Invasion of Ukraine

[Edward64]

Wife just told me we donated some stuff (furniture, clothes) to Ukrainian refugees (?) somewhere near us via some organization. Glad we can do our little bit to help out.

It reminds me of a conversation I had with a Uber driver somewhere. He said he had volunteered to help a refugee family (I think an Afghani family) and that he would never do it again. It seemed that family was very needy and always calling on him for stuff. He said the system wasn't well setup to support them or volunteers like him that wanted to help.

I can only imagine being transplanted to the US, literally a different world, and not knowing things, processes etc. that we take for granted.

[GrantDawg]

This is such a devastating loss.

A helicopter crash killed at least 16 people in Ukraine when it went down near a kindergarten and residential building in the Kyiv region, including the interior minister & other officials. https://t.co/J1FnL31SBy

— Kylie Atwood (@kylieatwood) January 18, 2023

[Flasch186]

I’m of the opinion that the frog has been boiled well enough

It’s time we (the west) dump in all the heavy tanks and military equipment possible

The odds Russia expands the theatre beyond Ukraine in retaliation is slim to none


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[Edward64]

Germany supposedly wanting US to send Abrams before they are willing to send their Leopards is just weird. I get at the start of the war wondering if the US is all-in but it’s pretty obvious we’re all-in now.

Maybe (and probably no small part) the sins of their fathers are so deeply ingrained in their psyche? TBF Japan also has challenges there also. But time to get over it now

[sterlingice]

And now the tanks from both the US and Germany are headed to Ukraine:
US finalizing plans to send approximately 30 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, two US officials say | CNN Politics
Germany set to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Der Spiegel reports | CNN


SI

[bob]

At what point does Russia decide we aren't in a proxy war with them, but rather in a full war with them?

[GrantDawg]

When we actually invade Russian territory, and feel we are trying to comtrol them. They don't have the strength to have an actual offensive war with the West and their only real defensive option is nuclear.

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[molson]

The 20 Days in Mariupol documentary playing at Sundance right now is an incredible and brutal watch. I hope it gets a wide audience somewhere. It's about last AP crew in Mariupol during the siege - trying to get footage in hospitals and around town, and then trying to figure out how to get it out to the world. The footage from the bombed maternity ward from the early days of the war came from them.

I've seen some war documentaries and they can be compelling, but, due to the circumstances and the danger of it all, they tends to be a "let's waive this camera around as much as we can and it will tell the whole story". The editing of this documentary though, with the footage from the hospitals, the sequencing of events, cut with western broadcast coverage of what was going on (before we really knew what was going on), makes this just ultra compelling. And awful. Only faces of victims are blurred out, and some of those blurred faces belong to children days old who were killed by the Russians.

The AP crew, and so many Ukrainian doctors and nurses suddenly finding themselves to be war doctors and nurses, talked a lot about how important it was for the world to see this. And a lot of it was out there, even before this documentary. But, it wasn't out there as much as it would have been before our attention and media consumption options became so overwhelming. It is easier for Russia (or any other country) to commit atrocities in plan sight, because it's harder to get our attention I think. So, I think it is worthwhile for as many people as possible to watch this. I don't know exactly how it works, I hear news of Sundance movies being bought by Netflix or whatever, I'm not sure how this one will be distributed, or if it's out there already, or will air on PBS. (I saw it streaming from Sundance, with a few other things, from various online festival packages they sell).

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

When we actually invade Russian territory, and feel we are trying to comtrol them. They don't have the strength to have an actual offensive war with the West and their only real defensive option is nuclear.

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We've been doing proxy wars with the Soviets/Russians for 80ish years. Putin and his government just snivels and whines about it more because their equipment sucks.

[PilotMan]

I have to think, with the volume of heavy metal moving in to repel a spring offensive that Russia is both fearful of total decimation of their attacking forces and the ignorance or lack or will to accept the idea that that's even possible.

Abrams tanks are like a cheat code compared to what the Russians are currently forced to use.

[PilotMan]

dola

also we're seeing that while they may have decent equipment, they are unable to keep it operational under the pressures of every day battle. One off? Sure. Day after day and keep it running? No fucking way.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

dola

also we're seeing that while they may have decent equipment, they are unable to keep it operational under the pressures of every day battle. One off? Sure. Day after day and keep it running? No fucking way.

