WW 103? - 42 Attempts (Game Over - Conspirators Win) - Page 28

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 01:53 AM

Bah, one more thing. I should point out CR, when you say I wasn't at risk in Day 3 (you said 4, i think you meant 3) against BS, remember that Autumn pulled that vote when I had announced in the thread I would not be around for the whole night, so my vote wasn't moving. That wasn't a case of "he'll definitely move the vote in self-preservation". I don't know what that really says, if Autumn was trying to steer the voting to me and away from another villager, BS, maybe he thought I had a role or something, I really don't know.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 02:37 AM

I'm finding it hard to make a case against PB. I think I am going to eliminate him from my thinking for now.

That said, looking at Schmidty from a new perspective. Let's call it the "KWhit perspective", as in the what KWhit levied at me, could also be pointed at Schmidty, as The Jackal just pointed out.

The pivotal vote is the Autumn-saldana vote. If Schmidty's a wolf, he knows both Autumn and saldana are wolves. Schmidty and Autumn voted at nearly the same time post-wise (1157 and 1159), although I haven't checked the actual time difference. saldana had already voted--for a third candidate. Push comes to shove, if a tie looms, saldana switches to make sure there is no tie.

Now look at some other votes. Schmidty made a late switch on Day One--like The Jackal--onto DT. I called the two votes as typical of a wolf type move in my analysis, jumping on a runaway candidate to hide your vote.

On Day Two, Schmidty put a late vote on me in a close race. Of course, it was between two villagers (keep in mind, from my perspective, I know I'm a villager), and he was voting late. No matter what he would be voting for a villager late.

On Day Three, he was an early vote on a known villager in bulletsponge, although if we buy the hypothetical that Schmidty is a wolf, than The Jackal is not, so there were no wolves as real candidates this day.

On Day Four, Schmidty had the last vote on ntndeacon, another villager, although ntndeacon was a runaway at the time he had voted. So it could be another wolf hiding in a runaway (The Jackal vote came later, as an attempt to bring the vote closer and get a voting record out of it).

Unlike PB, with the early saldana vote on Day Five, or me, with Lathum not voting to save me on Day Two, there isn't a reason to think Schmidty is not a strong wolf candidate outside of that Day Five Autumn-saldana vote, the very vote we have been calling into question.

I am still leaning toward The Jackal, and my vote will stay there for now. But I would like to here from PB on all three of us, as well as hear what Schmidty has to say about his voting record. For me, at least, this is definitely not decided.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 02:39 AM

I also have a particular ping in mind with Schmidty, but it's not an evidence thing, just a gut thing, so I'll keep it to myself for now. As I said, still leaning The Jackal.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 02:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Bah, one more thing. I should point out CR, when you say I wasn't at risk in Day 3 (you said 4, i think you meant 3) against BS, remember that Autumn pulled that vote when I had announced in the thread I would not be around for the whole night, so my vote wasn't moving. That wasn't a case of "he'll definitely move the vote in self-preservation". I don't know what that really says, if Autumn was trying to steer the voting to me and away from another villager, BS, maybe he thought I had a role or something, I really don't know.

You're right, that was Day Three. Sorry for the confusion.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 07:49 AM

Jackal, my vote on Lath-dana was based on two things:
A- The Autumn run was going to carry and I wanted to make a point of where we should go next.

B- It started to bug me, even before the boxing, that Lathum made it through with no suspicion and no pressure from anyone. I thought it needed to happen.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 11:41 AM

Thoughts on what I wrote above about Schmidty, PB?

Schmidty · 10-20-2009, 11:43 AM

On my way to work and checking in. I'll be there until 5 p.m. EST, and then I go tutor at a middle school until 7 p.m. EST, so I won't be around. Talk to you guys later.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

But I would like to here from PB on all three of us, as well as hear what Schmidty has to say about his voting record. For me, at least, this is definitely not decided.

I'm still working on this but should have my thoughts up soon. Right now my vote is based on Danny's read. That doesn't mean it won't change.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Added with Saldana being bad.

