NFL 2022-23 Season Thread

[JonInMiddleGA]

Call it a hunch but I figure having a 45 y/o QB throw 109 passes (and counting) in two weeks is probably not a sign things are going well.

[miami_fan]

Not if you listen to the coaches who call in to local sports radio. According to them, the pass run ratio should be somewhere around 98.2-1.8.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I refuse to let the Lions get my hopes up.

They are doing great. My line for when to buy in is simple: win a playoff game. Don't care who it's against, don't care if you win it 3-2, don't care if you throw five interceptions in the process, just somehow, some way, win a playoff game.

It's been 30 years since that happened. I can wait one or two more if they get there again.

[Thomkal]

I'm kinda liking these new look Panthers...


And Tom Brady-please retire again and don't come back

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

They are doing great. My line for when to buy in is simple: win a playoff game. Don't care who it's against, don't care if you win it 3-2, don't care if you throw five interceptions in the process, just somehow, some way, win a playoff game.

It's been 30 years since that happened. I can wait one or two more if they get there again.

You say they are doing great. I say they are getting your hopes up. They do that. I don't want to see you hurt yet again.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Not if you listen to the coaches who call in to local sports radio. According to them, the pass run ratio should be somewhere around 98.2-1.8.

Well, he IS the career leader (by far) for most wins when throwing 50+ passes in a game, and is 1-1 in the last two weeks buuuuut ....

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Call it a hunch but I figure having a 45 y/o QB throw 109 passes (and counting) in two weeks is probably not a sign things are going well.

He might as well stick around and suck again next year. It's not like he has a family to go home to.

[Ksyrup]

Exactly my thought. Why would he retire now? Problem with going home though is that SF has 3 QBs now who are probably better than him at this point.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

What we don't see is that translating to that top fifth of quarterbacks who run the most. Maybe Hurts will be the exception. He threw some darts today. As long as he throws like that, he's elite level. How many big hits before he can't throw like that anymore?

Some interesting stuff on mobile quarterbacks and injury rates here and here and here.

I'm not sure they are as prone to injury as the perception that exists. Having said that, the data is certainly incomplete. It may also fail to take into account the cumulative effect some of the hits they take.

I think maybe the bigger issue over time is not injuries as much as it is playing style. When a player's ability is so predicated on their ability to be a rushing threat - think Allen, Jackson and Hurts, unlike say Mahomes, whose running simply compliments his passing ability - once that running ability declines and that threat disappears, it's difficult for once mobile quarterbacks to be as effective passers as they were when that running threat was present.

[miami_fan]

This is the the first time I am experiencing the Chargers having a home field disadvantage in their new stadium. I wonder how many of the people in attendance are Dolphin fans.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

Some interesting stuff on mobile quarterbacks and injury rates here and here and here.

I'm not sure they are as prone to injury as the perception that exists. Having said that, the data is certainly incomplete. It may also fail to take into account the cumulative effect some of the hits they take.

I think maybe the bigger issue over time is not injuries as much as it is playing style. When a player's ability is so predicated on their ability to be a rushing threat - think Allen, Jackson and Hurts, unlike say Mahomes, whose running simply compliments his passing ability - once that running ability declines and that threat disappears, it's difficult for once mobile quarterbacks to be as effective passers as they were when that running threat was present.

Exactly. I didn't attempt to study injury rates. Their careers are much shorter, that's all. Maybe what accumulates never amounts to what we would call an injury, or maybe it's about the running threat.

All I know is that when you look at that top fifth based on run percentage (minus kneel-downs), careers are much, much shorter. The other four-fifths, I don't see significant differences.

[Ksyrup]

Saw a Twitter thread about how, until the SF game, Tua had somehow managed to face the least amount of press M2M coverage in the league and he was shredding zone. Then SF showed how ineffective he could be if you stopped being scared of Hill and whoever else and forced Tua to make contested throws. And last night, LA copied that game plan and gave up one long TD but got the win. The results have not been pretty for Miami. Seems like the season is riding on them figuring it out.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Saw a Twitter thread about how, until the SF game, Tua had somehow managed to face the least amount of press M2M coverage in the league and he was shredding zone. Then SF showed how ineffective he could be if you stopped being scared of Hill and whoever else and forced Tua to make contested throws. And last night, LA copied that game plan and gave up one long TD but got the win. The results have not been pretty for Miami. Seems like the season is riding on them figuring it out.

I heard a commentator once talk about how there are those QBs where the conventional wisdom is to *never* blitz them b/c they will pick it apart (Brady, Brees, Manning, etc.). But what happens is that they get very comfortable picking apart zones. And that, really, you should probably keep blitzing them some. You will have the occasional play where they beat it. And you will then have to listen to all the Monday Morning Talking Heads talking about that one play and yelling "And THAT's WHY you never Blitz Tom Brady!" But, overall, you probably do better giving up that occasional play if the blitz otherwise keeps them unsettled.

