Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!!

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Well my votes on Swaggs but I'm not deadset on him, and he's posted a good post since my vote, and haven't had a chance to pull posts. My list of 5 and a half I'd gladly try and build a case against, in no particular order:
Swaggs
WVU
Tangle
Cronin
with Jeeber being the half.

I'm not buying Swaggs as much right now. My list other than CW/RA/Dubb would probably be Cronin, Anxiety and I'll join you with a half for Jeeber.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I responded briefly to this up above.

You're assuming: There still is, or ever was a bodyguard. I'm hoping like hell there is.

Further, if there is, and he, as he should, protect me tonight, he HAS to reveal himself tomorrow, or I retain zero credibility. At which point, HE is the biggest target for conversion. We get one night's use out of him.

By this logic, you'll never be tested because you'll use this exact same argument each night. No, it should end tonight and get the tested over.

If's I'm wrong and you're clean, we have time to recover and move into a different direction.

If I'm right and you're not tested, you never will be and it'll be the end of the game for us.

To those who are undecided: if we do not test Coffee tonight, I can assure you him and his defenders will assure he never will be. If you let his logic dictate your decision, that same logic will still work the next night. Let's at least make sure he'll clean this night -- the rest of the game will feel itself out on it's own.

[Barkeep49]

Ok so I think I'm going to look at tangle since hoops already has his vote there. It's only 31 posts so I'm hoping to knock it out in about 15 minutes if I'm not interupted here at work.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

I'm not buying Swaggs as much right now. My list other than CW/RA/Dubb would probably be Cronin, Anxiety and I'll join you with a half for Jeeber.

Hoops checked out anxiety earlier. You see anything good there? Instead of tangle I'll check out cronin instead then for ya path. That's 101 posts though so it'll be more like 45 minutes.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Hoops checked out anxiety earlier. You see anything good there? Instead of tangle I'll check out cronin instead then for ya path. That's 101 posts though so it'll be more like 45 minutes.

Actually, I'm the one who checked Anxiety. It's probably first game things but there were definitely some weird vibes there. I don't think there's any way we could get a consensus there for today. I don't have 45 minutes, but what kind of feel to you get from Cronin so far? He seems very convinced and says he was all along, but some of his earlier posts I read yesterday had me thinking he was not as settled as he'd like us to believe.

Anyone else? Or is it just me....I'll freely admit I have trouble reading him.

[Barkeep49]

Cronin has hinted at being an informed shit all game long and the sister-screwer still hasn't told us jackshit. I'm doing the post recap now but that be my impression without going deeper.

[path12]

And.....nothin'. Nobodys moving anywhere by the looks of it, BK.

Well, fuck. I'm gonna have to leave it where it is. Not thrilled, but don't see any better choice that's gonna get any traction.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I'm going to go ahead and

Unvote Swaggs
Vote St.Cronin

Based on early posts alone.

[Raiders Army]

UNVOTE BLADE 6119
VOTE DUBB93

Might as well do this. I'll follow CW since I believe he's the seer. Also, the way I see it right now, it'll be either CW or dubb at this point. If it's CW, at the very least we net some knowledge.

[Raiders Army]

I'm also out until after the lynch. Survivor and all that.

[mckerney]

Vote St.Cronin

[tanglewood]

I don't have any real read on Cronin, so could be persuaded to switch to him. What's the logic on him being a possible Thing?

[Barkeep49]

Still going through things, but imporant fact:

Cronin was only ever taken off the original list of non brilliants because Qwik voted for him and was the 3rd vote to do so when the vote leader had four. It was argued to be too close a margin play.

I am feeling all sorts of bad vibes from his early posts and am now thinking there's a high liklihood that he might be an original shiteater.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

I don't have any real read on Cronin, so could be persuaded to switch to him. What's the logic on him being a possible Thing?

I'm working through his posts now. I will point out what I find suspicious when I am done though. I am at post 348 only so I do have a bit to go. I will work quickly.

[hoopsguy]

Looks like people have had quite a few thouhts while I was doing the daily commute ... I'll post updated votes when I catch up.