Maintenance has always been their downfall. Their actual equipment is pretty solid, but they are horrible at keeping it moving. I have to think has a lot to do with corruption that plaques their logistics. It is either that, or just a sheer laziness on the part of those that are assigned to the task.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I have to think has a lot to do with corruption that plaques their logistics.

Nothing a little floss wouldn't fix.

[Edward64]

FWIW I don’t see the Abrams or Leopards being that game changer. And I hope I’m wrong. The advantage in ME was there was a lot of ground to maneuver around. In Ukraine, it’s like fixed positions and can see Russian portable anti-tank weapons doing damage. Maybe not kill the tank but certainly disable them (e.g. tracks).

I think other weapon systems would be better like F-16s to establish air superiority. Definitely long range munitions and better/more drones.

But then again, if I’m in a foxhole and see an Abrams approaching my position shadowed by enemy soldiers, I’d run away.

I wonder how the Patriots are coming along and when they’ll come on-line

[PilotMan]

Six advantages. What will Leopard 2, Abrams, and Challenger 2 change for Ukraine? / The New Voice of Ukraine

[Edward64]

The Russian ‘commander’ deserter commanded 10 men initially and then more as Wagner expanded. I wish the news would stop characterizing him as a commander, prob more a glorified sargeant or at most, a platoon leader.

I don’t disagree with Joe saying no to F-16s. Just make sure the Russians don’t own the sky.

And I know Erdogan is being a dick about Sweden. But hey, those are the cards you are dealt. If I was Sweden, I’d seriously think about compromising my human rights ideals to protect/hedge my citizen’s ‘future human rights’. Swallow your pride and give him what he wants. Your citizens may bitch about it, but deep down they understand it’s worth the price of them (and their children) sleeping better at nights.

[BishopMVP]

Nah, screw Erdogan. If that's the only thing holding it up Sweden doesn't need to officially be in NATO for us to give them a promise (official or unofficial). It's not even like Russia could invade them - they're not able to do it by sea, and even though there's a land border there's just so much barren and inhospitable terrain before you get to any significant Swedish population. (LoL I'm an idiot - that's not even Sweden's border north of Finland, it's Norway.)

[Edward64]

I read somewhere the US backed guarantee for Ukraine (giving up nukes) has different words (meaning) in Ukrainian vs English. I would not trust US, NATO etc. to come to Sweden’s aid as ‘readily’ as a good old NATO membership.

NATO defending Finland will be a lot harderwithout the Swedish land mass. Sweden also has a nice Gotland island which is a strategic ‘watch tower’. Maybe the US doing more arms sale to Turkey will do the trick and after Turkey elections. Or maybe extradite them, not back to Turkey, but to the US where we promise to limit their PPK activities.

[GrantDawg]

Russia is gearing up for a offensive.

Russia is mustering its military might in the Luhansk region of Ukraine, local officials say, in what Kyiv suspects is preparation for an offensive in the eastern area in coming weeks as the anniversary of Moscow’s invasion approaches. https://t.co/0ncaJ0Ah0n

— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) February 1, 2023

[Edward64]

Saw that. Hope the Ukrainians are ready and blunt it well

[PilotMan]

I'm not sure that anyone will be caught off guard. When Russia pulled back last fall, they gave every indication that it was to regroup and resupply.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I read somewhere the US backed guarantee for Ukraine (giving up nukes) has different words (meaning) in Ukrainian vs English. I would not trust US, NATO etc. to come to Sweden’s aid as ‘readily’ as a good old NATO membership.

NATO defending Finland will be a lot harderwithout the Swedish land mass. Sweden also has a nice Gotland island which is a strategic ‘watch tower’. Maybe the US doing more arms sale to Turkey will do the trick and after Turkey elections. Or maybe extradite them, not back to Turkey, but to the US where we promise to limit their PPK activities.

If Sweden wants to be in NATO and Turkey is the only thing holding it up they will allow their territory to be used during any invasion of Finland (which will almost certainly not be happening regardless, but definitely won't once Finland is in NATO.) There is no need to give in to Erdogan on the Kurdish issue where their human rights record is abysmal.