This seems like the WR version of that. The conventional wisdom was that you never press Hill or Waddle b/c they will blow past you and score.

But maybe you give up the long play or two if it means that you are keeping the offense in check otherwise.

[QuikSand]

I've been mulling the Goff/Lions chatter here a while...don't think I have anything novel to add, but I will observe that it does feel like the 49ers/Garoppolo situation a bit, right? Not that the specifics of that play-out ought to guide it, but... yeah, that team does feel like it's in "good fit" decent hands now, but with a young capable guy with an even higher upside they could really be set for both the short and medium term.

[Ksyrup]

If I was the Lions and I thought Goff could get us to the playoffs, I would think about taking a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round, but I would use #4 and 15 (as it stands today) to add some potentially crucial pieces to an already promising team. I certainly wouldn't use #4 on a QB at this point, unless they expect to move on from Goff in short order.

[QuikSand]

Goff costs $20m next year, IIRC... and is not guaranteed, I believe. That fits in with this equation. That $ could land you an impact defender or two solid starters.

[Bobble]

There's a lot of good discussion on whether Goff is the latest version of Trent Dilfer/Joe Flacco, a guy who won't win a Superbowl unless the entire rest of the team is amaze-balls and maybe the Lions should thank him for his service, drop him, and grab a great young QB while they have the picks to do it. Seems to me that the Lion's long-term lack of success should inform that decision. Should they (to mix sports) swing for the fences trying to get that grand slam or make sure they can bloop in a single with these bases loaded to get, what for the fans and probably ownership, would be a game winner by "only" building a playoff-caliber team rather than a Superbowl juggernaut or bust?

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Goff costs $20m next year, IIRC... and is not guaranteed, I believe. That fits in with this equation. That $ could land you an impact defender or two solid starters.

Dola: The money is a good point. Not everyone online seems to understand that but I know the sports management simmers on here get it. Personally, I don't think the money you'd pay Goff is an albatross. You will have a lot of good players on rookie contracts along with these extra high round picks to ease your financial burden. You can "overpay" (is it, really?) Goff to ensure that you have good but maybe not Top 5 QB play.

[Ksyrup]

If Goff finishes this year the way he's going now, I don't see how they can't be all-in on him for at least 2023. If you're looking to do a post-mortem after 2023 of "where things went wrong" if the Lions crash and burn, I'd rather be on the side of justifying a vet QB on a 1-year deal who had shown signs the previous year of putting it together than gambling on a rookie to make an immediate impact on a team on the rise.

[albionmoonlight]

$20 million isn't bad at all for a starting QB in 2022.

If you are the Lions and a QB you love falls to you at whatever the Rams pick ends up being, then you draft him and don't worry about Goff. Having too many good QBs is a good problem to have. You can afford Goff at $20 plus a rookie salary.

If, however, Baker Mayfield (!?) ends up leading the Rams to some late season wins, and the pick falls into a range where the Lions would have to trade it with significant assets to grab a top QB, then that becomes a REAL hard choice.

I also can't help but think that if things are close, Dan Campbell would prefer to go with Goff because making a winner out of the cast-off QB whose former team couldn't wait to get rid of him is on-brand with the culture that Dan Campbell wants to create.

[Ksyrup]

The Lions own 2 1sts and 2 2nds (Rams 1st and Vikings 2nd). They certainly have the flexibility to pick up an impact player plus swing a trade for a QB, it seems like.

[miked]

I mean, he's a top 10 QB this year with other teams' castaways at WR. I don't think the Lions are a playoff contender with CJ Stroud replacing Goff. Why waste draft capital on trading for a QB that is unlikely to be better. It would seem they could move down, pick up a bunch of picks for this year or next, and wait to see what happens with Goff next year.

Unless he poops the bed the rest of this season, then the answer is there.

[Ksyrup]

I guess the question is whether this is the year to use the surplus picks to plan for the future. Certainly, they have to be straddling both sides of the "win now" and "QB of the future" fence if they go for a QB - they can't just act like they are in rebuild mode.

[Bobble]

Looks like Goff is a ~$30M cap hit for 2023 and 2024. While his $30M is #4 for QBs today, that should move down the list the next two years. That's probably about where he should be paid, below the Tannehill/Cousins range.

[bhlloy]

I think if you take a shot at a QB with the "free" pick, you roll the dice that you take Levis and get the next Allen or Herbert. Even better if you sit him behind Goff for a year.

Even if it's only at best a 25% chance you get a game changer I think you take that shot with the knowledge that you will still get a pretty damn good defensive player in the middle of the round. Although if Jalen Carter is there that's also mighty tempting to put him next to Hutchinson for the next 7-8 years as well I guess.

