04-09-2009, 09:14 PM | #1201 |
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Everyone files into the meeting room and waits. You sit and wonder who will be next. As you wait what seems like forever you begin to count to see if everyone is there.
You see eleven of you, that is everyone. "Reorganization has been rescheduled for 5:00 this evening." you hear from the intercom. Unsure of what has just happened you leave the room and return to your cubicles. Nothing seems different. You decide that 4:00 will be your meeting to eliminate an Insider though you wonder if that is really the best name for that meeting anymore... |
04-09-2009, 09:15 PM | #1202 |
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Sorry, have daughters who don't want to stay in bed tonight. Battling interuptions.
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04-09-2009, 09:16 PM | #1203 |
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Location: DeKalb, IL
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Okay, looks like they found Drew. That means we're either 8-3 or 7-4. I believe that 8-3 is more likely for balance.
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04-09-2009, 09:16 PM | #1204 |
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Well I'll be interested to hear any reports. I assume they either got blocked or hit Drew.
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04-09-2009, 09:18 PM | #1205 |
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PB says no block. Looks like they hit Drew. PB's synopsis looks right with the wolf report.
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04-09-2009, 09:39 PM | #1206 |
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Guys, I apologized to EF but I didn't mean to jump the gun on his post. I read my PM and had a brain fart and posted my results before he got up the summary. So my bad for that.
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04-09-2009, 09:45 PM | #1207 |
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's ok
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04-09-2009, 10:10 PM | #1208 |
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04-09-2009, 10:11 PM | #1209 |
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Who did you guard Purdue?
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04-09-2009, 10:16 PM | #1210 |
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04-09-2009, 10:18 PM | #1211 |
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And if he isn't, I'm sure we will see shortly as there is no reason for the BG not to come out and catch PB.
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04-09-2009, 10:27 PM | #1212 |
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Yes, and this thing with posting before EagleFan did strikes me as a good sign too.
I worried though that he may be Drew and was inviting a wolf hit. But if no one's outed him by morning I suppose we're good. |
04-09-2009, 10:34 PM | #1213 |
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Let me walk you through some of my actions. On night one, I guarded Claphamsa because I thought that he may be doing exactly what he did, revealing as the link to the seer but was actually the seer. Unfortunately, once they hit Schmidty, I was screwed on night 2. I guarded CR on night 2 simply out of necessity to pick someone when it was obvious what they were going to do. I'll stop there for certain reasons that pertain to vulnerabilities for this coming night. If you guys really want to push, I'll reveal the rest.
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04-09-2009, 10:47 PM | #1214 |
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No need, thanks.
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04-09-2009, 10:48 PM | #1215 |
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I'm assuming we're 7-4. You think we started out with 3 wolves, Purdue?
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04-09-2009, 11:02 PM | #1216 |
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I think so Autumn but like I said earlier, I'll prepare for worst case scenario which means we had 18 players, 4 wolves, 1 Drew which means we could currently be in a big bind: 7-4. Best case, we're at 8-3. This is part of why I revealed when I did, so that we have two trusted members. I'll be honest though, balance wise, I do think we are at 8-3 right now but we'll see.
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04-10-2009, 12:22 AM | #1217 | |
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Quote:
I'm not sure, I think 4 starting wolves was more likely. 3 seems a bit low if the wolves never hit Drew and had to play the whole 18 player game with 3 wolves. Either way I think we definitely need to play for the worst case scenario. |
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04-10-2009, 12:23 AM | #1218 |
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Agreed, I think we are 7-4 now. Means we needs to start hitting.
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04-10-2009, 01:06 AM | #1219 |
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One thing to consider is that the wolves probably felt confident they were going to get Drew last night if they decided to avoid the BG situation entirely. I haven't really noticed anything, but did anyone drop any hints that they might be Drew?
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04-10-2009, 01:18 AM | #1220 |
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Drew's probably better able to drop hints that are clear to the wolves than to the rest of us, since we don't have the advantage of knowing who the wolves are, unfortunately.
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04-10-2009, 01:22 AM | #1221 | |
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Quote:
Per the rules he does not know who they are either. So I think the wolves were in the same boat as us for trying to figure out who he was (with the helpful exception that they can eliminate themselves). |
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04-10-2009, 01:36 AM | #1222 | |
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Quote:
Yup, you're right. I thought the Drew role was more traditional.
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04-10-2009, 08:06 AM | #1223 |
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We have an evening action and deadline tonight?
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04-10-2009, 08:27 AM | #1224 |
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I wondered the same about Drew dropping hints. That was why I suspected Purdue of a fake reveal possibly. Still no sign of a counter reveal though.
The wolves may have just got lucky. They might have figured Purdue's reveal as a fake to draw an attack and so gone after someone else. Numbers are low enough now that they'd have a pretty good chance. If we're 7-4 right now, and were 8-3 before the conversion, they have what, a 1 in 6 chance of hitting Drew, given the Duke and Bodyguard reveals. Still, it's worth looking for any hints - Drew might have been wanting to get on a team with a better track record. |
04-10-2009, 08:35 AM | #1225 |
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Well I suck at detecting hints, but haven't seen any in the people I've done post analysis for. Also I definitely see us at 7-4 now. We're not quite in do or die territory but we're damn close.
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04-10-2009, 09:14 AM | #1226 |
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Thoughts for today? Are we still at the Autumn-Abe-possibly BK impass? I'll check for some hints today but even with being off, the wife and I have a ton of crap to do so I'll be around on and off.
