Werewolf XCVI: The Dark One and The Order of Righteousness (GAME OVER EVIL WINS)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

If they've got a wolf, yes. The jail mechanic would be helpful then.

Assuming our BG hasn't already protected them - they protect the seer tonight, get another scan and we jail the seer tomorrow to protect them and then the king frees the seer and the BG can protect again.

If they don't have a wolf though, no, the seer should stay hidden.

Pretty clever plan, Lerriuqs, nice. I hadn't thought about the jail like that.

[Telle]

Just a strategy question... how many days should a seer stay quiet if they don't find a wolf? Because you do have to worry that eventually the wolves will get lucky with a night kill and you lose the knowledge of a CoT that the seer has built.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

you need to break some eggs to make an omlette.

and are you saying you think the seer should come out?

Of course not.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

IMO, logic dictates that wolves are more likely to be in the "lynch" camp actually, especially with the Dark One dead, since they can't control the deaths of villagers in prison and are left concerned that the King might free everyone in the joint at any time. A wolf will want a lynch because that way, they know those villagers are dead and out of the game for sure.

So, IMO, some of the best wolf candidates are actually those supporting the lynch, rather than jail. This more goes for those who have supported lynching from the start. I more undertsand people leaning toward lynching today, as it is true that the jail mechanism devalues the voting records, which is entirely frustrating.

Yes to all of this. Something I have been saying since day one.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Telle

Just a strategy question... how many days should a seer stay quiet if they don't find a wolf? Because you do have to worry that eventually the wolves will get lucky with a night kill and you lose the knowledge of a CoT that the seer has built.

Based on what I've seen - Day 4 or so seems to be about the limit here...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm not so sure. If I was a wolf I would be in the jail camp. There are still villagers that can be killed, there is only a 20% chance of a scan, and the jailed villagers can't use their abilities from prison and don't count towards victory conditions.

I think a wolf would be comfortable with jailing if that was the way the village was going, because of the reasons you give here. But I think given the choice, they would rather lynch than jail. That just makes more sense for them, for the reasons I stated above.

In particular, I find it unlikely that people standing adamantly in support of jail over lynch, such that they are vehemently defending the action, are wolves. That is nonsensicle. Why would a wolf staunchly defend the less preferable option of the two for his side, especially when it puts a target on him for said defense, and it is perfectly reasonable to support lynching as a villager?

I don't necessarily think we should look exclusively at lynch supporters for a wolf, but I do think it's entirely illogical to insist on going after players who are clearly 100% for jailing and loudly defending it. If KWhit's a wolf, he's being an extremely poor one.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

If they've got a wolf, yes. The jail mechanic would be helpful then.

Assuming our BG hasn't already protected them - they protect the seer tonight, get another scan and we jail the seer tomorrow to protect them and then the king frees the seer and the BG can protect again.

If they don't have a wolf though, no, the seer should stay hidden.

Ooooo, I like that.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think we should lynch KWhit because of his blind insistence on how jailing is good in the obvious face of the opposite.

Why him? It doesn't seem like he's the only one.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think we should lynch KWhit because of his blind insistence on how jailing is good in the obvious face of the opposite.

Obvious face of the opposite? That's crap and you know it. There are as many people who feel that jailing is the best course of action as do lynching. It's quite clear that it is NOT obvious.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I think a wolf would be comfortable with jailing if that was the way the village was going, because of the reasons you give here. But I think given the choice, they would rather lynch than jail. That just makes more sense for them, for the reasons I stated above.

In particular, I find it unlikely that people standing adamantly in support of jail over lynch, such that they are vehemently defending the action, are wolves. That is nonsensicle. Why would a wolf staunchly defend the less preferable option of the two for his side, especially when it puts a target on him for said defense, and it is perfectly reasonable to support lynching as a villager?

I don't necessarily think we should look exclusively at lynch supporters for a wolf, but I do think it's entirely illogical to insist on going after players who are clearly 100% for jailing and loudly defending it. If KWhit's a wolf, he's being an extremely poor one.

which is exactlly why he does it if he is a wolf, so people will say " he would never act that way!"

[Chief Rum]

BTW, something to keep in mind that I noted from the rules.

The Cultist is also a seer, and has been able to scan every night. That person is, of course, not inclined to help the village.

[RendeR]

I'm really not thrilled on the seer coming out unless they've actually GOTTEN a wolf.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

which is exactlly why he does it if he is a wolf, so people will say " he would never act that way!"

