LXXVII Spawn III: Game Over (See Post 4507)

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by saldana

i am really getting tired of PackerFan trying to use his wounded status as a reason why he shouldnt have to do anything...lots of people got wounded last night and none of them whined about it all day

i was probably gonna do this anyway, but the constant excuses about status pushed me over the limit
vote packerfanatic

you think a spawn would make such a lame ass excuse?

[saldana]

also, i can guard the slave pens overnight...i didnt last night because the security system was supposed to be working.

phasers welcome

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by saldana

i am really getting tired of PackerFan trying to use his wounded status as a reason why he shouldnt have to do anything...lots of people got wounded last night and none of them whined about it all day

i was probably gonna do this anyway, but the constant excuses about status pushed me over the limit
vote packerfanatic

I wasn't whining or making excuses - simply pointing it out to people. Especially since I have very limited things I can do right now, I would rather be put to do something that isn't of dire importance (like, rounding up slaves and possibly dying, lol) I would rather a mission or a task go forward with a higher probability of success.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

you think a spawn would make such a lame ass excuse?

lol

[hoopsguy]

Also, since I'm in the process of asking a number of questions that seem to have already been covered - do we need each and every engineer to take actions both today and tonight to achieve some goal? Is that the reason that people are shying away from voting for an engineer?

I'll bust out math that suggests at least one of our four likely started as a spawn if I have to ...

[PackerFanatic]

Also, for those of you using the "he went outside" tact - there are people that went out today that are now twice as likely to be infected from the outside than me, because they went both days. I will try and dig up that list.

[Danny]

I'm catching up. I sent in an order this morning about the slave pen, but it may have been fixed already.

BK, do I still have my day repair left?

Also, any other immediate updates I need while catching up?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I wasn't whining or making excuses - simply pointing it out to people. Especially since I have very limited things I can do right now, I would rather be put to do something that isn't of dire importance (like, rounding up slaves and possibly dying, lol) I would rather a mission or a task go forward with a higher probability of success.

Packer, we have no more ability to do away teams today really, so nothing else is going to really come up I think for you.

Will you voluntarily go to try to round up slaves now and put your order in to Barkeep? (Probably want to make it clear you want to go to do so once Schmidty has completed, which I assume he has).

If you do it voluntarily it would probably buy you some good will (at least from me).. if you choose to not do it voluntarily, I could just order you to do it

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, since I'm in the process of asking a number of questions that seem to have already been covered - do we need each and every engineer to take actions both today and tonight to achieve some goal? Is that the reason that people are shying away from voting for an engineer?

I'll bust out math that suggests at least one of our four likely started as a spawn if I have to ...

Yes, pretty much we have more stuff that needs to be repaired soon, then people to do so.

[hoopsguy]

Olie - whenever you are around, I think phasers should go to you and Saldana for starters based on your N1 report. I'll have suggestion #3 in a sec.

[PackerFanatic]

Well I think me and no lynch are about neck and neck right now, so I guess whatever I can do to try and get some votes off me - or die in the process and mix things up a bit

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, since I'm in the process of asking a number of questions that seem to have already been covered - do we need each and every engineer to take actions both today and tonight to achieve some goal? Is that the reason that people are shying away from voting for an engineer?

I'll bust out math that suggests at least one of our four likely started as a spawn if I have to ...

Hoops, despite being one of the four engineers, I would like to see this math because I assumed that we started with no bad guys or maybe just one so I'm curious about how this math works.

I think people are shying away from us because we have to get the cargo hold fixed and then the engines just to have a shot.

[Marc Vaughan]

Just to join the stampede (and for the novel experience of watching someone lynched rather than being the lynchee ) ...

vote packerfanatic

[hoopsguy]

RendeR, I think I recall you saying you stayed awake last night? To do what?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, since I'm in the process of asking a number of questions that seem to have already been covered - do we need each and every engineer to take actions both today and tonight to achieve some goal? Is that the reason that people are shying away from voting for an engineer?

I'll bust out math that suggests at least one of our four likely started as a spawn if I have to ...

For each person who isn't spawn to do the math everyone else had a 3/22 shot at starting spawn. So it's 12/22 that an engineer started as spawn, 55%.

I don't know if I'd call that likely.

But yes, we do need the engineers at full bore, or risk dehydration I believe.

The additional thought is, if something doesn't get done that should have, someone faked ergo we have a better lead on a Spawn.

[PackerFanatic]

Order sent to search for slaves. No guts no glory, right?

If I see a slave, I will stab him with my ruler...I really hope it is the one that attacked me last night!

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Order sent to search for slaves. No guts no glory, right?

If I see a slave, I will stab him with my ruler...I really hope it is the one that attacked me last night!

I would use the compass instead of the ruler. It is sharper!

[PurdueBrad]

Danny, I believe you still have your day action so you'll need to be working on the cargo hold.

