WW 103? - 42 Attempts (Game Over - Conspirators Win)

[Chief Rum]

I don't know how we can do this vote thing.

Either we coordinate (and we can only do so publically being villagers) and the wolves kill our new Fuhrer, or we try to be sneaky/let people vote how they may, and the wolves pick one of themselves for the Fuhrer.

[Danny]

I will do more thorough analysis over the weekend, but at this point CR, Schmidty and I have to be at the top of the trust list. I'd say Saldana would be above the others (Kwhit, Jackal) as well

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I don't know how we can do this vote thing.

Either we coordinate (and we can only do so publically being villagers) and the wolves kill our new Fuhrer, or we try to be sneaky/let people vote how they may, and the wolves pick one of themselves for the Fuhrer.

I think we do it publicly and keep the role out of the wolves hands even if that means the voted person dying.

[Danny]

Right now we are either 4-3 or 5-2, so we can still ill afford a mistake.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

So good job CR and Schmidty there at the end.

You deserve a nod, too. Seeing how Autumn was acting about my focus on which way to go on saldana/KWhit, and just the tenor of some of his other posts late struck me wrong, and especially when I saw it was so close after his vote. It all swung back to me, Danny, your theory on the wolf split, which you may have noticed, I was championing most of the day, but got away from after the bombing. I prepped a post and hit refresh several times, waiting for the anticipated wolf move. When none came, I just decided to go for it.

Obviously, very glad I did.

[Danny]

Agian, more analysis will come, but I think we look to those who took part in the meeting today. If we bump up Saldana a notch, that would mean Kwhit would have to be a wolf.

[Chief Rum]

I am comfortable with looking at KWhit, PB and The Jackal, of course. I haven't lost my suspicions of The Jackal actually.

But if it comes down to saldana or KWhit, we're back to the same argument. KWhit was at that first meeting; Lathdana was not.

Could Autumn have been telling the truth about the numbers (in some strange way), and that's why KWhit could be Stauffenberg and yet have not pulled the trigger at the first meeting?

[Danny]

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
[color="Green"]LoneStarGirl[/C

(also EF, I clicked Edit from when I posted this on page 20 so I had it easy to edit and accidentally clicked the submit edit button, so there will be an edit from me on that page)

[EagleFan]

Day Six deadline will be Monday at 10 EST.

Unless there is a unanymous vote to make it Sunday. Don't want to intrude on anyone's weekend.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

If we bump up Saldana a notch, that would mean Kwhit would have to be a wolf.

I would be interested in your take on the KWhit at the first meeting debate. You weren't able to participate in that one, of course.

I was surprised Autumn came out the way he did and did not openly consider the reason I gave for going with Lathdana. He said I was being stubborn, but I was actually of the impression he was the one being stubborn.

[Danny]

I think there is a good chance the wolves would not pull the trigger with only one wolf at that first meeting. Things were going well for them, no need to risk it when it would appear the chances for success are not good.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

(also EF, I clicked Edit from when I posted this on page 20 so I had it easy to edit and accidentally clicked the submit edit button, so there will be an edit from me on that page)

Too much morphene in the ICU?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

(also EF, I clicked Edit from when I posted this on page 20 so I had it easy to edit and accidentally clicked the submit edit button, so there will be an edit from me on that page)

WOLF!

[Chief Rum]

I hope a vote analysis will be revealing, and separate one from the other.

[Danny]

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl

Day 2

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Day 3

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

Day 4

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939)

Day 5

Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum
saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157)
KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

[Danny]

I forgot to green Abe in a couple of those, but otherwise should be right.

[Danny]

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl

Day 2

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Day 3

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

Day 4

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939)

Day 5

Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum
saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157)
KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

One more time, so it can be right.

[KWhit]

Yay! We finally got one!

Jeez, that took forever.

I don't have a ton of time now to go through everything and make a big long post, unfortunately. I'm a vanilla villager.

And we still haven't found the bomber. If the bomber were at the first meeting, why wouldn't he have tried to kill Hitler then?

Hitler's killer has to be Lathum/Saldana.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I forgot to green Abe in a couple of those, but otherwise should be right.

Oh come on, can't you "green" me now?

[Danny]

1st meeting

Danny
Telle
GoldenEagle
JAG
J23
Kwhit
PurdueBrad

Not at meeting

1. Lathum
2. The Jackal
3. Schmidty
6. Autumn
11. Abe Sargent
12. Chief Rum
14. ntndeacon
17. bulletsponge

I think in this list, in all likelihood, one of PB/Kwhit is a wolf and then there is one or two wolves from the second list

[Danny]

So basically I think we choose from Kwhit, PurdueBrad, Lathana and Jackal.

