2011-12 MLB Offseason Thread: Tigers are really stupid

[lungs]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Amen! Nice to see him out of the NL and especially off the Brewers roster.

Likewise with Pujols

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by stevew

Well, duh. He would lose ratings and fall apart in 2 seasons obviously.

He's got a reasonable chance of doing that anyway.

I looked at the post-27 careers of his top 10 comps via baseball-reference. If he matches the best age 28, age 29, age 30, etc, season of the ten comps, his WAR stats look like this:

7.3 7.1 5.1 4.7 3.6 5.9 5.6 1.4 1.9

for a total of 42.6 WAR.

But here's the thing. If he matches the 3rd best of those ten seasons each year, we get the following curve:

6.5 5.5 4.0 3.2 2.2 2.0 1.0 0.9 1.0

...and I should note that those figures include extrapolating decent seasons for Mark Teixeira at ages 32 and beyond, for a total of 26.3 WAR. We're up to $8 million per win for an 80th percentile forecast.

Plotting against the average of the ten B-R comps nets him $12 million per win, with a reasonable chance of being out of the league by age 34. 130/6 should have been the defensible optimistic play, and nobody should have gone above $15 million per year for a nine or ten year deal. Brutal.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by lungs

Likewise with Pujols

Touche!

[JPhillips]

VOTTO BITCHES!!!

[Butter]

Let's just go ahead and get all of the good players out of the NL. Except the Reds. They can stay.

Kthx.

[Ksyrup]

I think it's a hugely risky financial move that doesn't have a chance to pay off. But I'm also of the mind that Illitch doesn't care. All this talk of payroll and relative value of win shares and such only matters if it restricts you down the line. And I'm not convinced it will. Illitch is 82. I think he's content to spend a lot of money to try to win before he dies. If that means eating a ton of sunk costs, and maybe pulling the plug for a season or two when it looks like - due to injuries, poor performance, exiting FAs, whatever - they won't be competitive, then that's what they will do. But I think the philosophy is "we're in the AL Central, we have the chance to be the Yankees of the midwest, so let's go for it." If the guy's willing to outspend revenues to win, I don't think this is as crazy a signing as it would be if you had a true bottom line.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

He's got a reasonable chance of doing that anyway.

I looked at the post-27 careers of his top 10 comps via baseball-reference. If he matches the best age 28, age 29, age 30, etc, season of the ten comps, his WAR stats look like this:

7.3 7.1 5.1 4.7 3.6 5.9 5.6 1.4 1.9

for a total of 42.6 WAR.

But here's the thing. If he matches the 3rd best of those ten seasons each year, we get the following curve:

6.5 5.5 4.0 3.2 2.2 2.0 1.0 0.9 1.0

...and I should note that those figures include extrapolating decent seasons for Mark Teixeira at ages 32 and beyond, for a total of 26.3 WAR. We're up to $8 million per win for an 80th percentile forecast.

Plotting against the average of the ten B-R comps nets him $12 million per win, with a reasonable chance of being out of the league by age 34. 130/6 should have been the defensible optimistic play, and nobody should have gone above $15 million per year for a nine or ten year deal. Brutal.

I finally understand every word, abbreviation, and figure in these types of posts!

[Butter]

If anyone has MLB Network and likes game shows, they just started up a show called "Baseball IQ", which is essentially an all MLB trivia show. It is pretty fun, and I like the way they set up the rounds to be like innings... although the final round is such that it counts for a little too much.

I liked it quite a bit. I think they are airing it some weeknights from 9-10 PM, with other showings as needed to fill in the offseason programming hours.

[Ksyrup]

Cool, thanks, I'll check that out. I have to admit, I watch that channel far less than I thought I would.

[Butter]

Your enjoyment for the show will probably directly correlate with your like/dislike of Matt Vasgersian. I like him, so I enjoyed the show. The questions were a good balance of hard but not ridiculous. But the players are all front office baseball people, so they have the personality of snails.

[Ksyrup]

I don't mind him. Strange casting for contestants, though.

[stevew]

apparently the Pirates geeky chick beat reporter for MLB.com is leaving for the Cardinals. I guess everyone can't wait to get out of Pittsburgh.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by stevew

apparently the Pirates geeky chick beat reporter for MLB.com is leaving for the Cardinals. I guess everyone can't wait to get out of Pittsburgh.

To Honolulu_Blue's earlier point in this thread, the Pirates have players who can't spell their own last names, and they had a beat reporter who couldn't spell her own first name. Jenifer? Seriously?

Jenifer?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

To Honolulu_Blue's earlier point in this thread, the Pirates have players who can't spell their own last names, and they had a beat reporter who couldn't spell her own first name. Jenifer? Seriously?