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl

Day 2

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBrad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Day 3

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

Day 4

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939)

Day 5

Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum
saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157)
KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

Made some color changes for my self. Yeah, I changed me to good.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 12:16 PM

Day 4 is the key one if Jackal is a wolf. Day 3 he stays on ntn as bulletsponge is a runaway even though he becomes a mild contender for lynch. Autumn jumps on late when it is seemingly safe as Lathum will condemn bulletsponge. On day 4, with Danny's help and later mine, Jackal is able to help rush ntn as a candidate before any discussion on him gets started. CR gets it started and it has some pro-villager legs in Telle, J23, and ntn himself (as self-defense most likely). I think that two day pattern plays to me like a wolf scenario. Autumn hides a vote so if/when Jackal is found out he can say I cast the fourth vote, which made it close (but he already knew Lathum was coming up with a vote for BS) and then he avoids being brougth back up by jumping on the first bandwagon he senses.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 12:21 PM

Schmidty's votes are oddly tethered to Jackal's. Three times in five votes, Schmidty votes the same as Jackal, doing it after Jackal votes. They are tethered a fourth day, but in reverse order. Schmidty's votes lack a lot of overall effect though and in a lot of cases seem like going along with the crowd votes which can be a) an out of touch player or b) a wolf hiding. I would guess Schmidty is good because he has played UTR (which is his normal style) and his reaction to Lathum's boxing (pg. 19 maybe) while over the top, isn't who you would want to hitch your wagon to so publicly in case he is found out as bad.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 12:24 PM

CR's days are just the same as Jackal. D3/4 is pretty interesting. He votes Jackal on back-to-back days, pretty aggressive maneuver for a wolf to try and push someone out, particularly when they were pretty safe at that point. I'm more likely to believe that the wolves spread their votes out on D3, one on Bulletsponge, one on Deacon, one on Jackal so that all their bases are covered and they have the flexibility to move. So I highly doubt that CR and Autumn would be on the same candidate here. This makes me believe CR likely to be good as well.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 12:25 PM

Everything I'm looking at is pushing the Jackal angle, especially Lathum and Autumn's day 3 vote, allowing them to spread it three ways. I feel comfortable where I am at.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 12:27 PM

Interesting thoughts, PB. One comment to make right now, and that's that I wouldn't read too much into Schmidty's reaction to Lathum's boxing. Schmidty can be an emotional, outspoken individual, and that's exactly the sort of situation he would react straight to, without regard to game loyalties. My belief is he really was just flat pissed at SkyDog in that situation, and he could care less how it looked in WW.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 12:28 PM

IF JACKAL IS BAD:

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl

Day 2

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Day 3

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

Day 4

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939)

Day 5

Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum
saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157)
KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 12:31 PM

IF CR IS BAD:

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl

Day 2

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Day 3

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

Day 4

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939)

Day 5

Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum
saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157)
KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

IF CR IS BAD:

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl

Day 2

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Day 3

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

Day 4

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939)

Day 5

Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum
saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157)
KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

Fixed day 1

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 12:33 PM

IF Schmidty IS BAD:

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl

Day 2

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Day 3

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

Day 4

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939)

Day 5

Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum
saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157)
KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)[/quote]

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 12:42 PM

Although I think when CR makes his vote switch on Day 5, if he's a wolf, he kills off the most valuable wolf, the one he can still PM with. So I doubt a wolf makes this move. I would've sacrificed the one I couldn't PM with just to keep the one that can PM alive. So I would say there is a pretty good gap between most suspicious and second most on my list.

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 01:05 PM

I don't understand, PB. I don't see anything in the rules about all of the wolves not being able to PM each other.

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 01:10 PM

I honestly have no read on who the last wolf is, this sucks. I can't even really deny that the voting records frame me as the worst, without knowing CR's allegiance. So, if you're going to end up on me, fine, but it's a loss, the two of you that are villagers.

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 01:12 PM

I don't really know why Autumn pushes for a lynch on me on Day 3 if I'm a wolf. That seems crazy. Why vote for me when he could've been on BS or NTN without suspicion?

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 01:45 PM

So how do you feel about Schmidty, Jackal?

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 02:01 PM

Not sure, same argument on the Autumn vote can be applied for either of you, so that's hardly making me lean. How do you feel about his vote on you day 2? The wolves weren't pressured much early on (unless you are one, CR), so it's hard to get much from those votes.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Johann Georg Elser - A carpenter who is very good with his hands and detests the iron fisted rule of the Nazis and what he fears them to be. He has a one time ability to craft an explosive device which may (or may not) cause havoc with the Nazi party. When he decides to plant the bomb it will not go off for two nights (if he sets it on day/night one it will not go off until day/night three). There is no stopping his attack once it has begun and will still detonate if he is killed prior to the event. The device is set when he gives the order. He acts alone and does not have any affiliation with the Nazi party and thus not with the other conspirators. He wins with the conspiracy though he does not have PM rights.