[Barkeep49]

Well cronin's actions do him credit yesterday. I am up to 749 and having more doubts. Should finish in about 10 minutes or so unless he went wild on posts today.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I'm going to finish cronin but I think he's clean now despite an awfully suspicious start. Instead I'm going to go after a sparring budy of his yesterday
Unvote cronin
Vote WVU
At this point I have no expectation of getting a majority, but I would like to get my vote right before they fuckers assimilate me tonight.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, I think I liked the vote better for both Swaggs and Cronin, but I still will go with the appointed green party candidate instead of Warlord (who I believe) or Dubb (decent chance bodyguard was on him, only one night to be converted instead of two, too obvious a play for a solo Thing last night).

UNVOTE TANGLEWOOD
VOTE WVUFAN

[hoopsguy]

Updated votes, as of Post #1218:

Blade - Anxiety (696)

Coffee - WVUFAN (741), Blade (895), Swaggs (930), Dubb (931), Path (985), Tanglewood (1125)

Dubb - JeeberD (952), Coffee (1188), Cronin (1190), Raiders (1209)

Cronin - mckerney (1211)

WVU - Barkeep (1217), Hoopsguy (1218)



Lets be careful that we don't end up with a tie this evening. Could happen with the 6-4 margin right now ...

[Barkeep49]

Hoops you around until lynch? Would love to discuss this with you as soon as I finish this fucking recap.

[hoopsguy]

I think so.

[hoopsguy]

mckerney, what prompted your vote change? You and Cronin both seemed pretty dug in on Blade earlier. Did he present an argument that moved you or did you think that it was a lost cause that he would get enough votes tonight?

[dubb93]

I'm around again, but not to lynch. Can't believe everyone wants me tested again. If you would like to, go for it but CW is the much better play.

Again, my vote is staying where it is and I'm about to go watch survivor. If you are up for a big circle of clearing me go for it, but at some point you clowns are going to have to quit voting me and actually start looking for a thing.

[Swaggs]

I gotta take off for a bit.

Looks like there are enough people around to keep a tie from happening.

[Barkeep49]

So hoops what do you like about cronin?

What I didn't like about WVU is that he came around at the same time his team would have really needed him to come around, that is when he's the only shitface there. That was a strike against him.

But I'm far more interested in talking about cronin who I find to be a fascinating character this game.

[Barkeep49]

Let's look at cronin's 101 posts, shall we?

St.Cronin
84 -

game on, you scientifisizzic bizzitches

Now who's breaking out the fucking language? Hmm?
86 - Has 15 page paper to do
92 - Agrees with anxiety about the (stupid) ritual of claiming to be a regular villager
105 - Makes what I believe to be a meaningless movie reference
109 - Votes for schmidty
113 - Meaningless post
148 - Votes for jeeber for admittedly no reason
157 -

I see this game as very heavily slanted towards the Thing(s). Without knowing what the special roles are, my strategy (were I a thing) would simply be to add the better, more experienced players to our side. If they last more than about 2 nights, they will likely win.

Of course, they might only start out with 1 Thing - that would change things a bit.

246 - Says he doesn't understand the game and is just a scientist
256 - Votes for dubb saying Dubb's the one he'd have tried to convert as a shitface
273 - Feels Jeeber is a bad conversion target as he is a likely bodyguard protect
295 - Doesn't like us discussing the brilliant part
297 - Asks how we know that Qwik was a shitface
301 - Asks how I knew Qwik was a shitface
302- Clarifies that he meant before I kill him
304 - Suggests we test Qwik's remains to find out if I'm telling the truth
305 - Wants discussion on finding an original versus converted shitface
313 - Thinks that I am not the way to go (though not that I'm innocent). Wants to go after the best player, who is dubb
318 - Meaningless post about my fucking language
322 - Wants to know what signs I saw
334 - Doesn't like the idea that people think there was not a conversion
343 - Doesn't like my list. Votes for me.
348 - Thinks finding an original or converted shitface is all the same
390 - Still doesn't understand game. Thinks it's impossible for shitfaces to lose.
401 - Has hypethesis but needs me tested first
403 - Thinks there is more to my role
410 - Vote is staying on me. Views it as win-win
498 - Votes Raiders with no explanation
502 - When asked to explain vote thinks there is one person out there with proof of something
505 - Unvotes Raiders
506 - Thought Raiders voted for me
508 - Votes dubb, as a convert
521 - Thinks it's an all or nothing day for Shitfaces. If villagers miss they are back to square 1
523 - First choice is raiders, second me, as converted shitface
527 - Feels a vote for saldana is a clearing gesture
533 - In response to Blade saying that a shitface could have flipped to save saldana

That scenario only works IF the vote swap hadn't worked. If it had forced a tie and nobody got tested, or if had Barkeep had tested clean, then the Things maybe get another convert, saldana would still would have been one suspect among several, and then the move would have worked.

