Invasion of Ukraine

[Edward64]

If true, pretty brutal video of a sniper taking out 4 of 5 Russians

https://twitter.com/tomaburque/statu...50438505492480

#Ukraine sniper with a thermal sight takes out 3 of 5 #Russian soldiers

Another brutal video. Drone dropping a grenade (?) on some Russians. Unlike most other videos, this one looks like hi-def. Man, if I was a soldier in the front line, you wouldn't catch me not in a building or under some heavy foliage.

Russian soldiers were struck by a deadly Ukrainian drone as they were hiding in an abandoned warehouse. : RussiaUkraineWar2022


EDIT: Also some unconfirmed reports in Reddit that Ukraine has crossed the river. No real convincing evidence (yet) but would be wild if true

[albionmoonlight]

Reports that two Russian missiles landed in Poland.

My sense is that NATO does not want to start engaging Russia itself. But that's apparently on the table now.

[sterlingice]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63638859
Putin with another missile tantrum

Lots of noise on social media that a couple of Russian rockets missed Ukraine and hit a farm in Poland, killing 2. There's some mention of article 5, but I'm pretty sure the world is content to look the other way and pretend Russia just screwed up badly when shooting. The only English story I can find about this is on right wing UK tabloid Express Weekly so they're not getting a link here. But it's out there on the internet if you want to find it.


SI

[GrantDawg]

I suspect increased sanctions (though I don't know what they have to increase) and even more weapons sales to UA. Maybe a very strongly worded threat.

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[Brian Swartz]

I think it depends on if Russia follows it up with anything else. If they don't, I don't think over-reacting to it is good. But at the very least we need to send the message that it better be the very last such 'mistake'.

[GrantDawg]

DOD spokesmen would not confirm the report. He did make clear the US is dedicated to defend every inch of NATO land.

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[GrantDawg]

Early and possible false pictures suggest it was two Ukrainian SAMs that went off course. That actually might be a best case scenario.
Edit: And the post was deleted.
Edit edit: and it is back up. Couple of others reporting it as well, but no real confirmation. It would explain the lack of any kind of official confirmation from the US or Poland.

[bhlloy]

BBC has also gone with a much more generic headline in the last 20 minutes or so rather than the one accusing Russia, I'm guessing the chatter they are hearing in intelligence circles is going to be friendly fire when all is said and done.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

BBC has also gone with a much more generic headline in the last 20 minutes or so rather than the one accusing Russia, I'm guessing the chatter they are hearing in intelligence circles is going to be friendly fire when all is said and done.

Whether it is or isn't, it's the story that keeps us out of World War III (for now)

SI

[Edward64]

Reports are saying missiles (plural). If true, I'd think its more a deliberate act or totally screwed up targeting system.

There were some pics of the missiles. Assume we'll know pretty quickly.

[NobodyHere]

*Conspiracy hat on*

Could the Russians have captured some Ukranian missiles and fired them at Poland?

Would make a great false flag move if you weren't caught.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Whether it is or isn't, it's the story that keeps us out of World War III (for now)

SI

Yup.

[Edward64]

Just reported. I guess it's official that Poland believes it was Russian. It said missile vs missiles.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...c6b134e695dd1f

Poland's foreign ministry: "Russian-made missile" fell on the village of Przewodów

[GrantDawg]

But then President of Poland just said they don't know the source of the missile. They believe it "most likely" Rusdian made.

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[Edward64]

Okay, nvm.

Wait for the US government source to tell us.

[Coffee Warlord]

Moment of truth for coming up, if they're Russian missiles fired by Russian military. Poland won't let that go.

Question becomes, "How serious are you, Vlad, about wanting war with NATO? Because this is how you get war with NATO."

[Groundhog]

With the amount of Russian equipment Ukraine has seized, doesn't necessarily point to Russia, however the overall incompetence of the Russian military is what would make me lean towards believing it was most likely Russia. I don't see all out war aka article 5 stemming from it.

[GrantDawg]

No, I stand by what I said earlier. Escalation of military equipment to UA, further sanctions, abd I could see possibly more troops moved further forward in NATO areas.

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

No, I stand by what I said earlier. Escalation of military equipment to UA, further sanctions, abd I could see possibly more troops moved further forward in NATO areas.

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I agree.

I can also possibly see anti-missile/no-fly zone for X miles into Ukrainian borders. Give NATO to test out those weapon systems too.

[GrantDawg]

Biden said the missile was not fired from Russia. That doesn't rule out it was fired by Russians, but it would have been from Ukraine or possibly Belarus.

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[Edward64]

Hopefully Belarus. Odds are that Poland can take them out by themselves

[Coffee Warlord]

On a lighter note ... c'mon Poland, demand Kaliningrad be released as an independent state, and bring back Prussia!