Jackal, see the bolded part. This was Lathum's role.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I don't really know why Autumn pushes for a lynch on me on Day 3 if I'm a wolf. That seems crazy. Why vote for me when he could've been on BS or NTN without suspicion?

And this is what I'm wondering. There is that push and then there is CR trying to defend Autumn in the Danny-CR conversation on either D3 or D4.

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Jackal, see the bolded part. This was Lathum's role.

Ah, gotcha, my bad.

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 02:38 PM

I feel like Schmidty has been a bit quieter than usual this game. Maybe it's because he hasn't really been provoked by being voted for, not sure. I know he plays somewhat UTR, and I've seen all of his posts checking in to say when he will or won't be here.

What do we say about PB? He always has a role!

But I can't go by that, and I don't have a read on his play really either. He was UTR like in the soccer game, but I was watching him carefully as a partner wolf then and I'm not noticing the same tones.

CR has been pretty normal. Helpful, got into that spat with KWhit that I'm just going to ignore, so I don't have a read one way or the other on different play this game.

As you can see this was a "how's your gut doing?" post, that really didn't say much of anything. Good games by all, really.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 03:50 PM

I'll be honest at this point, I'm down to two of you:

CR or Jackal

Schmidty, if you're the wolf, good game but I just don't see it right now.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

And this is what I'm wondering. There is that push and then there is CR trying to defend Autumn in the Danny-CR conversation on either D3 or D4.

If you're referring to what I think you're referring to, you're making the same mistake Danny was making (and which took several posts for me to finally get through to him to understand). I wasn't defending Autumn; I was pointing out that The Jackal needed to be considered along with the three he mentioned (one of whom was Autumn).

I'll be honest, I really don't want to re-hash that because it completely mis-stated what I was doing, so please read that stretch of posts between me and Danny again if you have any questions.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I'll be honest at this point, I'm down to two of you:

CR or Jackal

Schmidty, if you're the wolf, good game but I just don't see it right now.

PB, I think you're making a mistake to not consider Schmidty. I don't know that he's the guy either, but if you use the same argument on Schmidty that KWhit applied to me, he is just as potentially guilty there, and unlike me, he has nothing to argue for him in the other votes either. At least I have the Lathum vote on Day Two, and what someone here (Jackal?) pointed out about lynching Autumn (the PM wolf) when I could have left my vote on saldana (the non-PM wolf). Schmidty doesn't even have anything like that going for him.

Not saying The Jackal ain't the one here, but I don't think the evidence exists to back your decision to remove Schmidty from consideration.

Schmidty · 10-20-2009, 05:15 PM

Just got home from work. Quickly eating some food, and I'm off to the tutoring gig.

See you guys around. 7:30 p.m. EST.

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 05:18 PM

I'll be at dinner from 7-8:30 or so, hopefully we'll all be around in the evening to hash it out.

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

so please read that stretch of posts between me and Danny again if you have any questions.

Will do, it was my plan tonight, couldn't find time to dig into that conversation at school. I'll post any questions.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 07:20 PM

On my way home. I should be around up to the deadline once I get there (ETA 5:30 or so my time).

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 08:22 PM

I'm here until the deadline, will be more active from 9-10.

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 08:23 PM

I have to implore the two villagers here that I'm not the wolf, when the game is over and we see what's happened I need to have at least tried to save my neck. Unfortunately I can't offer who it is, either.

CR, if you positively knew I was a villager, who would you vote for?

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I have to implore the two villagers here that I'm not the wolf, when the game is over and we see what's happened I need to have at least tried to save my neck. Unfortunately I can't offer who it is, either.

CR, if you positively knew I was a villager, who would you vote for?

I would vote Schmidty. I may actually vote Schmidty anyway. I know my vote's on you right now, but I am actually still quite a bit undecided.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 08:49 PM

Since I am still thinking things over, I'll undo my vote for now. No promises it's not going back on, though. Hopefully Schmidty and PB will be around.

UNVOTE THE JACKAL

PurdueBrad · 10-20-2009, 08:51 PM

Hey CR, I'm around. I re-read the section w/ you and Danny and I believe I understand the conversation.

Schmidty · 10-20-2009, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I would vote Schmidty. I may actually vote Schmidty anyway. I know my vote's on you right now, but I am actually still quite a bit undecided.

