Werewolf XCVI: The Dark One and The Order of Righteousness (GAME OVER EVIL WINS)

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That's assuming the Dark One is reborn or something, right? I'm fine assuming that won't happen.

I believe any of the Dark Followers can break them out of jail.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

VOTE LYNCH KWHIT

I subscribe to Chief Rum's theory.

Which theory are you talking about?

[USFLTecmo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It's self-serving at this point for KWhit to say it, but I am suggesting that the Cultist could be doing scans as well, have scanned KWhit as light and wants to help the wolves. So he tries to smoke out the seer by revealing, and getting a villager lynched at the same time.

I don't know what Lathum's allegiance is, and he may indeed be the seer. But I am a bit skittish after last game when it comes to COTs, especially when the Cultist role is around. So I am a bit sensitive right now to getting the runaround here.

I guess there is one way to find out: we lynch KWhit.

VOTE LYNCH KWHIT

If Lathum is the seer, we're good. If he's not, I'll be really curious to see what the seer is doing.

What I liked about his post is highlighted in italics.

[USFLTecmo]

Duh. How about I bold it next time? :P

[USFLTecmo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It's self-serving at this point for KWhit to say it, but I am suggesting that the Cultist could be doing scans as well, have scanned KWhit as light and wants to help the wolves. So he tries to smoke out the seer by revealing, and getting a villager lynched at the same time.

I don't know what Lathum's allegiance is, and he may indeed be the seer. But I am a bit skittish after last game when it comes to COTs, especially when the Cultist role is around. So I am a bit sensitive right now to getting the runaround here.

I guess there is one way to find out: we lynch KWhit.

VOTE LYNCH KWHIT

If Lathum is the seer, we're good. If he's not, I'll be really curious to see what the seer is doing.

There, better.

[Passacaglia]

So you subscribe to his theory that we may be getting the runaround here, but you also agree the best move is to lynch KWhit?

[saldana]

Originally Posted by RendeR

For those complaining that we haven't learned anything I beg to differ:

The Dark One was killed
We trust our current King
We Semi-trust Abe and are simply awaiting verification.

WE HAVEN"T LOST 2 VILLAGERS A NIGHT.


But go right on ahead trying to sell everyone that lynching is still the better choice. Really. I mean it...Try.

the dark one was killed based on a hunch by a dead player...not based on evidence from the jailing process

we do trust our king, but for me, that trust is based much more on an uncontested reveal than it is on anything to do with the jailing process

we semi-trust abe, so are waiting for a 1 in 5 shot to find anything out about him....i will remind you that roulette wheels have no memories, so keeping him in there waiting for a positive scan is like putting your money on a different number because the one you wanted hit two spins ago.

we have not lost two villagers per day, but we are still on day one in terms of finding a wolf because of it.

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

And the seer has had three night scans - so we possibly have up to three more we can trust...

i guess you havent noticed that the people that are dying at night are also very likely people that were the targets of seer scans

hoops is always an early scan. period.
danny is, as far as I am concerned, a fantastic player, and when I was a wolf last game, I wanted to take him out on the third day.
DT is a vet that is always a great rolled villager.

all of those guys are people i would want to make sure were on my side if i was the seer..do you honestly think it is coincidence that they are the 3 night kills...the wolves probably have the exact same opinons as the seer.

not sure who is gonna get my vote at this point...either Kwhit or RendeR

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by saldana

DT is a vet that is always a great rolled villager.

awww thanks for the vote of confidence! frankly i think i'm not a great rolled villager, but i appreciate the compliment!

go team!!

