WW CXLVI: Portal GAME OVER - Test8

[bhlloy]

Here's my problem with britrock being a wolf... It would have been no effort at all for the wolves to have him on 2 or 3 of their happy lists to avoid him ever being in that situation. I just can't believe we weren't villager - villager in that kind of a vote because it would be so easy to make sure the wolves got a couple votes. They had no way of knowing I had the extra vote and would use it on britrock

I feel worse about a few more people than PF but I'm done screwing up this game with my insight. So I'm happy to go there today

Vote PF

[bhlloy]

I actually don't feel great about a PF vote and here is why. Wolves almost never kill someone because they are on the right track. Wolves usually kill people to screw with the village and make people look bad. As tyke is pushing that argument and I felt really bad about him before amyway, I'm going there for now

Not like I could be more unpopular in this game anyway

Unvote PF
Vote tyketime

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Here's my problem with britrock being a wolf... It would have been no effort at all for the wolves to have him on 2 or 3 of their happy lists to avoid him ever being in that situation. I just can't believe we weren't villager - villager in that kind of a vote because it would be so easy to make sure the wolves got a couple votes. They had no way of knowing I had the extra vote and would use it on britrock

I feel worse about a few more people than PF but I'm done screwing up this game with my insight. So I'm happy to go there today

Vote PF

That's a good point about Britrock Bhlloy, not one I'd thought of. If Britrock is a wolf then it would suggest that the wolves had been out fairly early and didn't want to switch their happy lists so blatently - perhaps they thought that Britrock coming up with the excel sheets and whatnot would sway people over enough for him to beat Julio. I'm interested in hearing alternative candidates if you want to post. It's almost always more beneficial to the village to have people posting their thoughts.

[Narcizo]

Ahh! You beat me to it. What makes you feel bad about tyke Bhlloy? I'll admit he's pretty much on my happy list by default.

[Marc Vaughan]

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

I'm sticking with the initial analysis - double guessing things really doesn't help anyone ..

After all the bhlloy the wolves could have guessed that you'd guessed that and so voted in an obvious manner in order to throw you off the trail

(basically we're as good as blind until we hit a wolf - at that point we can backtrack their voting schema and try and unravel some more information from it ...)

[PackerFanatic]

I really have no clue at this point. Like Narc said, it's odd to be this late in the game and still have no decent read on a baddie.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Here's my problem with britrock being a wolf... It would have been no effort at all for the wolves to have him on 2 or 3 of their happy lists to avoid him ever being in that situation. I just can't believe we weren't villager - villager in that kind of a vote because it would be so easy to make sure the wolves got a couple votes. They had no way of knowing I had the extra vote and would use it on britrock

Originally Posted by Narcizo

If Britrock is a wolf then it would suggest that the wolves had been out fairly early and didn't want to switch their happy lists so blatently - perhaps they thought that Britrock coming up with the excel sheets and whatnot would sway people over enough for him to beat Julio.

I actually think bholly's analysis probably largely holds, but also the wolf saving the villager can be a great move. I would suggest that for that reason bitrock will not be a target for me right now but I still find bholly mighty might suspicious. The 5 wolves "slip" and this extra voting power all add up to trouble for me.

Vote bholly

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I The 5 wolves "slip" and this extra voting power all add up to trouble for me.

The thing for me is that if he is a wolf - why 'out' the voting power .... I'd have thought you'd do your best to stay off the radar and leave everyone in the dark.

By saying he was the cause of the voting irregularity he put himself in the gun sights - that to me shows innocence ....

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

The thing for me is that if he is a wolf - why 'out' the voting power .... I'd have thought you'd do your best to stay off the radar and leave everyone in the dark.

By saying he was the cause of the voting irregularity he put himself in the gun sights - that to me shows innocence ....

Lying is hard. Playing a wolf as a newer player can be challenging as you want to contribute analysis like a villager, but have to somehow do that without betraying all the hidden knowledge that you have. I think he simply slipped and revealed information he shouldn't have.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

The thing for me is that if he is a wolf - why 'out' the voting power .... I'd have thought you'd do your best to stay off the radar and leave everyone in the dark.

By saying he was the cause of the voting irregularity he put himself in the gun sights - that to me shows innocence ....

I see what you're saying here, but I'm also worried that he could be capitalizing on that. By owning up to his "mistake" he gains some trust from the village. And if it doesn't work, well, people were already on him for switching to Autumn the other night anyway.

The "good" thing about the mess we're in now is that the odds of getting a wolf by random chance are getting better. So there's that, I guess. I do think the choices of PF, bhlloy, and britrock are good ones, and we're likely to hit a wolf with all three, but we definitely need to make sure we're going with our best option, and avoiding ties.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Lying is hard. Playing a wolf as a newer player can be challenging as you want to contribute analysis like a villager, but have to somehow do that without betraying all the hidden knowledge that you have. I think he simply slipped and revealed information he shouldn't have.

