06-26-2008, 10:25 PM | #1351 |
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As for why the switch came so late, I wanted to see if anyone would try to save him at the end. If I had waited to vote for EF until after GE voted CR, I would have voted CR instead to make it a closer race, but probably still switched to BK.
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06-26-2008, 10:25 PM | #1352 | |
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Quote:
Sorry. |
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06-26-2008, 10:53 PM | #1353 |
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Join Date: Apr 2008
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I think this is right:
Danny (1) - Lathum (1256) Telle (4) - Passacaglia (1268), GoldenEagle (1273), oliegirl (1274), LoneStarGirl (1305) Saldana (2) - Alan T (1281), claphamsa (1291) Oliegirl (2) - Danny (1282), EagleFan (1311) Passacaglia (2) - Telle (1316), saldana (1340) LoneStarGirl (1) - PackerFanatic (1319) |
06-26-2008, 10:56 PM | #1354 | |
College Prospect
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Quote:
I've got generic 'wolfdar' feelings about both saldana and telle, but nothing tooo strong. Can you recount your argument against saldana one more time please? Restating the argument against Telle is for someone else to do I suppose... |
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06-26-2008, 11:00 PM | #1355 | |
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Quote:
I have pretty big issues with how Lathum and Saldana interacted in day 1 which I recapped early this morning in some of my posts that I went over various comments I had. The biggest problems had to do with inconsistencies with how they played off of each other during the day. Then it has slowly been a list of various actions since that time that just helped enhance the wolf feelings I am getting from Saldana. This on top of my day 1 comment that I felt Saldana was a very possible choice for Hoops to have made for a cunning wolf. While everyone else came up with other possibilities when trying to get into Hoops' mind, Saldana seems to me to be the most likely choice. That said, while I have my vote on Saldana currently I do concede that we might learn the most from a lynch of Telle today however, which is why I said earlier that I can understand that vote. A Telle lynch could possibly tell us more about Lathum, Goldeneagle, Passacaglia and possibly others. |
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06-26-2008, 11:12 PM | #1356 | ||||||
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Quote:
People are really missing this point with regards to how Telle voted. The wolves couldn;t have known anything at that stage. as the lynch and kill were simultaneous. Quote:
I'm having a huge problem with the "hemust have chosen one girl" crap hopps isn't a moron, he would not have done anything we think would be obvious. If you REALLY want to push for Pass then please do so. I am. Quote:
I'm inclined to agree that Olie deserves a real good look at this point. I'm getting tingly sensations and its not just because she's a hottie. Quote:
Quote:
I'm all but certain you're wrong on at least two of those. Quote:
I read this and go WTF??? you're blatantly asking that someone under a lot of suspicion NOT explain why they did something? Alan thats just ludicrous. I was on Lathum pretty hard Day 1, at this stage I'm giving him a pass because even if he is the fake seer he's still a villager. If he's fooling us then I'll bow down and kiss his grimy paws after the game. The entire argument on Telle is wrong, it doesn't stand up to ANY real logic. The wolves couldn;t have known anything at the point Pass is pushing on Telle so we can't deduce anything from that, Pass is also doing the exat same thing Telle did and saying she must be a wolf for doing so. its utter crap. Smoke and Mirrors. I've got nothing on Saldana at this point. I think Hoops would have taken one or the other of he and Lathum and at this point that points me at Sal as a possible wolf more than lathum. So my choice is between Saldana and Passacaglia tonight and based on the style of play thus far and the unsupported push on Telle, I have to: VOTE PASSACAGLIA |
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06-26-2008, 11:26 PM | #1357 |
High School Varsity
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I can't believe how poorly this is going, we lost our Spy and our BG in one night?
We need to put our Seers to work and try to figure out how we can take advatage of both roles. Maybe if we're lucky the fake seer only scans opposite. Can we somehow synchronize the scans? |
06-26-2008, 11:53 PM | #1358 |
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The votes for Telle, or at least the explanations for them, seem full of holes. Maybe the wolves didn't kill Lathum, not because he's the fake seer, but because he has enough heat on him as it is. Why remove a good distraction?