[GrantDawg]

WW3 averted. Carry on with your business.

BREAKING: Poland's president says the missile blast that killed two near the Ukrainian border appears to be an "unfortunate accident," not an "intentional attack." https://t.co/7DcHflKqpw

— The Associated Press (@AP) November 16, 2022

[GrantDawg]

It does look like the initial reports that it was a UA S-300 SAM's was correct.

[Edward64]

WW3 averted.

[Edward64]

I'm amazed at the science & technology that makes this happen.

Nice footage of a Russian cruise missile getting intercepted by a Ukrainian airdefense missile. : ukraine

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

On a lighter note ... c'mon Poland, demand Kaliningrad be released as an independent state, and bring back Prussia!

Was in Lithuania earlier this year and went near Kaliningrad (the Oblast, not the city). Talked to the folks we were with. Kaliningrad has been a political problem for a while and will continue to be so. It's basically a giant military base and, for all intents and purposes, should be a part of Poland or Lithuania. However, no one wants it if there's a giant Russian population on it - the other Baltic states (Estonia and Latvia) have struggled more than Lithuania with their politics because both were "Russified" in the 70s and 80s so they have about 20% ethnic Russian populations and that voting bloc can cause real issues if you have a large neighbor to the east that likes to subvert elections.

SI

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

It's basically a giant military base and, for all intents and purposes, should be a part of Poland or Lithuania.

You shut your dirty mouth with that kinda talk.

It should be an independent Prussia, or returned to Germany. I've played too much EU4 -> HOI to allow anything less.

[Izulde]

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...YhENX73coqAaAk

Since one can consider the fight over Ukraine to be in some ways an event that factors into Chinese decision making re: Taiwan, figured I'd drop this here. Excellent longform article that provides context and analysis over that situation

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Izulde

A Dangerous Game Over Taiwan | The New Yorker

Since one can consider the fight over Ukraine to be in some ways an event that factors into Chinese decision making re: Taiwan, figured I'd drop this here. Excellent longform article that provides context and analysis over that situation

Pretty worrisome article. Taiwan is obviously strategically important for our semi-conductors but may be time to start diversifying and helping other countries get into the business (e.g. I know a lot of PC motherboard chips come from Malaysia).

Have to visit Taiwan soon. Remember an Andrew Zimmern episode where he ate stinky tofu in the streets, and want to try that.

I’d expected an embattled nation girding for a fight, but Taiwan seemed too caught up in the stresses and entertainments of prosperous modern life to think much about the enemy next door. In everyday conversation, the China question rarely came up. There were few signs of national preparation: military conscription is mandatory for adult men but lasts only four months. The government is considering adopting a policy that would allow it to mobilize its civilian population, but so far has done nothing. According to American and former Taiwanese officials, Taiwan’s defense posture is guided by a strategy that was devised in the nineteen-eighties, when the Chinese military was weak.

One day, I sat with Liao Chung Lun, a twenty-four-year-old graduate of National Chung Hsing University, where he studied environmental engineering. Liao had just completed his mandatory military training, which he described as something similar to summer camp. During the first month, he said, he and other recruits did pushups, a bit of running, and rudimentary combat drills, like thrusting a bayonet. A handful of times, he fired a gun. Liao told me that the course wasn’t especially rigorous. “Nobody fails out,” he said. His main jobs included collecting the day’s dirty laundry and pulling weeds. “They have really high standards for cleanliness.”

[Edward64]

There are pics of snow on the ground in Ukraine so the fighting will slow down. It will not be good if there are just news of Russians lobbing cruise missile and drones over the fence and Ukrainian civilians without power. Somehow, Ukraine needs to continue the momentum. My wishful thinking is to continue pressure on Crimea, sabotage and hitting military targets (and ships).

Also rumors of another mobilization but that may just be wishful thinking.

[Edward64]

Hoping this was you Ukraine. Should do same to Crimea.

Explosion hits Russian gas pipeline amid suspicions of sabotage linked to Putin's war on UkraineÂ* | Daily Mail Online

Massive explosion hits Russian Gazprom gas pipeline amid suspicions of sabotage linked to Putin's war on Ukraine

[Edward64]

I've read a couple articles on this but it didn't have alot of details. I assume some sort of bond sale? If so, would be interested in knowing the interest rate offered and who did the buying.

Russia borrows £11.4billion to continue funding war in Ukraine | Daily Mail Online

Russia borrows £11.4billion in its largest ever debt issuance in a single day to continue funding war in Ukraine

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I've read a couple articles on this but it didn't have alot of details. I assume some sort of bond sale? If so, would be interested in knowing the interest rate offered and who did the buying.