Bull. Occam's Razor. There other, easier ways to establish a little trust as a wolf than to get into a loud debate about mechanics, especially when we run into this so often, where people doggedly say things like "I'm voting for anyone who votes for jail"; etc.

It's dogheadedness like that that will lose us the game.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I'm really not thrilled on the seer coming out unless they've actually GOTTEN a wolf.

I think it depends on how we play the jail/lynch thing out. If we are lynching, the chance that the wolves hit the seer really ramps up as days go by.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

which is exactlly why he does it if he is a wolf, so people will say " he would never act that way!"

So now you're saying that if someone's arguing loudly for something that is good for the village (which was Chief's argument) that they're a wolf. While that's certainly possible I don't think that's the strongest evidence to vote with.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

BTW, something to keep in mind that I noted from the rules.

The Cultist is also a seer, and has been able to scan every night. That person is, of course, not inclined to help the village.

Just read it too - the way it reads, we don't even have to worry about him unless the Dark One can be reborn...Only the Dark One can convert him.

So is everyone assuming 3 wolves plus cultist or 4 wolves and cultist? We're looking at either 2 or 3 wolves now, based on that...

[Telle]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I'm really not thrilled on the seer coming out unless they've actually GOTTEN a wolf.

But eventually, knowing that X number of villagers are good is as good of information as knowing that 1 is bad. The question is.. what number is X?

And no, in case anyone's wondering, I'm not the seer trying to figure out when to reveal.

[SnDvls]

Final Day 1 Vote Count:

Pass Jail - 10 - Clap (222), USFL (253), MartinD (261), Hoops (300), path12 (344), Tyrith (366), lerriuqs (372), Pass (380), Jackal (383), BK (395)
BK Jail - 8 - Lathum (177), Render (210), SnDvLs (233), DT (235), saldana (278), CR (295), Danny (349), Kwhit (369)
KWhit Jail - 2 - Autumn (254), Telle (320)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Schmidty (298)

Day 2 Final Vote Count:

Abe/Clap Jail - 5 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Abe/Clap Lynch - 3 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560), BK (698)
Pass Jail - 3 - Tyrith (718), Autumn (770), RendeR (783)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)
Telle Jail - 1 - Danny (736)

Final Day 3 Vote Count:

Abe Jail - 6 - RendeR (1056), CR (1060), Jackal (1063), lerriuqs (1065), KWhit (1095), DT (1168)
Abe Lynch - 4 - Path (1042), Martin (1045), USFLTecmo (1074), BK (1108)
Autumn Lynch - 4 - SnDvls (1050), Lathum (1077), Saldana (1178), Pass (1194)
DaddyTorgo Jail - 3 - Autumn (1087), Abe (1112), Telle (1126)

[Lathum]

OK, I like lerriuqs plan, will be gone soon so I need to get it out there now.

I'm Crystal Oculo, I scanned BK N1 which is why my turnaround on him about being king.

N2 I scanned Pass because of his escape.

Last night I scanned KWhit based on his insistence about jail and he came up as having a dark auroa. Thats why I came out the way I did today


we need to start buillding a CoT

[Autumn]

Well my list of people I poked at yesterday as targest were Sndvls, DaddyT, Saldana and KWhit. As I siad yesterda, I dind't find anything on KWhit when I looked back at it, and the argument this morning has me also thinking it's unlikely he's a wolf. DaddyT obviously turned out to be good, which shows how much I know.

Sndvls still has me suspicious though that may be colored by his seeming enthusiastic attempt to paint me bad yesterday. Still, his comment this morning and then no answer to this question still leaves me wondering.

Saldana I thought has been very quiet, blew in yesterday huffy about me calling him quiet and then blew out again as far as I can see?

Who else do we have on people's Hmmmm list? Or thoughts on mine.

[Passacaglia]

I had Lathum as the seer anyway.


UNVOTE LERRIUQS LYNCH
VOTE KWHIT LYNCH

[Autumn]

Wow, forget my nonsense, lol.

And Sndvls, I see you were busy working, thanks.

[Autumn]

I did not have Lathum as the seer, I'm really bad at this.

vote kwhit lynch

I'm willing to stick this up there until I hear some reason not to believe Lathum. His story makes sense, but I'd expect that of a Lathum-wolf too.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I did not have Lathum as the seer, I'm really bad at this.

vote kwhit lynch

I'm willing to stick this up there until I hear some reason not to believe Lathum. His story makes sense, but I'd expect that of a Lathum-wolf too.

