Breakout Kings: Werewolf Style (Game over - village wins)

[EagleFan]

As of Post 1350:

Chief Rum 1 - Danny (1338)
Passacaglia 1 - Narcizo (1343)

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I told you I'm not lying.

Anyway, I'm not sure what you mean by the bolded part. Either of which ways?

I meant either if you're lying on your own or if both Danny and you are lying. But ok if you're not lying then is it alright if I ask you a few more questions:

Are you playing solely to win for the village or are there other factors influencing your decisions? Because, to be honest, apart from answering our questions you've not actually said anything much about anyone else. You still seem to be playing as a neutral. Admittedly Chubby and Julio haven't said an awful lot either - but you don't seem to be playing as your usual villagy self. Who do you think is the remaining wolf. If you believe/know that Danny is a villager do you think it's Chief or me?

Have you asked Eagle if you count as a villager for purposes of winning? If not, could you do so?

Have you asked Eagle if there's been some screw up with the information that's been provided to you. If not could you do so.

Cheers.

[Passacaglia]

I'm still not getting it. Either I'm lying on my own, or we're both lying? So whether or not Danny is telling the truth has no bearing on it? I don't get it. Do we contradict each other, or not?

Yes, I'm playing solely for the village. Ever since I have, there's just been two nightfall-type votes, so no reason to say much. And I always find it hard getting back in the flow when I've missed stuff.

I didn't ask Eagle, but he told me specifically that I win with the villagers, but do not count as one. I see no reason to ask him again.

I didn't ask Eagle if there was a screw up with the info he sent, but he did send me a PM on his own clarifying what he told me -- and it was the same stuff he told me before.

[Danny]

Pass, you are really blowing this game

[Narcizo]

Looking solely at voting – in order of likelihood of wolfiness in my opinion.

Danny:
- Day One: GoldenEagle lined up Danny 4:4 against DV. Very ballsy for a wolf in that situation when he could just as easily vote me. I think that alone is enough
- Day Two: Does push Julio against GoldenEagle late in the day after Bhlloy reveals. Bit of a negative.
- Day Three: Votes Britrock and helps sway the vote to make sure he gets lynched. Very positive.

Chubby:
- Day One: Votes Darth Vilus and that’s all. Neutral.
- Day Two: Keeps his vote on bhlloy despite calling out Bhlloy for having his vote on him, or something. However after bhlloy’s reveal Chubby is the person Britrock chooses to put his vote on. I think that’s probably the most telling vote.
- Day Three: Votes Chief. So a negative there.

Julio:
- Day One: He does pick up votes from villagers but he loses them from villagers again. You could argue that Britrock and Golden cement his “waning star” status but he was already losing momentum at that stage.
- Day Two: Britrock ends a mini-run on him to within one of Bhlloy. He does find an excuse to move off of him quite quickly though, after Bhlloy’s reveal took himself out of the race. If Britrock was a ballsy, experienced player you could see that as a wolf move but I’m not sure if I buy it.
- Day Three: Initially votes Chief. Moves to Britrock, but only after Bhlloy has already decided matters. Very weak positive for a very weak vote.

Passacaglia:
- Day One: Puts a second vote on Danny to “stir things up”. Drops his vote off of Danny and lays it on DV to make sure DV buys it. In character with both neutral or wolf to want to take out potential roled ahead of the presumed vanilla (me). Slight negative for voting Danny in my opinion.
- Day Two: Votes Chief in the middle of the day and doesn’t move. Pretty neutral.
- Day Three: No vote. Negative.

Narcizo:
- Day One: No wolves vote him day one when both could have, both voting for someone else with the same number of votes as me at the time (Britrock/DV – GoldenEagle/Danny). Pretty sizeable minus there.
- Day Two: Early vote on Bhlloy before GoldenEagle had emerged as a candidate. Pretty neutral.
- Day Three: Vote early Britrock. Might have seen the way the wind was blowing and tried to save either Britrock or mself by distancing us.