[Solecismic]

It's very difficult to evaluate what you're getting with Goff. Perhaps that was McVay's frustration.

I prepare these from time to time. This one is updated through last week. It's basically my quarterback metric with some additional information.

What stands out to me is the depth of the cycles in this chart. The orange line is a nine-game trendline, and it ranges from "really shouldn't be starting in the NFL" to top tier. You don't see that elsewhere, at least not with multiple cycles like this.

It's almost like he takes months off. You get this year's Goff, and he's a guy who can win, even in the playoffs. You get last year's Goff, or a couple of his seasons in Los Angeles, and he's actually hurting your team. It's more evident in this chart than in his season numbers, because he was pretty good second half of 2019 into early 2020, and then pffft.

Maybe he's someone who doesn't always buy into the plan. I wish I knew more. These charts tell stories, and they're often a lot easier to read.

He could be a bargain - a close-to top-tier guy - for $30.65 million next year and $31.65 million in 2024 ($10 million of that is guaranteed). Or he might kill the Lions. And I'm not sure the Lions get to choose which. They can win with Goff. Or maybe not. Shrodinger's Lion there.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I prepare these from time to time. This one is updated through last week. It's basically my quarterback metric with some additional information.

FWIW, I didn't see the image until I replied and then saw a link to the image in IMG tags.

Is this like's baseball's 20-80, 50 = average, every 10 is 1 standard deviation scale? What's a Pro Bowl QB kind of score, 60?

[QuikSand]

Doesn't it just feel like Goff is (ironically) like Wentz, who needs pretty good protection to be effective, but with it he can play well above replacement level? Feels like that tracks with the Rams (who have had major injury-driven OL inconsistency over McVay's time there) and now with the Lions and a rather solid OL.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Bobble

Is this like's baseball's 20-80, 50 = average, every 10 is 1 standard deviation scale? What's a Pro Bowl QB kind of score, 60?

The goal of the metric is to provide maximum correlation between a quarterback's statistics, by game, to winning games. It has worked out that the NFL average is 51-52. Each season's base is a little different, in order to incorporate league trends.

So you see a guy at 51.5 and seven years in the league and you would say "maybe this guy can get a good team to the playoffs, but he's not going to win." But that's not Goff.

For a season, an average north 56 is elite, 60 is MVP territory. Hurts was at 58.6 going into this week (Tagovailoa 59.0, Mahomes 57.4, Geno Smith 58.8 among top scores). Goff was at 52.9.

I've found, through a lot of playing around with this, that nine-game trendlines are the most useful. That's about half a season. There's still a lot more fluctuation than ideal - you have to deal with game plans, variety in opponents, the skills of those around you... football is tough.

There just aren't enough significant data points. So even though football is a quarterback-driven sport - can you make a good decision in two seconds and do you have the ability to execute that decision - it's still very much a team sport.

TLR, if you see a veteran's nine-game trendline hovering around 60, you're getting quarterback play that can win you a Super Bowl. A lot of people throw Trent Dilfer's name around in this discussion. He was a career game-manager with no upside. You'd laugh at his chart if I made one for him. It's remarkable to me that he managed to win a Super Bowl, but sometimes defenses actually do win Super Bowls. It's not the norm, though.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Doesn't it just feel like Goff is (ironically) like Wentz, who needs pretty good protection to be effective, but with it he can play well above replacement level? Feels like that tracks with the Rams (who have had major injury-driven OL inconsistency over McVay's time there) and now with the Lions and a rather solid OL.

Wentz seemed promising at first, and looked like he was developing into a top-tier guy, but if you look at 2017, when he was in his second year and looking like a future superstar, a lot of that was the touchdown passes, which I think are overvalued in most rating systems because the correlation with winning is far less independent. He can't get the ball downfield consistently. His peaks are nowhere near Goff's peaks.

So if pass protection is the case, and I wouldn't rule it out, I would expect less game-to-game consistency. His trendline is far smoother, but I see him as an average-to-average-minus starter.

As an aside, watching the Bucs yesterday, it surprised me how much Brady broke down with poor pass protection, to the point where he made bad decisions in the third quarter. I hate seeing this season with him - he has been absolutely great for so long. Up until a couple of weeks ago, he was more limited than in the past, but was still making very few mistakes.

[GrantDawg]

The Falcons are starting Ridder next week, which we knew. They are placing Marriota on the IR, which we didn't. It explains the picking up of the practice squad QB over the weekend.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

WAs an aside, watching the Bucs yesterday, it surprised me how much Brady broke down with poor pass protection, to the point where he made bad decisions in the third quarter. I hate seeing this season with him - he has been absolutely great for so long. Up until a couple of weeks ago, he was more limited than in the past, but was still making very few mistakes.