[saldana]

guess i should have finished reading...i was pretty sure on lathum as the seer as well...he even pointed out himself that he is a pitbull when he latches on to an idea, but he swapped in a hurry on the way he felt about BK...i have no reason not to buy it, and unless kwhit is the seer, which the wolves would have no way of knowing, this is an odd 1:1 trade that i dont thing a wolf lathum would make.

vote lynch kwhit

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by saldana

the dark one was killed based on a hunch by a dead player...not based on evidence from the jailing process

we do trust our king, but for me, that trust is based much more on an uncontested reveal than it is on anything to do with the jailing process

we semi-trust abe, so are waiting for a 1 in 5 shot to find anything out about him....i will remind you that roulette wheels have no memories, so keeping him in there waiting for a positive scan is like putting your money on a different number because the one you wanted hit two spins ago.

we have not lost two villagers per day, but we are still on day one in terms of finding a wolf because of it.



i guess you havent noticed that the people that are dying at night are also very likely people that were the targets of seer scans

hoops is always an early scan. period.
danny is, as far as I am concerned, a fantastic player, and when I was a wolf last game, I wanted to take him out on the third day.
DT is a vet that is always a great rolled villager.

all of those guys are people i would want to make sure were on my side if i was the seer..do you honestly think it is coincidence that they are the 3 night kills...the wolves probably have the exact same opinons as the seer.

not sure who is gonna get my vote at this point...either Kwhit or RendeR

Err, why me? other than the fact that I support the plan that the numbers say works in our favor instead of the one that kills multiple people in a day/night? That seems like an awfully sketchy reason to lynch someone path.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Err, why me? other than the fact that I support the plan that the numbers say works in our favor instead of the one that kills multiple people in a day/night? That seems like an awfully sketchy reason to lynch someone path.

part of it is the fact that you are refusing the other side of logic...

part of it is gut...you dont seem nearly the instigator you normally are...you have never been one to sit back and relax in these games..you typically are on the attack all the time, and this game, you seem content to watch the grass grow.

that may be a factor of not having played with you in a while, but it could also be someone trying to blend into the background so as to not get lynched because they know that if they only get jailed, they can get busted out.

[KWhit]

All of you guys who are saying "Yeah, I figured Lathum was the seer" are going to feel pretty stupid when I'm revealed as a villager.

Just sayin'.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by KWhit

All of you guys who are saying "Yeah, I figured Lathum was the seer" are going to feel pretty stupid when I'm revealed as a villager.

Just sayin'.

I won't -- I completely allowed for him setting himself up for a fake seer reveal. And I certainly won't feel stupid if the real seer doesn't counter -- what would you do in the situation everyone else is in?

[RendeR]

Well as for the instigator role, I quit playing for awhile because I was getting too wound up about it. I'm playing very irregularly now so I don't become that person in teh games again. I'm trying very hard NOT to be that instigator. I got too much negative feedback about it and I want everyone to have fun.

Secondly I do not deny the logic of the other side of the argument, I simply put them side by side:

Lynching == 2 possible dead every night
Jailing == 1 possibly dead every night

alive >> dead

thats my reasoning. killing people left and right is the single BEST play for the wolves. No matter the amount of info we get we cannot (IMO) do the obviously worst possible thing by playing by THEIR rules.

If you can't see that I can't help you. Lynching is NOT the best solution, its not a terrible one, but its not the BEST one.

Now as for our situation today, I'm torn. Jailing might work too, but how soon? Lynching tells us more IN THIS CASE. but not as a generic daily routine.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by saldana

part of it is the fact that you are refusing the other side of logic...

And you guys are refusing the other side of the logic.

Of course, you're about to find out that the key proponent of the lynch-at-all-costs side is evil.

Which has been precisely my point. The wolves want us to be lynching people. I hope more of you pay attention to that when I'm revealed to be good.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I won't -- I completely allowed for him setting himself up for a fake seer reveal. And I certainly won't feel stupid if the real seer doesn't counter -- what would you do in the situation everyone else is in?

I would Duke the vote to Lathum, actually.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Secondly I do not deny the logic of the other side of the argument, I simply put them side by side:

Lynching == 2 possible dead every night
Jailing == 1 possibly dead every night

alive >> dead

except that by your rationale, the ONLY people that are going to die are villagers...we arent even giving ourselves a chance to blindly stumble into lynching one of them or the information we need to root them out from trying to kill us during the day!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I would Duke the vote to Lathum, actually.