Chief Rum:
- Day One: Votes Danny early on and stays put. Neutral.
- Day Two: Chief votes Julio to put him tied on second place with GoldenEagle.
- Day Three: doesn’t vote. Britrock seems anxious not to vote Chief. Very negative.

So, based solely on voting record then the choice lies between Chief and me. Do I see that my day one record and Britrock’s day two votes are starting to look dodgy and create separation by voting for him. My counter argument is do I make it clear that my day one record is dubious by killing LSG and Autumn so soon? But that might have been out of my hands I have to admit.

[Chubby]

I didn't vote Chief Rum day 3, I voted CrimsonFox (sheesh nobody can hget my day 3 vote right)

[Danny]

Good summary narc. Im sticking with my chief vote

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I am a bit leery of voting for Chief at this point as well. Granted, post 386 was on the weird side, but I am inclined to look at other candidates today. Chief may be a wolf, but he is acting very strange if he is. Then again, it could be a play from a veteran to put us on second or third level thinking.

Chubby has been quiet and I will likely cast a vote for him if things remain between him and BH. Not because of his silence, but because it would be really easy for the wolves to pile votes on top of BH if we let this thing become a runaway.

CF is on my suspicion list because of his edited post. Perhaps he revealed something that was intended more for the other wolves? But that is probably not a route to go today, I just wanted to bring up that possibility.

I think a lot of people mention a wolf only to discount them when they're playing as a wolf. of dourse I would be bringing up this post if it turned out CF or Chubby was under suspicion. But you have to play with the hand your dealt.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm not wild about bhlloy or GE right now. I'm still none too sure about the bhlloy/Julio thing, and if I was, Julio as the Lemon Chiffon man would be the first target. GE seems to have just gotten votes for being combative in-game, which any long time player will tell you is essentially how he plays. I get more worried when GE is too nice, lol.

So I am going with Julio, see if JAG's theory has any weight to it.

VOTE JULIO RIDDOLS

Again, not fantastically condemning, but with the dearth of other information out there. We don't have a lot to work with.

[Narcizo]

So my gut is still saying that there's something wrong with Danny/Passa (well actually, cold hard facts are saying that there's something wrong there). I don't like the way Danny has been pushing and depushing over the weekend. But I think the basic theory that Danny is Ronnie and "cleared" Pass with the videotape story gets cut to slices on Occum's Razor. Why would he do all that instead of just using the trust he gained in lynching Britrock to steer the vote onto Chief and myself?

So if Danny is playing us I'll be very pissed off but if there's one thing I've learned playing Werewolf it's not to listen to my gut after the first three days or so.

Unvote Passacaglia
Vote Chief Rum

I still don't get the story of what's going on between Danny and Pass but if anything I'm more inclined to think that Pass has been converted by the final wolf, than that it's some sort of cunning wheeze by Danny and Pass. And if that final wolf isn't Rum then we're probably not going to lynch him anyway tomorrow. I think the chances of Rum being the last, sole wolf are greater than the chances that Pass is teamed up with anyone else (Danny included) so even if it's a bigger risk voting Rum than Pass from the point of view that if Pass is a wolf and Chief isn't then we've lost I think the evidence suggests that Rum is the most likely to be a wolf.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So my gut is still saying that there's something wrong with Danny/Passa (well actually, cold hard facts are saying that there's something wrong there). I don't like the way Danny has been pushing and depushing over the weekend. But I think the basic theory that Danny is Ronnie and "cleared" Pass with the videotape story gets cut to slices on Occum's Razor. Why would he do all that instead of just using the trust he gained in lynching Britrock to steer the vote onto Chief and myself?

So if Danny is playing us I'll be very pissed off but if there's one thing I've learned playing Werewolf it's not to listen to my gut after the first three days or so.