The turnaround on BK was what tipped me off -- although he could also have been setting himself up to claim seer. I don't think he would do that right before leaving, though -- but if someone else claims it, I'll definitely hear them out.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, I like lerriuqs plan, will be gone soon so I need to get it out there now.

I'm Crystal Oculo, I scanned BK N1 which is why my turnaround on him about being king.

N2 I scanned Pass because of his escape.

Last night I scanned KWhit based on his insistence about jail and he came up as having a dark auroa. Thats why I came out the way I did today


we need to start buillding a CoT

Lie. Fake reveal.

Lathum is not the seer. I don't know who is, but I am a normal villager.

Do not believe him at all.

[lerriuqs]

vote kwhit lynch

I have to go do some work but I'll check in later.

[RendeR]

L@@KS

[SnDvls]

VOTE LYNCH KWHIT

gotta go with this unless we have a counter then it's an either or vote and the other goes tomorrow.

Usually the person who comes out 1st is the teller of truths

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

If they've got a wolf, yes. The jail mechanic would be helpful then.

Assuming our BG hasn't already protected them - they protect the seer tonight, get another scan and we jail the seer tomorrow to protect them and then the king frees the seer and the BG can protect again.

If they don't have a wolf though, no, the seer should stay hidden.

only issue I have with this is what if the king is killed before freeing the prisoners? Then the BG and all that stuff is thrown off as we have to elect a new king first.

[Autumn]

My first thought is that this makes Abe look good, as KWhit was very vocal about Tyrith being bad casting Clap/Abe in a bad light. I would still keep Abe in jail and hope for a free scan on him but looking at the voting records I'm going to assume then that Abe is good.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

only issue I have with this is what if the king is killed before freeing the prisoners? Then the BG and all that stuff is thrown off as we have to elect a new king first.

Good point but with these scans we should be able to elect in a cleared person. The election goes through durign the day so the king should be able to free at night still, right?

[Chief Rum]

Guys, keep in mind, we have a Cultist. He may not be able to be converted, but he is not on our side.

From the rules:

Drago Prodo - If attempted to be night killed by The Dark One, Drago will become a follower. If any other follower attempts to kill Drago, Drago will be killed as a follower would not dare disobey a kill order from The Dark One. You do not know who The Dark One or his followers are. You count as a villager unless you are converted. You win with The Followers of the Dark One.

Drago is a skilled seer and may scan one player each night to determine that player's aura. Will read The Dark One as having a light aura. Drago has spent his life studying The Dark One and as such has himself become corrupted. While not a skilled knight The Dark One may yet have use for Drago. If Drago becomes converted he is only able to have a 50% success rate on a kill attempt and will himself be killed if he encounters a member of The Order of Righteousness. Drago performs kills with poison. While lethal, with Drago having no formal combat training and instead living the life of a scholar, Drago finds himself having trouble getting close enough to administer the poison. If Drago does not become converted he still may have a chance to perform a night kill. There also may be other conversion mechanics at work to get Drago on the side of The Dark One. However these mechanics are known only to Drago.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Autumn

So do you think everyone who is talking a lot is either a wolf or a roled villager?

to answer your question no.

but as I said before about being quiet...if I have nothing to offer to the conversation I see no need in padding my post count with useless info. It just makes it harder for people who need to catch up and provides nothing to the game or how to judge me good or bad for the other villagers.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

especially when we run into this so often, where people doggedly say things like "I'm voting for anyone who votes for jail"; etc.

It's dogheadedness like that that will lose us the game.

I certainly can be dogheaded, but to be fair this is the first day I flat out stated I'd vote for someone who voted to jail rather than lynch.

It's been FOUR DAYS now and we haven't gained a thing with the jail strategy. You might argue that 'well, that's good guys who haven't been lynched', but it's just as valid to say we haven't gotten any closer to finding a wolf because we have no voting records and we very well might have lynched one if we'd gone that way.

We have managed to lose four villagers anyway though. I'm not going to argue the point anymore though, my feelings are pretty clear I think.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Guys, keep in mind, we have a Cultist. He may not be able to be converted, but he is not on our side.

I have that in mind, but I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

[KWhit]

I am not sure why Lathum's doing this now. I suppose to smoke out the real seer. But we have a pretty good plan in place to protect the seer by jailing him and bodyguarding him.