Oh is bhlloy a newer player? I think he's less likely to be a wolf if he's newer. But then again, he could be coached, or he could be deciding to take some chances that most wolves wouldn't take.

[Barkeep49]

My understanding is he's newer. Can someone confirm one way or another?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Oh is bhlloy a newer player? I think he's less likely to be a wolf if he's newer. But then again, he could be coached, or he could be deciding to take some chances that most wolves wouldn't take.

DOLA - Why do you think he's less likely if he's newer?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

DOLA - Why do you think he's less likely if he's newer?

I'm just thinking a newer player would be less likely to pull the ruse of being a wolf, saving another wolf, killing a villager, and owning up to it, hoping for forgiveness.

Then again, wolves talk to each other, so that could be a plan put together by a lot of people over time.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm just thinking a newer player would be less likely to pull the ruse of being a wolf, saving another wolf, killing a villager, and owning up to it, hoping for forgiveness.

Then again, wolves talk to each other, so that could be a plan put together by a lot of people over time.

The alternative being just a villager who's flaying around wildly? Hmm.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The alternative being just a villager who's flaying around wildly? Hmm.

Well, from what I recall of his explanation, he didn't really know that he was saving britrock with his vote. So that could be.

FWIW, I should probably mention that if britrock and bhlloy are wolves, I'm looking at you next as the ringleader.

[Passacaglia]

I mean, I'm thinking several days from now, of course. Narcizo's a possibility, too. And I kind of forgot that KWhit is alive still, that's another option.

[Ragone]

Alls we seem to be doing is adding more people to the. Lynch list rather
Than settling on a target..

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Dunno. If the wolves did save Britrock then someone has got to own up to saving him or he's toast today. Of course it doesn't have to have been you who saved Britrock it could be any one of 4 or 5 people. Don't understand why it would be you to admit it though so that's a star for you.

But yeah - the vote switching wouldn't be standard for a wolf. I'll be inordinately pissed off (but take my hat off to you as well) if it turns out that Britrock, Packer and Raiders are all wolves and you've saved their arses three nights out of four. But that sort of thing doesn't happen. I hope.

The bolded is a great point by Narcizo. To those of you saying bhlloy should be commended for his honesty -- if Julio dies and britrock doesn't, and there's no explanation, wouldn't you just vote britrock without much pause? It's looking more to me like this was all done to save him from that.

VOTE BRITROCK

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Ragone

Alls we seem to be doing is adding more people to the. Lynch list rather
Than settling on a target..

Agreed. Which at least makes me wonder about the last couple of votes that added new candidates...

[Narcizo]

As of 1270 I have;

Ragone (1) - Raiders Army (1236)
Britrock (3) - Narcizo (1245), Ragone (1246), Passacaglia (1269)
Packers (3) - Tyke (1249), Simbo (1250), Marc Vaughan (1255),
Tyketime (1) - Bhlloy (1252)
Bholly (1) - Barkeep (1258)

Has not voted: Britrock, PackerFanatic, mckerney, KWhit

[Narcizo]

I don't think that Britrock being a wolf has to mean Bhlloy is one, or vice versa for that matter. I really can't make my mind up about Bhlloy either but I still lean towards him being villager or he's getting guidance. In fact if we lynch Packers and it turns out he's a wolf I'd definitely look at Passacaglia as a wolf - I think the bait-and-switch move on day four is far more his MO. And whaddya know, Passa is voting Britrock over Packers today. Gah! I don't know. I mean, logically, I know we're screwed but I still want to work things out.

[Passacaglia]

I'm not sure which one was Day 4 and what you mean by bait-and-switch, but I thought I'd mentioned a couple times that I was fine with a PF vote.

[CrimsonFox]

Official Tally:
Ragone - Raiders
Britrock - Narcizo Ragone Pass
PackerFanatic - tyketime Simbo MarcV
tyketime - bhlloy
bhlloy - Barkeep

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm not sure which one was Day 4 and what you mean by bait-and-switch, but I thought I'd mentioned a couple times that I was fine with a PF vote.

The one where you admitted that you voted Packers with the intention of switching to Autumn all the time. Or have I misremembered/misinterpreted what you said? Not that it matters because the end-result is the same if Packers is a wolf. You keep the running level and hope that a villager switches to Autumn to break the tie and gets the heat of condemning a villager with the option of doing so yourself if nobody else obliges.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I actually think bholly's analysis probably largely holds, but also the wolf saving the villager can be a great move. I would suggest that for that reason bitrock will not be a target for me right now but I still find bholly mighty might suspicious. The 5 wolves "slip" and this extra voting power all add up to trouble for me.

