WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[Pumpy Tudors]

I scanned Chief Rum as a student, too. Honestly, these scans aren't getting me anywhere.

[Lorena]

I was gonna wait until after the results of tonight's kill, but I'm gonna go ahead and make an assumption.

We lost Greyroofoo, Passacaglia, and now saldana to night kills. We lost Lathum and nfg22 to lynches. The 3 night kills were people contributing quite a bit. saldana is a vet that I've no doubt has the wolves a little freaked out. I'm gonna assume that the wolves are either newbies, or someone that hasn't had much experience as a wolf.

[Dr. Sak]

No they arent and I think we should start looking at the people who were really pushing for them and to lynch people who we now know are villagers, just because these scans would give us more data points. The data points are garbage. Right now, Cronin is #1 on my list for lynching tonight.

[Lorena]

Vote claphamsa

Day 1 he votes for The Jackal early in the day.
Day 2 he votes for nfg, which we now now is a villeger.
Day 3 he votes for st.cronin pretty early in the day.
Day 4 he votes for st.cronin, again, early in the day.

The wolves know who they are, but these early votes seem like someone who's a little too anxious to get rid of people. I haven't played with him but I'm assuming he's a newb.

[jeheinz72]

Argh, I was hoping my the gut feeling I got that we were wrong when I left yesterday was just me worrying, but alas. Bummer NFG, IIRC this was your 1st game and I'm sure you'll learn to not invite the heat like that in future plays, I hope you stick with it.

As far as my scan, I scanned Cronin and he came up wolf.

That's 3 scans on him, 2 are bad (bad from me and clap-n2 and good from BK-n2).

Frankly, I'm willing to run with that at this point, especially when combined with his gameplay to this point. To amend DC's earlier point, we've lost GRF, Pass and saldana at night. GRF was Cronin's night scan. It's concievable he offed him to set himself up a bit as someone who scanned correctly night-0 (not that any of us are taking much account into n0 scans). Then Pass and saldana, arguably two of the more dangerous/helpful veterans, fall the next two nights (I'd put them in the group with the deceased Lathum, BK and CR, and me, because I'm the shit). I think it'd take a vet to know to take those vets out.

Vote St. Cronin

I'm open to discussion of course, but I like this vote, and for now I stand by it.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Vote claphamsa

Day 1 he votes for The Jackal early in the day.
Day 2 he votes for nfg, which we now now is a villeger.
Day 3 he votes for st.cronin pretty early in the day.
Day 4 he votes for st.cronin, again, early in the day.

The wolves know who they are, but these early votes seem like someone who's a little too anxious to get rid of people. I haven't played with him but I'm assuming he's a newb.

not a newb, and what is wrong with voting early? the other board I play on the tie breaker is longest standing vote. so I vote early its not like we cant unvote....

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Argh, I was hoping my the gut feeling I got that we were wrong when I left yesterday was just me worrying, but alas. Bummer NFG, IIRC this was your 1st game and I'm sure you'll learn to not invite the heat like that in future plays, I hope you stick with it.

As far as my scan, I scanned Cronin and he came up wolf.

That's 3 scans on him, 2 are bad (bad from me and clap-n2 and good from BK-n2).

Frankly, I'm willing to run with that at this point, especially when combined with his gameplay to this point. To amend DC's earlier point, we've lost GRF, Pass and saldana at night. GRF was Cronin's night scan. It's concievable he offed him to set himself up a bit as someone who scanned correctly night-0 (not that any of us are taking much account into n0 scans). Then Pass and saldana, arguably two of the more dangerous/helpful veterans, fall the next two nights (I'd put them in the group with the deceased Lathum, BK and CR, and me, because I'm the shit). I think it'd take a vet to know to take those vets out.

Vote St. Cronin

I'm open to discussion of course, but I like this vote, and for now I stand by it.

prety much waht I was thinking.... I think the wolves are manipulating the scans.... and it takes a savy vet to do that!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by bsak16

No they arent and I think we should start looking at the people who were really pushing for them and to lynch people who we now know are villagers, just because these scans would give us more data points. The data points are garbage. Right now, Cronin is #1 on my list for lynching tonight.

The data points aren't worth a lot to us now, but I continue to insist that if we nail a wolf or two early on, that the game is ours because come end game I think the data is going to be fairly conclusive, based on who we will know to be accurate or not. I continue to encourage you to reveal who you scanned last night and the result.

[Barkeep49]

I've certainly felt that cronin has been playing a strong game and seeming to manipulate people.

But I'm a little surprised that CR hasn't received any attention today. His actions too have been suspicious.

I'm inclined to vote for cronin, based on my interactions with him, but think we need to broaden our discussion a little beyond just him and clap.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I've certainly felt that cronin has been playing a strong game and seeming to manipulate people.

But I'm a little surprised that CR hasn't received any attention today. His actions too have been suspicious.

I'm inclined to vote for cronin, based on my interactions with him, but think we need to broaden our discussion a little beyond just him and clap.