Finally back.

I really don't understand how I would be considered the best target????

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey CR, I'm around. I re-read the section w/ you and Danny and I believe I understand the conversation.

Cool.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Finally back.

I really don't understand how I would be considered the best target????

Oh, I would hardly call you the best target, Schmidty. I am just pulling back to look at things a bit more. I think in the long run, it will have to be a fairly convincing argument for me to not end up on The Jackal, but there's enough there to at least warrant a long look elsewhere.

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 09:07 PM

Really the most I can offer is the day 3 Autumn vote on me. There'd be no sense in him being on another wolf there. It wouldn't really buy trust later, based on the timing of that vote. If I was a wolf he would have avoided voting for me and it wouldn't have hurt his record.

Schmidty · 10-20-2009, 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Oh, I would hardly call you the best target, Schmidty. I am just pulling back to look at things a bit more. I think in the long run, it will have to be a fairly convincing argument for me to not end up on The Jackal, but there's enough there to at least warrant a long look elsewhere.

Ok. If you have any questions for me, ask away.

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 09:13 PM

Schmidty, why did you vote for CR on day two?

The Jackal · 10-20-2009, 09:13 PM

I'm going to stare at the vote count for the next twenty-thirty minutes to see if it reveals anything, but so far, nothing.

Schmidty · 10-20-2009, 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Schmidty, why did you vote for CR on day two?

I am going to be completely honest and say, I don't remember. I'll have to look. I've been pretty much confused this whole game. As I said a couple of games ago - There's a reason I make it to the endgame so often.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 09:16 PM

Okay, I am curious, does it say anywhere that Elser and the two PM wolves know each other. We have brought this up, but I just looked at the rules, and I didn't find it there (maybe I missed it).

I think it would be of importance if it turns out they didn't know who each other were (besides the two PM wolves with each other).

Chief Rum · 10-20-2009, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Ok. If you have any questions for me, ask away.

Why did you vote for the runaway candidate on Day One (DT) and ntndeacon (Day Four)? It's something that always looks a little wolfish to me at times (when anyone does it, not just you).

I know some runaways can't be avoided, but figured I would ask. Neither of those votes ended up runaways.

10-20-2009, 02:37 AM	#1352
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	I'm finding it hard to make a case against PB. I think I am going to eliminate him from my thinking for now. That said, looking at Schmidty from a new perspective. Let's call it the "KWhit perspective", as in the what KWhit levied at me, could also be pointed at Schmidty, as The Jackal just pointed out. The pivotal vote is the Autumn-saldana vote. If Schmidty's a wolf, he knows both Autumn and saldana are wolves. Schmidty and Autumn voted at nearly the same time post-wise (1157 and 1159), although I haven't checked the actual time difference. saldana had already voted--for a third candidate. Push comes to shove, if a tie looms, saldana switches to make sure there is no tie. Now look at some other votes. Schmidty made a late switch on Day One--like The Jackal--onto DT. I called the two votes as typical of a wolf type move in my analysis, jumping on a runaway candidate to hide your vote. On Day Two, Schmidty put a late vote on me in a close race. Of course, it was between two villagers (keep in mind, from my perspective, I know I'm a villager), and he was voting late. No matter what he would be voting for a villager late. On Day Three, he was an early vote on a known villager in bulletsponge, although if we buy the hypothetical that Schmidty is a wolf, than The Jackal is not, so there were no wolves as real candidates this day. On Day Four, Schmidty had the last vote on ntndeacon, another villager, although ntndeacon was a runaway at the time he had voted. So it could be another wolf hiding in a runaway (The Jackal vote came later, as an attempt to bring the vote closer and get a voting record out of it). Unlike PB, with the early saldana vote on Day Five, or me, with Lathum not voting to save me on Day Two, there isn't a reason to think Schmidty is not a strong wolf candidate outside of that Day Five Autumn-saldana vote, the very vote we have been calling into question. I am still leaning toward The Jackal, and my vote will stay there for now. But I would like to here from PB on all three of us, as well as hear what Schmidty has to say about his voting record. For me, at least, this is definitely not decided. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

10-20-2009, 02:39 AM	#1353
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	I also have a particular ping in mind with Schmidty, but it's not an evidence thing, just a gut thing, so I'll keep it to myself for now. As I said, still leaning The Jackal. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

10-20-2009, 11:41 AM	#1356
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Thoughts on what I wrote above about Schmidty, PB? __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

