WW CLVII - Ghostbusters - Game Over (result in post 1521)

[Narcizo]

In fact Venkman doesn't have to reveal at all. He can just duke the vote where he wants and the wolves won't know who he is to target him before deadline. So it's up to Venkman if he wants to cross the streams or take a shot at a wolf. (Unless Chubby is Venkman, in which case maybe Spengler has better info for us)

[Autumn]

Well, it's an easy call for the wolves to fake reveal here, and easy for them to say they have no info, so I'll wait and see if anyone is going to counter Chubby. I think it's a bit early to consider crossing the streams. We've got two roled villagers left and even voting randomly a very good shot at hitting a wolf. The streams, by my understanding, are for when it's basically game over.

[Narcizo]

I suggest we
A) come up with a personal defence of ourselves and
B) try to reason who we think the wolves might be.

[Narcizo]

Then Venkman can make the call.

I definitely don't think that this should go to an actual vote - if we're 5-1-3 then there's just too much room for the wolves to sabotage the vote as ALL villagers will have to vote in unison. As we don't know who all the villagers are it will be impossible to swing that.

[Autumn]

Well, I think I've got a pretty good reasoning for not being a wolf. PF tried to get me in the vote several times. I was I think the second vote on PF and left it there despite many opportunities to move it. I suppose I could be Peck, and not have known PF, or I could have been doing what I strategized the wolves would do--throwing PF under the bus. So I'm definitely on the list.

I need to read back through yesterday's vote, but so far my thinking is about the same. I thought Mauchow was a more likely wolf than Katy or Zinto. I thought Murray was the least likely out of my list. So far so good. Lathum is kind of disappearing as the game goes on, which worries me, but he hasn't shown up in any of my analysis so far, and I took Chubby off the list because he was striking me as an argumentative villager.

So Mau, Pass and Katy remain my top three. When I looked back at PF's votes Mau came up repeatedly. When I put out my distrust list, I was watching to see how others handled it. I expected a wolf would grab it and run with it, voting someone they wanted to see in the running from it. That's what Mau did. Pass voted someone not on my list, which gave him a bit of cred with me, as I think those kind of lists make it easy for wolves to hide a vote. So I still lean towards Mau out of those three, but think it's likely two of them could be a wolf.

Narc, Lathum, Font, bhlloy. These guys I don't necessarily feel great about, but they haven't shown up in my analysis one way or the other.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Then Venkman can make the call.

I definitely don't think that this should go to an actual vote - if we're 5-1-3 then there's just too much room for the wolves to sabotage the vote as ALL villagers will have to vote in unison. As we don't know who all the villagers are it will be impossible to swing that.

You don't think the lynch should go to a vote you mean? well, I think we should definitely vote. We have no idea if Venkman's going to do anything, and we need to see who people are voting. Voting with the plan to have it duked just gives the wolves an excuse to not really vote the way they would.

[mauchow]

I''ll do a quick list of what I think in order of likelyhood of being a ghost and later I will try to do more detail on these thoughts.

Katy - if she is a wolf I gotta think font has to be based on last nights switch. However, i do get the feeling she was uncertain with herself. Katy being a wolf would also put fire on a few others.

Pass - has been way too quiet and missed a key vote. If he creates the tie last night I would have switched my vote. No tie was going to happen on my watch.

Autumn - again knowing what katy is could be a huge key for us finding out autumns allegiance. He was definitely helping font lean into a certain vote. A bold move for a wolf but not far-fetched at the same time.

Lathum - not really utr but at the same time sort of.

Font-depends on katy

Narc

Bhlloy and chubby I feel pretty good with.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Lathum is kind of disappearing as the game goes on, which worries me, but he hasn't shown up in any of my analysis so far,

Sorry. The way Chubby was taking his shots at me has kind of sucked the fun out of the game. I have no interest in putting lot of time into it just to have someone make nasty comments when they disagree with my plays.

Plus we had friends in town last night and I had a very busy day at work. My 7 1/2 month preggo wife doesn't feel well today, leaving me to fend alone with our 3 year old so my time will likely be limited..

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Sorry. The way Chubby was taking his shots at me has kind of sucked the fun out of the game. I have no interest in putting lot of time into it just to have someone make nasty comments when they disagree with my plays.

Plus we had friends in town last night and I had a very busy day at work. My 7 1/2 month preggo wife doesn't feel well today, leaving me to fend alone with our 3 year old so my time will likely be limited..