Unvote Passacaglia
Vote Chief Rum

I still don't get the story of what's going on between Danny and Pass but if anything I'm more inclined to think that Pass has been converted by the final wolf, than that it's some sort of cunning wheeze by Danny and Pass. And if that final wolf isn't Rum then we're probably not going to lynch him anyway tomorrow. I think the chances of Rum being the last, sole wolf are greater than the chances that Pass is teamed up with anyone else (Danny included) so even if it's a bigger risk voting Rum than Pass from the point of view that if Pass is a wolf and Chief isn't then we've lost I think the evidence suggests that Rum is the most likely to be a wolf.

Your recent run of analysis and posts makes me think we've got this won today with the Chief vote and definitely makes me feel better about you.

And FWIW, I took the pedal off the medal because it clearly wasn't working. I didn't want to cost the village the game by being overly aggressive.

Also, more for future reference after the game, but if I was a betting man, i would bet Pass fully well knows he has the seer ability but lied about it (and probably the fact that he claims to not count as a villager) in order to try and out survive me. I think he is convinced I have some bonus win condition for having him killed.

[Julio Riddols]

I have to say I was starting to lean away from Chief myself, but I have thought him to be wolfy for a while now and Narc's analysis seems to cement that a little. Of course Narc could just be doing one hell of a job deflecting eyes from him to Chief, but I think the likelihood of that is less than the likelihood of Chief being a Wolf. Hopefully the last wolf.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[Chubby]

Vote Chief Rum

This was the original plan and I see no reason to deviate

[Chief Rum]

You guys won't win by lynching me, but it's obvious you will do what you will do.

Sorry, Danny, I don't have Internet at my place right now. I can only log on at work, when I should be working, or at Starbucks or some other Wifi place, where I am always trying to do a million online things at once that I could once do at me leisure from home and over a long period of time. So I can't afford to do the kind of analysis you want me to do to "prove" I'm not a wolf. Nor do I have the time to respond to a cajillion posts from you over the weekend.

So you guys do what you will. Nothing I say is going to change that. Good luck Wednesday when you're still looking for that last wolf.

[Danny]

In the event we are wrong here and I am night killed. I know Pass is 100% villager. DO NOT VOTE HIM.

[LoneStarGirl]

I can edit because I'm not playing

[Danny]

Opps deadline is not until tomorrow lol

[EagleFan]

LoneStarGirl has been reinstated into the game....

[EagleFan]

LoneStarGirl has been struck down by the WW Gods. She is no longer back in the game.

[EagleFan]

As of Post 1368:

Chief Rum 4 - Danny (1338), Narcizo (1359), Julio Riddols (1361), Chubby (1362)

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

In the event we are wrong here and I am night killed. I know Pass is 100% villager. DO NOT VOTE HIM.

The only way Pass can be a wolf is if you're lying so I agree that lynching Pass tomorrow, if we and he are still playing, would be stupid. Unless Chief is a wolf and we're still playing in which case not lynching Pass would be idiotic.

I don't have Danny's confidence about Chief/me being the last wolf but that's because I have the advantage of knowing that one of us is a villager. I won't be around tomorrow as I'm flying up to Stockholm to watch Mrs Nark in a TV show (one of these make-over thingys) so I'm afraid you won't be getting much of a defence from me. So let's hope Chief is the wolf.

[Autumn]

I think I'm the wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Got my PM last night right when I was laying down to go to bed. Thought about getting up and joining the conversation then I remembered Crimson would probably be the only one still here talking to himself. So I went back to sleep.

Just starting to read along now, but this comment is terrific

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

Me too Jag, We need an Avengers game

The next time I have a three week vacation from work I promise to run an Avengers game.

Of course, I can't remember the last time I had a three week vacation so that might be a complicating factor. But I really would love to run another Marvel-themed WW game at some point. Just don't know when I would have the bandwidth to do it.

[Narcizo]

Vote nightfall

I'm out.

[Narcizo]

Except to say to Danny that if this one time, when I finally vote the reasonable and logical way, it turns out that I should have listened to my gut, one day, one day it will come back to haunt you. Maybe we will be wolves together and I will start trying to signal to an imaginary sorceror. Maybe we'll be villagers together and I vote you because I work out a scenario that could, conceivably, occur once every century or so.