10-20-2009, 11:43 AM	#1357
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	On my way to work and checking in. I'll be there until 5 p.m. EST, and then I go tutor at a middle school until 7 p.m. EST, so I won't be around. Talk to you guys later. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

10-20-2009, 12:27 PM	#1364
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Interesting thoughts, PB. One comment to make right now, and that's that I wouldn't read too much into Schmidty's reaction to Lathum's boxing. Schmidty can be an emotional, outspoken individual, and that's exactly the sort of situation he would react straight to, without regard to game loyalties. My belief is he really was just flat pissed at SkyDog in that situation, and he could care less how it looked in WW. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

10-20-2009, 01:53 AM	#1351
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Bah, one more thing. I should point out CR, when you say I wasn't at risk in Day 3 (you said 4, i think you meant 3) against BS, remember that Autumn pulled that vote when I had announced in the thread I would not be around for the whole night, so my vote wasn't moving. That wasn't a case of "he'll definitely move the vote in self-preservation". I don't know what that really says, if Autumn was trying to steer the voting to me and away from another villager, BS, maybe he thought I had a role or something, I really don't know.

10-20-2009, 07:49 AM	#1355
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Jackal, my vote on Lath-dana was based on two things: A- The Autumn run was going to carry and I wanted to make a point of where we should go next. B- It started to bug me, even before the boxing, that Lathum made it through with no suspicion and no pressure from anyone. I thought it needed to happen.

10-20-2009, 12:16 PM	#1360
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Day 4 is the key one if Jackal is a wolf. Day 3 he stays on ntn as bulletsponge is a runaway even though he becomes a mild contender for lynch. Autumn jumps on late when it is seemingly safe as Lathum will condemn bulletsponge. On day 4, with Danny's help and later mine, Jackal is able to help rush ntn as a candidate before any discussion on him gets started. CR gets it started and it has some pro-villager legs in Telle, J23, and ntn himself (as self-defense most likely). I think that two day pattern plays to me like a wolf scenario. Autumn hides a vote so if/when Jackal is found out he can say I cast the fourth vote, which made it close (but he already knew Lathum was coming up with a vote for BS) and then he avoids being brougth back up by jumping on the first bandwagon he senses.

10-20-2009, 12:21 PM	#1361
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Schmidty's votes are oddly tethered to Jackal's. Three times in five votes, Schmidty votes the same as Jackal, doing it after Jackal votes. They are tethered a fourth day, but in reverse order. Schmidty's votes lack a lot of overall effect though and in a lot of cases seem like going along with the crowd votes which can be a) an out of touch player or b) a wolf hiding. I would guess Schmidty is good because he has played UTR (which is his normal style) and his reaction to Lathum's boxing (pg. 19 maybe) while over the top, isn't who you would want to hitch your wagon to so publicly in case he is found out as bad.

10-20-2009, 12:24 PM	#1362
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	CR's days are just the same as Jackal. D3/4 is pretty interesting. He votes Jackal on back-to-back days, pretty aggressive maneuver for a wolf to try and push someone out, particularly when they were pretty safe at that point. I'm more likely to believe that the wolves spread their votes out on D3, one on Bulletsponge, one on Deacon, one on Jackal so that all their bases are covered and they have the flexibility to move. So I highly doubt that CR and Autumn would be on the same candidate here. This makes me believe CR likely to be good as well.

10-20-2009, 12:25 PM	#1363
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Everything I'm looking at is pushing the Jackal angle, especially Lathum and Autumn's day 3 vote, allowing them to spread it three ways. I feel comfortable where I am at.

10-20-2009, 12:28 PM	#1365
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	IF JACKAL IS BAD: Day 1 KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105) Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96) Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219) Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223) DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230) LoneStarGirl Day 2 Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539) ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432) Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481) Day 3 bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738) The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723) ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690) Day 4 ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917) The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939) Day 5 Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157) KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

10-20-2009, 12:31 PM	#1366
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	IF CR IS BAD: Day 1 KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105) Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96) Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219) Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223) DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230) LoneStarGirl Day 2 Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539) ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432) Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481) Day 3 bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738) The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723) ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690) Day 4 ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917) The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939) Day 5 Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157) KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

10-20-2009, 12:33 PM	#1368
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	IF Schmidty IS BAD: Day 1 KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105) Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96) Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219) Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223) DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230) LoneStarGirl Day 2 Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539) ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432) Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481) Day 3 bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738) The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723) ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690) Day 4 ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917) The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939) Day 5 Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157) KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)[/quote]

10-20-2009, 12:42 PM	#1369
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Although I think when CR makes his vote switch on Day 5, if he's a wolf, he kills off the most valuable wolf, the one he can still PM with. So I doubt a wolf makes this move. I would've sacrificed the one I couldn't PM with just to keep the one that can PM alive. So I would say there is a pretty good gap between most suspicious and second most on my list.