I had to see if I could get an old time Lathum blowup out of you. Nothing personal, I just don't think wolf Lathum would do that. Was also trying to get reactions from others and be more "out there" so that I wouldn't get put on the block and have to reveal before I felt it was time

[Chubby]

vote katy

to get a placeholder vote in

[KatyLied]

Vote Lathum.

Nothing personal, just seems like a logical suspect.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by fontisian

This paragraph reads really oddly, especially the end. It sounds like you're writing from the point of view of a non-Terror Dog scum, or from the perspective of a scum player trying to act like they know less than they do.

Vote hoopsguy

For fontisian - this is why I thought you were the seer. This pretty much sounds like you're looking for an excuse to justify voting for hoops. Pretty dary/risky play for the seer to up and vote for a (presumed) wolf like that but still.

[Passacaglia]

I didn't miss any votes.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by KatyLied

Vote Lathum.

Nothing personal, just seems like a logical suspect.

care to explain why?

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

For fontisian - this is why I thought you were the seer. This pretty much sounds like you're looking for an excuse to justify voting for hoops. Pretty dary/risky play for the seer to up and vote for a (presumed) wolf like that but still.

Ah. I actually thought that the wording was odd enough to merit a pressure vote. Hoops' reaction kept me on him, as I thought he sounded a bit desperate.

Katy: Please explain your vote. You're making me regret not voting for you.

[Narcizo]

Muh! I can't get my head round this tonight. I hope to come back to this with more willingness to analyze tomorrow.

Vote fontisian

Without the blinkers of my belief that he's the seer he looks pretty damned lupine (or scummy as he would have it). His voting record is cack. He thinks that murra5y, Lathum and I are wolfies but he's considering voting with us for a long time yesterday.

At the moment my trust list is Lathum and, grudgingly, Chubby barring a counter reveal. I want to feel good about Pass as he's been banging away about Font for ages but he's not adverse to the odd wolf-on-wolf voting action.

I think I could be convinced to revisit Katy again, although it would have been nice had our seer scanned her.

[fontisian]

It's she actually. I can't fault you for going after me, considering how terrible my voting record is.

[JAG]

fontisian 1 - Narcizo (1366)
KatyLied 1 - Chubby (1360)
Lathum 1 - KatyLied (1361)

[fontisian]

Who has claimed vanilla so far? I just remember Lathum, but has Katy claimed vanilla as well?

[fontisian]

Ah, Narcizo also claimed vanilla. I'm vanilla as well.

There are three ghost busters left: Peter Venkman, Egon Spengler and Janine Melnitz. If we are at 5-1-3, then there can only be two vanillas left. Ergo, one of Lathum, Narcizo and I are lying and is most likely scum.

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Without the blinkers of my belief that he's the seer he looks pretty damned lupine (or scummy as he would have it). His voting record is cack. He thinks that murra5y, Lathum and I are wolfies but he's considering voting with us for a long time yesterday.

Looking at this again, and seeing some problems. First of all, I never said that I thought murrayyyyy was a wolf. In fact, I distictly remember classifying him as a likely towny on day 2.

Second, the arguement about me almost voting for Katy makes no sense! If I were a wolf trying to get the heat off of Katy by voting Zinto, then there's no way I'm teammates with the two people on her. If I were a wolf trying to save wolf-Zinto, but backtracking when I realized that my analysis made my earlier decision to vote Katy look scummy, then Zinto would ahve turned up as a wolf.

You're smart enough to have thought this through, and frankly it looks like you're just trying to parrot Autumn's logic and get a scummy looking towny lynched.

Vote: Narcizo

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'm vanilla and I'm not going to fight too hard to save myself here. I think it's far preferable for the village to have more candidates than end up in a two horse race that we find it hard to get out of. And I really want to see Zinto talk more.

Bholly has claimed vanilla as well. With three vanilla claims, I could see us just messing up the actual towny vs. scum ratio. But four? We would have to be 7-2.

It's possible that one of these guys claimed vanilla when they're actually Janine Melnitz, since they wouldn't have any extra abilities. Is there any downside in having Janine reveal?

[mauchow]

I am vanilla.

[mauchow]

You can't read into who says what in this game. Take it for face value.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by mauchow

You can't read into who says what in this game. Take it for face value.