And then you'll be sorry.

[Autumn]

No maniacal laugh?

[EagleFan]

Crickets chirping in here today.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Crickets chirping in here today.

I'm sure they would be doing tons of talking if they didn't have a wolf square in their sights.

Oh wait... They don't.

[EagleFan]

[EagleFan]

[EagleFan]

Amusing myself.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm sure they would be doing tons of talking if they didn't have a wolf square in their sights.

Oh wait... They don't.

I understand you are busy, but you haven't presented anything for why you shouldn't be lynched other than saying you are not a wolf. And you haven't presented anything for why someone else might be a wolf. If you do turn up villager, I won't feel bad

[EagleFan]

deadline

[Danny]

Regardless of what happens, lynching Chief was the right move.

[EagleFan]

No one argues, everyone agrees. This must be a great sign. The final Runner has accepted his fate?

You find Chief Rum, whom everyone has claimed to be Runner and do away with him.

You see that he is wearing a T-Shirt that says runners do it in under 4 minutes.

You've done it, you have caught a runner. A member of an almost cult-like group. They can be seen in parks all across the country. They try to get others to join their cult. They have yet to realize how pointless it is to just run without actually accomplishing anything in the process.

Yes, you have caught a runner, but not a Runner. Chief Rum was just a citizen that liked to jog.

Now where to turn?


Chief Rum was a citizen.

[Danny]

If the game isnt over the last wolf should come down to Julio and Narc. I think Chubby is least likely to be a wolf.

[Danny]

Well damn, I assume I am dead. Hopefully the remaining villagers can get it right.

[EagleFan]

The next morning arrives and you notice that Passacaglia has been killed. You search him and discover that he was Ronnie Marcum. A self improvement guru that was nearing the end of his sentence.


Passacaglia was Ronnie Marcum.

[EagleFan]

Day Seven has begun!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Well damn, I assume I am dead. Hopefully the remaining villagers can get it right.

Sure you'll be dead, since you have been such a threat to the wolves so far!

See you later, folks. Good luck, village.

[Danny]

Alright, so the wolf left me alive. I have to believe the wolf had it in their mind I was not likely to vote him.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Sure you'll be dead, since you have been such a threat to the wolves so far!

See you later, folks. Good luck, village.

Ok, I will play like you.

I am not a wolf! If you lynch me you will lose! See you tomorrow!

[Danny]

I am sorry if that came off harsh, but I've actually put a lot of effort into the game and trying to help the village win. Obviously doesn't mean I will always or even usually be right. But you were clearly the best vote at the time based on everyones actions.

[EagleFan]

Play nice....

[Danny]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Play nice....

Yeah, I apologize. I have a lot of built up frustration everyday from my living situation, and haven't got my workout in yet today (which is my primary stress relief).

Chief knows that I love him

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

Yeah, I apologize. I have a lot of built up frustration everyday from my living situation, and haven't got my workout in yet today (which is my primary stress relief).

Chief knows that I love him

He'd know it better if you ever sent flowers.

[Danny]

I tried, but 1-800 Pro Flowers lost my order.

[Danny]

I have a real hard time believing Narc would leave me alive as the last wolf as I have been pretty clear I was going to vote him. If the wolf was Julio or Chubby then they probably do leave me a live knowing I am likely to vote Narc.

I also don't see Narc giving in to voting Chief so early without Julio or Chubby weighing in.

[Danny]

So at this point, I am rethinking my earlier thoughts about voting Narc right after Chief. Additionally, Julio and Chubby have both been way back in the fray since I posted they were both likely villagers and Narc or Chief was the last wolf.

[Danny]

There was also the decision to kill Jackal who was lower on my trust list than Chubby or Julio. I'll have to reread everything that happened day 2 as they seems to be the key. I think I am willing to give Narc pass here and my vote will likely go between Chubby and Julio.