Which, incidentally, is another reason why Barkeep is a suspect in my mind.

537 - Saying that a forced tie was possible
540 - Reminds blade that a successful test means no night cycle
545 - Agrees with a post hoops made stating that he is surprised the shitface didn't try to save saldana. Votes for Blade.
547 -

Of course it could've created a tie. Raiders could have typed unvote saldana, vote Jeeber. That would've made a tie.

I'm starting to like Blade as a thing ... he's usually very logical.

623 - Meaningless post
636 - States if dubb is a scientist wants people to look closely at those who voted for both dubb and myself
642 - Points out that all shitfaces are converts at one point or another
645 - Agrees that with a RA point that perhaps we can assume Qwik is not a shitface
722 - Doesn't want to vote for CW as we need to find a shitface everyday. Votes for Blade
725 - Believes CW is the seer
727 - Doesn't understand why CW as former seer current shitface would come foward
730 - Argues that if CW argues for somebody who is clean, one of them gets tested the following day
731 - Argues downside to CW's ploy, with RA getting tested, is very large
737 - Responding to WVU about a shitface clearing a villager

No, I disagree - I think a Thing would only bust out this strategy if one of their own were about to get tested. Or, possibly, they might use it as an endgame strategy. So if RA is clean, then CW is clean, and vice versa. I mean, I know that in this game the bad play is sometimes the good play, but all the attention was on RA: Who had CW as a real suspect?

742 - Argues CW coming foward makes sense only if he knows both are clean
749 -

Not to get testy, but you're not remotely addressing the logic that I'm presenting. Coffee was NOT a suspect. Assuming he's a Thing, why bust out a new strategy? There's absolutely ZERO upside, unless both he and RA are Things - then it could maybe buy them another day. But the downside is enormous in that situation. It's a massively risky strategy.

Possibility 1: CW is seer, and RA is clean. I would have done the same thing he did.

Possibility 2: CW is Thing, and RA is clean. In this case, why not let RA get tested? CW would then get one more Thing.

Possibility 3: CW is Thing, and RA is Thing: Here the strategy would make SOME sense, but it would also be highly risky, because some players would want to test CW right away (as you do). Others would still want to test RA, either way CW or RA gets tested, they lose a night cycle, and whichever one didn't get bbqed first, gets bbqed second

751 - Argues we should vote for blade since 1. Voted for dubb 2. When saldana was on the block argued to test me 3. Been out of character
752 - Asumes that WVU is clean based on his absence
754 - wonders what UTR means
758 - Thinks missing two votes would take UTR too far
763 - Meaningless post
780 - Believes if CW and RA are both things, would have made sense to wait
781 - Reminds WVU that as soon as CW came out people were arguing he should be tested
808 - Has been anti-Blade for a while
811 - Is confused by a question from hoops
826 - Believes that between either dubb or RA Blade voted for a villager
833 - Doesn't believe in the CW/RA theory
839 - Reminds people that he's voted for Blade before. Thinks Blade's style of posting has been unusual.
849 - Responding to Blade, says that he hasn't been worried about the quantity of Blade's posts
854 - Thinks there are 2 shitfaces. Suggests me and Jeeber as possiblities besides Blade
874 - Says he voted for Blade early in the cycle
883 - Thinks he knows who the convert is but is going to wait to say
889 - Thinks voting record can be accurate
899 - Gives an addmittedly confusing post about the validity of voting records but basically says he uses it when deciding how to vote
903 - Doesn't take the game personally
906 - Tries to convince hoops to vote for Blade
937 - Thinks that the longer the vote goes the more likely it is for Blade NOT to be tested
951 - Trusts hoop but not dubb. If Blade is clean would reverse that
954 - Meaningless
957 - Insult towards Jeeber
973 - Meaningless
975 - MEaningless
980 - Thinks ability to convert is pretty fantastic
983 - Thinks I WAS a scientist
984 - Which means less and less as game goes on
1057 -

I see that apparently CW is now in the lead to be tested. I am more sure that he is NOT a Thing than that Blade IS a Thing.