[Edward64]

I guess no surprise there’ll be some seeking asylum but you’d think he’d do it thru Europe vs Mexico. He probably has a wild story about the trip.

Hope he has some really good stuff for us.

A Russian Jet Engineer Turned up at US Border Offering Secrets: Report

In late December, a man claiming to be a former Russian jet engineer arrived at the US southern border seeking asylum, and offering secrets about Russia's most advanced bomber in return.

The man told US border officials that he had information that their government would want, as he previously worked on advanced military aircrafts in Russia, according to a Customs and Border Protection report obtained by Yahoo News.

This included the White Swan-TU160, the largest military aircraft in Russia's arsenal.

CBP officials wrote in their report that information on that jet could be of use to the US, and that the jet is "reportedly the most advanced strategic bomber in the Russian inventory and has been also used in a tactical airstrike role in the Ukraine war."

Officials worked to verify his story, and two government officials told Yahoo News that the man's story was deemed credible and significant enough for him to be passed on to the FBI in January.

[Edward64]

If a US citizen is in Russia now, I’d think it’s because of family or business. Either way, the war & tensions are going to get worse before better. So don’t expect US to bail you out while the war is still going on.

The United States has told its citizens to leave Russia immediately, due to the war in Ukraine and the risk of arbitrary arrest or harassment by Russian law enforcement agencies.

"US citizens residing or travelling in Russia should depart immediately," the American embassy in Moscow said. "Exercise increased caution due to the risk of wrongful detentions."

"Do not travel to Russia," the statement added.

The United States has repeatedly warned its citizens to leave Russia. The last such public warning was in September after President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilisation.

And good to read the F-35 are operational.

Two Dutch F-35 fighters intercepted a formation of three Russian military aircraft near Poland over the Baltic Sea, the Netherlands’ defense ministry said late Monday.

“The then unknown aircraft approached the Polish NATO area of responsibility from Kaliningrad,” the ministry said, according to Reuters. Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave located between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic coast, which also hosts a crucial military air base for Moscow.

“After identification, it turned out to be three aircraft: A Russian IL-20M Coot-A that was escorted by two Su-27 Flankers. The Dutch F-35s escorted the formation from a distance and handed over the escort to NATO partners,” the Dutch ministry’s statement added.

[Edward64]

Remember the 35 mile long convoy that had us worried early in the war? It was more of a traffic jam.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664944

However, Putin's secrecy came at a cost. So successful was his deception, even most of his commanders did not receive their orders until 24 hours before the invasion.

On a tactical level, this left them vulnerable. They lacked food, fuel and maps. They were without proper communication tools. They had insufficient ammunition. They were even ill-prepared for the winter weather.

Kitted out with the wrong tyres and surrounded by snow, the Russians drove straight into a mud bath. Civilians close to Ivankiv describe Russian soldiers telling Ukrainian farmers to help pull their tanks out of the sludge.

Unable to progress, the Russian vehicles needed to divert to paved roads in order to avoid soft ground, forcing thousands to group into a single column.

But with limited communication between the battalions, they almost immediately converged into one almighty traffic jam.

Their navigation tools were also woefully out of date. In the year since the invasion, the BBC has continued to find maps left behind by Russian troops that date back to the 1960s and 70s. Whole towns exist now that were not on the maps that they were using to navigate. We also found semaphore flags, a vastly outdated way to communicate between units.

One successful tactic by the Ukrainian resistance was to blow up bridges and dams ahead of the convoy, thus forcing the Russians to reroute. Reliant on old maps and with limited communications back to their high command, the Russian units frequently became paralysed by indecision.

[Edward64]

Happy 1 year anniversary. Great to see Ukraine still hanging in there and western supplies still flowing.

[GrantDawg]

Tweets that didn't age well:

The nonexistent Ukrainian military has now been fighting for a year pic.twitter.com/P4tds90XFL

— Kama (@Kama_Kamilia) February 23, 2023

[flere-imsaho]

Can't lose if you don't exist, right?

[Edward64]

Reports that Poland has delivered some Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and more to follow.

I’m still not convinced that Ukraine can be effective with them but I’ve only played Squad Leader (and ASL) and remember those panzerfaust dice rolls.

So hope for some nice blitzkrieg news vs pics of destroyed $11M Leopards dead on a pock marked battlefield.