Russia borrows £11.4billion to continue funding war in Ukraine | Daily Mail Online

Feels like that's more of a double-down move than a "let's resolve this intelligently" move....

[Edward64]

I think its more of "lets buy more time" and "we'll do another in Feb".

I hope there are some financial sleuths that will figure out who bought the debt. Surely not China? Maybe some Russian conglomerates? Or maybe Russia just printed the money?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Edward64

There are pics of snow on the ground in Ukraine so the fighting will slow down. It will not be good if there are just news of Russians lobbing cruise missile and drones over the fence and Ukrainian civilians without power. Somehow, Ukraine needs to continue the momentum. My wishful thinking is to continue pressure on Crimea, sabotage and hitting military targets (and ships).

Also rumors of another mobilization but that may just be wishful thinking.

Frozen ground is easier than mud to fight on.

[Edward64]

But then frozen ground will turn into slush?

Lots of articles on winter clothing sent to the soldiers. I haven't seen much about aid helping civilians cope with the winter. I'm sure there is aid. Just hope its more than adequate as the infrastructure has been severely degraded. War is brutal enough on the civilians.

[Edward64]

I really hope that, one day, we snatch this guy (or some partisan group takes him out).

Estonian Foreign Minister handcuffs Hague Wagner sledgehammer

Wagner mercenary group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin yesterday, Thursday, November 24, had a bloodied sledgehammer delivered to the European Parliament in Strasbourg. In response to his action, the Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu today, Friday 25, sent a pair of handcuffs to The Hague.

Reinsalu insisted that the handcuffs will be there waiting for him once his trial starts after the Ukrainian conflict ends. The minister posted a video on his official @UrmasReinsalu Twitter profile, accompanied by the message: “As we witnessed Russian mercenary Prigozhin send his bloody hammer to @Europarl_EN, I’d like him to accept our little gift also that is waiting for him in #Hague”.

His action was made in reference to the recent video that circulated online showing 55-year-old Yevgeny Nuzhin, an alleged Wagner deserter being executed by fellow mercenaries. In the video, a recruited convict was seen with his head taped to a pile of bricks with cling film before his head gets bludgeoned with a sledgehammer.

[Edward64]

First 30-35 sec shows how a grenade is clipped onto a drone. I'm still amazed at some of the footage showing how they can drop a grenade right into a foxhole, I guess you get better with practice.

https://twitter.com/GucciXBT/status/1590891170259169280


This clip shows a drone dropping a grenade into a foxhole with 10-11 soldiers sleeping/lying down. What's weird is how non-responsive some soldiers were after the explosion and how only a few moved ... tired as heck, hypothermic, already severely wounded/dead etc.?

https://twitter.com/warnerta/status/1596017726212169728

[Edward64]

I like NATO wanting Ukraine to join eventually (heck, they'll be able to train NATO troops!) but seems unnecessarily provocative right now.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has reaffirmed the alliance’s commitment to Ukraine, saying they will one day become a NATO member.

Stoltenberg’s remarks came as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his NATO counterparts gathered in Romania to discuss increased support for Ukraine as Moscow continues to bombard energy infrastructure.

“NATO’s door is open,” Stoltenberg said.

“Russia does not have a veto” on countries joining, he said about the recent entry of North Macedonia and Montenegro into the security alliance. He added that Russian President Vladimir Putin “will get Finland and Sweden as NATO members” soon.

The Nordic neighbours applied for membership in April, concerned that Russia might target them next.

“We stand by that, too, on membership for Ukraine,” the former Norwegian prime minister said.

[Edward64]

No idea how effective it'll be. It's an uptick in US involvement but, on the grand scheme to things, doesn't seem to be that big of an escalation.

I guess my question is why does US have to take the lead here. Why not German (or other NATO) trainers? The training doesn't seem to be specialized, hi-tech equipment but more advanced tactics? So you'd think any other large NATO countries can do this.

First on CNN: US considers dramatically expanding training of Ukrainian forces, US officials say | CNN Politics

The Biden administration is considering a dramatic expansion in the training the US military provides to Ukrainian forces, including instructing as many as 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers a month at a US base in Germany, according to multiple US officials.
:
Since the start of the conflict in February, the US has trained only a few thousand Ukrainian soldiers, mostly in small groups, on specific weapons systems.

Under the new program, the US would begin training much larger groups of Ukrainian soldiers in more sophisticated battlefield tactics, including how to coordinate infantry maneuvers with artillery support – “much more intense and comprehensive” training than Ukraine has been receiving in Poland or the UK, according to one source briefed on the proposal.