Hmmmm....

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If Drago does not become converted he still may have a chance to perform a night kill. There also may be other conversion mechanics at work to get Drago on the side of The Dark One. However these mechanics are known only to Drago.[/i]

This was very interesting, as I had forgotten this aspect of the role.

[path12]

And what do you know, we get some info.

VOTE LYNCH KWHIT

I'm not 100% on this because of the cultist angle but until or unless better/different/more compelling info comes out I see no reason to do anything else.

[RendeR]

hrm, gotta go feed the munchkins, I'll come back to see the fireworks =)

[Autumn]

It's a good point Chief, in that even if a seer's scan proves to be correct they could be using that to buy our favor and get the real seer offed. But I think we can avoid that circumstance.

[Autumn]

Those hidden mechanics to convert Drago concern me. But I'm going to go have lunch and see what transpires this afternoon.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I have that in mind, but I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

It's self-serving at this point for KWhit to say it, but I am suggesting that the Cultist could be doing scans as well, have scanned KWhit as light and wants to help the wolves. So he tries to smoke out the seer by revealing, and getting a villager lynched at the same time.

I don't know what Lathum's allegiance is, and he may indeed be the seer. But I am a bit skittish after last game when it comes to COTs, especially when the Cultist role is around. So I am a bit sensitive right now to getting the runaround here.

I guess there is one way to find out: we lynch KWhit.

VOTE LYNCH KWHIT

If Lathum is the seer, we're good. If he's not, I'll be really curious to see what the seer is doing.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Lie. Fake reveal.

Lathum is not the seer. I don't know who is, but I am a normal villager.

Do not believe him at all.

Unfortunately for you, we can afford to take that chance - with only 5 villagers gone (assuming Abe in prison is one) and somewhere around an 11-3 or 12-2 ratio with the cultist not being converted - unless the Dark One is reborn (who knows there). If the real seer is still out there, I'd suggest them not revealing today unless they have another wolf.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It's self-serving at this point for KWhit to say it, but I am suggesting that the Cultist could be doing scans as well, have scanned KWhit as light and wants to help the wolves. So he tries to smoke out the seer by revealing, and getting a villager lynched at the same time.

I don't know what Lathum's allegiance is, and he may indeed be the seer. But I am a bit skittish after last game when it comes to COTs, especially when the Cultist role is around. So I am a bit sensitive right now to getting the runaround here.

I guess there is one way to find out: we lynch KWhit.

VOTE LYNCH KWHIT

If Lathum is the seer, we're good. If he's not, I'll be really curious to see what the seer is doing.

Heh. I totally missed that angle on the seer. I don't know what game is being played here, but something is definitely up. Lathum is lying. I don't have any evidence to offer up at this point, but it is what it is.

Sounds like nobody is going to just take my word for it, though, so I'm likely at the mercy of the real seer to determine if I make it out.

Oh, and one other thing. If I am lynched, PLEASE lynch the hell out of Lathum tomorrow when I turn up as a villager.

When/if that does happen, he will probably come up with some lame ass lie about how he's really a villager who fake revealed just to shut me up because he knows that lynching is the way to go and had to get me out of the game because I'm doing a dis-service to the village by pushing for jailing. Don't you dare let him get away with that.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Unfortunately for you, we can afford to take that chance.

Yes, I know. Which is why I don't understand why Lathum's doing it.

Well, it might make sense if he's the cultist or if he thinks he can get away with a lie about him trying to shut up the jail-first contingent.

But I just don't think it makes sense for this play right now from the wolves point of view.

[lerriuqs]

Okay...Some thoughts - If KWhit comes up innocent - what is Lathum's angle? The cultist? If so, is that unknown mechanic coming into play by lynching him? Perhaps we could consider jailing him tomorrow and having the king have him executed? Might get us around it...

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Okay...Some thoughts - If KWhit comes up innocent - what is Lathum's angle? The cultist? If so, is that unknown mechanic coming into play by lynching him? Perhaps we could consider jailing him tomorrow and having the king have him executed? Might get us around it...

Or just jail him and leave him there.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Or just jail him and leave him there.

That works too except for the jailbreak option.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

That works too except for the jailbreak option.

That's assuming the Dark One is reborn or something, right? I'm fine assuming that won't happen.

[USFLTecmo]

VOTE LYNCH KWHIT

I subscribe to Chief Rum's theory.