster inning. This year he hasn't had a disaster inning. He's given up 2 runs in an inning one time this year. Hell, he's only given up 2 runs in a start twice this year.

Every number you throw out makes the guy look even better. He had a 3 start stretch where he gave up 4 runs in 22 innings pitched. Sounds pretty good until you realize he's given up 3 total runs in his other 58 innings this year.

The other number that jumps out at me this year is his pitching in night games. Check this out:

5-0 record, 37 IP, 13 hits, 1 R, 1 ER, 13 BB, 33 K, .110 average against. (.24 ERA)

Good lord. . .

Not to piss on the Cy Young parade for Ubaldo but if he was pitching in the AL especially the AL east he would be 5-4 with a 3.60 era.

[stevew]

It's going to be incredible how some dumb team pays rediculously for Oswalt. Someone is going to be paying for a season he had 4 years ago. Which isn't to say he's not good, but he's not mid decade Oswalt anymore.

[Ksyrup]

I really fail to see how the Astros can get anything of value for him, seeing as though he's still owed $15M for next year. Seems like a classic case of "We'll take him and pay him but we're only giving you AA fodder," or "We'll take him, you pay 75%, and we'll give you a couple of guys who have fairly high ceilings." I don't see an option C where a team takes the contract AND gives back real prospects.

Seems like a no-win situation for the Astros. Even if they save the money, they've lost one of their core vets and end up using the money they saved to pay Carlos Lee, who they probably couldn't give away to the Atlantic League.

[Crapshoot]

Yeah Oswalt is a good pitcher, but they're not going to get a ton for him - baseball has finally got to the point of recognizing the value of young, cost-controlled players.

[johnnyshaka]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Not to piss on the Cy Young parade for Ubaldo but if he was pitching in the AL especially the AL east he would be 5-4 with a 3.60 era.

In fairness, Roy Halladay had dominated the AL over the years and his numbers are only marginally better in the NL and that is with a much better team than he used to have.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

NL runs per game so far this year: 4.46

AL runs per game so far this year: 4.52

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Not to piss on the Cy Young parade for Ubaldo but if he was pitching in the AL especially the AL east he would be 5-4 with a 3.60 era.

...

Yeah, that's a load of crap.

We all acknowledge Roy Halladay is really good, right? His ERAs the last two years in the vaunted AL East were 2.78 and 2.79. This year in Philly, he's at 1.99 and I'll bet he doesn't finish with an ERA under 2 for the year. So, at most, it makes a 0.70 ERA difference, probably much lower than that.

It's not like the NL is AA ball and the AL is filled with All Star teams. People need to just stop with that comparison. The AL is scoring 4.52 runs per game while the NL is scoring 4.46 this season. The AL East has Baltimore (3.38), Boston (5.25), New York (5.62), Tampa Bay (5.15) and Toronto (5.19) which comes out to 4.91. That's less than half a run different than the NL even in the vaunted AL East.

Now, yes, it's a really hot streak. And, no, he's not going to end the year at 0.78. His FIP is 2.62 and xFIP is 3.51. He's going to hit a rough patch at some point and his ERA will probably end up somewhere in the low to mid 2s. If you'd like to take that opportunity to say "see! he's not as good as we thought!", we all know that- there's going to be some regression to the mean.

He has been dialed in so far and he has been lucky. If we assume both of those remain the same, he'd have an ERA in the 1.5 range not 3.5 range in the AL East. And you know what, that's still pretty damn awesome.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by johnnyshaka

In fairness, Roy Halladay had dominated the AL over the years and his numbers are only marginally better in the NL and that is with a much better team than he used to have.

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

NL runs per game so far this year: 4.46

AL runs per game so far this year: 4.52

And it looks like you guys saw the really easy examples I used and did them much quicker and with much more of an economy of words

SI

[Crapshoot]

1) Ubaldo Jiminez has been the best pitcher in baseball this year.

2) The AL is a better league than the NL.

3) Ergo, pitching in the AL, we would expect Jiminez to perform slightly worse than he has now - more so if he was in the AL East.

I don't think any of those 3 statements are open to dispute.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Crapshoot, definitely true. Just that 2 is not true to the same magnitude that it was a few years ago.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

1) Ubaldo Jiminez has been the best pitcher in baseball this year.

2) The AL is a better league than the NL.

3) Ergo, pitching in the AL, we would expect Jiminez to perform slightly worse than he has now - more so if he was in the AL East.