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04-10-2009, 09:22 AM | #1227 |
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With how things are going, I think we've all become a bit tentative. Out of those three players, I am probably most suspicious of BK right now, but his analysis yesterday was helpful. It's early though and I don't think too well in the morning :P
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04-10-2009, 09:24 AM | #1228 |
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I'm jealous. This game I haven't thought well morning noon or night.
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04-10-2009, 09:26 AM | #1229 | |
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Quote:
I'd also love to hear some more from Poli today, since I have no clue where he stands with stuff. |
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04-10-2009, 09:43 AM | #1230 |
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The longer BK remains alive, the more suspicious I get of him, although I still agree with Lathum's logic from yesterday about Autumn.
Look, BK is being a real help to the village with his analysis. Why would you leave alive an experienced vet who is also being really helpful to the other side? Every day that passes brings more suspicion on BK to my mind.
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04-10-2009, 09:50 AM | #1231 |
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I'm going to start with where I've been for two days and still look around from there.
vote Autumn |
04-10-2009, 09:53 AM | #1232 |
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04-10-2009, 10:25 AM | #1233 | |
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Quote:
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04-10-2009, 10:53 AM | #1234 |
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Yes, unfortunately I don't think the wolves have had to worry too much about targeting vocal villagers. We've managed to do enough damage without their input. Of course, we don't know who they targeted last night.
I don't have a lot of analysis to add at this point, I feel stymied. I had actually been suspecting PurdueBrad until his reveal, and obviously I pushed for Lathum and Cartman before that. I don't have a good handle, but I'm glad to look at some analysis other people have. |
04-10-2009, 11:33 AM | #1235 |
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I see Pass in the thread. I'm guessing he could tell us who a wolf or two is.
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04-10-2009, 01:37 PM | #1236 |
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04-10-2009, 01:38 PM | #1237 |
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Votes as of 1235:
Autumn 1 - PurdueBrad (1231) yet to vote: everyone else |
04-10-2009, 01:39 PM | #1238 |
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Wow, we really have nothing going at all today, do we? Some suspicion still aimed at Autumn, mine too, for that matter, but it looks like BK and Abe are potential suspects. I really believe there's a wolf among BK and Abe, but I don't know which way to lean on that one. Anyone have anything more substantial than just thoughts and feelings?
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04-10-2009, 01:59 PM | #1239 |
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The fact that there's not much discussion suggests that one or more of the suspects being discussed isn't a wolf. Otherwise I would think they'd be busy digging up other suspects. I know I'm a villager, I would guess that at least one of Abe and Barkeep are villagers too then. I suppose from my view the best thing we could do then is to get the heat up on both of them (or all three for the rest of you) and see what happens.
I suspected Barkeep was somewhat coming to my aid so that if I got offed he looked good. Nothing hard and fast there. Abe just makes me wonder because he often seems to pop in with just an offhand remark, the sort of "oh yeah he's active but I don't remember anything he thinks" ploy that could be wolf-like. I will look back some more and vote for one of those. Let's get some votes out to at least flush the wolves into action. |
04-10-2009, 02:12 PM | #1240 |
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I don't really see Abe or Barkeep at this point having looked back through posts. They've both done some things which seem more villager than me. I think I'm stuck at this point basically picking one of the quieter folks I'm unsure of and hoping I get lucky. USFL, Lerriuqs, Poli, Danny, Martin and Dubb93. I'll take a look at them and pick a suspect.
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04-10-2009, 02:13 PM | #1241 |
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Vote Barkeep
I honestly can't see any reason to go elsewhere today. |
04-10-2009, 02:17 PM | #1242 |
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I can go with Autumn, I think Lathum's points, good yesterday, look even better when coming from a certified villager.
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04-10-2009, 02:17 PM | #1243 |
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Vote Autumn
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04-10-2009, 02:18 PM | #1244 |
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VOTE Barkeep
This is more of a placeholder than anything. I have a mini-party to go to tonight, but I have no idea when I'll be leaving. I suspect in the next 3 hours I'll be out the door. I'm almost with Abe on this one, which kind of worries me. I believe I've been led astray in the past by "village helpers", guys who make "reviews" of other players posts. In fact, I believe I've done that in my former life as ardent enthusiast.
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04-10-2009, 02:19 PM | #1245 |
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Wow, when I started typing there was just one vote out there. Creepy.
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04-10-2009, 02:26 PM | #1246 |
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Votes as of 1245:
Autumn 2 - PurdueBrad (1231), Abe Sargent (1243) Barkeep49 2 - dubb93 (1241), Poli (1244) yet to vote: USFLTecmo, lerriuqs, Chief Rum, Danny, MartinD, Barkeep49, Autumn |
04-10-2009, 02:35 PM | #1247 |
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At this point, I have no idea where to go, but given that we're all over the place and haven't done very well I think the place to look is in who is starting the votes...Not ending them. I'll try to in a bit, but I'm alone with my boy today so I don't know how much time I'll have for it.
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04-10-2009, 03:10 PM | #1248 |
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Hmmm, I come back and we have almost no activity.
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04-10-2009, 03:24 PM | #1249 |
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I'm going to go a different direction for now to at least see what comes up. I've kind of had some suspicion of him since early on, but we've never really pressed it. If this develops into a two person race, I'll likely switch and decide on one of the two lead choices.
Vote Lerriuqs |
04-10-2009, 03:26 PM | #1250 |
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Hopefully this will at least get some discussion going.
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