I have played this game mostly close to the vest. I will continue to do so: I have my suspects and Blade is at the top of the list. CW is one of about three of you that I am sure is NOT a Thing. For today.

My vote stands. I hope the rest of you come to your senses about CW.

1059 - Admits he misplayed at start, but thinks he has it now
1062 - Again says CW's reveal makes no sense if he's not clean
1067 - Again argues fake reveals are an end game strategy
1068 -

I am not keeping any information close. What I am holding onto are THEORIES which I will bust out when the time comes. You see, I think I know who the two things are: Blade and another. Once we burn Blade, I will post my thoughts on the other one. Keeping it close to the vest allows him to expose himself even more.

1077 - Thinks its goofy for Blade to think CW and RA are shitfaces
1081 - Refuses to say he's brilliant but does claim to be a scientist
1117 - Stresses importance of finding a shitface as night cycle invalidates the test
1122 - Again doesn't understand the idea of testing someone to validate which then is invalidated
1124 - Wonders if I am bad does that make Qwik clean in response to a tangle post
1130 - Encourages tangle to vote concious and let someone else break the tie
1132 - Says when lynch is
1152 - Says testing CW tomorrow is fine just not tonight
1159 - Says CW HAS to be converted tonight lest he get another view
1176 - Says he's out for the night
1183 - About CW

Well, if you assume he's converted, he needs to be tested today, duh.

So assume he's unconverted, since we're not talking about testing him today: I've said my piece on that already, and won't rehash it here.

If he's unconverted, the Things HAVE TO CONVERT HIM TONIGHT - if they don't, he gets another view. They HAVE TO - doing otherwise would be like pitching to Albert Pujols with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs in the ninth inning with a pitcher on deck and no pinch hitters available.

1190 - Votes for dubb, for real this time

[Barkeep49]

Unvote WVU
Vote st.cronin
On the off chance we can get a majority.

[hoopsguy]

Well, at the moment I kind of feel like he has been all over the map. I don't know if there is enough time for me to look up all of the posts so I'll go from memory and try to find them if my recollection doesn't jive with what you have seen.

Day 1 - no impressions at all
Day 2 - wanted us to test you instead of going after Saldana
Day 3 - hard on Blade all day, but now is on Dubb

All along the way he has hinted at having theories, but not really sharing them. I can respect that; it isn't the way I play the game, but every makes what they think are the best decisions. I don't know if he was barking up the wrong tree with Blade, but the last-minute switch (following CW) from Blade to Dubb followed by off-to-class makes it hard to understand his thinking.

In comparison, I think WVU has staked a strong position here (not one that I agree with, as I think he is incorrect) and maintained it even in the face of criticism on multiple fronts. Wolves tend to be more adaptive creatures.

I don't have a ton of experience playing against either of these guys, so I don't trust my gut as much as I do with the four guys who are up for review today. But gut says that WVU is on our side today (or last two days, depending on how you look at Day 3).

[hoopsguy]

I'll take a read through those posts now, thanks for the recap.

In case I don't finish them before the deadline (and because I believe Warlord and that we are going to be wasting the day here):

UNVOTE WVUFAN
VOTE ST. CRONIN

[tanglewood]

Okay, since I think both Coffee and Dubb are clean and there are a few questionable things brought up in Barkeep's analysis, I will move to Cronin if we can guarentee a majority.

Currently, it's Coffee 6, Dubb 4, Cronin 3. If I move Coffee to Cronin without a guarentee, then it makes the possibility of someone swwoping in for a tie too high to risk it.

[tanglewood]

Great, 4 in the thread, 3 on Cronin already and want who wants to move, but we still wouldn't get a majority.

[hoopsguy]

Agree with you on the risk, Tanglewood. And at the moment it looks pretty quiet in here after two wicked busy days. Weird.

[hoopsguy]

BTW, this is the first time I've had enough time to read through one of the post recaps line-by-line. Thanks for doing this Barkeep, as I know it must have taken a lot of work.