I believe CR is a not a wolf, but even if he is I think we have to go with the assumption he is good. I think the same for Schmidty who I have read as good all game.

[Chief Rum]

Elser knows who the other wolves are, right? He just can't communicate with them?

[Danny]

I'm starting to think there may only be 3 starting wolves. I am not sure by any means, but the play by Autumn and others didn't scream to me end game scenario which the lynch would have been if there were 4 wolves.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Elser knows who the other wolves are, right? He just can't communicate with them?

I believe so

[Danny]

One thing to know today, when Jackal voted it was 2-0 Autumn, he may have been filling in for some trust and then with the villagers switching to Saldana may have not worried about coming on to change it?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

So basically I think we choose from Kwhit, PurdueBrad, Lathana and Jackal.

I believe CR is a not a wolf, but even if he is I think we have to go with the assumption he is good. I think the same for Schmidty who I have read as good all game.

I agree that would be our target list. We have at least a 50% shot, because we know both Stauffenberg and Elser are in this game. It could be a 75% shot.

[Danny]

Those who will attend:
Danny
J23
Lathum/saldana
KWhit

We also obviously know one of those two has to be a wolf as well.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I'm starting to think there may only be 3 starting wolves. I am not sure by any means, but the play by Autumn and others didn't scream to me end game scenario which the lynch would have been if there were 4 wolves.

True. In fact, Autumn said something earlier that I thought I was odd, and now that he is a wolf, it maybe makes some sense. Let me go find it...

[Danny]

One thing from the voting record that stands out to me. Look at day 4, none of the wolf suspects are no Jackal.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I would recommend you just continue with my lynch and settle the question, and go for the bomber tomorrow, but I don't think we have that much time.

Here it is. Post #1113 at 5:07 p.m.

I was wondering if we weren't better off not choosing the bomber, and just sticking with our original plan of removing either Autumn or PB. With four wolves (and we didn't know about Abe's vote counting), I was seeing an Autumn vote as the only way to avoid a wolf-created tie, because we knew we wouldn't get a Danny change of vote to another player.

When Autumn said that, I thought that seemed rather optimistic, to assume we would have another shot tomorrow after killing a villager today (which is the perspective he was attempting to display).

Now it makes sense. He knew if we killed a "villager" today, we would still have another chance tomorrow, assuming Danny lived.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

One thing from the voting record that stands out to me. Look at day 4, none of the wolf suspects are no Jackal.

That would be more suspicious, except both Autumn and KWhit were in the hospital at the time, so couldn't vote. It would be nice if it were that easy...

I am still pretty sure The Jackal is a wolf (regardless of where those players were).

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

That would be more suspicious, except both Autumn and KWhit were in the hospital at the time, so couldn't vote. It would be nice if it were that easy...

I am still pretty sure The Jackal is a wolf (regardless of where those players were).

My post was thinking that if Jackal was not a wolf, a vote or two might have been there from a suspect.

[Danny]

We could always go with the PB theory that he always has a role, and we know he doesn't have a village role this game

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

My post was thinking that if Jackal was not a wolf, a vote or two might have been there from a suspect.

Or he's a fellow wolf, and they stayed away from him because one more vote on him gets him lynched.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Here it is. Post #1113 at 5:07 p.m.

I was wondering if we weren't better off not choosing the bomber, and just sticking with our original plan of removing either Autumn or PB. With four wolves (and we didn't know about Abe's vote counting), I was seeing an Autumn vote as the only way to avoid a wolf-created tie, because we knew we wouldn't get a Danny change of vote to another player.

When Autumn said that, I thought that seemed rather optimistic, to assume we would have another shot tomorrow after killing a villager today (which is the perspective he was attempting to display).

Now it makes sense. He knew if we killed a "villager" today, we would still have another chance tomorrow, assuming Danny lived.

Yeah I think we have to believe one of the these two things are true.

1. Both Autumn and Lathana are wolves
2. There are only three starting wolves

If Lathana is a villager and there are 4 wolves that is end game if they create a tie or make a switch, etc...

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Or he's a fellow wolf, and they stayed away from him because one more vote on him gets him lynched.

Yeah

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

We could always go with the PB theory that he always has a role, and we know he doesn't have a village role this game

Ha! PB would love that.

Whatever we do, I think you, me and Schmidty need to be united on Monday. We have to agree on a choice. Even if we go with someone I don't think is the top candidate, or that you don't, we have to put that aside and just vote. A vote block of three will require all of the other four to beat our choice, and one of them will be a villager, too (at least).

[Chief Rum]

Do we know what happened with saldana? Did he leave after making his KWhit vote? I am trying to make sense of him having a vote on a non-candidate when his butt was on the line.