My thought on CR is that if we go that route, we'd just be potentially repeating past mistakes (lynching the previous days 2nd leading vote getter for data points). IMO, the wolves conned us into doing that twice and I'd prefer to not do that again.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I continue to encourage you to reveal who you scanned last night and the result.

My scan last night was Cronin...and he came out a wolf.

[MikeVic]

My scan was CR as first stated. And he came out wolf.

[MikeVic]

I really wish we knew if night 0 was accurate or not.

[SnDvls]

I scanned Pumpy and he came out a wolf on my scan

[jeheinz72]

By my count, we need n3 scans from:

CR, NTN, Olie, RendeR, St. Cronin, Jackal and Mau

That look right folks?

[nfg22]

*faint whisper* avenge me *faint whisper*

[claphamsa]

I cant belive we are all actually working.....

[st.cronin]

I scanned The Jackal, he showed up as a wolf. Just got here, catching up.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I scanned The Jackal, he showed up as a wolf. Just got here, catching up.

Why Jackal? Seems kinda random.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Why Jackal? Seems kinda random.

Because he'd been way under the radar, I didn't have a feel for him. Also he was somebody that there wasn't a lot of data on.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[jeheinz72]

This just seems weird to me. Taking out n0, that's 3 scans of wolf for you Cronin. First Pass, then CR, now Jackal. Very strange.

[Dr. Sak]

Cronin's behavior has been odd. Pushing for votes on two people we know are villagers and now this random vote for The Jackal...probably to get more "data". My mind is made up.

VOTE ST CRONIN

[ntndeacon]

I scanned mau again, this time he came up student.

[st.cronin]

Don't have an answer for that, other than that I know those three aren't the Teacher's Pet.

[Lorena]

I'm gonna disregard all scans from now on. I'll submit one, but it's really hard to figue out who's lying and who's telling the truth. I've no doubt wolves are lying about who they supposedly scanned.

[jeheinz72]

Here's what we have on scans so far and their verified accuracy

Player - Correct/Wrong/Unknown

BK - 1/1/1
bsak - 1/0/2
CR - 0/2/1 - no n3 scan
clap - 2/0/1 - I'm counting clap's scan of me as correct, since I know that's true
DC - 0/0/3
jeheinz - 0/0/2
Mauboy - 1/0/1 - no n3 scan
MikeVic - 0/0/3
Mr.W - 0/1/2
NTN - 0/1/2
Olie - 0/0/3 - no n3 scan
Pumpy - 1/1/1
RendeR - 0/1/2 - no n3 scan
SnDvls - 0/0/3
St. Cronin - 0/1/2
Jackal - 1/0/2 - no n3 scan

[jeheinz72]

Could be Teachers Pet (9): bsak, clap, DC, jeheinz72, Mau, MikeVic, Olie, SnDvls, Jackal

Could be Class Clown (10): CheifRum, DC, jeheinz72, MikeVic, Mr. W, NTN, Olie, RendeR, SnDvls, Cronin

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Don't have an answer for that, other than that I know those three aren't the Teacher's Pet.

How do we know Jackal can't be the Teachers pet? He scanned BK (to which we have no answer) and NFG (and he was correct), no n3 data.

[jeheinz72]

Actually NTN can't be the Class Clown, he scanned the same person twice with differing results

[ntndeacon]

actually I can't be class clown now.

I scanned mau as a wolf day 2 and as a student day 3

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

How do we know Jackal can't be the Teachers pet? He scanned BK (to which we have no answer) and NFG (and he was correct), no n3 data.

Note the pronoun I used: "I" not "we". I know the Jackal isn't the Teacher's Pet, but you obviously don't know that. If we lynch him, I'll be proven right.

[ntndeacon]

I see you figured that as I was typing

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Note the pronoun I used: "I" not "we". I know the Jackal isn't the Teacher's Pet, but you obviously don't know that. If we lynch him, I'll be proven right.

Ok, so how do "you" know this. Can you shed some light so that "we" might understand this determination you're making?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I'm gonna disregard all scans from now on. I'll submit one, but it's really hard to figue out who's lying and who's telling the truth. I've no doubt wolves are lying about who they supposedly scanned.

I'm starting to see more and more validity in the scans. It really helped me when I laid it all up on a spreadsheet.

[Barkeep49]

Cronin why are you placing so much stock in this night 3 scan? I've really tried to give you the benefit of the doubt as you've been so suspicious to me, but I was afraid I was falling into the trap of "he's suspicious of me so he must be a wolf" but basically everything you do screams to me wolf. I can be convinced otherwise on you, but you've really got to start explaining your some what inexplicable actions better.

Vote Cronin

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Ok, so how do "you" know this. Can you shed some light so that "we" might understand this determination you're making?

I know this because he claims to have scanned me as wolf, when I'm not. So one of two things is true: He is lying about his scan (which possibility I am throwing out), or he is wrong about his scan, and therefore not the Teacher's Pet.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I scanned mau again, this time he came up student.

So you've got some ability to see things correctly. Whereas, I still don't know how well I can see.

