Official 2016 MLB season thread

[stevew]

Robertson back to the Yankees would make a lot of sense. And I still don't think that would preclude them from working out a deal with Chapman as well.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Getting Sale is big. It's going to come down to whether or not his arm slot leads to significant shoulder/elbow problems sometime soon. I watch him pitch and it just looks like a ticking time bomb ready to blow. Healthy he's a true ace and gives the Red Sox a really nice rotation.

I think Moncada is #1 prospect in baseball good. He has an advanced approach for his age, has developing power, and the upside is off the charts. Kopech was the best pitcher in the AFL this year, but he has to show he has at least some command and the ability to throw more than 100 innings per year.

All in all I think it's a good risk for the Red Sox and a hell of a return by the White Sox for a player they desperately needed to move for prospects like this.

Yeah, the inverted W is terrifying, but it's been terrifying since he was drafted, so at this point I'm not sure he's any more likely to get hurt than any other pitcher. Plus, although the prospect cost is high, Sale is only signed for 3 years & 30 million, so it's not like we're potentially on the hook for $200 million in a sunk cost if he does get hurt tomorrow. And his low AAV helps us avoid going over the newer, much more punitive luxury tax threshold which is a minor bonus.

Moncada is a great prospect and a true 5 tool prospect you can dream on, but the actual production has never matched the hype at the plate and I'd have him around 10th instead of #1. He has high BB numbers, but he also has a 30% K rate and I don't actually think he has an advanced approach - he would just always take a couple pitches and be deep in counts before he started swinging, and was constantly fooled by offspeed stuff. The power was similar - the raw power is obviously there, and he matched that with great exit velocity, but his launch angle was poor which led to high GB rates every stop, and especially from the right side where he's not nearly as fluid he didn't have as much in game power as you'd expect. Even despite the difference in ceiling I'd take Andrew Benintendi over him straight up, I'd take Devers over him at 3B (I think Moncada's best position is CF, which we have locked up for years), and I just think Moncada has too much bust potential for a #1 prospect. Maybe he hits the ceiling, but imo he's Adam Jones/Alfonso Soriano not Mike Trout.

Kopech has the raw tools and that huge fastball, but questionable command of secondaries, partially due to low IP totals which were because of stupidity/immaturity (broke his hand punching a teammate, 50 game drug suspension).

Like I said, I'm happy with this trade in a vacuum, but I hate Dombrowski's overall work + track record.

[Logan]

Looks like a Soler for Davis swap is coming.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Wow. Huge change.

[Neuqua]

Win/win trade for the Cubs/Royals.

Cubs get a closer in exchange for a young OF who really had no ABs available this upcoming season. Royals get a cost controlled OF'er who has solid potential.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Neuqua

Win/win trade for the Cubs/Royals.

Cubs get a closer in exchange for a young OF who really had no ABs available this upcoming season. Royals get a cost controlled OF'er who has solid potential.

That's not totally true in regards to cost controlled. If he outperforms his contract in 2017, he becomes eligible for arbitration. Of course, while it might end up costing more, it's also a good thing from a performance perspective for the club.

Most Royals fans are getting a bit too emotionally tied into a player. Wade was a great guy and did well for us, but he had arms injuries last year and is already 31. With Herrera available, it really was a no-brainer to move Davis.

[Atocep]

Soler for Davis is a good deal. Soler is a young, starting OFer with some upside and Davis is a 1 year rental as a reliever.

All around solid deal here for both teams. The Cubs filled a need and the Royals moved quickly to get a return after the new CBA likely changed the course of action for the franchise.

[Logan]

Nats just gave up an enormous package, including Giolito, for Adam Eaton.

I approve.

[stevew]

sigh, that means we'll have to find a new home for Cutch.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by Logan

Nats just gave up an enormous package, including Giolito, for Adam Eaton.

I approve.

I'm fine with Giolito going, I don't think he's going to reach his potential, but sending both him and Lopez away is insane for Eaton unless Eaton is a 6 WAR guy for each of the next 3 years. I hope they're not thinking Eaton in CF where he's been below average as a fielder.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Logan

Nats just gave up an enormous package, including Giolito, for Adam Eaton.

I approve.

They plan on moving him to center. Not sure why you wouldn't throw 4/65 at Dexter Fowler and get essentially the same player without giving up the prospects. Eaton would make roughly $30 mil over the same timeframe. Surely the Nationals would value Giolito, Dunning, and Lopez at more than $30 million.

[stevew]

Chapman to the Yanks for a ton of money(5/86)

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by Atocep

They plan on moving him to center. Not sure why you wouldn't throw 4/65 at Dexter Fowler and get essentially the same player without giving up the prospects. Eaton would make roughly $30 mil over the same timeframe. Surely the Nationals would value Giolito, Dunning, and Lopez at more than $30 million.