We've been shown the Bucs so many times this year, I feel like I've watched almost the entire season. Early on, as you say, he was making few mistakes, but he was also throwing a bunch of balls that were not Brady - for him anyway, a bunch of missed throws. Now it's morphed into breaking down or trying too hard or whatever.

His decision to reneg on retiring is one of those decisions that is absolutely regrettable - for both him and fans. And that's before factoring in his divorce (although who knows - maybe that was a bad weekend away from ending anyway). The worst part is, it feels like he has no move to make other than double down and try it for one more year.

[cuervo72]

Not regretting him coming back at all. For me, it's been 20 years of "WHY CAN'T ANYBODY EVER PRESSURE HIM!?!?!!" Now they actually are, a bit.

I am never going to feel bad for anyone who has had that much success.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Doesn't it just feel like Goff is (ironically) like Wentz, who needs pretty good protection to be effective, but with it he can play well above replacement level? Feels like that tracks with the Rams (who have had major injury-driven OL inconsistency over McVay's time there) and now with the Lions and a rather solid OL.

Historically, kindof an Alex Smith-ish guy? Put a decent team around him and he can get you to the playoffs but no further?

SI

[Thomkal]

Great after the Cards bad season so far, it gets worse, Kyler Murray taken off the field tonight with a non-contact injury

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Pretty brutal day if you want your QB to stay healthy. I think it was almost Emergency QB vs Backup QB in Pit/Bal today

Given everything we hear about erring on the side of protecting the QB and all the soft roughing the passer penalties, how in the hell was that hit on Mike White not a penalty? I am not sure defenders are allowed to hit a receiver coming across the middle like that anymore much let a QB.

[cuervo72]

Yeah, that's it, just hold the fucking ball eight feet away from your body. GOOD THINGS HAPPEN, THEN!

[JPhillips]

Tonight RG3 learned that jigaboo isn't an innocent word.

[stevew]

Arizona running the table with losses is probably going to be in their best interest. Key games Vs Atlanta and Denver coming up. Probably can’t get into the top 3 but definitely they could drop out of the top 10.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by stevew

Arizona running the table with losses is probably going to be in their best interest. Key games Vs Atlanta and Denver coming up. Probably can’t get into the top 3 but definitely they could drop out of the top 10.

Yeah probably their coach and GM will be fired after the season, so starting with a clean slate would do better with a top 3 pick.

[Ksyrup]

Colt McCoy will outduel Russell Wilson.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Colt McCoy will outduel Russell Wilson.

Murray out for rest of season with Torn ACL

[QuikSand]

Useful link this time of year: Tankathon | 2023 NFL Draft Order

[JPhillips]

It probably won't happen as the Bengals still need to beat the Pats, Bills, and Ravens, but there's a chance they could enter the playoffs having beaten each of the other six playoff teams.

Or the Chargers could screw it up by getting in.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Useful link this time of year: Tankathon | 2023 NFL Draft Order

We need the Rams to get to into the Top 3 and stay there!

I am still pissed off about that Thursday night game. I am more annoyed about that loss than I have any of the Lions' losses this year, except for maybe the one against the Vikings in week 3.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Useful link this time of year: Tankathon | 2023 NFL Draft Order

First, sad that if the Bears win 1 game, they drop from 3rd to 6th.
And B, why are they playing the toughest schedule in the league this year? It's all the NFC East's fault. Minnesota's schedule must be cupcake soft...

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by rjolley

First, sad that if the Bears win 1 game, they drop from 3rd to 6th.
And B, why are they playing the toughest schedule in the league this year? It's all the NFC East's fault. Minnesota's schedule must be cupcake soft...

4th hardest in the NFC so far, gets easier though with Chicago, Green Bay, Indy and the Giants remaining.

[Solecismic]

Ridder will get the start, and Mariota is apparently unhappy and has "walked away" from the team. If he genuinely wants another opportunity in the NFL, I'm not sure that was a great move. And frankly, third-round draftees are 50/50 at best keeping starting quarterback jobs beyond a few games.

The loser here? Tennessee. The Falcons signed Logan Woodside from their practice squad. Woodside has been with the team for four years as their third quarterback. Given how much it appeared Malik Willis needed development time, I wouldn't have been surprised to see Woodside in if Tannehill went down in the playoffs.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by Ryche

4th hardest in the NFC so far, gets easier though with Chicago, Green Bay, Indy and the Giants remaining.

Ok, the main contributor in the Minnesota SoS is the Bears record. Not as cupcake-y as I thought...

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Ridder will get the start, and Mariota is apparently unhappy and has "walked away" from the team. If he genuinely wants another opportunity in the NFL, I'm not sure that was a great move.

Yeah, I'm not sure that's a good look for any future prospects.