Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45)

[SirFozzie]

Ok folks, as you know, Ardent unfortunately is stuck with spotty net access for the next couple weeks while he continues to try to find a way to Shake Djibouti, but Sack Attack has graciously agreed to take over the role. Please welcome him graciously.. that means less then five threats on his person, please!

[st.cronin]

Well, I'm interested to see what Sack has to say about our predicament.

[Barkeep49]

My guess will be not much.

[saldana]

so just so i have what Anxiety is saying clear...he gets hunches about people, but Fozzie, who is apparently the master of convoluted and complex roles, was just supposed to figure out on his own who Anxiety trusted or distrusted at any given point in the game? he is just supposed to guess at generalized statements instead of telling Anxiety in his role that he must either post a list with several people under the heading "trust" and some under "suspect", or submit one via PM doing the same thing.....that just seems like an awfully crappy mechanic, especially in a came that seems as polished as this one.

i dont buy it at all

[saldana]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Well, I'm interested to see what Sack has to say about our predicament.

great, another evil genius has entered the game, i wonder if hoopsguy will remember to drop to one knee and ask "what is thy bidding my master?" when ever sack enters the thread ?

[Barkeep49]

So I am out until late afternoon.

[Lathum]

I will be out most of the afternoon at my nieces field day but I wanted to get my vote in before I go. It just seems to me anxiety is back peddeling. Of course it is possible he is telling the truth but if he is at least we gain information. If we go away to ardent then who do we go for? For now

VOTE ANXIETY

[Lathum]

dola- I meant if we go away from anxiety then do we go for ardent...still waking up :

[hoopsguy]

Question for Barkeep/Coffee/Saldana - you have all indicated that you have a shared role. It appears that there has been some challenge/response in terms of the role PM between Saldana and Barkeep, with Coffee weighing in as well. Coffee and Barkeep have been cleared as non-henchmen by Cronin.

1.) Question to all three - do you believe that there could be another person in this shared role?
2.) Is there anything in your role that refers to your previous pack - or to the idea that other members of your previous pack may be in the village?

For someone playing the role of the wizard, it would be pretty convenient to role reveal as a member of this group. So if you guys are able to both screen each other and against other members then it makes it easier for everyone else to look in other areas for the henchmen.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

1.) Question to all three - do you believe that there could be another person in this shared role?

Entirely possible, though I kind of doubt it at this point, since noone else has even attempted to chime in.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

2.) Is there anything in your role that refers to your previous pack - or to the idea that other members of your previous pack may be in the village?

For me, no. Real simple, real straightforward. As I said before, there was one key phrase mentioned by Saldana that made me immediately believe he's on the side of good. And the rest is history.

[hoopsguy]

Going back to the Day 1 votes again, updating the list to account for Saldana as trusted.

Tyrith - Barkeep (158), Path (160)
Blade - Qwik (161), mckerney (176), cronin (188), Tanglewood (251)
mckerney - Lathum (168)
Tanglewood - Schmidty (209), Hoopsguy (213), Tyrith (234), Saldana (238), Blade (254)
Barkeep - Anxiety (219)
Schmidty - Ardent (290)

No votes: AlanT (out for day), Dubb

[Coffee Warlord]

Anxiety, Ardent, and Lathum all stick out like sore thumbs there.

There's a bad guy in there, though I doubt it's more than 1, MAYBE 2. At least a couple of em would have buried their votes in the top candidates. If your color coding is remotely accurate, however, we're narrowing the list of suspects down rapidly.

[hoopsguy]

In the above post - sorted by leading vote getters:

Tanglewood (5) - Schmidty and Tyrith not cleared
Blade (4) - all cleared or dead
Tyrith (2) - all cleared or dead
mckerney, Barkeep, and Schmidty - one vote each, all still out there

If you assume that we started with three antagonists, do you really think they all left their votes out on their own (well, if Alan T is a bad guy then two of them left their votes on their own)?

I remain pretty confident that there is a member of Team Wizard on the group who voted for Tanglewood. It wasn't Blade, it isn't me, and it appears that both Barkeep and Coffee are vouching for Saldana's partial role reveal.

That leaves Schmidty and Tyrith.