I said that slightly wrong but.. obviously everyone is going to claim they're a villager. PF clqimed to be vanilla and people believed it.

[fontisian]

Yes, and he was a wolf. I'm not talking about easy "vanilla checking in reveals."
Lathum and bhlloy stuck with their vanilla reveal when they were close to being lynched. From what Narcizo advocated early, if he was a power role, he would have revealed earlier today.

I'm saying that the serious vanilla claims we have at the moment are not possible.

[Coffee Warlord]

Jag is a wolf.

[bhlloy]

I have no idea what to make of this, I was hoping the seer would at least have a couple villager names for us to strike off. If Chubby really is the seer and he's scanned exclusively dead people so far, that's terrible for us.

The vanilla math doesn't add up, so I'm perfectly willing to vote someone on that list today. I'm also leaning towards Katy being good just based on voting patterns yesterday. I think we're dealing with a very experienced wolf team who have done an amazing job of keeping themselves out of the voting, to be honest. Pending someone coming forward to challenge the reveal I'm going between Autumn and Narc today. No great insight or analysis here, just a growing feeling that we are being made to look stupid

vote Narc

If somebody can come up with a better case for Autumn I'd like to hear it, but he feels a little less likely to me right now

[JAG]

Narcizo 2 - fontisian (1371), bhlloy (1378)
fontisian 1 - Narcizo (1366)
KatyLied 1 - Chubby (1360)
Lathum 1 - KatyLied (1361)

[Autumn]

I don't see much use in the "vanilla villager claim" angle. Nobody's going to reveal until they're about to get lynched, whether wolf or roled villager. That doesn't tell us much.

[fontisian]

Is there any downside in having Janine reveal?
/repeated for emphasis

[Autumn]

There may be. We don't know anything about Janine's role, really.

[Autumn]

I will be gone most of tomorrow. So I'm hoping to get back to this tonight, and maybe in teh morning. But I don't want to miss a vote, so for now I am going to be doing the right thing and stacking with our seemingly only known villager. It's not a bad vote, since Katy's not going to give us a heck of a lot to go by and is in my top 3 suspects.

vote katylied

[mauchow]

Vote Katylied

Getting a vote in now before I pass out tonight. I'll try getting more put together tomorrow on what I wrote up earlier. I'd still entertain the idea of Autumn if we're not convinced he's Peck and Pass.

[mauchow]

I can't edit the post, but I want to clarify the end of my post, I'd consider Autumn and Pass, too... just in case it sounded funny. Peck and Pass.

[Autumn]

Ugh, I'm hoping I'll be back in time for deadline tomorrow. every time I think I've got it figured out I start questioning myself.

[KatyLied]

Originally Posted by Autumn

It's not a bad vote, since Katy's not going to give us a heck of a lot to go by and is in my top 3 suspects.

vote katylied

Dunno what I can give you given my vanilla status other than lip service. I have no special role.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by fontisian

You're smart enough to have thought this through, and frankly it looks like you're just trying to parrot Autumn's logic and get a scummy looking towny lynched.

Vote: Narcizo

Yep that's right - I spent ages, you know, working out a plan that actually keeps the village in with a chance rather than allowing headless chicken mode to dominate. Presumably to buy trust as a wolf. So I forgot to work out decent reasoning for voting someone when I could just have easily plonked my vote on katylied with the same reasoning as yesterday. Unless Katy is a wolf. In which case why did I vote her yesterday?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Is there any downside in having Janine reveal?
/repeated for emphasis

There's no downside that I can see. Then again there's little upside as it's pretty easy to claim and I doubt if the role is in the game.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

The vanilla math doesn't add up, so I'm perfectly willing to vote someone on that list today.

Venkman can claim vanilla. It's not like he ever needs to worry about being lynched so there's never any need for him to reveal. I suspect Janine isn't in the game. What's so hard to work out about this? Really.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'm also leaning towards Katy being good just based on voting patterns yesterday.

What, the voting patterns that has a lot of villagers on Katy and a lot of unknowns on the anti-Katy villager candidate?

I'm kind of worried that Katy is being set up as well though. Which is why I could really do with some time to try and work things through. The wolves would know that at 5-1-3 its a lock to set up Katy for the fall today - they're guaranteed to get at least one villager voting with them and that's all they need.

[Narcizo]

Personally I think I would advise Venkman to take a pop at bhlloy. I quite like his as the convertee. Same sort of player as britrock, kinda UTR although not so UTR that its noticeable.