They're not really the same player. Eaton's probably about a win and a half better per year at this stage in their careers, and he's three years younger than Fowler (Fowler will play 2017 at 31; Eaton at 28). The next four years has Eaton under contract from ages 28-31, while a mythical deal for Fowler is from ages 31-34. If you did sign Fowler for $65 million (and I think he probably gets more like $75 million), the delta cost wise is $37 million, and Eaton probably outplays Fowler by seven wins over the course of the next four years, which adds another $50-$55 million of opportunity cost to the balance sheet. Younger, cheaper, and better adds up quickly.

But you still have Giolito and Lopez (Dunning might develop, but he's more fungible) and whatever value they possess. Neither has a clear path to significant time in Washington if all goes well, so they'll be traded anyway. To make up for what you lost both in increased payroll and decreased production by the Fowler signing, you have to get someone who will give you $87 million of production over the next four years (over and above the production you're currently getting from that position). That's about three wins a year, and realistically, the only two other positions you can eke out a three win upgrade on the Nationals this year by dangling the two as prospects are 1B and LF. Zimmerman and Werth are untradeable (10/5 on a contender, if nothing else) and making $35 million. The sunk cost fallacy makes you act stupid, but realistically, the money men aren't letting you bring in another large salary so that you can sit one of your fading "stars". Your rotation is full up right now and trading a top shelf prospect for a closer is iffy, so all you can really spend Giolito and Lopez on is a cost-controlled batter worth 3 or more WAR per season anyway.

Someone like Adam Eaton.

[Atocep]

Makes sense, I still question paying for Eaton's value in right and moving him back to center. Nearly half of his value was tied to the position switch because he became one of the best right fielders in baseball.

He fits the bat the nationals need and isn't awful in center. It's just that he's probably a 3-4 win player there instead of a 5-6 win player.

I definitely like the move from the White Sox perspective. I'm more up in the air on the Nationals side of things simply because they plan on taking one of the best right fielders in baseball and moving him to center.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by stevew

Chapman to the Yanks for a ton of money(5/86)

With the new CBA and the penalties for being in the luxury tax this deal is crazy. Relief pitchers on 3 year deals are a huge risk. 4 year deals have a horrible track record. A 5 year deal?

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

With the new CBA and the penalties for being in the luxury tax this deal is crazy. Relief pitchers on 3 year deals are a huge risk. 4 year deals have a horrible track record. A 5 year deal?

They think they'll be below the major penalty threshold prior to 2018 free agency and can then better afford to splurge on Harper, Machado, Kershaw, Harvey and every other big name FA that will most likely just end up resigning with their own teams instead.

(except Harvey, of course)

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Makes sense, I still question paying for Eaton's value in right and moving him back to center. Nearly half of his value was tied to the position switch because he became one of the best right fielders in baseball.

He fits the bat the nationals need and isn't awful in center. It's just that he's probably a 3-4 win player there instead of a 5-6 win player.

I definitely like the move from the White Sox perspective. I'm more up in the air on the Nationals side of things simply because they plan on taking one of the best right fielders in baseball and moving him to center.

I would much rather try Harper in CF at this point, if not just giving that spot to Brian Goodwin and making Werth a part timer with Harper in LF.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by Logan

They think they'll be below the major penalty threshold prior to 2018 free agency and can then better afford to splurge on Harper, Machado, Kershaw, Harvey and every other big name FA that will most likely just end up resigning with their own teams instead.

(except Harvey, of course)

Harper is going to get his $400 million and he's not going to get it in DC.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

Harper is going to get his $400 million and he's not going to get it in DC.

He'll get it from whatever team has already given up several top prospects/MLB guys for him. There's no way Washington can let him walk to FA for...what's it now?...a second round pick?

[MrBug708]

Jansen is going to get about 70 to 75 now

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Logan

He'll get it from whatever team has already given up several top prospects/MLB guys for him. There's no way Washington can let him walk to FA for...what's it now?...a second round pick?

He's have more value for a Washington playoff push IMO

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by Logan

He'll get it from whatever team has already given up several top prospects/MLB guys for him. There's no way Washington can let him walk to FA for...what's it now?...a second round pick?

The Lerners won't spend the money for a guy who has 1 great season. If he puts up a season like 2015, then maybe it happens, but otherwise he's gone. He's a guy with WAR of 1.0, 9.9, and 1.6 over the last 3 years. He's also a guy who misses a decent chunk of games. 10 years/$400 million isn't happening in DC unless he shows that 2015 wasn't an aberration.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Makes sense, I still question paying for Eaton's value in right and moving him back to center. Nearly half of his value was tied to the position switch because he became one of the best right fielders in baseball.

He fits the bat the nationals need and isn't awful in center. It's just that he's probably a 3-4 win player there instead of a 5-6 win player.

I definitely like the move from the White Sox perspective. I'm more up in the air on the Nationals side of things simply because they plan on taking one of the best right fielders in baseball and moving him to center.