[Danny]

This here was the vote when that Jackal stuff happened.

As of post 1044:

Autumn 5 - Danny (979), PurdueBrad (1016), Abe Sargent (1020), Chief Rum (1028), Schmidty
Chief Rum 1 - KWhit (1021)
The Jackal 1 - J23 (1035)

Yet to vote: Lathum/saldana, The Jackal, Schmidty, Autumn

Also to note, PB was the second vote on Autumn. At that point a wolf likely would have waited or put up another candidate.

[Danny]

This is what happened.

One thing I just noticed but Jackal today in a string of about 7 posts, voted PB, CR and then finally Autumn. At that time the vote was 5-0 for Autumn and he very well just could have been hoping not to get caught there.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Do we know what happened with saldana? Did he leave after making his KWhit vote? I am trying to make sense of him having a vote on a non-candidate when his butt was on the line.

Definitely needs to be checked out further. With an even number of players, if they were both wolves, having a vote on 3rd party makes a tie very unlikely.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Ha! PB would love that.

Whatever we do, I think you, me and Schmidty need to be united on Monday. We have to agree on a choice. Even if we go with someone I don't think is the top candidate, or that you don't, we have to put that aside and just vote. A vote block of three will require all of the other four to beat our choice, and one of them will be a villager, too (at least).

Very good point, and I am with you guys. How could I not be? I don't really know where to go though. I think that everyone other than you two are fair game, even me. But yeah, I think we need to solidify the vote, so there are no deadline shenanigans.

[Danny]

Would PB really have helped Autumn become a primary candidate with the second vote on him and then un-vote later when it looks to be a runaway and risk that suspicion. From what I am seeing, I feeling better about PB than some others.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Definitely needs to be checked out further. With an even number of players, if they were both wolves, having a vote on 3rd party makes a tie very unlikely.

Actually, that's very interesting. A villager wouldn't care--he would be trying to save himself. A wolfy saldana, though, knowing two wolves were up for the lynch, would have tried to avoid having both wolves buy it in one lynch.

[Danny]

Another thing, I noticed Autumn was potentially giving himself up for a lynch to avoid losing "two villagers". I kind of get the feeling that a tie was what they wanted the least there.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Danny

Another thing, I noticed Autumn was potentially giving himself up for a lynch to avoid losing "two villagers". I kind of get the feeling that a tie was what they wanted the least there.

And then after someone else unvoted him and voted Saldana, he went along with it knowing a no switch there would damn them both.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Would PB really have helped Autumn become a primary candidate with the second vote on him and then un-vote later when it looks to be a runaway and risk that suspicion. From what I am seeing, I feeling better about PB than some others.

Yeah, I'm leaning toward PB being okay, too, but I need to look at things a little more.

As for KWhit/saldana, I am swinging back to thinking saldana's the actual guy we need to look at. The entire basis for my fleeting trust in Lathum was based on DV being a wolf on Day Two, and that wasn't the case. Lathum's vote didn't matter, so any trust he (and saldana) gains from that is gone.

It still makes some sense to me to consider that no way Stauffenberg attends a meeting with Hitler--no matter when the meeting is--and not take a chance at killing him. And that's what we're asked to believe if we say KWhit is Stauffenberg.

The main issue with that theory is that we are completely unaware of the true mechanics behind what is needed for such a meeting attack to happen.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yeah, I'm leaning toward PB being okay, too, but I need to look at things a little more.

As for KWhit/saldana, I am swinging back to thinking saldana's the actual guy we need to look at. The entire basis for my fleeting trust in Lathum was based on DV being a wolf on Day Two, and that wasn't the case. Lathum's vote didn't matter, so any trust he (and saldana) gains from that is gone.

It still makes some sense to me to consider that no way Stauffenberg attends a meeting with Hitler--no matter when the meeting is--and not take a chance at killing him. And that's what we're asked to believe if we say KWhit is Stauffenberg.

The main issue with that theory is that we are completely unaware of the true mechanics behind what is needed for such a meeting attack to happen.

I agree, my gut right now tells me Lathana and Jackal are wolves, but I think Saldana might be the best choice for now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

And then after someone else unvoted him and voted Saldana, he went along with it knowing a no switch there would damn them both.

It sounds like we're both talking ourselves into saldana. I like The Jackal for the other wolf. Schmidty, your take?

Let's hear it for WEST SIDE, BTW! That's right, the left coast is where it's at!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I agree, my gut right now tells me Lathana and Jackal are wolves, but I think Saldana might be the best choice for now.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It sounds like we're both talking ourselves into saldana. I like The Jackal for the other wolf. Schmidty, your take?

Posted at about the same time. Heh...