Jenifer?

What the fuck is going on there? Why kan theigh not spel wel?

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Originally Posted by rowech

Does Boras have an alibi for where he was when Victor Martinez was hurt?

Of course he does. Don't be silly. His alibi was tight for that day a full week before the injury occurred. He made sure of that. I believe he was helping nuns deliver coffee to the police or something...

[Ksyrup]

Even before Martinez got hurt, I wasn't all that sold on the Tigers lineup. As much as I love Avila, I think he's due for a significant regression. Same with Peralta, and maybe even Boesch. I think the optimism came mostly from what the rest of the division didn't do this off-season. Fielder will help, and we probably should win the division, but I don't think this team was going to repeat last year's 95 wins, and I don't think Fielder gets them much closer to it, either.

[DeToxRox]

Tigers apparently are still going to make a run at Cespedes. In five years we may see the greatest fire sale in MLB history.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

it's just nuts. i know there have been arms races before but has there been an offseason as reckless as this?

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Tigers apparently are still going to make a run at Cespedes. In five years we may see the greatest fire sale in MLB history.

and the tigers will probably only have one or two trips to the world series to show for it

abloo bloo bloo

[Ksyrup]

What position does he play?

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

What position does he play?

Rover? This is church league softball, correct?

[DeToxRox]

At least it looks like Cabrera is taking care of himself this offseason so he could potentially not be biggest liability in the league at 3B



That's him with Hanley

[Ksyrup]

I hope they just came from 3B practice.

[Logan]

Hard to tell in the picture, what designer is Hanley wearing?

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Tigers apparently are still going to make a run at Cespedes. In five years we may see the greatest fire sale in MLB history.

This. And heaven help us if Ilitch dies anytime soon.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

In five years we may see the greatest fire sale in MLB history.

I disagree.

Fielder is the only one who is on the books after 2015.

4 years - Cabrera
3 years - Verlander and VMart

I think that's it.

My point is... the fire sale could be sooner.

[Ksyrup]

Update on the Marlins HR thingy:

The Marlins' Home-Run Feature: A Sense Of Scale - Baseball Nation

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

To Honolulu_Blue's earlier point in this thread, the Pirates have players who can't spell their own last names, and they had a beat reporter who couldn't spell her own first name. Jenifer? Seriously?

Jenifer?

Blonde?

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Aren't they moving to the AL West?

Yeah, my bad

SI

[MizzouRah]

Oswalt a Cardinal?

Source -- Roy Oswalt likely to sign with St. Louis Cardinals "soon" - ESPN Boston

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Update on the Marlins HR thingy:

The Marlins' Home-Run Feature: A Sense Of Scale - Baseball Nation

Awesome!!! Can't wait.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Oswalt a Cardinal?

Source -- Roy Oswalt likely to sign with St. Louis Cardinals "soon" - ESPN Boston

Good pickup. The NL Central is going to be fun this year.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Good pickup. The NL Central is going to be fun this year.

It's not official yet.. but I'm definitely surprised. I think the Cardinals have done well this offseason.. all made possible by Pujols leaving.

The central will be fun for sure this season.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Update on the Marlins HR thingy:

The Marlins' Home-Run Feature: A Sense Of Scale - Baseball Nation

Was going through the comments and found this gem.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Oswalt a Cardinal?

Source -- Roy Oswalt likely to sign with St. Louis Cardinals "soon" - ESPN Boston

I wasn't a believer in Oswalt as the answer, but man the Red Sox are really going to fucking suck this year.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Oswalt a Cardinal?

Source -- Roy Oswalt likely to sign with St. Louis Cardinals "soon" - ESPN Boston

Damn. I was hoping Oswalt would be open to pitching a year in Safeco to boost his numbers and try to get a bigger deal next year...

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

If anyone has MLB Network and likes game shows, they just started up a show called "Baseball IQ", which is essentially an all MLB trivia show. It is pretty fun, and I like the way they set up the rounds to be like innings... although the final round is such that it counts for a little too much.

I liked it quite a bit. I think they are airing it some weeknights from 9-10 PM, with other showings as needed to fill in the offseason programming hours.

I started recording these and watched the first one last night. Pretty good. And you're right, they probably could have found more typical game show contestants to spice it up a bit.

The last round is actually pretty funny - it's basically Name That Tune's "I can name that tune in X notes" game mechanic. And I swear that when it was up to the Braves guy to decide if he wanted to match the other guy's number of correct answers, he started to say something along the lines of the "name your tune" thing before he caught himself and remembered what game he was playing.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I wasn't a believer in Oswalt as the answer, but man the Red Sox are really going to fucking suck this year.

