Werewolf CLX - Atlantic City - GAME OVER

[mauchow]

I've got some money left so I can hopefully win a bid.

And hopefully the services will all be available again.

[The Jackal]

Decisions, decisions.

[The Jackal]

I'll echo what has been said that it would be great to hear more from CR, and CW too. I know CW has been around some the past couple of days, but he said he was going to do a vote analysis and then kinda dropped off. I want to go look at JAG's long, awesome post from the other day.

[Narcizo]

d1 Path votes Zinto but moves it pretty quickly to Bullet after Coffee and DV bump 2 others up to 2 votes. His vote is next to fontisian's there - I think Path is a big old skool and wouldn't want to have his vote next to a teammate so that's a minor plus.

d2 Path votes mau one over DV claiming mau was being too defensive. I don't think he's around for the reveals. Pretty neutral in my opinion but then I thought mau was being a bit suspicious as well.

d3 Sorry we're not really going to glean much from this, I don't think. Puts murra5y up and then switches to DT. However I like his reasoning there and that's enough to get him a slight plus from me.

I think Path would have to be playing a very un-pathlike game to be the wolf. I remember him as being far more cautious as a wolf than he has played here. Of course it was a long time ago and he can have changed. But I still tend towards him being village.

[Narcizo]

Jackal, unless you're pretty sure about someone I don't think you should use the kill. Use the kill and we only have another night to work with. Assuming we're allowed to vote no lynch then if you don't use the kill we get two nights to work with, and a smaller field to decide from. I think the wolf can outbid us on one service (or two) but he can't outbid all of us.

[Autumn]

Bets due in 15 minutes

[The Jackal]

I'm definitely not sure, so I'll abstain.

[Narcizo]

No Lynch rule, Autumn?

[The Jackal]

Yes, that would be good to know before I abstain.

[Narcizo]

Don't forget to bet if you haven't already anyone reading.

[Narcizo]

CR and CW will have to wait.

[The Jackal]

Guess we aren't going to find out about no lynch, but I instructed the hitman to kill the last mafioso. I don't think that's going to work though.

[Autumn]

No lynch is an acceptable vote, yes.

[The Jackal]

Good.

[Autumn]

Everyone can't scramble out of bed fast enough this morning, those who could even get to sleep. You open the papers, worrying about what you might find--the city has grown dangerously tense. It seems there's nothing to report though, just more talk about yesterday's events.

[mauchow]

Okay. 5-1 still then. Hopefully not 4-2.

That's a decent move by jackal to buy more trust if he's the final mafia. He probably bought two days which is enough to win..and woukd be one of the biggest upset comebacks of all time.

[Narcizo]

Yeah. I was kind of expecting that. The wolf got all my cash. I had been hoping I'd be left with something. I'll just work out how much I had.

[Narcizo]

I think they got somewhere around $1562. I sent $2,200 to DV.

Were it not for winning 896 the wolf would barely have recouped their outlay. Of course, leaving me with nothing is a much better result for them.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mauchow

Okay. 5-1 still then. Hopefully not 4-2.

That's a decent move by jackal to buy more trust if he's the final mafia. He probably bought two days which is enough to win..and woukd be one of the biggest upset comebacks of all time.

I'm obviously not a stone cold lock villager, but I'm not sure what else you want from me.. you've been laying the seeds for wanting to vote me for a couple of days in a row now.

[The Jackal]

Only good news is by not using the NK I think I/we may have avoided repercussions from me buying it.

[Narcizo]

I'm as vanilla as they come now.

[The Jackal]

But believe me mau, I understand. If I was on the outside looking at me I'd be paranoid about me playing an epic wolf game too. I think I'm too cautious as a wolf to play that kind of game.

[The Jackal]

I wish I had something substantial to vote on. Like I said last night, whomever gets my vote will have had to defy the rules in some way .. which makes picking which was the most likeliest defiance a real guessing/speculation game.

[Narcizo]

So Chief and Coffee - care to share (at least) your bidding history?

[Autumn]

DAY NINE SERVICES FOR HIRE
Mick "Stones" McGee - Hired muscle for the guy who wants some protection
Donna Black Investigations - When you need somebody checked out
Cookie's Ladies - Send somebody a "friend" to entertain them through the night
Sandy Back Messenger Service - When you need to send a message fast
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - When you want to send a buck to a friend

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - money lending for the desperate gambler
Nicky the Trigger, hitman - they say that Nicky will make a guy disappear for you
"Stumpy" Jones, thug - this guy delivers a lesson with his fists, one it takes a while to recover from

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So Chief and Coffee - care to share (at least) your bidding history?

