10-28-2009, 06:35 PM | #1201 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
So I am eating my cheese and triscuts and trying to piece this together. Going to be talking out loud here.
So we have a /bg claim and a counter. Based on the fact the cultist has no clue who the wolves are and vice-versa it is logical that either MartinD or GE is the cultist. Now, if we lynch one tonight we obviously learn which one is which. The problem is no only is there a 50% chance we kill the BG, but the wolves then go for the other one tonight. Which means they either get the convert, who we then kill tomorrow, or they get the BG, or the BG gets a block. Now, if we wait until tomorrow there are a few scenerios. If there is no night kill we lynch one of them tomorrow and we get a 50% chance of getting a wolf. Now even if there was a succesfull block and we lynch the BG, he was dead that night anyway because they would come after him, knowing he cant block them. Now what this also means is we know who the cultist is and can keep him alive as a villager until there is a night with no kill, in which case we lynch him the next day for obvious reasons. Here is the bottom line, the cultist wants us to go the next 2 days not lynching a current wolf. If we follow GE today that is what happens, which is bad for us. Now the only thing we have to make sure of is whoever the cultist is doesn't make it to the final 3, so they will have to get dealt with at some point. |
10-28-2009, 06:35 PM | #1202 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
anyone have a vote count?
|
10-28-2009, 06:42 PM | #1203 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
|
|
10-28-2009, 06:49 PM | #1204 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
|
Quote:
A side detriment to this let's assume that they do hit either Martin or GE tonight. Assuming that the BG does protect themself how could we tell anything about either one except that one of them was targeted? |
|
10-28-2009, 06:54 PM | #1205 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
|
|
10-28-2009, 06:59 PM | #1206 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
Either RA or NTN is dying tonight, a vote any other way is wasted.
|
10-28-2009, 07:10 PM | #1207 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
|
|
10-28-2009, 07:12 PM | #1208 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
|
well Lathum,you have made it so hard for me to choose then. If those are my options, then my choice is clear. I do think we could be well served to look at the Martin/GE dichotomy. (sorry, I like that word and don't get to use it much. )
VOTE RA |
10-28-2009, 07:13 PM | #1209 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
|
And when I leave here in a few minutes I won't be back either until after the deadline.
|
10-28-2009, 07:16 PM | #1210 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
I know I am pushing for MartinD to be voted off, but I really think that is the direction we need to go.
VOTE MARTIND
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
10-28-2009, 07:17 PM | #1211 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
|
A couple of observations.
MartinD's claim of who he guarded day 1 and day 2 at least seems plausible. He was not around for the reveal so it would have made sense for him to have guarded himself day 1 and PB day 2 (which would have led to PB being vulnerable on day 3). If GoldenEagle is truly Freddy then he knows for certain that MartinD is either cultist or wolf (most likely cultist). Why would he have agreed so quickly to take his vote off someone that he would know 100 percent was lying? |
10-28-2009, 07:19 PM | #1212 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
GE, can you please refute my logic from above as to why we shouldn't vote either you or MartinD today?
|
10-28-2009, 07:20 PM | #1213 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
|
Also: Taking KWhit and MartinD out of the mix it leaves us with JAG, ntn and RA who had votes on either PB or Telle on day one and are not accounted for.
I would say that we have very good odds going with that group. |
10-28-2009, 07:21 PM | #1214 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
Quote:
Good point, which is why I ultimately decided to put my vote back on him. If we lynch him, then we would nail the cultist.
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
|
10-28-2009, 07:22 PM | #1215 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
|
double dola: I see while I was typing that other post GE went back to MartinD.
|
10-28-2009, 07:23 PM | #1216 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
Quote:
What if the wolves decide not to kill/convert one of us and instead kill someone like you who is 100% cleared? Then we are back at square one with one less villager.
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
|
10-28-2009, 07:27 PM | #1217 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
|
10-28-2009, 07:40 PM | #1218 | ||
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
|
Quote:
That's some nice thinking Lathum. The one downside is if they get the conversion tonight (instead of there being a BG block) AND we choose incorrectly tomorrow, we may end up lynching our BG who had a chance to protect themselves instead of forcing the wolves to do so, giving them a free kill to take down a member of our CoT. We would be guaranteed to get a wolf or identify Igor after the lynch though. I'm not 100% sure that's optimal strategy because we have some pretty good wolf candidates at the moment. Another consideration is if we keep both of them alive and lynch the brutal wolf, it makes them think about using that extra kill on the BG. Do they risk killing their potential convert or exposing them? Quote:
Not 100% sure about this. From what I read in the rules, Igor is a regular party goer unless he is kidnapped. If he makes it to the final 3 without being kidnapped, I believe he needs to vote with the village to win. Of course if it ends up being 4 people including Igor with the wolves getting an NK, they can win it with the conversion (making it 2-2 instead of 2-1). |
||
10-28-2009, 07:44 PM | #1219 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
Vote Count
NTN 5: RA (1048) CR (1050) Jackal (1064) Jag (1075) CW ( 1088) RA: 4 Lathum (1119) Kwhit (1122) MartinD (1138) NTNDeacon ( 1208) Lathum 1: EF (1135) MartinD 1: GE ( 1210) |
10-28-2009, 07:50 PM | #1220 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
Quote:
Rightm but if it is down to a wolf, a cultist and a villager the villager will be in a position to actually be trying to sell themselves as a wolf. |
|
10-28-2009, 07:51 PM | #1221 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
|
Just got back from getting my daughter from karate, and then picking up dinner. I might be running late.