Saldana on the other hand seems unsure of who's side he's on. The vote for Alan was only self preservation, Cultist perhaps? VOTE SALDANA |
06-27-2008, 12:48 AM | #1359 | |
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Quote:
I don't recall if you said that or not. If you say you did, I believe you. I didn't research it, just gave an impression. But my impression ran from what I believed to be a number of posts suggesting this rule limitation, not just one person such as yourself. I was just saying that, if perhaps people had gotten the wrong idea, wouldn't the wolves want to encourage that idea? And thinking it was a general impression that might have been fostered by a few individuals, not just you. Really, I think I only recall you in that discussion until you started to question if we were reading that wrong. That's not a bad thing for you, but a good thing (as you would be the person to challenge that false impression).
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06-27-2008, 12:50 AM | #1360 | |
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Well, at least we're not crazy. Probably not some evil wolf mastermind plan then.
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06-27-2008, 01:03 AM | #1361 | |
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No my math was right. I just interpreted "roled player" differently than you. I thought you meant "roled player" as in "any player with a role", not as I think you now mean, "these two specific roles (seer/BG)". With my definition, as you know, there are far more roled players than non-roled players (including wolves).
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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06-27-2008, 01:04 AM | #1362 | |
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Quote:
Heh...Pass got it.
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06-27-2008, 01:09 AM | #1363 |
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As of post 1362
4 Telle: Passacaglia (1268), GoldenEagle (1273), Oliegirl (1274), LoneStarGirl (1305) 3 Saldana: Alan T (1281), Claphamsa (1291), Mrs. Schmidty (1358) 3 Passacaglia: Telle (1316), Saldana (1340), RendeR (1356) 2 Oliegirl: Danny (1282) EagleFan (1311) 1 LoneStarGirl: PackerFanatic (1319) 1 Danny: Lathum (1256), |
06-27-2008, 01:11 AM | #1364 | |
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LSG: Thinks voting 12+ hours B4 deadline is "late" PackerFanatic: CR is bothering me. Render: Spidey sense lol...at least give me something to respond to. I feel like I am being gang-tackled here by shadows.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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06-27-2008, 01:17 AM | #1365 | |
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Ahh, yes, the knowing looks across the table. Those awkward pauses. Yeah, that would be pretty funny.
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06-27-2008, 01:21 AM | #1366 | |
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Quote:
Not yet voted: McCollins Chief Rum SnDvls Schmidty |
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06-27-2008, 01:35 AM | #1367 | |
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Am I the only one thinking KWhit made a huge reach with that theory and made too big a deal out of it? Sorry, I just don't see both Poli and hoops leaving a strong player like Lathum out there to the last pick. There is a logical sense to it, yes. But that completely ignores that both Poli and hoops know how much value Lathum can bring to a game and that they would have to resist the emotional pull to pick him for 20 picks. Frankly, the theory of Poli using Lathum's rep as a way to kill off the fake seer has a lot more logical traction with me than KWhit's theory.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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06-27-2008, 01:43 AM | #1368 | |
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EF threw out a similar sort of ratio in a different context, but the math remains the same. Grab any six players--the chance of there NOT being a wolf in the group is less than 1 in 5. And besides, it is a losing strategy to gun after six particular players and risk going five nights without a wolf kill while the wolves are out there killing every night. All that said, I think there is value in trying to guess hoops' intent, and would agree with the group of six suggested as his likely targets (and with picks 7-9 as well). The big issue I have is this: hoops knows we know this. He knows we'll think this and try to reconstruct his draft. And he's exactly the sorta guy to throw curveballs at us for just that reason. In fact, I am wondering if he put together a draft list, and then just chose in reverse.
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06-27-2008, 01:44 AM | #1369 |
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Actually, yeah, DT's a good choice, too. Frankly, we have a very strong field for this game. Even the newer players we have seem to me to have "gotten it" pretty quick and are playing well.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
06-27-2008, 01:46 AM | #1370 | |
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Quote:
Okay, really, I am posting as I progress. I wasn't trying to be repetitive.
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06-27-2008, 01:54 AM | #1371 |
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I am encouraged by this line of thinking on Telle. There seems to be some logicial inconsistency to her votes, although I can't say without looking closer that she's the only one, considering we had lots of Lathum voters yesterday and seem to have a fair amount of BK voters today. Of course, this is still pre-deadline, so I assume much has changed.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
06-27-2008, 01:58 AM | #1372 |
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That also gave him a reasonable excuse to avoid being part of the lynch, like an "excused" throwaway vote (re: sal's vote on alan t).