I said everyone else, not me!!

And seriously -- if you were in my place, Lathum reveals as seer uncontested, and the guy he points out just says that he is actually good, you would duke to Lathum?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by saldana

except that by your rationale, the ONLY people that are going to die are villagers...we arent even giving ourselves a chance to blindly stumble into lynching one of them or the information we need to root them out from trying to kill us during the day!

But they are effectively removed from the game by being jailed and given a couple of days will be revealed as wolves. And then they will be executed by the king.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by saldana

except that by your rationale, the ONLY people that are going to die are villagers...we arent even giving ourselves a chance to blindly stumble into lynching one of them or the information we need to root them out from trying to kill us during the day!

You're not paying attention to the rules then.

We have a 20% chance EVERY NIGHT to find out exactly who is in jail, wether there is one person jailed or 10 of us in there, we could hit on none, we could hit on all 10.

That is STILL better than blindly shooting at villagers until we find a furball.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I said everyone else, not me!!

And seriously -- if you were in my place, Lathum reveals as seer uncontested, and the guy he points out just says that he is actually good, you would duke to Lathum?

Yeah, 'cause I know Lathum's lying.



(I get what you're saying).

[RendeR]

Its currently day 4, we've had 3 full days of activity, we've already bagged the top wolf. But you're acting like we've done nothing at all. Perhaps that wasn't because of the jailing mechanic, so what? why should we ignore the higher percentage play?

You say lynching makes more sense, prove it please. show me the numbers that prove killing more villagers in search of wolves is smarter than keeping them alive and searching for wolves.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

And seriously -- if you were in my place, Lathum reveals as seer uncontested, and the guy he points out just says that he is actually good, you would duke to Lathum?

The one concern I have on this - what if an unknown mechanic trigger for the cultist isn't "being lynched" but is "getting someone lynched"? If that's the case, we'll already be too late tomorrow. Not sure if I'd change - just throwing it out there as potential concern...

[Passacaglia]

I think it depends on the size of the game, honestly. Lets assume for every 5 players, one is a wolf.

In a 5-player game, if you jail and let the wolves make the only kills, you've got 3 days to get everything sorted out. That just won't happen.

But in a 10-player game, you get 6 days, in a 15-player game, you get 9 days, and in a 20-player game, you get 12 days.

[RendeR]

OFF TOPIC



Fox News is pathetic. They're spinning the obama healthcare stance into some sort of orwellian command from on high.

I really hate right wing bullshit.


End rant.

Oh wait,

mCCain is a fucking idiot as well, based on his current comments on the same show.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

The one concern I have on this - what if an unknown mechanic trigger for the cultist isn't "being lynched" but is "getting someone lynched"? If that's the case, we'll already be too late tomorrow. Not sure if I'd change - just throwing it out there as potential concern...

I wonder about something like that myself, but I think it would be overthinking things to base our actions on it. It's good that Chief reminded us of all the quirks of the Cultist though.

[The Jackal]

Well it looks like no one is contesting Lathum's reveal (except KWhit):

VOTE KWHIT LYNCH

I'll admit I didn't have Lathum as the seer, but his scan targets and resulting actions in the thread make enough sense.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by RendeR

OFF TOPIC



Fox News is pathetic. They're spinning the obama healthcare stance into some sort of orwellian command from on high.

I really hate right wing bullshit.


End rant.

Oh wait,

mCCain is a fucking idiot as well, based on his current comments on the same show.

Please keep religion and politics out of WW.

Thanks.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Please keep religion and politics out of WW.

Thanks.

Sorry Schmidty =) it was on the television while I was reading =)

[KWhit]

This sucks.

Vote Lynch Lathum

You lynch-first guys have won me over. At least for this vote.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Sorry Schmidty =) it was on the television while I was reading =)

WELL I WAS READING THE BIBLE, AND I DIDN'T POST THE SERMON ON THE MOUNT, DID I?!?!?!?!?!?!?

[Schmidty]

[Telle]

Well I'm finally caught up. This vote seems simple enough.