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
10-28-2009, 07:51 PM | #1222 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
|
Not sure I understand, but hopefully this will be irrelevant anyway.
|
10-28-2009, 07:52 PM | #1223 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
|
Do you have a conditional order in in case there's a tie? I don't like that the vote is close.
|
10-28-2009, 07:53 PM | #1224 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
|
10-28-2009, 07:56 PM | #1225 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
|
Bueno.
|
10-28-2009, 07:57 PM | #1226 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
|
UNVOTE RA
VOTE NTNDEACON |
10-28-2009, 07:58 PM | #1227 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
|
I'd rather Lathum not have to use his power tonight unless he wants to. In other words, I don't want a tie.
|
10-28-2009, 08:00 PM | #1228 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
|
Deadline
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
10-28-2009, 08:01 PM | #1229 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
|
10-28-2009, 08:01 PM | #1230 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
Ok. I lied.
I did not lie about being Freddy, but I did lie about who I protected. Here is what I did: Night 1 - Hoops Night 2 - PB Night 3 - Lathum Night 4 - Lathum I just figured the wolves would counter by keeping both MartinD and I alive. I don't know if I fooled them into killing Lathum, but we will see.
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
10-28-2009, 08:02 PM | #1231 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
Edit: Attempting to kill Lathum
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
10-28-2009, 08:04 PM | #1232 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
will be pretty funny if I end up dead.
|
10-28-2009, 08:05 PM | #1233 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
|
|
10-28-2009, 08:06 PM | #1234 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
|
|
10-28-2009, 08:06 PM | #1235 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
|
Why protect hoops night one instead of either yourself or PB?
|
10-28-2009, 08:08 PM | #1236 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
|
If JAG just happens to be right about ntn brutaling Lathum I know where my vote is going tomorrow.
|
10-28-2009, 08:08 PM | #1237 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
|
10-28-2009, 08:09 PM | #1238 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
|
10-28-2009, 08:09 PM | #1239 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
|
Of course GE could be setting up an excuse for no night kill if he is the cultist. Now saying that he protected Lathum tonight (instead of waiting until after the result) so that he can act like he protected Latum from an attack if there is no night kill.
|
10-28-2009, 08:10 PM | #1240 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
dying today wouldn't be the worst thing, I have a mid term tomorrow and really don't need this distraction
|
10-28-2009, 08:10 PM | #1241 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
|
|
10-28-2009, 08:11 PM | #1242 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
Quote:
I think if NTN is the brutal who they target will be telling. If they don't target me and there is no night kill I will put more stock in what NTN is claiming |
|
10-28-2009, 08:12 PM | #1243 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
|
|
10-28-2009, 08:12 PM | #1244 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
|
10-28-2009, 08:13 PM | #1245 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
|
|
10-28-2009, 08:13 PM | #1246 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
|
10-28-2009, 08:16 PM | #1247 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
I am never going to be killed on night one, because I have a knack for creating controversy. I was not around when PB revealed and I figured that would target a good player. I was protecting Chief Rum last night until Lathum revealed.
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
10-28-2009, 08:17 PM | #1248 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
|
What a terrible series of events. Scooby is absolutely devestated. "Rhy, oh rhy?!?!?!? Raggy!!!!". You all look about in frustration.
Someone finally says, "We must carry on, if we lose our heads, we may.......lose our heads. If we keep it together, we might find our friends again." You all seem to agree that the speaker is correct. It's time to rally the troops. Thinking through all of the clues you have, the race comes down to two people: Torquemada and Dyno-Mutt. Finally, every crosses their fingers, and chooses to condemn Torquemada. Torquemada is furious, but unfortunately, he is unable to Torquemada anything this time. The police handcuff Torquemada, and then roughly remove his mask. Under the mask, you see a ugly, rotten face, with deep set eyes that hold no life. He glowers at you, and says, "You won't defeat us!! You will fail yet, you blasted kids!!!" In a joyous moment, you realize you have discovered another Monster!! ntndeacon was the Zombie!!!
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
10-28-2009, 08:18 PM | #1249 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
|
Processing all of the "night" portion actions right now.
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
10-28-2009, 08:19 PM | #1250 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
high five!
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
|
|