Voting Records:
Schmidty
D1: Tanglewood
D2: Hoopsguy
D3: Path

Tyrith
D1: Tanglewood
D2: mckerney
D3: Anxiety

Reasons to mistrust:
Schmidty - no circle of trust information, defensive playing style (quiet until questioned) makes him hard to read

Tyrith - person who could back his role is dead (based on his role reveal), lack of reads based on this being his 2nd game overall

[hoopsguy]

Coffee, I'm pretty certain the red color-coding is accurate.

I feel like I've taken a long look at Anxiety and, barring new information, I'm not planning to vote for him today.

Interestingly enough, the other two I'm looking at most closely now (Schmidty and Tyrith) are not in the list of three you feel are sticking out. If you have reasons that you are convinced of their wolf character, I would love to hear them.

[st.cronin]

Hoops, are you not planning to vote for Anxiety because you think he's a wolf? Or is there some strategy at work here? I have an open mind - make a case for somebody else, and I'll listen.

[Tyrith]

I think a lot of the erratic behavior you've been seeing out of me is a symptom of me not having played a Werewolf game where I've made more than one post a day before. Especially early on I was unsure as to what I was doing, and it kind of shows. I had no part in blade's night 2 mess. My guess is that the person that deflected the attack was the faction leader, who would presumably be stronger than your average wolf.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

1.) Question to all three - do you believe that there could be another person in this shared role?

no,i doubt it based upon what i know about myself.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

2.) Is there anything in your role that refers to your previous pack - or to the idea that other members of your previous pack may be in the village?

i am basing my trust upon how it was asked, more than what was asked. i have no doubt that barkeep is a good guy, and if he clears CW, i will support that as well, although i dont have any first hand clearance on coffee (unless i missed something while drunk for 4 days)

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Interestingly enough, the other two I'm looking at most closely now (Schmidty and Tyrith) are not in the list of three you feel are sticking out. If you have reasons that you are convinced of their wolf character, I would love to hear them.

Not exactly what I meant up there. They DO stick out as lone day 1 votes, nothing more, nothing less. From strictly looking at previous games, usually you'll find a bad guy who pops out a random day 1 vote and vanishes. Avoids piling on an innocent on the first day, and is rarely considered, because there are often good guys who do very much the same.

I have no hard evidence on any of the three, aside from the fact that none of them are really vouched for by anyone. It's the voting strategy I used the last time I was a bad guy (just throw your day 1 vote on someone who doesn't have any and be done with it), hence the reason it might be good to look at now that we're a few days in.

Hope that made at least a shred of sense.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by saldana

although i dont have any first hand clearance on coffee (unless i missed something while drunk for 4 days)

No, you wouldn't, and I don't think Barkeep would have either. I picked up on something you said that's pretty much spot on to my role.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Well, I'm interested to see what Sack has to say about our predicament.

Sack hasn't followed the game at all, and will need some time to catch up with the thread.

Also, as I told Foz in his recruitment thread, Sack is umpiring two playoff games today, so it will be Tuesday before things kick in in earnest.

But I shall endeavor to be as active as I can today.

[hoopsguy]

Darn it, lost something I posted ...

Cronin, I've been trying to make my case for Schmidty and Tyrith, but I'm hoping that other people can help build on my arguments or else point out areas of weakness with them. Even if you are dead set on voting for Anxiety today I would still like to get feedback from people on these two candidates.

Ardent/Sack - I'm still giving him the benefit of the doubt for not lynching me with the deciding vote on Day 2. But any feelings of gratitude for that are dissipating as we get deeper into the game and he remains isolated from the trust group.

Lathum - I have him and AlanT at about the same level. Not too much trust, but not suspicious enough to be my candidate for today.

In playing risk/reward with the candidates, the level of reward is identical for all of them: chance to identify our enemies, hopefully reduce their numbers. But I think there are varying levels of risk.

Tyrith, based on his role reveal, has the lowest level of risk. If he is telling the truth, it doesn't sound like we are risking losing a key role.

Highest level of risk - we could lynch a seer, a pack leader, or some critical role to our group.

I'm not sure how to determine the levels of risk with the other players in the game, but I am hoping that if tanglewood, mckerney, and particularly path (who was around close to the deadline) had critical roles that they would have given some inkling of those rather than dying with them in a game where there is no role information revealed on death.