Yes this needs to happen ASAP - the less you reveal the more wolfy you guys are looking. Path never said he was forced to vote the other night, but maybe faking a vote was one of the bonuses they got from villagers bidding on black market services. Again, speculation.

[The Jackal]

That's good that there are the regular services available again, I apologize for not thinking ahead and leaving myself with $0.

[The Jackal]

Still, the mafia is going to want/need to bid on the hitman, so we should really coordinate bids to make sure that we get use out of donna, mick, and cookie.

[The Jackal]

And Narc you also have $0? Crap.

[Coffee Warlord]

Sigh. Wish you woulda used it. Waste of a day now.

And Narc, as I said before, I've only won the two bids. The hitman and the cheapo ladies bid. I bid on the seer day 1, that find a friend service sometime in there, the casino manager a couple of times, and I threw a bid on the seer for kicks in there too.

I've won exactly 2 bets. And made just under 300 bucks total from them. Financial mogul I am not.

As far as vote analysis not happening yesterday goes, two reasons. One, I came to the conclusion it was somewhat worthless at this point - we haven't had a real contested vote in days, and I still back my logic on the bidding breakdown. Two is real life - I have a major project going on at work, and so I can't focus much on here.

And as I've said for a couple of days now. Somehow, someway, the NK from a couple days ago has to be accounted for. The people who could have done that are few in number. Figure out how that's NOT the most logical route, and let me know.

[Narcizo]

Can't remember if Path claimed if he access his money today or not but otherwise that leaves mau, CW and CR who ought to be able to make bids.

[Coffee Warlord]

And yes. My bidding history isn't detailed, for a simple, horribly lazy reason - I was highly remiss in naming them in the subject line, and have very little motivation to dig through my sent mail.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

And Narc, as I said before, I've only won the two bids. The hitman and the cheapo ladies bid. I bid on the seer day 1, that find a friend service sometime in there, the casino manager a couple of times, and I threw a bid on the seer for kicks in there too.

Go to your PM sent box and see which bids and bets you made each day. How hard is that to do? Unless you've erased them?

[Coffee Warlord]

But, I'm going to reiterate. Unless DV fucked us and bid on one of the services and didn't tell us, and a wolf claimed it in his place, my broken record ass can't move my focus away from path (and I suppose mau if the ladies somehow didn't work).

[Narcizo]

How do you explain Jackal scanning Path as good?

[Coffee Warlord]

I really wish I could just lynch you today, Narc. But I'd be going against my own line of thinking.

Bets:
D0 DaddyTorgo
D1 DT & JAG
D2 Brit & Jackal
D3 DT & Brit
D4 Brit & Murray
D5 Murray
D6 Brit & CR
D7 Mau & Path

Bids
D1 Seer (307)
D2 Casino Manager (51)
D3 Friends for Life (201)
D4 Hitman (1000)
D5 Casino Manager (273)
D6 Seer (273)
D7 Ladies (1)

[Coffee Warlord]

THAT TOOK ENERGY.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

How do you explain Jackal scanning Path as good?

I can't, unless there's a cunning.

Both possible candidates who could have used the NK, with what we know, have problems.

If it was path, there's a cunning. If it was mau, the ladies didn't work and I didn't get any message about it.

If it was neither, well, fuckit.

[Narcizo]

Autumn - if someone is lynched is their bid removed from the table. I've been presuming that that's the case but I want to make sure

[Narcizo]

Urgh! This is doing my head in.

[Autumn]

Yes.

[Coffee Warlord]

I have one alternate supposition for mau over path.

Remember I got the 'you gotta do the mob a favor' PM when I bought the hitman. I wonder if that favor manifested in mau being unaffected by the ladies.

[mauchow]

I got three lovely chicks that night CW. I didn't even win/submit a bid that day.

[path12]

As I mentioned last night I am leaving in a few minutes for the weekend.

My account has been emptied overnight and a note left telling me basically I better vote how I'm told -- but I wasn't told who so I am just going to use Occam's Razor and pick one of the unscanned people:

VOTE COFFEE WARLORD

It's been fun guys.

[The Jackal]

So I think it's safe to assume Path's vote is going to be manipulated by the mafia.

[mauchow]

My gut feelings tell me jackal or cw. CW is unscanned like myself so I won't be surprised if it comes down to myself and him. But part of me says no way to vote for cw since I know he sent me the ladies the night there was a kill so unless we believe there were two bids put in by him... he's not the way to go either.

That still leaves jackal and chief...chief has been as quiet as I've ever seen him.

[mauchow]

And path too..

[mauchow]

And that leaves open the idea that there could have been a converted villager to mafia... that sounds awfully tough to overcome.

[mauchow]

I'm putting all my money into the bg today I think.

[mauchow]

vote jackal

I'm gonna go this way for now. I think for me it will be this or path..