[tanglewood]

Well, we're going to find out if we've got a seer or not I guess.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, Post #1225

What I didn't like about WVU is that he came around at the same time his team would have really needed him to come around, that is when he's the only shitface there. That was a strike against him.

Barkeep, WVU came in after sitting out the day where we believe there was only one Thing. If he was the Day 1 convert I think they could have used him during the Day 2 (part 1) vote where Saldana went down 5-4.

[Raiders Army]

Back, but only temporarily. I'm out for the rest of the night. If CW was the seer, this was a wasted vote. The only good thing to come out of it is that he, hoops, and I were cleared up until certain points.

[WVUFAN]

When is the vote deadline?

[Barkeep49]

So I'm still working on what I think about cronin but have been helping people at work and have been delayed. I think this is a good discussion to hav before the conversion though.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

When is the vote deadline?

7 minutes ago.

[Barkeep49]

Ok let me explain what I do and don't like about cronin

Don't Like
*He never used brilliant or was otherwise cleared
*Was stuck on a person all day long, and loudly at that and then moves close to lynch -- TWICE; First with me and now with Blade
*His weird hangup on testing me or testing the remains of Qwik -- only later on in the game to state that we should be trying to find things (just be clear saying I should be tested ins't weird, but the way he's done it has been)
*Has had theories at a few points which he is keeping to himself

Do Like
*His rabid insistence on the stupidity of CW revealing. Time will tell, but he's been a forceful advocate of this being stupid all day long and his logic has been firm and solid

Now the catch is that the thing I do like about him doesn't mean that the don't likes couldn't be accurately revealing him a shitface.

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok let me explain what I do and don't like about cronin

Don't Like
*He never used brilliant or was otherwise cleared
*Was stuck on a person all day long, and loudly at that and then moves close to lynch -- TWICE; First with me and now with Blade
*His weird hangup on testing me or testing the remains of Qwik -- only later on in the game to state that we should be trying to find things (just be clear saying I should be tested ins't weird, but the way he's done it has been)
*Has had theories at a few points which he is keeping to himself

Do Like
*His rabid insistence on the stupidity of CW revealing. Time will tell, but he's been a forceful advocate of this being stupid all day long and his logic has been firm and solid

Now the catch is that the thing I do like about him doesn't mean that the don't likes couldn't be accurately revealing him a shitface.

These two points have struck me as well.

[Coffee Warlord]

Company gone, deadline is past, no idea where the votes stand.

[hoopsguy]

I tend to think that the Things were big fans of the Coffee testing today:
- it means that they are not being tested tonight
- assuming there is a bodyguard (and that he has not been converted), they put him in a tough position both tonight and tomorrow night on who to guard


With that in mind, they probably split their votes up to avoid linkage. So I would look for one on the CW group tonight and the other one probably steered clear of him the whole way to avoid positive or negative attention.

But they (the Things) do have to deal with the seer over the next couple of days. It obviously isn't in their interests to let him keep taking shots. The chess game is on for the moment. Disregard all of this if the Warlord was a lying shitface.

[hoopsguy]

Warlord, it looks like you are being tested. Here is what I showed for final vote:

Blade - Anxiety (696)

Coffee - WVUFAN (741), Blade (895), Swaggs (930), Dubb (931), Path (985), Tanglewood (1125)

Dubb - JeeberD (952), Coffee (1188), Cronin (1190), Raiders (1209)

Cronin - mckerney (1211), Barkeep (1227), Hoopsguy (1229)

[Coffee Warlord]

Three cheers for a bunch of morons/things.

Now that I've gone and happily blown my cover, time to figure out who to view tonight.

[Coffee Warlord]

And while you're waiting, I kindly direct you to re-read the thread with the understanding that I was telling the truth the whole bloody time.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Three cheers for a bunch of morons/things.

Now that I've gone and happily blown my cover, time to figure out who to view tonight.

Doesn't matter as your word is worth less then that of a torture victim starting as soon as the night results go up.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Doesn't matter as your word is worth less then that of a torture victim starting as soon as the night results go up.

Ayup.

[hoopsguy]

Did Schmidty post a time that we should expect results tonight?

[Coffee Warlord]

He's not even showing online right now, so I dunno.