This is why I have not 100% accepted that path was not a cunning human, or something along those lines. I had made a big deal during Day 3 that I believed this to be a hidden roles game on death. If a wolf is marked for death, then I hope/expect they will disclose information at the end to help our team carry on the battle without them. Path had a chance to do this and did not.

Obviously, Qwikshot and Blade did not have a similar opportunity, since they were night kills.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Schmidty - no circle of trust information, defensive playing style (quiet until questioned) makes him hard to read

I don't have a circle of trust, because I don't completely make up or twist "evidence" to form such a circle.

I'm not going to lie and say that I have the foggiest idea who the humans are, so all I really have to go on is "Who cast suspicion onto me?". It's a crappy strategy, but I'm a crappy WW player.

Here's my circle of trust:

Me.

[saldana]

i must have missed something, can someone give me a post number for Tyrith's role reveal?

[Schmidty]

It's so funny how hoops mind-fucks us all whether good or bad every game.

His long, "insightful" posts always subtley herd everyone toward the targets he deems worthy, and you never see hoops having to be defensive. People always give him a free pass.

Just saying.

[saldana]

hoops, i have a hard time going with you on the schmidty campaign, for the large reason that when i was on him on day 2, no one, including you, paid any attention to me....what i perceive right now is you trying to deflect attention from yourself onto everyone else....i see you playing exactly as you did in the star wars game right now...as soon as any flak comes your way, you create a different target and try and make people switch off to your new candidate.

[saldana]

dola, funny how me and schmidty just said exactly the same thing in consecutive posts....maybe there is some truth there.....just maybe....my vote stays on hoops.

[st.cronin]

Ok, let me just say where I'm at.

Anxiety
Schmidty
Ardent/Sack
Tyrith
-----------
Alan T
-----------
Lathum
Saldana
-----------
Hoopsguy
Coffee
Barkeep

Those are my groupings, from most suspicious to least suspicious. In the most suspicious group, I don't see a whole lot to seperate one from the other. I also doubt that all the bad guys are in that group.

Anxiety and Tyrith have both given roles which, quite frankly, seem a little fishy. I am prepared to leave them alone and look at the other two. But I need more convincing, and neither one has posted much at all. They've been about as helpful as McKerney.

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, it would have been a lot easier for me to go the Anxiety path rather than create new targets. He already has a majority of votes. The only time I would create attention defending a guy like this, playing as an antagonist, is during an end game strategy.

Schmidty - I was in a Day 2 runoff (7-6, with final vote going in with one minute left). I consider myself to be a magnet for werewolf conversation more days than not, regardless of what side I'm on. I do not remotely consider myself as someone who escapes notice when people consider their votes. Just saying

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, quite a bit of new information is out since Day 2. And I do think that I was talking about Schmidty as a candidate that day as well before opting for Tyrith - I was using the Day 1 voting as a big part of my rationale at that time as well. But I was forced off of my Tyrith vote in order to try and keep myself alive, at mckerney's expense. I'll pull post numbers on this if this doesn't ring a bell or if you are calling BS on it.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Schmidty - I was in a Day 2 runoff (7-6, with final vote going in with one minute left). I consider myself to be a magnet for werewolf conversation more days than not, regardless of what side I'm on. I do not remotely consider myself as someone who escapes notice when people consider their votes. Just saying

But even so, nothing has really come of that, and I still see you herding everyone away from you. That's totally fine, but I just wish people were more aware of the fact.

Here's a question that might make you sound at least a little bit human:

Why should you be trusted and not voted for?

[Alan T]

Checking in real quick. I'm at my corporate headquarters this week, so having to sneak peeks and posts in between when people are looking. I have to do a little less forum reading when actually in the same building as my boss

Welcome to the game Sack.

Now catching up on the stuff that I miss, like I have been saying the past few days, my suspect list was: Anxiety, Tyrith and Schmidty. To be honest I don't have much that put one over the others. However, going with Anxiety today has put some heat on him which in my mind sunk him deeper. I do not have any intentions of moving my vote off of him. Perhaps Tyrith or Schmidty need some heat on them to get more information out of them which can help us either give them a pass or sink them.

I honestly don't expect all three of them to be bad guys, but I wouldn't be suprised if as many of 2 of them are bad.

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, it does make it hard to evaluate your role or your value when you never give us anything to work with. Who do you trust? Yourself. That is cool, but it doesn't give other people much to look at when trying to figure out your M.O.