VOTE KWHIT LYNCH

[Telle]

Votes as of post #1383:

10 - KWhit lynch - Lathum (1258), Autumn (1323), Lerriuqs (1326), SnDvls (1328), path (1338), Chief Rum (1342), USFLTechmo (1350), saldana (1359), The Jackal (1377), Telle (1383)
1 - lerriuqs lynch - Passacaglia (1274)
1 - Lathum lynch - KWhit (1380)

Yet to vote: Barkeep49, MartinD, RendeR

[Passacaglia]

so help me god if MartinD is the seer

[Passacaglia]

(sorry about getting religious schmidty)

[Passacaglia]

btw my vote is on kwhit

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

btw my vote is on kwhit

Do you know what post #? I obviously missed it.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Telle

Do you know what post #? I obviously missed it.

Nevermind, I found it. Post 1321.

[dubb93]

I made a minor change to Post 1252

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

IMO, logic dictates that wolves are more likely to be in the "lynch" camp actually, especially with the Dark One dead, since they can't control the deaths of villagers in prison and are left concerned that the King might free everyone in the joint at any time. A wolf will want a lynch because that way, they know those villagers are dead and out of the game for sure.

So, IMO, some of the best wolf candidates are actually those supporting the lynch, rather than jail. This more goes for those who have supported lynching from the start. I more undertsand people leaning toward lynching today, as it is true that the jail mechanism devalues the voting records, which is entirely frustrating.

Your math was flawed from the start. So I'm proud to have been in the lynch category from the start.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Telle

Just a strategy question... how many days should a seer stay quiet if they don't find a wolf? Because you do have to worry that eventually the wolves will get lucky with a night kill and you lose the knowledge of a CoT that the seer has built.

I would hope that a seer would find other ways of indicating scans that would be obvious upon death.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I made a minor change to Post 1252

hey dubb - how come i didn't get my story in before i died? wouldn't my deadline have to be early in the evening?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

hey dubb - how come i didn't get my story in before i died? wouldn't my deadline have to be early in the evening?

Word. Diffama's final article really should have been published posthumously!

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

hey dubb - how come i didn't get my story in before i died? wouldn't my deadline have to be early in the evening?

. Order of actions. Your death came before the newspaper was published.

If your death came early enough to make the newspaper(meaning you died way before the stories were to be in to the editor) do you really think you would have had your story done yet?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by dubb93

. Order of actions. Your death came before the newspaper was published.

If your death came early enough to make the newspaper(meaning you died way before the stories were to be in to the editor) do you really think you would have had your story done yet?

yep! cuz i don't procrastinate!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, I like lerriuqs plan, will be gone soon so I need to get it out there now.

I'm Crystal Oculo, I scanned BK N1 which is why my turnaround on him about being king.

N2 I scanned Pass because of his escape.

Last night I scanned KWhit based on his insistence about jail and he came up as having a dark auroa. Thats why I came out the way I did today


we need to start buillding a CoT

Darn it. Catching up now obviously and I had you pegged as the seer (see my comment yesterday about being scanned). Now I don't get as much credit for that as I thought we'd be able to lynch KWhit without a reveal.

Vote KWhit Lynch

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Your math was flawed from the start. So I'm proud to have been in the lynch category from the start.

You are correct that it was flawed, in that I was doing the math from the "unknown results" perspective, even though we knew the first result.

That said, my entire point was to show the increasing levels of success which would result with continuing to use the strategy, which the math, flawed though it was, made perfectly clear.

Not that that matters to yuo once you convince yourself you're right of course.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Darn it. Catching up now obviously and I had you pegged as the seer (see my comment yesterday about being scanned). Now I don't get as much credit for that as I thought we'd be able to lynch KWhit without a reveal.

Vote KWhit Lynch

I guess you've got to pick your spots, though -- I was also hoping to lynch Autumn without Lathum revealing, so it can go both ways.

[Autumn]

We need to start our own independent press. This state run operation can't get the news out that we want.