I don't think any of those 3 statements are open to dispute.

Hard to argue any of those statements. But I'm pretty sure the transitive property doesn't allow for someone whose ERA is under 1 to go to 3.5 under those 3 conditions

SI

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Hard to argue any of those statements. But I'm pretty sure the transitive property doesn't allow for someone whose ERA is under 1 to go to 3.5 under those 3 conditions

SI

Ok I agree the 3.60 era is a stretch. Ubaldo is great pitcher but in game 7 of the WS I will take a Jon Lester or Mark Buerhle.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Yeah Oswalt is a good pitcher, but they're not going to get a ton for him - baseball has finally got to the point of recognizing the value of young, cost-controlled players.

I'd like to think that, but you still have guys like Steve Phillips saying that Oswalt >Strasburg or something dumb to that effect. And I'm sure he's more in line with the GM think than we want to believe he is.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

NL runs per game so far this year: 4.46

AL runs per game so far this year: 4.52

This does not prove much except the AL pitchers are better at handling the AL teams better hitters and the NL THE nl hitters are what they are. I guess to look at the cumulative team averages or HRs would be of more use. Since there has not been any interleague play yet. I would say let's take a look at those number in a month after interleague play. I bet they will be a fair margin at that point favoring the AL.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Galaril, it's definitely true and I don't think that they are equal. Just that the discrepancy in runs scored has been lessening, and this year (to this point) has been negligible.

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Since there has not been any interleague play yet. I would say let's take a look at those number in a month after interleague play. I bet they will be a fair margin at that point favoring the AL.

There has been limited interleague play. So far, the NL leads 22-20. The AL East specifically is 7-8. Limited sample size, but FWIW I do think the gap has closed at least somewhat this year.

[korme]

Great article on that boy Mike Leake

No time in the minors? No problem for Reds rookie Mike Leake | cincinnati.com | Cincinnati.Com

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Galaril, it's definitely true and I don't think that they are equal. Just that the discrepancy in runs scored has been lessening, and this year (to this point) has been negligible.

I totally agree with that point.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by LloydLungs

There has been limited interleague play. So far, the NL leads 22-20. The AL East specifically is 7-8. Limited sample size, but FWIW I do think the gap has closed at least somewhat this year.

Thanks so much for my theory

[lordscarlet]

Is anyone interested in a single ticket to see Strasburg's MLB debut?

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by stevew

Which isn't to say he's not good, but he's not mid decade Oswalt anymore.

You're right, he's better.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Is anyone interested in a single ticket to see Strasburg's MLB debut?

Dammit. If I didn't have to be on a plane that evening...

SI

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by stevew

I'd like to think that, but you still have guys like Steve Phillips saying that Oswalt >Strasburg or something dumb to that effect. And I'm sure he's more in line with the GM think than we want to believe he is.

To be fair, once you quoted "Steve Phillips said" - well, we've already abandoned logic, no?

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by LloydLungs

There has been limited interleague play. So far, the NL leads 22-20. The AL East specifically is 7-8. Limited sample size, but FWIW I do think the gap has closed at least somewhat this year.

Eh, lets look historically:

2006: 154-98, AL
2007: 137-115, AL
2008: 149-103, AL
2009: 138-114, AL

The AL is significantly better - 5-10 games better depending on where you're looking at. In fact, I'd postulate that the St. Louis Cardinals aren't a playoff team in the AL East, and that the Toronto Blue Jays are in the NL Central.

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Eh, lets look historically:

2006: 154-98, AL
2007: 137-115, AL
2008: 149-103, AL
2009: 138-114, AL

The AL is significantly better - 5-10 games better depending on where you're looking at. In fact, I'd postulate that the St. Louis Cardinals aren't a playoff team in the AL East, and that the Toronto Blue Jays are in the NL Central.

Nobodies arguing historically, they are saying this year, so far, it appears to be getting closer.

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Eh, lets look historically:

2006: 154-98, AL
2007: 137-115, AL
2008: 149-103, AL
2009: 138-114, AL

The AL is significantly better - 5-10 games better depending on where you're looking at. In fact, I'd postulate that the St. Louis Cardinals aren't a playoff team in the AL East, and that the Toronto Blue Jays are in the NL Central.

I'd postulate they're not one in the NL Central either.

[Poli]

Is this the thread where we talk about how much the designated hitter has ruined baseball?