You don't "make up" evidence - OK, so how do you reach your conclusions on who to vote for if you aren't trying to interpret people's actions? Whimsy at the end of the day? Vote for people who question you? For better or for worse, when I'm playing as a "good guy" I do try to trap the opponent and help my friends with my posts.

It is a little frustrating that as a good guy people can't immediately pick up on it, but I take some responsibility for that as well because I must not be doing a good enough job of putting the bad guys in jeopardy. The guys who are pushing the bad guys hard will, over time, end up as night kills or trusted by the good guys. Oversimplification? Yes, but I personally prefer taking that philosophy to one of sitting back and letting the game dictate to me.

I'll now step off the soapbox and apologize if that came across as overly preachy.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

But even so, nothing has really come of that, and I still see you herding everyone away from you. That's totally fine, but I just wish people were more aware of the fact.

Here's a question that might make you sound at least a little bit human:

Why should you be trusted and not voted for?

He's actually trying to get people off of ANXIETY today.

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, I should be trusted because I revealed that I was the bodyguard at the start of Day 3 (after indicating that I had a role late in Day 2). No one has emerged over 4+ days of real-time to contest this claim.

I should also be trusted if you trust Cronin's role reveal, at the very least to not be a henchman. If you believe this, then that fact coupled with the uncontested 'bodyguard' reveal should lead someone to conclude that I'm considerably less likely than the "average" candidate among the remaining elevel players to be a human.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Schmidty, I should be trusted because I revealed that I was the bodyguard at the start of Day 3 (after indicating that I had a role late in Day 2). No one has emerged over 4+ days of real-time to contest this claim.

I should also be trusted if you trust Cronin's role reveal, at the very least to not be a henchman. If you believe this, then that fact coupled with the uncontested 'bodyguard' reveal should lead someone to conclude that I'm considerably less likely than the "average" candidate among the remaining elevel players to be a human.

I think the first line is the biggest reason why I have trust in hoops at this point. There was a perfect out for someone to try to come and say they were the bodyguard with the Blade event from night 2. The fact that no one has challenged hoops on this is the only thing keeping him off of my distrust lists. I havent really found it pleasing that hoops keeps defending the people on my high-distrust list (Such as Anxiety and Tyrith), but I have to feel if he was bad, SOMEONE would have challenged him as bodyguard by now.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I would ask that you re-read my posts on Tyrith - I don't think that I've been defending him in the least. My vote was camped on him during Day 2 until the end where I had to pull it back. I moved away from him on Day 3 when I believed that Blade/Tyrith were brothers/lovers. I've continued to question why he is still alive when his partner is dead today.

In fact, at this point I'll put my vote out there and see if anything comes of it over the next 8.5 hours. Right now it is a wasted vote, but I believe it is a better vote than Anxiety and I know it is a better vote than me.

VOTE TYRITH

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Schmidty, I should be trusted because I revealed that I was the bodyguard at the start of Day 3 (after indicating that I had a role late in Day 2). No one has emerged over 4+ days of real-time to contest this claim.

I should also be trusted if you trust Cronin's role reveal, at the very least to not be a henchman. If you believe this, then that fact coupled with the uncontested 'bodyguard' reveal should lead someone to conclude that I'm considerably less likely than the "average" candidate among the remaining elevel players to be a human.

Fine. I'll trust you then, GOSH!!

[SirFozzie]

Funny Schmidty, you don't look like Napoleon Dynamite!

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Funny Schmidty, you don't look like Napoleon Dynamite!

No, but if you look at ND upside down, my peepee does.

[Schmidty]

Please disregard the above post. I don't want anyone getting turned on.

[SirFozzie]

VOTE SCHMIDTY

[SirFozzie]

Wait a second, I RUN this game, I'm not playing in it!

UNVOTE SCHMIDTY

Neeever mind!

[hoopsguy]

I think I have to get around to seeing Napoleon Dynamite at some point ...

[Alan T]

I was wondering what the current vote count was, so went back to look them up.

This is what I have currently:

(6) Anxiety - Cronin (922), Alan T (998), Tyrith (1002), Barkeep (1081), Coffee (1085), Lathum (1207)
(2) Hoops - Saldana (1022), Anxiety (1029)
(1) Tyrith - Hoopsguy (1236)

That leaves uhh.. SackAttack and Schmidty as the only two outstanding votes.