[Edward64]

My guess is China is moving closer towards Russia.

Won't be surprised if they provide (or ramp up) some military arms, equipment, parts etc. that would be hard to trace definitively back to China without some plausible deniability. I don't see Chinese fighter jets or tanks; but ammo, parts & equipment for Russia to repair their stuff.

After all, as the west is draining Russian capabilities, China can do the same to the west by prolonging the war.

China has more pros than cons in providing Russia with low level support and keeping the west distracted in a prolonged war. And I don't see that Biden can provide enough incentive to stop China from doing so.

Or in other words ... unless there are some significant Ukrainian battlefield successes (e.g. Crimea anyone?) or losses, it's going to be a long proxy war until some negotiated cease fire.

(A Putin coup or death is still a possibility, but wouldn't count on either)

[Lathum]

Eh.

America is far and away Chinas biggest customer. Why would China throw in with Russia and risk pissing off the US when it is pretty clear Russia aint winning this thing.

[Brian Swartz]

Because we've proven over and over again over decades that we won't make any meaningful response to something negative China does. Also because we are even more reliant on them than they are on us.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Because we've proven over and over again over decades that we won't make any meaningful response to something negative China does. Also because we are even more reliant on them than they are on us.

I believe Trump & Biden have made meaningful responses (relatively speaking) vs. China.

I just think China believes US/west is already pivoting economically, trade, technology-wise etc. against her (and we are), so why not help Russia some but not enough to be a pariah in the non-western world.

And the US is encroaching on China's sphere of influence with ANKUS, the Philippines military base deal, and the seemingly reinvigorated relationship with Taiwan. So the approx. $50-$70B+ spent in Ukraine is some sum less that won't be spent in APAC.

[Edward64]

It's weird some people think the Ukrainian war isn't really happening. The article lists & refutes some of their arguments (which is pretty weak).

Even the pro-Putin military bloggers and their "news" shows are saying a lot of fighting is going on (e.g. Putin doesn't want to call it a war).

It's like if you really don't believe it and want to expose the western governments to the world (and get all those subscribers & likes), buy a ticket to Warsaw, travel into Ukraine, and vlog your interviews with anyone and upload it into YT.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64789737

The first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has led to a spike in false claims about the war on social media, with some posts gaining millions of engagements.

A number of US right-wing accounts with large followings posted a series of baseless claims that suggested the entire Ukraine war might be a hoax perpetrated by Western media and governments.

And Michael Flynn, you ain't helping. I don't think Trump has even denied it.

Another Twitter influencer with 1.4 million followers claimed there was "no footage" and "no detailed updates" of the war.

That post was later shared by former US national security adviser Michael Flynn, who added: "I double dare anyone to say he is wrong."

[albionmoonlight]

I think that the war in Ukraine is happening.

[flere-imsaho]

Flynn is a traitor who should be in front of a firing squad.

[Lathum]

Trump full on acknowledges the war by claiming he could end it in 24 hours. The irony of it is people of the same political affiliation simultaneously claim it isn't happening and that if Trump was in charge it wouldn't have happened.

It is the same people who claim Covid is a hoax yet give Trump credit for the vaccine.

[jcard]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Trump full on acknowledges the war by claiming he could end it in 24 hours. The irony of it is people of the same political affiliation simultaneously claim it isn't happening and that if Trump was in charge it wouldn't have happened.

It is the same people who claim Covid is a hoax yet give Trump credit for the vaccine.

Reminds me of reading about a group that was simultaneously Holocaust deniers and selling Auschwitz Hot Sauce (or something similarly distasteful, pun unintended) online. Even the hate is incoherent.

[albionmoonlight]

Kettle logic.

"You borrowed my kettle and returned it damaged."

"No I didn't.

1. I returned it undamaged
2. It was damaged when you lent it to me
3. I never borrowed it in the first place."

[Edward64]

Russia has brought down some Ukrainian cruise missiles inside Russia.

No idea how many Ukraine has left but they should try shooting one into a big Russian city in the middle of the night (minimize any casualties) as a statement.

[Edward64]

Reminds me of some college AH wargaming overnights on a weekend, in a smaller school building (History I think), cigarettes (outside), and pop (dry county).