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06-27-2008, 02:04 AM | #1373 | |
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Yup, and one other aspect of it is that if it suggests he has a major role, that probably piques the wolves' interest, too. After all, the vote trigger only stops most of them. There is a wolf out there that is unstoppable, so not an especially strong plan, perhaps.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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06-27-2008, 02:10 AM | #1374 | |
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Quote:
I would ask you for a reason, but no one else gave one, why you should you?
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06-27-2008, 02:23 AM | #1375 | |
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Quote:
Interesting that Telle and Pass are the only Day 1 Lathum voters to go against their votes there by voting BK on Day 2, and then going at loggerheads with each other over it. I would suggest the possibility that two wolves might be playing each other up to get one in the COT, but A) I don't believe it; and B) the last time I suggested a far reaching wolf conspiracy, Pass lit up at me.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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06-27-2008, 02:26 AM | #1376 | |
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Hmm...not bad. My main quibble, though, is they would have guessed DT was indeed the BG, since they knew he wasn't the wolf, and they are more likely to go after the sure BG than the not sure seer, I think. Other than that, it's not altogether out of the question.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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06-27-2008, 02:38 AM | #1377 | |
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See, here's the problem I have with this line of questioning. It's not that you're wrong, or that Alan didn't perhaps make a questionable move there. It's that he is, no matter what, almost essentially cleared, and I only say almost because in a metaphysical sense, no one is cleared until they're dead or the game is over. So I ask you, what's the point in pursuing thing line? I don't see how it brings us closer to finding a wolf.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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06-27-2008, 02:42 AM | #1378 | |
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Quote:
This seems like backtracking. Like I said to sal, Alan, I don't see you as anything but what you say you are, but doing things like throwing away your vote and backtracking on Lathum inside of a page of posts can only confuse us and help the wolves. Not trying to discourage you from your active posting ways, but just letting you know there is the possibility you could unintentionally throw us off with stream of consciousness posting, given your current role as the sole member of the COT.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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06-27-2008, 02:47 AM | #1379 | |
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Quote:
lmao...I think I'll just accept it now. Clearly I should change my screen name to Default Fallback Vote.
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06-27-2008, 02:49 AM | #1380 | |
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Quote:
Well, at least you switched. And you make sense here, too, assuming Telle is a villager. I am not ready to make that assumption, though.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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06-27-2008, 02:54 AM | #1381 | |
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Quote:
QUESTION FOR CRONIN Are there any roles in this game that are not listed in the rule set?
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06-27-2008, 02:56 AM | #1382 | |
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Still not getting Lathum there. I can buy the other two, though.
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06-27-2008, 03:12 AM | #1383 |
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All right, finally caught up. Took me 20 minutes just to read through my own posts at the end (j/k...).
I am WAY past my bed time, and I have to vote. I have a lot of questions out there for saldana, but I'm getting more of a "I don't get why he's doing this vibe", than a wolf vibe. It's sorta like with Lathum on Day One. Didn't understand why he made the decision he did, but thought he was telling the truth (and I still do). I think saldana would be an excellent choice to scan, though. That puts it to Pass and Telle. I suggested the possibility of a two-wolf set up, but I actually think that's pretty unlikely. It's far more likely they are on opposite sides, so I figure pick one and see what comes up. Pass's vote timing on Day One makes more sense to me, but that is countered by his decision to essentially ensure BK's death. But I think BK was already a likely goner, and it's personally hard for me to ignore that Pass did not choose to vote me. In my mind, he has made some questionable moves, but they are more in a "Alan locking in" way (an old villager Alan trait) then a wolf way. So I am going to go the other way. See this less as a vote for Telle and more a vote against voting for Pass. VOTE TELLE
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
06-27-2008, 06:02 AM | #1384 | |
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Quote:
really, the only reasoning i had was that i didnt like the vote for barkeep and you are one person that I can never figure out, so out of the candidates at the time, you were the logical choice for me. |
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06-27-2008, 06:15 AM | #1385 | |
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Quote:
It looks like we got this all settled, but for the record, as a wolf, I don't think I would encourage villagers to misinterpret rules. Maybe it's because when I am the GM, my games are pretty confusing, and the rules keep changing on us -- we never play the same game more than once in a row -- but I wouldn't want to win a game based on a misinterpretation of the rules. I can see it if clarifying the rule would out me as a wolf, but otherwise no. |
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06-27-2008, 06:17 AM | #1386 | |
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Quote:
FTR, Lathum's scan of Telle hasn't factored into my vote for her at all. I've already gone over how what I've done was different from Telle. If you want, I'll go over it again. |
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06-27-2008, 06:20 AM | #1387 | |
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Quote:
heh I don't remember that! Go ahead and suspect it if you like...just vote Telle first! |
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06-27-2008, 06:25 AM | #1388 |
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i hate Comcast, but RCN is too spoty on their internet...