Vote bholly

Just reading through again I think you're mixing up bhlloy and Britrock here Bark. Must be all those Bs. Bhlloy had the extra happiness vote yesterday but it's Britrock who said there were 5 wolves. I believe this is Britrock's first game - Bhlloy's been round the tracks a fair few times. In fact I think he might have been around when werewolf first started here but admit I might be mixing him up with someone else.

[Passacaglia]

That's mostly right, except that it was level before I voted in the first place. I voted for PF, and wanted to see if someone would switch their vote to save Autumn, then I'd switch back and we'd catch the person who tried to save him. Although I got caught up in the heat of bhlloy switching his vote to save PF. And I still think there's something to that: now that you've got me looking at the vote history, bhlloy's Day 3 throwaway vote on PF look awful fishy. And wow, bhlloy has had lynching votes on two villagers right before deadline, then throw on the secret votes for good measure. Really, this is too much. I feel like we're trying so hard to find the tiniest clues that the wolves don't want us to find, that as a result, we're missing the big one right in front of our nose. Also, britrock's final vote for RA coming right after bhlloy made it a 9-7 lead for The Jackal, kind of stinks to me, too. Put down my unhappy list as bhlloy, britrock, PF, RA.

[PackerFanatic]

The analysis I have seen is pretty solid...and better than anything I have time for today. Plus I might as well save my own ass, right?

VOTE BRITROCK

[CrimsonFox]

Official Tally:
Ragone - Raiders
Britrock - Narcizo Ragone Pass PackerFanatic
PackerFanatic - tyketime Simbo MarcV
tyketime - bhlloy
bhlloy - Barkeep

[CrimsonFox]

I'm going to be out most of the afternoon with a dental appointment. (EEEEK). There's a chance I MAY not be back by deadline. The deadline is STILL 7 PM tho for voting actions, but the results MIGHT be late. Night actions time shouldn't change either, but give extra contingency selections just in case it runs late.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Just reading through again I think you're mixing up bhlloy and Britrock here Bark. Must be all those Bs. Bhlloy had the extra happiness vote yesterday but it's Britrock who said there were 5 wolves. I believe this is Britrock's first game - Bhlloy's been round the tracks a fair few times. In fact I think he might have been around when werewolf first started here but admit I might be mixing him up with someone else.

Oh. Hmm. That really changes my thinking.

Unvote bholly

So all these people voting Bitrock: how would the wolves have ever let someone get THAT low. I mean we have no reason to suspect that they're incompetent thus far so why leave one of your people to have to be "saved"? I just don't buy that. To me I think someone being at the bottom of the list is about as good of a sign as we have this game that they're a villager. So I'm pretty disinclined to think bitrock or Julio are wolves.

So instead I'll go with the group that think PF's vote record just can't be explained at this point, as spread out voting only plays into the wolves hands.

Vote PackerFanatic

[PackerFanatic]

Am I supposed to always vote for the same person? What happens when I vote for the lynched?

[CrimsonFox]

Official Tally:
Ragone - Raiders
Britrock - Narcizo Ragone Pass PackerFanatic
PackerFanatic - tyketime Simbo MarcV Barkeep
tyketime - bhlloy

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So all these people voting Bitrock: how would the wolves have ever let someone get THAT low.

Britrock was very untrusted that day -- if 2 or so wolves had to put him on their happy list to keep him clear, it would have raised some red flags. I could see them taking a risk that brit would be okay, knowing they have this as a backup -- especially since a villager (Julio) had some trust in him. Really brilliant move by Julio, IMO, only to be screwed by bhlloy.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So all these people voting Bitrock: how would the wolves have ever let someone get THAT low. I mean we have no reason to suspect that they're incompetent thus far so why leave one of your people to have to be "saved"?

I've answered that one from Bhlloy. If the wolves got out of the blocks early then they wouldn't want to shift over to Britrock so overtly. Maybe Britrock knocks out the excel rundowns hoping that that would buy him some goodwill. Maybe they didn't expect Julio to change his votes - maybe there are other wolves down at the bottom of the list and they didn't want to risk losing one of them. Any move to save Britrock was going to be scrutinised - maybe they didn't think it worth the risk to cover for him.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Am I supposed to always vote for the same person? What happens when I vote for the lynched?

What do you mean Packer?

Anyway, I'm around for another hour. Anyone going to pitch another candidate or should I decide between Britrock and Packers?

[britrock88]

I think those who are looking at the Happy List results to get a read on me are very perceptive. I had no idea I would survive that vote -- I gave Julio the 1 point just so that everyone could have someone on their side! I lost that he was the only vote for me in the midst of that spreadsheet. Then, I was away at deadline, returned to see that he had changed his list, and figured I was done for.

Also, as for the Jackal/RA vote, the reason I hedged so long on voting was that I didn't have any inkling that either was a wolf, and I didn't want to be the vote that lynched a villager. So when bhlloy switched, I voted mainly to indicate that I was paying attention and participating; it was no judgment of RA on my part.