I decided to scan DodgerChick and she came up as a wolf. I scanned her because I really thought she was a villager so this scan tells me that I don't have the all knowing 100% scan rate I thought I might.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I know this because he claims to have scanned me as wolf, when I'm not. So one of two things is true: He is lying about his scan (which possibility I am throwing out), or he is wrong about his scan, and therefore not the Teacher's Pet.

Uh, Jackal hasn't scanned you. Unless I missed the post

[Barkeep49]

While I couldn't bring myself to do it, we really need to NOT have a run away vote today since regardless of whether cronin is a wolf or a villager a runaway vote tells us little. We need a vote close enough that people are forced to make a decision and it is that pressure which will help us with our vote analysis later on.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Cronin why are you placing so much stock in this night 3 scan?

I am not placing stock in it - my vote doesn't have much conviction on it, and what conviction it has is not based on the scan. My hope is that if the Jackal DOES get lynched, I will have a better idea of my accuracy rate. My idea this morning is that we need to play this as a standard werewolf game, which means putting pressure on the people that are under the radar, and if somebody thinks they're the teacher's pet, or the class clown, let them say so, and we'll put it to the test.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

While I couldn't bring myself to do it, we really need to NOT have a run away vote today since regardless of whether cronin is a wolf or a villager a runaway vote tells us little. We need a vote close enough that people are forced to make a decision and it is that pressure which will help us with our vote analysis later on.

I dunno, close brings on the element of wolf-manipulation too.

I'm pretty dang confident in a Cronin vote right now. His fishy gameplay, 3 wolf scans out of 4, now a complete innacuracy from him.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Uh, Jackal hasn't scanned you. Unless I missed the post

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

This just seems weird to me. Taking out n0, that's 3 scans of wolf for you Cronin. First Pass, then CR, now Jackal. Very strange.

Why did you say this, then?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am not placing stock in it - my vote doesn't have much conviction on it, and what conviction it has is not based on the scan. My hope is that if the Jackal DOES get lynched, I will have a better idea of my accuracy rate. My idea this morning is that we need to play this as a standard werewolf game, which means putting pressure on the people that are under the radar, and if somebody thinks they're the teacher's pet, or the class clown, let them say so, and we'll put it to the test.

But for you to be proven to have an accuracy rate of anything that means a salt to us (you're 0 for 1, so can only be Class clown) Jackal would have to get lynched and be a student (since you've scanned him as a wolf).

So you're saying we should lynching someone that would only be this benefit to you if they're good? Really? I mean you're just 1 of 9 who could be CC.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

So you've got some ability to see things correctly. Whereas, I still don't know how well I can see.

I decided to scan DodgerChick and she came up as a wolf. I scanned her because I really thought she was a villager so this scan tells me that I don't have the all knowing 100% scan rate I thought I might.

This post needs to be remembered later on if either DC or mau turn out to be a wolf. It REALLY needs to be remembered.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

So you've got some ability to see things correctly. Whereas, I still don't know how well I can see.

I decided to scan DodgerChick and she came up as a wolf. I scanned her because I really thought she was a villager so this scan tells me that I don't have the all knowing 100% scan rate I thought I might.

Yea but I was happier when Ithought Iwas always wrong, like yesterday. Cuz if I was always wrong we would have gotten a wolf. now everything Ido is in doubt. I know I have 2 wrong and 1 right out of 4 scans. (Yes I count night 0 scans)

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Why did you say this, then?

Because you scanned Jackal and said he was a wolf

You scanned pass n1, he came up wolf you said.
You scanned CR n2, he came up wolf you said.
You scanned Jackal n3, he came up wolf you said.

That just seems strange to me.

[st.cronin]

Oh, wait, now I understand what you were saying - those are MY scans. I was confused, disregard all that about the Teacher's Pet.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I dunno, close brings on the element of wolf-manipulation too.

I'm pretty dang confident in a Cronin vote right now. His fishy gameplay, 3 wolf scans out of 4, now a complete innacuracy from him.

I'm pretty dang confident in my cronin vote as well which is why I placed it. I just don't see any explanation other than wolfiness or bad play (and cronin doesn't tend ot play bad) for his actions this game. I'm just hoping someone else feels differently since a close vote that IS manipulated by the wolves is quite instructive when looked at in retrospect.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm pretty dang confident in my cronin vote as well which is why I placed it. I just don't see any explanation other than wolfiness or bad play (and cronin doesn't tend ot play bad) for his actions this game. I'm just hoping someone else feels differently since a close vote that IS manipulated by the wolves is quite instructive when looked at in retrospect.

I think we'll get a close vote in the end. Somehow, someway.

[st.cronin]

I'm not surprised Barkeep is on this bandwagon, I'm 98% sure that he's either a wolf, or allied with the wolves. Does anybody actually buy his story, that he's a villager who always scans as a villager? I sure don't. I haven't advocated lynching him, since I think its possible that he counts as a villager but wins with the wolves, but I am completely disregarding anything he says.