[Barkeep49]

Yes Danny you still have your repair action.

[PurdueBrad]

Danny, there was some discusion earlier about your robot. Was this an ability you started with or something that came via PM? Also, do you have any indication on what the robot can do? How long will it take to complete the robot?

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I would use the compass instead of the ruler. It is sharper!

Good point...I do have a pocket protector too, which would likely mean I have a pen or two.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

For each person who isn't spawn to do the math everyone else had a 3/22 shot at starting spawn. So it's 12/22 that an engineer started as spawn, 55%.

I don't know if I'd call that likely.

But yes, we do need the engineers at full bore, or risk dehydration I believe.

The additional thought is, if something doesn't get done that should have, someone faked ergo we have a better lead on a Spawn.

I haven't been following the engineers very well, but they're pretty spread out on who's doing what, right? So if something didn't get finished, we can narrow down who faked to 2-3 people, not just "an engineer" -- right?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Also, for those of you using the "he went outside" tact - there are people that went out today that are now twice as likely to be infected from the outside than me, because they went both days. I will try and dig up that list.

That's a short list. Telle is the only one who has been on 2 missions.

[Barkeep49]

PackerFanatic is seen steeling himself mentally for his upcoming slave herding mission. It is quite clear that he's happy to have Schmidty go first.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I haven't been following the engineers very well, but they're pretty spread out on who's doing what, right? So if something didn't get finished, we can narrow down who faked to 2-3 people, not just "an engineer" -- right?

Yes, I believe so.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

Just to join the stampede (and for the novel experience of watching someone lynched rather than being the lynchee ) ...

vote packerfanatic

whoa! first off your not allowed to edit your posts. 2nd that jump on the bandwagon vote raised my wolf detector

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by KWhit

That's a short list. Telle is the only one who has been on 2 missions.

...touche.

[KWhit]

Away missions:

Day 1:
Telle, PackerFanatic, Claphamsa, and 2 slaves - exploring (very successful)
Saldana & Slaves - mining (16 units)

Day 2:
Telle, LoneStarGirl, Chubby, Marc Vaughn, and a slave - exploring (pretty successful - slave died)

[jeheinz72]

Correct Pass, I think we have it set up to where we're two and two. So if something doesn't get done, it's 50/50 who did it.

[jeheinz72]

er, didn't do it, I should say.

[hoopsguy]

23 starting players, 4 engineers - I think you have to assume a minimum of 3 spawn starting based on the D1 post.

If 3 starting spawn then:
Spawn #1 = 19/23 isn't an engineer
Spawn #2 = 18/22 isn't an engineer
Spawn #3 = 17/21 isn't an engineer

= 5814/10626 = 54.71% isn't an engineer

If 4 starting spawn then:
Spawn #1 = 19/23 isn't an engineer
Spawn #2 = 18/22 isn't an engineer
Spawn #3 = 17/21 isn't an engineer
Spawn 34 = 16/20 isn't an engineer

= 93024/212520 = 43.77% isn't an engineer

The numbers actually came out a little better for "no spawn" engineer than I initially thought. Of course, this is straight random.org and doesn't factor in information that we "know".

Part #2 coming up that tilts these a little bit.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

whoa! first off your not allowed to edit your posts. 2nd that jump on the bandwagon vote raised my wolf detector

I've always thought we're a bit Puritanical about the post editing. Considering the edit went in the same minute he posted I feel it's no biggie, though I know most people disagree with me on that.

[PackerFanatic]

I forgot sal didn't go out today. Well forget that argument against me then, heh.

[Alan T]

Soo.. Barkeep..

earlier today when people did the slave herding mission, the slaves ended up pretty instantly in the pen (where we could use them for away missions)..

I gather that you aren't going to tell us if the slaves are all in the pen or not until tonight's write up, but at least can we assume that all 6 slave herding missions done today have been completed (faked or otherwise)?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Soo.. Barkeep..

earlier today when people did the slave herding mission, the slaves ended up pretty instantly in the pen (where we could use them for away missions)..

I gather that you aren't going to tell us if the slaves are all in the pen or not until tonight's write up, but at least can we assume that all 6 slave herding missions done today have been completed (faked or otherwise)?

Yes.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I don't have a strong opinion on this either way, although I'd rather you not be the one to do cleanup duty. I feel there is also an argument to be made to just risk it and see what happens with the people already doing cleanup - as 2 loose slaves shouldn't do too much damage and if someone did fake their duty, it will put a big spotlight on where to look for the first Spawn.

I agree with this - I'd rather not "cover up" the fake working at the cost of 2 slaves. One of us can round them up first thing this evening if need be. Lord knows we'll need to do something overnight since there are only 5 beds.

[Alan T]

Danny, have you put in your order to work on the cargo hold?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by mccollins

I agree with this - I'd rather not "cover up" the fake working at the cost of 2 slaves. One of us can round them up first thing this evening if need be. Lord knows we'll need to do something overnight since there are only 5 beds.