10-20-2009, 01:05 PM	#1370
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I don't understand, PB. I don't see anything in the rules about all of the wolves not being able to PM each other.

10-20-2009, 01:10 PM	#1371
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I honestly have no read on who the last wolf is, this sucks. I can't even really deny that the voting records frame me as the worst, without knowing CR's allegiance. So, if you're going to end up on me, fine, but it's a loss, the two of you that are villagers.

10-20-2009, 01:12 PM	#1372
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I don't really know why Autumn pushes for a lynch on me on Day 3 if I'm a wolf. That seems crazy. Why vote for me when he could've been on BS or NTN without suspicion?

10-20-2009, 01:45 PM	#1373
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	So how do you feel about Schmidty, Jackal? __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

10-20-2009, 02:01 PM	#1374
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Not sure, same argument on the Autumn vote can be applied for either of you, so that's hardly making me lean. How do you feel about his vote on you day 2? The wolves weren't pressured much early on (unless you are one, CR), so it's hard to get much from those votes.

10-20-2009, 02:38 PM	#1378
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I feel like Schmidty has been a bit quieter than usual this game. Maybe it's because he hasn't really been provoked by being voted for, not sure. I know he plays somewhat UTR, and I've seen all of his posts checking in to say when he will or won't be here. What do we say about PB? He always has a role! But I can't go by that, and I don't have a read on his play really either. He was UTR like in the soccer game, but I was watching him carefully as a partner wolf then and I'm not noticing the same tones. CR has been pretty normal. Helpful, got into that spat with KWhit that I'm just going to ignore, so I don't have a read one way or the other on different play this game. As you can see this was a "how's your gut doing?" post, that really didn't say much of anything. Good games by all, really.

10-20-2009, 03:50 PM	#1379
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I'll be honest at this point, I'm down to two of you: CR or Jackal Schmidty, if you're the wolf, good game but I just don't see it right now.

10-20-2009, 05:15 PM	#1382
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	Just got home from work. Quickly eating some food, and I'm off to the tutoring gig. See you guys around. 7:30 p.m. EST. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

10-20-2009, 05:18 PM	#1383
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'll be at dinner from 7-8:30 or so, hopefully we'll all be around in the evening to hash it out.

10-20-2009, 07:20 PM	#1385
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	On my way home. I should be around up to the deadline once I get there (ETA 5:30 or so my time). __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

10-20-2009, 08:22 PM	#1386
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'm here until the deadline, will be more active from 9-10.

10-20-2009, 08:23 PM	#1387
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I have to implore the two villagers here that I'm not the wolf, when the game is over and we see what's happened I need to have at least tried to save my neck. Unfortunately I can't offer who it is, either. CR, if you positively knew I was a villager, who would you vote for?

10-20-2009, 08:49 PM	#1389
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Since I am still thinking things over, I'll undo my vote for now. No promises it's not going back on, though. Hopefully Schmidty and PB will be around. UNVOTE THE JACKAL __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

10-20-2009, 08:51 PM	#1390
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Hey CR, I'm around. I re-read the section w/ you and Danny and I believe I understand the conversation.

10-20-2009, 09:07 PM	#1394
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Really the most I can offer is the day 3 Autumn vote on me. There'd be no sense in him being on another wolf there. It wouldn't really buy trust later, based on the timing of that vote. If I was a wolf he would have avoided voting for me and it wouldn't have hurt his record.

10-20-2009, 09:13 PM	#1396
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Schmidty, why did you vote for CR on day two?

10-20-2009, 09:13 PM	#1397
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'm going to stare at the vote count for the next twenty-thirty minutes to see if it reveals anything, but so far, nothing.

10-20-2009, 09:16 PM	#1399
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Okay, I am curious, does it say anywhere that Elser and the two PM wolves know each other. We have brought this up, but I just looked at the rules, and I didn't find it there (maybe I missed it). I think it would be of importance if it turns out they didn't know who each other were (besides the two PM wolves with each other). __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

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