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06-27-2008, 06:30 AM | #1389 |
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06-27-2008, 06:33 AM | #1390 |
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What more can I say to try and convince people of my villager role?
Day 1 I did not believe Lathum. Obviously a lot of other people fell into that category as well since he had a number of votes on him. After Alan's no-lynch move I took time to reflect and realized it might be smarter to back off of Lathum for a bit and see how things pan out. Day 2 I voted for Barkeep because he seemed unusually quiet to me. Obviously quite a few others got the wolfy-vibe from him as well as we ended up lynching him, with great misfortune. Today I'm voting for Pass because he's been on my ass for two days now and I'm taking that as a sign of a wolf that's trying to stir things up. Also I think it's likely that there's at least one wolf amongst the Day 1 votes for Lathum and he's in that list. |
06-27-2008, 06:44 AM | #1391 |
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Votes as of post 1390:
4 - Telle - Passacaglia (1268), GoldenEagle (1273), oliegirl (1274), Chief Rum (1383) 4 - Passacaglia - Telle (1316), saldana (1340), RendeR (1356), LoneStarGirl (1389) 3 - saldana - Alan T (1281), claphasma (1291), Mrs. Schmidyt (1358) 1 - Danny - Lathum (1256) 1 - oliegirl - EagleFan (1311) 1 - LoneStarGirl - PackerFanatic (1319) |
06-27-2008, 07:09 AM | #1392 |
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With it all tied up, I will move my vote to Telle to break the tie if need be. Of the three top vote choices, I'm ok with Telle or Saldana being lynched today. I'd rather keep Passacaglia around for another day at least.
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06-27-2008, 07:20 AM | #1393 | |
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Quote:
Any particular reason why you feel better about Passacaglia? |
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06-27-2008, 07:22 AM | #1394 |
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Not too much, it just is more of my gut feeling that no one in the game seems to like too much right now That and I previously had mentioned I think finding out if you are good or bad can help tell a few things about a handful of other players at least to my warped brain. |
06-27-2008, 07:26 AM | #1395 | |
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Quote:
Ok, so when I come out good, what's that going to tell you? And I mean this seriously. Do you see others as more good or more bad correlated with me being good? I'd like to know your theories.. maybe my vote is better put elsewhere. |
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06-27-2008, 07:34 AM | #1396 | |
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Well if you come back as good the biggest thing for me is that it obviously means that some of my theories I'm working in my head are off. I likely would have to step back and reevaluate a few people as well.. It also wouldn't look as good on Passacaglia either in my mind. |
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06-27-2008, 07:38 AM | #1397 |
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Is there a possibility that the fake seer could be given real information sometimes and fake other times? I haven't ever played with this role, and I know we don't know for sure what the fake seer gets for info - but is that a possibility?
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06-27-2008, 07:39 AM | #1398 |
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Well I am going to come back as good, so start thinking from there. Where does that lead you?
I'm obviously not liking Pass too much but I'm having trouble discerning whether or not it's because his pushiness is wolfy or because I'm taking it personally. |
06-27-2008, 07:40 AM | #1399 | |
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That is one of the possibilities that I outlined earlier in the game regarding how the fake seer might get their info. There has to be some mechanism to determine when they get correct vs incorrect info. In most games that has been using random.. Cronin already said Random is not involved in this game at all, so that is out. The only way I could see this in our current game would be a pre-defined setup of even vs odd days or something.. But I find that less likely than what is also considered a normal fake seer role of just reporting back everyone as all good. |
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