The proposal, which was made at the behest of Ukraine

How decisive so-called “combined arms training” is likely to be on the battlefield remains an open question because the conflict has primarily been fought as a grinding war of attrition between two artillery armies
:
the primary variable on the battlefield right now is the availability of ammunition on both sides, he said. “The Ukrainians aren’t going to be as effective at combined arms maneuvers if they don’t have enough artillery ammunition.”

Still wondering what the hell the likely endgame is.

[Edward64]

Yup. If US wasn't around, Ukraine likely would be in much worse shape.

Ukraine war shows Europe 'not strong enough': Finnish PM.

"I must be very honest, brutally honest with you, Europe isn't strong enough right now. We would be in trouble without the United States," says Sanna Marin on visit to Australia

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15985...Effm_-7skVI4MA

[NobodyHere]

I hope this is true:

Did Putin Fall Down the Stairs and Soil Himself? What We Know

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I hope this is true:

Did Putin Fall Down the Stairs and Soil Himself? What We Know

Probably as likely as Trump’s golden shower escapades. Both I wish were true but hard to believe without more corroborating evidence

[Edward64]

Two Russian airbases, deep into Russian territory, were attacked this morning. The reddit wishful thinking is some new Ukrainian developed drone that can travel 1,000 miles. Who knows, but great news.

No idea if allies were "consulted". I'd think they don't want attacks deep inside Russia as its another notch up the escalation levels. But then, they may well have provided the satellite/intel for this to be possible.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63857451

Several people have been killed in explosions at two Russian military airfields, according to reports.

A fuel tanker exploded killing three and injuring six in an airfield near the city Ryazan, south-east of Moscow, Russian state media is reporting.

Another two people are reported to have been hurt in an explosion at an airfield in the Saratov region.

It is not known what caused the blasts. Both areas are hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border.

Long-range Russian strategic bombers are believed to be based at the Engels airbase in the Saratov region.

Ukraine has not officially commented.

However, presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak appeared to refer to the reported incidents in a tweet, writing: "If something is launched into [an]other countries' airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point."

[Edward64]

Fascinating, but at the same time sad, slo-mo video of a Russian helicopter being taken out

Better quality of the shot down Kamov Ka-52 (Alligator) yesterday. It has been claimed that the chopper got shot down either by a S-300 or Buk.

Allegedly, the crew was experienced with 6 “Order of Courage”. Crew likely dead.(Had to delete previous tweet)

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1599681192928096256

[Edward64]

For something really fun (no, really) ...

Morning Pikachu Dance. Winter has never been an obstacle to a good mood.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1599644738189070337

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Two Russian airbases, deep into Russian territory, were attacked this morning. The reddit wishful thinking is some new Ukrainian developed drone that can travel 1,000 miles. Who knows, but great news.

No idea if allies were "consulted". I'd think they don't want attacks deep inside Russia as its another notch up the escalation levels. But then, they may well have provided the satellite/intel for this to be possible.

Third drone attack on an airbase in Kursk. This shit is getting real and thinking the allies are not sanctioning this escalation.

I think a drone with a dummy warhead, buzzing (or landing on) Red Square would be pretty funny.

[Edward64]

Interesting on-the-ground, in the frontlines, Russian POV ...

Pro Russian military blogger "Girkin" is back from the front and reports on telegram. Basically, a very surprisingly strong & negative view of the war (which gets bloggers in trouble).

Стрелков Игорь Иванович – Telegram

Simply put, the troops are fighting "by inertia", not having the slightest idea of ​​the ultimate strategic goals of the current military campaign and only guessing about the vague plans of the command for such grandiose senseless gestures as the construction of a completely insane in uselessness (but wildly expensive in terms of execution cost) Surovikin Lines.

For them, a mystery - what is the condition for victory or just a condition for ending the war? And the authorities of the Russian Federation are not able to explain this to them, since setting a clear goal for the NWO means "limiting room for maneuver" - that is, losing the opportunity to declare the goals of the NWO as achieved at any moment that the Kremlin leaders consider convenient.

Therefore, watching how the enemy slowly (and without encountering any opposition) implements his own strategic tasks with the complete passivity of the military and political authorities of the Russian Federation, I do not expect anything good at the front in the coming weeks.

And, yes, - the so-called. "Ukraine" will NOT freeze in winter, will NOT rebel and will NOT fight worse. Vice versa. Its soldiers, who have already believed in their strength as a result of the autumn victories of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and are fully supported by NATO, will only fight harder and harder against the "Muscovites", avenging the hardships that their relatives and friends in the rear are forced to bear. And they will be met only by apathetic performance of duty, behind which many fighters and commanders have long been looming the unresolved question: "What are we doing here ..."

[Edward64]

Congrats, well deserved. I would have added the Iranian protestors also, but do think Zelensky is a rung or two higher.

Volodymyr Zelensky Is TIME's 2022 Person of the Year