So looks like unless people move off of Anxiety for some reason, he's the lynch candidate tonight.

My question now would be lets follow this out from here.

If Anxiety is bad, what are our next steps?
- Is Schmidty someone we should look heavier at? Despite not being on any trust lists, he still seems to be waiting till the last minute to vote, perhaps waiting to see if there is a way to save Anxiety?
- Do we look at hoops closer for trying to move people off of Anxiety?

If Anxiety is good what are our next steps?
- Do we look more at Tyrith now? Ie: Why is he still around?

Other thoughts?

[st.cronin]

I am tempted to move my vote on Tyrith, just to see what happens. I think it's very possible that either Tyrith or Anxiety is bad, and I also think it's likely one of the non-voters is bad.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I was wondering what the current vote count was, so went back to look them up.

This is what I have currently:

(6) Anxiety - Cronin (922), Alan T (998), Tyrith (1002), Barkeep (1081), Coffee (1085), Lathum (1207)
(2) Hoops - Saldana (1022), Anxiety (1029)
(1) Tyrith - Hoopsguy (1236)

That leaves uhh.. SackAttack and Schmidty as the only two outstanding votes.

So looks like unless people move off of Anxiety for some reason, he's the lynch candidate tonight.

My question now would be lets follow this out from here.

If Anxiety is bad, what are our next steps?
- Is Schmidty someone we should look heavier at? Despite not being on any trust lists, he still seems to be waiting till the last minute to vote, perhaps waiting to see if there is a way to save Anxiety?
- Do we look at hoops closer for trying to move people off of Anxiety?

If Anxiety is good what are our next steps?
- Do we look more at Tyrith now? Ie: Why is he still around?

Other thoughts?

After reading 25 pages, I think I have as much information now as I did before taking over for ardent. Eesh.

My first instinct would be Anxiety. On the other hand, I remember the Sith game well. Hoops was frequently under fire, and yet never really drew as much heat as he should have until basically the end of the game. He's one of those guys that everybody keeps being suspicious of, but his posts are always just carefully constructed enough that he never actually gets lynched.

I've seen in the past where he's able to subtly deflect attention from him to someone else, and in every instance I've seen, it's been to a villager.

Without getting into the whole "preconceived notions" bit, I'll just say that based on the level of respect I have for his ability to play, hoops scares me. He could be straight-up legit, or a human in disguise here, and I'm not sure I'd ever be certain which it is until he's either nuked by the humans or lynched by us wolves.

I can't do anything about the former, but I can

vote hoopsguy.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am tempted to move my vote on Tyrith, just to see what happens. I think it's very possible that either Tyrith or Anxiety is bad, and I also think it's likely one of the non-voters is bad.

I'm not sure what that would accomplish other than putting hoops into more danger. It would be 5-3-2 at that point, meaning 1 flip away from a tie between Anxiety and Hoops.

While I would be less caring if the vote went from Anxiety to Tyrith, I'm not sure I would want to lose hoops instead of the other two here. From what it sounds like there is a core group of 4-6 of us who feel strongly about both Anxiety and Tyrith right now. Not sure we want to split that voting group into half right now

[hoopsguy]

E tu, Sith Master?

If enough people don't trust my defense in Post #1234 then we'll collectively make a mistake again today.

I really don't think I'm all that cryptic as a good guy, but it is obvious that I'm in the minority opinion on this.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

E tu, Sith Master?

If enough people don't trust my defense in Post #1234 then we'll collectively make a mistake again today.

I really don't think I'm all that cryptic as a good guy, but it is obvious that I'm in the minority opinion on this.

Assuming you're telling the truth, which, at this point, I think you are.

You're a bodyguard in a Fozzie game. You were fucked from the moment you signed up.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'm not sure what that would accomplish other than putting hoops into more danger. It would be 5-3-2 at that point, meaning 1 flip away from a tie between Anxiety and Hoops.

While I would be less caring if the vote went from Anxiety to Tyrith, I'm not sure I would want to lose hoops instead of the other two here. From what it sounds like there is a core group of 4-6 of us who feel strongly about both Anxiety and Tyrith right now. Not sure we want to split that voting group into half right now

With Sack voting the way he did, I agree. His vote makes me think we may be looking at Anxiety-Tyrith-Sack as our bad guys.