This really, really sounds like fun. It would be fantastic to watch replays of the actual wargaming but that'll never happen. Good to know its happening though.

Wonder if its hex based, YGIG or more RTS etc.?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/w...s-germany.html

With winter almost behind them, senior American generals hosted Ukrainian military officials this week for a set of “tabletop” exercises designed to help Kyiv map out the next stage of its battle to reclaim territory from dug-in Russian troops.

During a war-game session at the headquarters of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, the military officials rehearsed a range of options for an offensive that Ukraine’s leader, President Volodymyr Zelensky, has been telegraphing for some time.

The sessions, attended on Thursday by President Biden’s most senior generals responsible for American efforts to help Ukraine, were meant to strategize, officials said, mapping out the risks and benefits of a variety of moves that Ukraine might make against Russian positions in the coming months.

Ukrainian officials will ultimately decide which course to follow, with the American military officials described as serving like a sounding board.

Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, attended the exercises on Thursday. In discussing them afterward, he described a huge table with maps and icons and other military paraphernalia meant to represent potential battles.

“The Ukrainians are moving things around on these maps to determine what is their best course of action, and they determine the advantages and disadvantages of the risks associated,” he said. “It’s a common thing that all militaries do.”

“The most important priority the Ukrainians need right now is air defense,” General Milley said. “That is what President Zelensky has asked for

You'd think we could do more training, 4,000 seems low. But I know UK and others are big into it. So maybe its an agreed upon division of labor.

The five-week course is intended to teach Ukrainian troops how to move and coordinate company- and battalion-size units on the battlefield, synchronizing the use of artillery, armor and ground forces in what the military calls combined arms training.

The U.S. armed forces have trained over 1,000 Ukrainians since January, bringing the total trained since last February to just over 4,000 troops, senior Pentagon officials said this week.

National Guard soldiers have played an essential role in helping train Ukraine dating back three decades. Ukrainian pilots have also trained with the California Air National Guard, both in California and in Ukraine.

[GrantDawg]

I imagine the training is just for higher ranking NCO's and command staff.

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[Edward64]

Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. Should have had a full-time food taster.

Top Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov 'seriously ill from suspected poisoning'

Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov – a close ally of Vladimir Putin – is reported to be seriously ill with kidney problems amid fears of ‘poisoning’.

The fanatical pro-war zealot who has advocated using nuclear weapons against Ukraine is rumoured to have summoned a leading doctor from the United Arab Emirates because he ‘does not trust’ Moscow doctors.

Several opposition sources have claimed kidney illness accounted for Kadyrov’s surprising absence from Putin’s state of the nation speech on 12 February, and a recent ‘bloated’ appearance, as seen at a recent meeting in his palace in Chechen capital Grozny with Denis Pushilin, head of the invaded Donetsk People’s Republic.
:
:
While Kadyrov, 46, is one of Putin’s closest allies, the Chechen strongman – reportedly a father of 14 with three current wives – has strongly attacked the running of the war, especially by the Russian defence ministry and certain generals.

‘My sources say that [problems with] kidneys are a symptom of poisoning and that’s what Kadyrov is afraid of.’

Kadyrov had ‘made too many enemies among the generals who have access to the GRU’s developments.’

[Edward64]

Supposedly a kamikaze drone. In the video you can see it fly into the helmet of a Russian in a moving tank.

Reddit - Dive into anything

I'm surprised at how (seemingly) easy it was to keep up and hit the moving Russian.

[Edward64]

Well, well, well. Getting interesting.

In more normal place & time, I think we'd owe Russia an apology.

Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines, U.S. Officials Say

New intelligence reporting amounts to the first significant known lead about who was responsible for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines that carried natural gas from Russia to Europe.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Well, well, well. Getting interesting.

In more normal place & time, I think we'd owe Russia an apology.

link?

[cuervo72]

Fuck them, no we don't.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

link?

Sorry, behind a paywall so just got the heading

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/u...e-ukraine.html

[flere-imsaho]

The U.S. owes Russia an apology for suggesting they may have had a role in the pipeline attack when Russia has been gaslighting the U.S. for over 20 years, in addition to tampering with elections, waging constant cyber attacks, and assassinating people literally on our allies' soil (e.g. the UK)?

How about no.

[Qwikshot]

The only good Russian is a dead one.