They could always move him back to a corner in a year once Werth's contract is up. I'd even agree with platooning Werth this year, but that just leaves Espinosa in the lineup and Dusty would never go for it anyway. How crazy would it be to try Harper in CF? Half the issue in center is getting reads off the bat, especially if you have someone like Eaton in RF who has extra range.

[ISiddiqui]

I think both the Eaton and Sale trades were win-win, and it's incredible to see the stockpile of young talent that the White Sox were able to gain from those two trades alone.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

They could always move him back to a corner in a year once Werth's contract is up. I'd even agree with platooning Werth this year, but that just leaves Espinosa in the lineup and Dusty would never go for it anyway. How crazy would it be to try Harper in CF? Half the issue in center is getting reads off the bat, especially if you have someone like Eaton in RF who has extra range.

Harper played 92 games in CF in 2012 and his UZR was 10.4. I'm not sure why they went for a CF last year instead of moving him there and trying to find another corner OF. Harper took to CF better than he did RF where he was a negative until last season.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

He's have more value for a Washington playoff push IMO

As a Mets fan, please let this be true. I'll allow Washington their best shot at one title if it means them passing on the haul of all prospect hauls that can keep them competitive for another decade.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

The Lerners won't spend the money for a guy who has 1 great season. If he puts up a season like 2015, then maybe it happens, but otherwise he's gone. He's a guy with WAR of 1.0, 9.9, and 1.6 over the last 3 years. He's also a guy who misses a decent chunk of games. 10 years/$400 million isn't happening in DC unless he shows that 2015 wasn't an aberration.

Definitely agree with this and it's why I find the numbers being thrown around a little funny at the current time.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I think both the Eaton and Sale trades were win-win, and it's incredible to see the stockpile of young talent that the White Sox were able to gain from those two trades alone.

I wonder what Abreu is worth. If the WS are selling, may as well empty everyone.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Logan

As a Mets fan, please let this be true. I'll allow Washington their best shot at one title if it means them passing on the haul of all prospect hauls that can keep them competitive for another decade.

The prospects for one year of Harper is the problem. He won't sign an extension and trading him mid season costs a draft pick. Yes they could get some good prospects but not at the expense of a good playoff run with him

[Young Drachma]

Wonder if Bautista and/or Encarnacion end up taking 1-year deal(s) back in Toronto if field interest isn't where they want it to be. One last go at bringing the band back together.

That team isn't a title team, but..with those guys in the lineup (Especially Edwin) they're better than if not. I guess we'll see. Shapiro and Co., are clearly good at what they do, even if I dislike their approach, but I just don't want to endure a slow dismantle followed by middling years because the AL East isn't the Central, can't fluke into a title there.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Logan

Definitely agree with this and it's why I find the numbers being thrown around a little funny at the current time.

Add me to this list. People are acting as though Harper is Mike Trout. Don't get me wrong, in 2015 this guy was amazing. He was sensational. He's still ridiculously young and his power projects to get even better as he hits his prime.

But it's not like we can forget last year happened, can we? His BABIP went down, but so did his hard contact. The guy is a great player and I fully expect him to figure it out and become a big time player again quickly. Even with that, he's had issues with injuries and it'd be kind of nice to see a second monster year before we start talking about 400 million dollar deals.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

The prospects for one year of Harper is the problem. He won't sign an extension and trading him mid season costs a draft pick. Yes they could get some good prospects but not at the expense of a good playoff run with him

That assumes that they're in contention at the deadline in 2018. I mean, they have the talent to assume they will be, but injuries are a thing, people can regress, another team in the division could catch fire and run away with things, etc.

I don't envy them their position, though. They're going to catch shit no matter how they handle this unless Harper decides he really likes it there, or Lerner decides to offer him the Stanton.

[stevew]

Given that Harper is 26 years old when he hits free agency, he's virtually a once in a lifetime buy in that market and i don't see how he isn't worth a significant flyer.

[stevew]

Then again, Machado is as well. I could see tying up close to a billion dollars on both of them as a legit strategy.

[MizzouRah]

Cardinals get Fowler.. THANK GOODNESS! Now, can we get Justin Turner at 3rd base?

[Arles]

5-years, $82 mil isn't awful. I'd rather have done 4, but it sounds like 5 was needed to get the deal done. And I'd rather have Fowler at $16 mil per for the next 5 years than Heyward at $23 mil per for the next 7 (or Jon Jay at $8 mil). We also didn't have to gut the farm system to land him - so I think it's a solid deal.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Arles

5-years, $82 mil isn't awful. I'd rather have done 4, but it sounds like 5 was needed to get the deal done. And I'd rather have Fowler at $16 mil per for the next 5 years than Heyward at $23 mil per for the next 7 (or Jon Jay at $8 mil). We also didn't have to gut the farm system to land him - so I think it's a solid deal.

Yeah.. at this point, you have to take that deal.