21:26 #732 Danny votes Packers (1)
20:18 #764 murra5y votes Zinto (1)
07:43 #779 Narcizo votes bhlloy (1)
08:20 #787 Autumn votes Packers (2)
09:20 #806 mauchow votes Packers (3)
09:29 #810 Lathum votes bhlloy (2)
10:05 #815 bhlloy votes Zinto (2)

15:29 #865 Packer votes bhlloy (3)
15:33 #869 chubby votes Pass (1)
16:41 #898 Passa votes Packers (4)
17:01 #908 Chubby unvotes Pass (0)
17:01 #908 Chubby votes Lathum (1)
17:19 #918 Hoops votes Bhlloy (4)
17:21 #919 fontisian votes Zinto (3)

3-2-1 at the time and bhlloy votes for the 1, knowing that he's not going to be around for the rest of the day. If he's just been converted and he's rushed and there's no-one else around I think he'd take the villager vote. I doubt I'd vote wolf under those circumstances although I know it would be the "correct" wolf play.

Then there's a huge, huge wait until Packers votes bhlloy. I think there's a lot of discussion going on in the wolfy camp. If its wolf-wolf-villager and Packer votes villager then there's very likely to be repercussions and he and Bhlloy are connecting themselves too closely. So he votes wolf but gives his wolfmates instructions that if the worst comes to the worst they have to vote against him. The absolute worst case scenario for them is for Bhlloy to be lynched if he's the conversion - but at least it may take the heat off of Packer.

If this scenario is correct then Pass, Lathum and Katy's votes really look suspect.

I'm afraid that's about all the interest I have in putting in analysis today as it pretty much rests with Venkman anyway. Were I Venkman I'd think about lynching Bhlloy but probably go with the majority view and target Katy. Or bottle out and cross the streams.

Unvote fontisian
vote Katy

[Narcizo]

Venkman if you're around at deadline then you might not have to use your duke ability if you like the voting result. The threat of the duke should prevent last minute wolfish shenanighans and you should be able to give a conditional order in case they do try something.

If I had the courage of my convictions I would lynch bhlloy. But I know that my convictions have pretty much failed me all game through. I'm better at the logical, tactical side of things than the actual "finding wolfy" part.

[Narcizo]

For what it's worth I don't think Autumn is Peck anymore as he would have claimed to be the seer if he were. I'm not actually convinced that Peck is in the game. Maybe four wolves and the convertees don't have PM rights with the wolfies or know who they are, or only know one of their identities (the one who converted them). Who knows. Interesting to see after the game.

[JAG]

KatyLied 4 - Chubby (1360), Autumn (1383), mauchow (1384), Narcizo (1392)
Narcizo 2 - fontisian (1371), bhlloy (1378)
Lathum 1 - KatyLied (1361)

[Narcizo]

Nah bugger it.

unvote Katylied
vote bhlloy

[Narcizo]

I'll see if people want to follow me. If not I'll switch back to Katy but I'm getting a bad feeling about voting her. Maybe bhlloy was trying to make sure that we went villager-villager by voting me. Still at least Venkman can sort out our mess. No pressure, like.

[Autumn]

That's good analysis on the vote there, Narc. That would be a tight bind if bhlloy is a wolf, and I can see Packer not wanting to pile onto Zinto just in case. Figuring if a seer reveals or people are convinced he's a wolf they're going to want to vote against him, not with him. Not iron proof, but something else. Unfortunately we have too many something else's.

I go between thinking we're being led by the nose to Katy, and then kicking myself that we didn't lynch her last time. I know I would be really annoyed if it turned out she was a wolf and we kept letting her slip by. But I"ll probably be just as frustrated if we've been chasing a villager all this time.

[Lathum]

Trying to figure out why Katylied hasn't moved her vote yet.

[Autumn]

She likes to vote last second, it seems. Or just leave her vote to dry.

I just read back through yesterday's voting. It's very possible it was villager-villager and so there's nothing there. But I think it's also possible that mau and bhlloy had their votes on zinto and couldn't really do more than that. Pass missed deadline, so it's hard to know how to read that.

That basically means I don't know if Katy is our best vote, but it's a solid one. It would be great earlier in the game where we'd at least clear things up, but it's hard not having a definite sense this late in the game. I'll hopefully be home before deadline to reevaluate.