This evening will be too late if they have the ability to damage things every turn. THey could damage the security HQ before tonight thus making it useless again for tonight regardless if we rounded them up tonight or not..

We really need the slaves all rounded up today during the day cycle.

[The Jackal]

damn i have a lot of pages to catch up on, doing so

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Danny, there was some discusion earlier about your robot. Was this an ability you started with or something that came via PM? Also, do you have any indication on what the robot can do? How long will it take to complete the robot?

The robot is not an official game ability. That was me trying to add some humor to the game as we go along. I'm going to send in orders to repair the cargo hold while I finish catching up with everything.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

whoa! first off your not allowed to edit your posts. 2nd that jump on the bandwagon vote raised my wolf detector

Sorry new to all this - only edited it to make the vote bold ...

(see why I got lynched last game - 'tis easy to accidentally encourage people to bite at air in this game)

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

23 starting players, 4 engineers - I think you have to assume a minimum of 3 spawn starting based on the D1 post.

If 3 starting spawn then:
Spawn #1 = 19/23 isn't an engineer
Spawn #2 = 18/22 isn't an engineer
Spawn #3 = 17/21 isn't an engineer

= 5814/10626 = 54.71% isn't an engineer

If 4 starting spawn then:
Spawn #1 = 19/23 isn't an engineer
Spawn #2 = 18/22 isn't an engineer
Spawn #3 = 17/21 isn't an engineer
Spawn 34 = 16/20 isn't an engineer

= 93024/212520 = 43.77% isn't an engineer

The numbers actually came out a little better for "no spawn" engineer than I initially thought. Of course, this is straight random.org and doesn't factor in information that we "know".

Part #2 coming up that tilts these a little bit.

This is flat out wrong. There were a maximum of 3 original spawn. I think it's likely there were just 2.


BK's original post when we landed (#93):

But if the fear of turbulence isn’t enough it’s what happens as the emergency lights start to come on that really frightens people: there are sightings of Spawnlings. Not at all once, so people aren’t sure if there is more than one (though through later reexamination it becomes clear that there couldn’t be more than 3), but there was definitely a Spawnling aboard. And then there wasn’t.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Alan T

This evening will be too late if they have the ability to damage things every turn. THey could damage the security HQ before tonight thus making it useless again for tonight regardless if we rounded them up tonight or not..

We really need the slaves all rounded up today during the day cycle.

Well, hopefully they are now, with Schmidty looking for the remaining ones.

[PackerFanatic]

Schmidty and I*

[Marc Vaughan]

PS - Jumped on the bandwagon mainly because it was passing and I got the impression that humming and haaing without lynching people for too long was simply suicide in these games generally ...

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Danny

The robot is not an official game ability. That was me trying to add some humor to the game as we go along. I'm going to send in orders to repair the cargo hold while I finish catching up with everything.

I was wondering if the robot's name was V-ger or something like that, but like I said before the thing that really was odd to me was that no one else really mentioned it.. so I had to bring it up at least

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Because if all of the security personal did their duty, Schmidty will have cleaned up the last of the slaves at little risk to the rest of the crew..

So sending packerfanatic out to round up slaves won't hurt him at all since there will be no slaves to round up.

Only if one of the security personal faked their action does Packer run into slaves.. so basically we're giving him value here to find us out that key piece of information if one of our security guards are suspect

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Minimizes the risk of him getting killed because there's a good chance there'd be no one for him to fetch.

Y'all are so sneaky smart

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Danny

The robot is not an official game ability. That was me trying to add some humor to the game as we go along. I'm going to send in orders to repair the cargo hold while I finish catching up with everything.

Ha, and here I was all envious that I didn't get to be a cool engineer who built robots.

[hoopsguy]

OK, so now I put in the fact that I know I'm not a Spawn. It is important to note that every person who is not a Spawn or an Engineer can make these same calculations ... it is not specific to "Hoospguy"

3 starting spawn = 18/22 * 17/21 * 16/20 = 4896/9240 = 52.98% not spawn = about 2% shift

4 starting spawn = 18/22 * 17/21 * 16/20 * 15/19 = 73440/175560 = 41.83 not spawn = about 2% shift

So now do you trust our doctor did not start as a spawn? If so, he has cleared two people of not being starting spawn (KWhit and Alan). This is where you really see the numbers move.

3 starting spawn = 15/19 * 14/18 * 13/17 = 2730/5814 = 46.95% not spawn = 6% change

4 starting spawn = 15/19 * 14/18 * 13/17 * 12/16 = 32760/93024 = 35.21 not spawn = 6% change


The same arguments hold true for any block of four players you want to pick - it isn't just engineers.

[KWhit]

I have to run. I'll try to check back in before deadline, but for now:

Vote No Lynch