Just like Belichick's draft picks, right?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Just like Belichick's draft picks, right?

Red Sox SS's = Belichick's DB's

[sterlingice]

We can't all have that magnificent abomination in Miami, but this is kindof neat:
Solar panels to help power Kauffman Stadium | royals.com: News

SI

[DeToxRox]

Not good news for Josh Hamilton

Source: Josh Hamilton has relapse


By Richard Durrett
ESPNDallas.com
Archive

Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton, who has battled drug and alcohol addictions, had a relapse with alcohol this week, according to a source.

The Rangers said through a team spokesman that they are "aware of a situation but have no further comment at this time."

The news was first reported by The Dallas Morning News earlier Thursday.

It's unclear exactly what happened, but Hamilton has attempted to stay sober since an incident in a Tempe, Ariz., bar a little more than three years ago.

Then, he was photographed drinking with several women and those pictures went viral about seven months later. Hamilton spoke to the media about it at that time and apologized, saying: "I hate that this happened."

When that occurred, Hamilton immediately called the Rangers and MLB. He passed a drug test shortly thereafter and went through league-sanctioned counseling. Hamilton also made sure his support system was fully in place, including having Johnny Narron, his "accountability partner" at the time, with him at spring training and through the rest of the season.

Right now, Hamilton and the Rangers are still in the process of finding a new "accountability partner" after Narron took the job as the Milwaukee Brewers hitting coach. Hamilton's father-in-law, Michael Dean Chadwick, was planning on taking over that role for Narron but didn't want to leave his teenage daughter as she gets closer to finishing high school.

The Rangers have expressed an interest in signing Hamilton to a long-term extension, though both sides agreed that if a deal wasn't in place by the time spring training starts later this month that they wouldn't talk during the season to avoid any kind of distraction.

The 2010 AL MVP has worked to avoid even the smell of alcohol, something his teammates have respected. They have even catered their postseason celebrations for him (and former teammate C.J. Wilson who also didn't want to be around alcohol) by having Ginger Ale and water showers before breaking out the champagne after winning a playoff series.

Hamilton said in Aug. 2009, when discussing his last relapse, that it was the first drink he'd had since Oct. 6, 2005, when he vowed to stay sober. Drugs and alcohol helped delay Hamilton's track to the big leagues and despite being the No. 1 overall draft pick in 1999 by the Tampa Bay Rays, he didn't make his major league debut until 2007 with the Cincinnati Reds.

The Rangers traded for Hamilton prior to the 2008 season, sending right-handed pitcher Edinson Volquez and left-handed pitcher Danny Ray Herrera to the Reds for the outfielder.

[DeToxRox]

Losing CJ Wilson is going to be huge for Hamilton. Wilson is a HUGE proponent of Straight Edge was clearly close with Hamilton. I wonder how it ends up going now for him.

[DeToxRox]

Morosi just tweeted this:

Jay Gormley of local CBS affiliate reports that employees at Sherlock's in Dallas say Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler were at bar.

[cartman]

They also don't have a team chaperone for him right now ever since Jerry Narron left to be on the Milwaukee staff. They thought his father-in-law was going to move into that position, but he decided he couldn't commit to the traveling required during the season.

[DeToxRox]

I really don't get what Kinsler is doing here. You know the guy is an addict, so why even be in that situation with him? If Hamilton wants to drink or do drugs, he will. Don't fucking go enabling the guy though.

[JPhillips]

It sucks when a guy can't escape his demons. God bless him.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It sucks when a guy can't escape his demons. God bless him.

Indeed.. god bless him, it's a tough addiction and I hope he stays clean.

[DeToxRox]

Gerry Fraley reporting Ian Kinsler was at the bar in an apparent attempt to persuade Josh Hamilton to return home.

That is much, much better to hear.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

I really don't get what Kinsler is doing here. You know the guy is an addict, so why even be in that situation with him? If Hamilton wants to drink or do drugs, he will. Don't fucking go enabling the guy though.

I'm guessing Josh hasn't been squeaky clean on alcohol this whole time. He puts on a show for the cameras but probably has a flask in his locker.

Hence, teammates are willing to drink with him. His problem was with cocaine/heroin, no? Drinking may not be good for him, but it's not as if he is relapsing on the drugs that sent him spiraling out of control. But a person with addiction problems is more prone to all addictions and alcohol could easily be the next vice that causes him problems.

Obviously not a good thing, but probably not as bad as the media will make it out to be.

edit: saw the Kinsler stuff not being bad.... If his problem includes alcohol he needs to get the hell back in treatment too. Hard for me as an outsider to judge,

[CraigSca]

A real shame. None of us is infallible. Here's hoping he gets back on track and that this doesn't effect his career.