As it's down to PF and myself at this point in the day, I'll have to go in his direction. If there's a run on another candidate that I have a fishier feeling about, though, I'll move my vote there.

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[Narcizo]

It would be helpful if people made their cases rather than just saying "Well I have to vote even if I think there are better candidates". Tell us who.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Anyone going to pitch another candidate or should I decide between Britrock and Packers?

Originally Posted by Narcizo

It would be helpful if people made their cases rather than just saying "Well I have to vote even if I think there are better candidates". Tell us who.

Waiting for Narcizo to say "well I have to vote " while voting for either PF or BR.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

What do you mean Packer?

Anyway, I'm around for another hour. Anyone going to pitch another candidate or should I decide between Britrock and Packers?

Barkeep mentioned my spread out voting playing into the wolves hands as one of the reasons he voted for me.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Barkeep mentioned my spread out voting playing into the wolves hands as one of the reasons he voted for me.

I was actually mentioning two concepts there. Your overall vote record isn't great. Separately, I think having a spread out vote is bad for the village. So I'm voting for you so as to not spread out the vote and because I'm not a fan of your post voting.

[Narcizo]

One thing I'm not sure Bhlloy has addressed is why he put Britrock on his happiness list when he'd pretty much been after him for a lot of the game. Was it solely a question of Britrock vs Julio and trusting Britrock more. However as I'm about to go for the night I doubt that will be answered.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

It would be helpful if people made their cases rather than just saying "Well I have to vote even if I think there are better candidates". Tell us who.

The reason I hesitate is that even though I have some suspicions, they're all hunches. It's hard to see how any of us have solid ideas of who the wolves are. Because PF is fairly high on my list of distrusted players and because he's multiple votes ahead of any others, my vote goes in his direction.

I will tell of a few feelings I've had, because you ask. I was very suspicious of bhlloy because he is fairly active, but construes what others say pretty strangely, looking at those comments with a suspicious eye of his own. It's a good ploy for a wolf to be visible and convey the perspective of a suspicious villager. I owe him a tip-of-the-hat for saving me, though I have not yet understood how that might play into the perception of him I had in the early going.

Another rising suspicion I have is actually of you, Narcizo. People are pointing to the fact that I made the Happy List spreadsheet as an attempt to curry favor. You've done that for just about every other test. Why, then, does no one seem to think that your helpfulness is your way of ingratiating yourself to the villagers as a potential wolf?

[britrock88]

There are others, of course. And I don't know if this is any kind of reasonable way to try to convince you to vote PF. But I think showing you that I am suspicious of the players who have been most helpful in the game thus far shows that I am trying to actively discern who is whom, and not embarking on some coverup adventure as a wolf.

[Narcizo]

Right then. I've got to go. I've been looking at the respective blocs of voters here and there's an obvious potential grouping of Pass and Packer. But presuming Bhlloy switches to Packer that puts Bhlloy and Brit together. I really wouldn't be surprised to see an UTR wolf grouping of Marc V, Barkeep and simbo or something. I wish mckerney and Raiders were around and posting but hey ho. Of course this could just be villager-villager and the wolves aren't blocing their votes together at all.

I'm going to leave my vote. Hate to leave at this stage but it can't be helped. It's not like we can actually win anyway.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Another rising suspicion I have is actually of you, Narcizo. People are pointing to the fact that I made the Happy List spreadsheet as an attempt to curry favor. You've done that for just about every other test. Why, then, does no one seem to think that your helpfulness is your way of ingratiating yourself to the villagers as a potential wolf?

I always do the voting thing if I have the time whether I'm a wolf or villager. But you being admitting to being suspicious of me does make me trust you a bit more, perversely.

[Narcizo]

Dammit. I don't know - I nearly switched my vote.

Seems to me a couple of wolves would hold off their vote to see if the wolf is going down and adding their votes to throw him under the bus. But if three wolves have lumped their votes I think that voting bloc is on Packers. That's it. I really am going now.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Dammit. I don't know - I nearly switched my vote.

Seems to me a couple of wolves would hold off their vote to see if the wolf is going down and adding their votes to throw him under the bus. But if three wolves have lumped their votes I think that voting bloc is on Packers. That's it. I really am going now.

FWIW, my thinking is that we're wolf-wolf, so I'm not too concerned with voting blocs.

[bhlloy]

Well obviously this vote is going one of two ways. I think I've saved both of these guys at one point in the game or another.

I'm gonna go with britrock just because I got a very Wolfy "guy being told what to do and when to do it" earlier in the game. Backed off that when I knew it was his first game but he's had a good run here

Unvote tyke
Vote britrock

[bhlloy]

FYI I'm going to watch a show on broadway, so I probably won't be on now until after deadline